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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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T

tranciful

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
GDP%20growth.jpg


Now then...come on America. you know what to do!
Click to expand...

What does 'real' mean in this graph? I'd like to be able to cite the graph, but want to make sure it's not spinning things.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
tranciful said:
What does 'real' mean in this graph? I'd like to be able to cite the graph, but want to make sure it's not spinning things.
Click to expand...

Typically the term "real GDP" refers to GDP adjusted for the contribution that inflation had toward the increase in economic output. If you have 2% inflation, that does not contribute to the GDP reading as growth. It's the same GDP we commonly read about being reported.

I've seen variations of this chart for many years, IIRC it's well supported by the data.
 
C

Clevinger

Member
Oblivion said:
http://wonkette.com/469354/if-this-...-hed-still-have-his-bike#more-469354?tw_p=twt

Thought this was amusing. Summary: Daily Caller writer is apparently over his "White guilt" after he got his bike stolen, by living in a predominantly black neighborhood. He doesn't have any proof that it was one of "them" that did it, but hey come on!
Click to expand...

I never really got the Tucker Carlson hate until this Trayvon Martin thing. I mean, he always seemed like a bow-tie wearing dweeb and a shitty conservative pundit, but whatever, that's a fish in the sea. But now, holy shit, fuck this little weasel and his horrid site.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
WaPo poll

Obama's approval is 50/45, on the economy it's 44/54 (still not great, but a net 10 points higher than last month's)

Obama leads Romney 51-44

But he's barely breaking 50 so he's doomed

But in all seriousness the electoral college will probably be a repeat of 2008, more or less. Maybe swap out Indiana for Arizona. The economy's improving and Romney has the charisma of a sack of potatoes.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Aaron Strife said:
But in all seriousness the electoral college will probably be a repeat of 2008, more or less. Maybe swap out Indiana for Arizona. The economy's improving and Romney has the charisma of a sack of potatoes.
Click to expand...

It is not just that. The fact that we run $1Trillion deficits, he pays 13.9% taxes on $20Million, AND wants to cut his taxes . . . but thinks he is "fiscally conservative" is just so "WTF"? Do words have meaning?
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
speculawyer said:
It is not just that. The fact that we run $1Trillion deficits, he pays 13.9% taxes on $20Million, AND wants to cut his taxes . . . but thinks he is "fiscally conservative" is just so "WTF"? Do words have meaning?
Click to expand...

Yeah, but I thought Santorum has your vote after quoting your avatar in a campaign ad.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Al-ibn Kermit said:
Well let's just call that the worst case scenario.

Two problems with such a plan is that Israel keeps making threats of a preemptive stirkes, which of course could be totally hollow, and that Iran could find other customers for their oil. Assuming they do, and their economy stabilizes, the best opportunity to get any type of compromise/drawback of nuclear capabilities is gone.

It is obvious that Iran finds value in having the infrastructure and know how to potentially make and deploy a nuke. Just being able to make a nuclear weapon serves as a deterrent. If you want to control Iran's power in the region, it might be more effective to cease the sanctions in return for Iran giving up any hope of getting a nuclear weapon. The scenario you outlined seems too uncertain.
Click to expand...
If that constitutes the worst-case scenario, I hope you're seated because that's the likely outcome. Israel has agitated for a while, so that's unlikely to impel a compromise as the threat is probably not considered especially credible. Further, if Iran were to find alternative consumers for oil, that would wholly circumvent the sanctions thereby eliminating any incentive to negotiate. Inexorably, we arrive at either the status quo or Iran becomes even more ensconced. Again, the prospects for fruitful negotiations are marginal.

I concur. Even if Iran has not hitherto decided to weaponize, which the intelligence indicates is the case, I think it's reasonable to assume they're interested in developing a latent capability. Consequently, Iran would not accede to American demands. That already invalidates negotiations. Further, I concur eliminating sanctions could be productive. The pursuit of a deterrence is predicated on vulnerability. And sanctions only amplify Iran's sense of vulnerability. It's counterproductive and illogical to attempt to compel a state to abandon its pursuit of defensive power by intensifying pressure. Again, that only exacerbates the sense of vulnerability. Rather, you want to convince a state it can gain more by compliance. And while this is inherently difficult, it's even more unlikely given the historical distrust which has plagued the relationship. Trust is integral to productive negotiations, and I don't see foresee that abating. Moreover, given our demands that Iran suspend enrichment and close Fordow, the U.S. does not appear interested in fostering trust and a compromise. Instead, it wants to leverage the sanctions for total capitulation. And if Iran scoffs, the U.S. will only double down.
speculawyer said:
It is not just that. The fact that we run $1Trillion deficits, he pays 13.9% taxes on $20Million, AND wants to cut his taxes . . . but thinks he is "fiscally conservative" is just so "WTF"? Do words have meaning?
Click to expand...
Words have meaning. Both denotative and connotative. Fiscal conservatism has become synonymous with cutting spending and taxes. Any semblance of actual GOP budgetary discipline died with the first Bush Administration.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
WaPo poll

Obama's approval is 50/45, on the economy it's 44/54 (still not great, but a net 10 points higher than last month's)

Obama leads Romney 51-44

But he's barely breaking 50 so he's doomed

But in all seriousness the electoral college will probably be a repeat of 2008, more or less. Maybe swap out Indiana for Arizona. The economy's improving and Romney has the charisma of a sack of potatoes.
Click to expand...

I haven't seen a poll that suggests Obama is close in Arizona. That being said, I do believe there's a chance he carries it if Hispanics show up in force
 
H

Hawkian

The Cryptarch's Bane
RMh6h.jpg

For ease of reading. Wow, some interesting numbers here to be sure.

Still, I predict a close election and nothing else.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
I haven't seen a poll that suggests Obama is close in Arizona. That being said, I do believe there's a chance he carries it if Hispanics show up in force
Click to expand...
PPP's last poll of Arizona had him tied there 47-47.

I'm positive if not for McCain's home state status, Obama would have contested AZ in 2008 and probably won.

It's not a lock, or necessary for him to win. The biggest advantage it'd have is giving Carmona a boost in the Senate race, as well as letting the Democrats have a shot at winning the State Senate.
 
G

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
Hawkian said:
RMh6h.jpg

For ease of reading. Wow, some interesting numbers here to be sure.

Still, I predict a close election and nothing else.
Click to expand...

It is absolutley astunding that even after the deepwater oil crisis and the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression, 37% of the country still thinks over-regulation is a problem, never mind a bigger problem than an unfair economy that encourages rising inequality instead of shared prosperity.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
GaimeGuy said:
It is absolutley astunding that even after the deepwater oil crisis and the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression, 37% of the country still thinks over-regulation is a problem, never mind a bigger problem than an unfair economy that encourages rising inequality instead of shared prosperity.
Click to expand...
Conservative dogma is rejecting reality and facts. It's equivalent to a child plugging their ears and singing "NA NA NA NA NA NA, I CAN'T HEAR YOU" and doing counter-productive things out of spite for liberals. "Annoy a liberal" is their rallying call.
 
H

Hawkian

The Cryptarch's Bane
quadriplegicjon said:
Obama is more friendly and likable? Weren't a few people in here arguing that he wasn't personable?


What is Romney's energy policy by the way? I have no idea. Is it just basically drill baby drill?
Click to expand...
Essentially, yