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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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The funny thing about that quote is how the first line goes, "Mr. Romney criticized Mr. Gingrich for making a disparaging remark about Palestinians." I was like, oh hey, Romney's being a half decent human being. Then the next line is like, nope, he's just being the ultimate pandering sleazebag we all know and love.

Mr Romney criticized Mr Gingrich for making disparaging remark about Palestinians, declaring: "before i make that statement, I'd get on the phone with my friend Bibi and ask him if I can make a disparaging remark about Palestinians"
 
It'll be funny watching liberal bloggers attempt to revive that stuff as regular Americans move on. "Hey remember Planned Parenthood and the 10k bet!!!?"
The horror of trying to remind voters what this man said to get elected, underscoring the fact that he can't be trusted (re: Planned Parenthood).

Besides: The Obama campaign will be doing more than enough to remind voters.
 
http://m.apnews.mobi/ap/db_6776/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=Q8xO1hFb

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE83808A20120409?irpc=932

Iran's nuclear talks are coming up this week. Long story short:
*Iran insists on no preconditions.
*Iran is apparently proposing that nrichment will continue at 20% until a sufficient amount is stockpiled for medical/research uses. Then enrichment will be winded down back to 3.5%.
*The US wants them to also shut down the underground facilities at Qom.

I personally expected a compromise to be reached before the summer so now I guess we'll see if that engine turns over.

For Obama, he just needs to find a compromise that can't be used against him in debates. I don't think you can effectively mud sling on something as complicated as middle east policy in a campaign ad but a debate is a good place for Romney to have false bravado about how he would have handled the situation.

Let me get this straight. Iran is the most dangerous rogue nation OF ALL TIME. They're mere moments away from getting a nuclear weapon, meaning we have to strike as soon as possible or face the destruction of Israel. It's only a matter of time before -

Abbasi said Tehran could stop its production of 20 percent enriched uranium needed for a research reactor, and continue enriching uranium to lower levels for power generation.

This could take place once Iran has stockpiled enough of the 20 percent enriched uranium, Abbasi told state TV. The 20 percent enriched material can be used for medical research and treatments.


The enrichment issue lies at the core of the dispute between Iran and the West, which fears Tehran is seeking an atomic weapon - a charge the country denies, insisting its uranium program is for peaceful purposes only.

Uranium has to be enriched to more than 90 percent to be used for a nuclear weapon, but with Iran enriching uranium to 20 percent levels, there are concerns it has come a step closer to nuclear weapons capability
.
http://m.apnews.mobi/ap/db_6776/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=Q8xO1hFb

You've got to be shitting me.
 

Jackson50

Member
http://m.apnews.mobi/ap/db_6776/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=Q8xO1hFb

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE83808A20120409?irpc=932

Iran's nuclear talks are coming up this week. Long story short:
*Iran insists on no preconditions.
*Iran is apparently proposing that nrichment will continue at 20% until a sufficient amount is stockpiled for medical/research uses. Then enrichment will be winded down back to 3.5%.
*The US wants them to also shut down the underground facilities at Qom.

I personally expected a compromise to be reached before the summer so now I guess we'll see if that engine turns over.

For Obama, he just needs to find a compromise that can't be used against him in debates. I don't think you can effectively mud sling on something as complicated as middle east policy in a campaign ad but a debate is a good place for Romney to have false bravado about how he would have handled the situation.
There's scant reason for optimism. Our opening bid was fairly transparent. We're requesting they suspend enrichment and close Furrow. That's not a reasonable opening request. Iran's invested considerably in constructing and securing its facilities. It would be utterly foolish and humiliating for them to accede. And given that negotiations have been historically fruitless, I doubt this constitutes a proposal in good faith from which the parties can engender a compromise. Instead, it's a quixotic gambit which the U.S. thinks it can leverage the economic pressure on Iran to coerce total capitulation. And it's likely going to fail.
Let me get this straight. Iran is the most dangerous rogue nation OF ALL TIME. They're mere moments away from getting a nuclear weapon, meaning we have to strike as soon as possible or face the destruction of Israel. It's only a matter of time before -


http://m.apnews.mobi/ap/db_6776/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=Q8xO1hFb

You've got to be shitting me.
The notion that we must preventively strike Iran is not predicated on them posing an immediate threat. Rather, it's based on the belief we must prevent Iran from becoming even a latent threat. This mentality which pervaded the Bush Administration and is encapsulated in his 2002 NSS, is still the M.O. of many Republicans.
The United States has long maintained the option of preemptive actions to counter a sufficient threat to our national security. The greater the threat, the greater is the risk of inaction – and the more compelling the case for taking anticipatory action to defend ourselves, even if uncertainty remains as to the time and place of the enemy's attack. To forestall or prevent such hostile acts by our adversaries, the United States will, if necessary, act preemptively.
 
You've got to be shitting me.
No offense but that has been the narrative for years. I remember from the very beginning every single news report made it seem like 20% WAS nuclear bomb grade material and they just had to load that shit up and light the fuse. It's just sad how nobody in the media has been doing a decent job at reporting on Iran even after everyone fucked up with Iraq.
 
The notion that we must preventively strike Iran is not predicated on them posing an immediate threat. Rather, it's based on the belief we must prevent Iran from becoming even a latent threat. This mentality which pervaded the Bush Administration and is encapsulated in his 2002 NSS, is still the M.O. of many Republicans.

I don't think it has anything to do with Iran being a threat, immediate or latent. It is strictly to maintain Western power to act in the region unimpeded. A nuclear Iran limits the ability of the West to do as it pleases in the region. Threats to safety don't even come into play at all, although of course its actions will always be couched in those terms. No government is going to announce that it is willing to risk its citizens lives to ensure that it has the power to continue to oppress and exploit others for the well-being of its economic elite.
 

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
No offense but that has been the narrative for years. I remember from the very beginning every single news report made it seem like 20% WAS nuclear bomb grade material and they just had to load that shit up and light the fuse. It's just sad how nobody in the media has been doing a decent job at reporting on Iran even after everyone fucked up with Iraq.

I think the fear was that the percentage kept going up. If they are serious about this proposal, that should allay most people's fears. This is a pretty good development. It would be amazing if Obama is able to come to some sort of reasonable agreement with them, it would take the bite out of some of the Republican's fearmongering.
 

Jackson50

Member
I don't think it has anything to do with Iran being a threat, immediate or latent. It is strictly to maintain Western power to act in the region unimpeded. A nuclear Iran limits the ability of the West to do as it pleases in the region. Threats to safety don't even come into play at all, although of course its actions will always be couched in those terms. No government is going to announce that it is willing to risk its citizens lives to ensure that it has the power to continue to oppress and exploit others for the well-being of its economic elite.
Our analyses are not necessarily conflictual. I did not specify what Iran threatened; I only referenced the NSS to exemplify. But whether it's economic, political, or security interests, the logic of a preventive strike is to prevent Iran from developing the ability to threaten U.S. interests. I agree that Iran wouldn't pose a threat to national security. Rather, it's to obviate a potential threat to regional hegemony.
 
Our analyses are not necessarily conflictual. I did not specify what Iran threatened; I only referenced the NSS to exemplify. But whether it's economic, political, or security interests, the logic of a preventive strike is to prevent Iran from developing the ability to threaten U.S. interests. I agree that Iran wouldn't pose a threat to national security. Rather, it's to obviate a potential threat to regional hegemony.

Agreed.
 
I think the fear was that the percentage kept going up. If they are serious about this proposal, that should allay most people's fears. This is a pretty good development. It would be amazing if Obama is able to come to some sort of reasonable agreement with them, it would take the bite out of some of the Republican's fearmongering.

Story time. There was a continuous 20 hr nonstop negotiation between Iran, Brazil and Turkey in May of 2010 which resulted in a deal that would have Iran ship its enriched Uranium to Brazil in exchange for fuel rods needed in medical research, which eliminates all the fears of Iran maybe enriching past 20%. This was Turkey's show all the way and they brokered the deal. In exchange for the fuel swap deal between Iran and Brazil under the auspices of UN, Turkey would make sure no global powers will impose sanctions on Iran. Behind closed doors, US assured Turkey that if Iran went with the deal, they would promise to not bring up sanctions at UN. This would've resulted in no more economic sanctions EVER and Iran would never be able to develop a Nuclear bomb. After the marathon negotiations, all three parties signed the deal and a secret handshake between Turkey and US. Probably one of the greatest international successes by non US entities.

Ijt2O.jpg


Within hours, Hillary Clinton made a statement that the Iran-Brazil-Turkey deal was "not satisfactory". Few days later, the west imposed toughest economic sanctions on Iran yet and the deal went kaput. Welcome to US foreign policy. By the way, as the deal was on-going, Obama was at AIPAC.
 
Story time. There was a continuous 20 hr nonstop negotiation between Iran, Brazil and Turkey in May of 2010 which resulted in a deal that would have Iran ship its enriched Uranium to Brazil in exchange for fuel rods needed in medical research, which eliminates all the fears of Iran maybe enriching past 20%. This was Turkey's show all the way and they brokered the deal. In exchange for the fuel swap deal between Iran and Brazil under the auspices of UN, Turkey would make sure no global powers will impose sanctions on Iran. Behind closed doors, US assured Turkey that if Iran went with the deal, they would promise to not bring up sanctions at UN. This would've resulted in no more economic sanctions EVER and Iran would never be able to develop a Nuclear bomb. After the marathon negotiations, all three parties signed the deal and a secret handshake between Turkey and US. Probably one of the greatest international successes by non US entities.

Ijt2O.jpg


Within hours, Hillary Clinton made a statement that the Iran-Brazil-Turkey deal was "not satisfactory". Few days later, the west imposed toughest economic sanctions on Iran yet and the deal went kaput. Welcome to US foreign policy. By the way, as the deal was on-going, Obama was at AIPAC.
Ah, I never knew what became of that. Thanks!
 
It'll be funny watching liberal bloggers attempt to revive that stuff as regular Americans move on. "Hey remember Planned Parenthood and the 10k bet!!!?"
Obama will run ads about Planned Parenthood and birth control, I guarantee you that.

But mostly, it'll be ads highlighting his hypocrisy and flip-flopping, which is already well-known amongst "regular Americans."

The only presidential candidate to have lower favorable ratings at this point before the election was Bill Clinton. And unfortunately for Romney, there's no Ross Perot-esque candidate to throw a wrench in the two-party system. Romney himself is a shit candidate and will only win if the world collapses beneath Obama's feet. Obama himself is a strong candidate.
 
The deal wasn't done to appease Israel's neocon leaders. It was done to remove Iran from the economic and trade sanctions, and also allay fears of Iranian Bomb once and for all.
Perhaps it says more about me than it does about news reporting in general, but the first time I heard about that story was on the Daily Show. I don't know how heavily it was reported back at the time, but I'd like to believe that I would have known about this if it had been...
 

markatisu

Member
Obama will run ads about Planned Parenthood and birth control, I guarantee you that.

But mostly, it'll be ads highlighting his hypocrisy and flip-flopping, which is already well-known amongst "regular Americans."

The only presidential candidate to have lower favorable ratings at this point before the election was Bill Clinton. And unfortunately for Romney, there's no Ross Perot-esque candidate to throw a wrench in the two-party system. Romney himself is a shit candidate and will only win if the world collapses beneath Obama's feet. Obama himself is a strong candidate.

Bill Clinton also had charisma and connected with voters....Romney is a wooden robot
 
No deal is going to be acceptable to Israel's current leadership. Why bother anyway with these negotiations.

Somewhat irrelevant considering they aren't driving the bus. If a decent deal can be reached where Iran stops their nuclear "escalation" (I know, I know..) in exchange for easing sanctions, that's a win. But Israel isn't looking for a win considering so much of their relevance is based on pretending to be a feckless child in fetal position, in need of defense and a Stand Your Ground right lest the wind blow them away. They want to provoke something, and I wouldn't be surprised if they loudly express displeasure in any negotiations
 

Al-ibn Kermit

Junior Member
There's scant reason for optimism. Our opening bid was fairly transparent. We're requesting they suspend enrichment and close Furrow. That's not a reasonable opening request. Iran's invested considerably in constructing and securing its facilities. It would be utterly foolish and humiliating for them to accede. And given that negotiations have been historically fruitless, I doubt this constitutes a proposal in good faith from which the parties can engender a compromise. Instead, it's a quixotic gambit which the U.S. thinks it can leverage the economic pressure on Iran to coerce total capitulation. And it's likely going to fail.
Scuttling the deal at this point would backfire and make the US (specifically the Obama administration) look stupid and show that the theory of using sanctions effectively failed since they weren't able to get Iran to agree to anything . Finally allowing air strikes after months of saying it's not necessary is the last thing Obama wants, there is no way to spin that into a victory. Romney will just tear him to shreds with it every chance he gets.

I don't know if it's too optimistic, but I think what will happen is that the Obama administration will let Iran keep all of it's current facilities with the agreement that they have 24 hour a day monitoring. And that Iran must immediately stop all enrichment above 5%. If they want to get more 20% enriched uranium, they would have to get it from Turkey or somewhere that both Iran and the West trust to be an honest and reliable supplier.

I don't think it's likely that Iran or the Obama administration would prefer to have no deal rather than that deal, which they both would hate but could still live with.
 
Obama opposes Minnesota marriage amendment: http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/04/obama-opposes-minnesotas-gay-marriage-amendment.php

Still evolving, wink wink, etc.

Shouldn't it be devolving? He supported gay marriage while running for state office in Ill, then flip flopped to advance his national political career. And of course once he's finished with his "last election" on the first Wednesday in November (assuming he wins) I'd imagine he'll quickly come out in support of gay marriage again. How anyone could label that anything except cowardly is beyond me.
 
Shouldn't it be devolving? He supported gay marriage while running for state office in Ill, then flip flopped to advance his national political career. And of course once he's finished with his "last election" on the first Wednesday in November (assuming he wins) I'd imagine he'll quickly come out in support of gay marriage again. How anyone could label that anything except cowardly is beyond me.
It would be "devolving" if he came out and campaigned against it.
 

Jackson50

Member
Scuttling the deal at this point would backfire and make the US (specifically the Obama administration) look stupid and show that the theory of using sanctions effectively failed since they weren't able to get Iran to agree to anything . Finally allowing air strikes after months of saying it's not necessary is the last thing Obama wants, there is no way to spin that into a victory. Romney will just tear him to shreds with it every chance he gets.

I don't know if it's too optimistic, but I think what will happen is that the Obama administration will let Iran keep all of it's current facilities with the agreement that they have 24 hour a day monitoring. And that Iran must immediately stop all enrichment above 5%. If they want to get more 20% enriched uranium, they would have to get it from Turkey or somewhere that both Iran and the West trust to be an honest and reliable supplier.

I don't think it's likely that Iran or the Obama administration would prefer to have no deal rather than that deal, which they both would hate but could still live with.
U.S. temerity has inured it to embarrassment. We are not averse to appearing foolish. That's a hallmark of American foreign policy. Also, there's hardly even a framework from which to proceed, so the costs of failure are inconsiderable. Additionally, the ship sailed on sanctions a while ago. North Korea doused that hope. Moreover, the implications of present negotiations regarding sanctions are indistinguishable from previous negotiations, yet the former failed spectacularly. Why are present negotiations unique? Certainly, there's a temporal component. Yet unless we've approached an unforeseen threshold, there's no discernible impetus for the U.S. to preserve the efficacy of sanctions. Rather, the probable outcome is the maintenance of sanctions with a request for even more stringent sanctions. Consequently, a military strike is not germane. The choice is not binary. Fruitless negotiations does not entail a military strike. Rather, as I noted, failure only perpetuates the status quo. And that has proved tenable to all parties. Further, I think the U.S. is convinced that sanctions have crippled Iran; there's a modicum of validity to that premise. So I doubt they'll favor compromise. Rather, they're going to insist on unconditional acquiescence. Otherwise, they'll wait for the sanctions to totally debilitate the country.

Essentially, your argument applies to previous negotiations, yet they failed. And the calculus has not changed. I expect an identical outcome.
Obama will run ads about Planned Parenthood and birth control, I guarantee you that.

But mostly, it'll be ads highlighting his hypocrisy and flip-flopping, which is already well-known amongst "regular Americans."

The only presidential candidate to have lower favorable ratings at this point before the election was Bill Clinton. And unfortunately for Romney, there's no Ross Perot-esque candidate to throw a wrench in the two-party system. Romney himself is a shit candidate and will only win if the world collapses beneath Obama's feet. Obama himself is a strong candidate.
Almost. Carter and Bush 41 had lower approval ratings than Obama at this juncture. Also, their respective trajectories were decidedly negative whereas Obama's has been consistent. He's clearly in a more favorable position than both were at this juncture.
I knew you would. You're pretty smart.
 

Al-ibn Kermit

Junior Member
U.S. temerity has inured it to embarrassment. We are not averse to appearing foolish. That's a hallmark of American foreign policy. Also, there's hardly even a framework from which to proceed, so the costs of failure are inconsiderable. Additionally, the ship sailed on sanctions a while ago. North Korea doused that hope. Moreover, the implications of present negotiations regarding sanctions are indistinguishable from previous negotiations, yet the former failed spectacularly. Why are present negotiations unique? Certainly, there's a temporal component. Yet unless we've approached an unforeseen threshold, there's no discernible impetus for the U.S. to preserve the efficacy of sanctions. Rather, the probable outcome is the maintenance of sanctions with a request for even more stringent sanctions. Consequently, a military strike is not germane. The choice is not binary. Fruitless negotiations does not entail a military strike. Rather, as I noted, failure only perpetuates the status quo. And that has proved tenable to all parties. Further, I think the U.S. is convinced that sanctions have crippled Iran; there's a modicum of validity to that premise. So I doubt they'll favor compromise. Rather, they're going to insist on unconditional acquiescence. Otherwise, they'll wait for the sanctions to totally debilitate the country.
Well let's just call that the worst case scenario.

Two problems with such a plan is that Israel keeps making threats of a preemptive stirkes, which of course could be totally hollow, and that Iran could find other customers for their oil. Assuming they do, and their economy stabilizes, the best opportunity to get any type of compromise/drawback of nuclear capabilities is gone.

It is obvious that Iran finds value in having the infrastructure and know how to potentially make and deploy a nuke. Just being able to make a nuclear weapon serves as a deterrent. If you want to control Iran's power in the region, it might be more effective to cease the sanctions in return for Iran giving up any hope of getting a nuclear weapon. The scenario you outlined seems too uncertain.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Guys, I'll be meeting up with 2 members of the African American KKK later this week,
Tavis Smiley and Cornel West.

Anything y'all would like me to ask them?
 

Gruco

Banned
Trust me, most people in this state hate this mans guts but nobody is willing to spend the money to take him on. He had one challenger in the previous election and he trolled her by not even showing up to debates
Comment to this + last week's this American life regarding money in American politics.

Sort of shows how regardless of how much politicians hate being forced to constantly beg for money, there's a good reason there is no groundswell of support for putting more restrictions on money in politics. It serves as a form of incumbency job protection, because it's the one thing they're able to do that most people aren't (or aren't willing to).
 
Story time. There was a continuous 20 hr nonstop negotiation between Iran, Brazil and Turkey in May of 2010 which resulted in a deal that would have Iran ship its enriched Uranium to Brazil in exchange for fuel rods needed in medical research, which eliminates all the fears of Iran maybe enriching past 20%. This was Turkey's show all the way and they brokered the deal. In exchange for the fuel swap deal between Iran and Brazil under the auspices of UN, Turkey would make sure no global powers will impose sanctions on Iran. Behind closed doors, US assured Turkey that if Iran went with the deal, they would promise to not bring up sanctions at UN. This would've resulted in no more economic sanctions EVER and Iran would never be able to develop a Nuclear bomb. After the marathon negotiations, all three parties signed the deal and a secret handshake between Turkey and US. Probably one of the greatest international successes by non US entities.

Ijt2O.jpg


Within hours, Hillary Clinton made a statement that the Iran-Brazil-Turkey deal was "not satisfactory". Few days later, the west imposed toughest economic sanctions on Iran yet and the deal went kaput. Welcome to US foreign policy. By the way, as the deal was on-going, Obama was at AIPAC.
WTF? Source?
 
Comment to this + last week's this American life regarding money in American politics.

Sort of shows how regardless of how much politicians hate being forced to constantly beg for money, there's a good reason there is no groundswell of support for putting more restrictions on money in politics. It serves as a form of incumbency job protection, because it's the one thing they're able to do that most people aren't (or aren't willing to).

That's why it's going to take a serious organized political effort to reform the system. Politicians respond to votes over money, but they have to "feel" the votes first. And to make them feel the votes, you have to be organized, in streets, loud, and persistent. Voting in periodic elections, alone, isn't going to cut it.
 
Guys, I'll be meeting up with 2 members of the African American KKK later this week,
Tavis Smiley and Cornel West.

Anything y'all would like me to ask them?

Please congratulate Cornel West on getting tenure at Princeton. And tell him to keep appearing on real Time with Bill Maher where he dispenses great wisdom. (And that is coming from an atheist.)
 
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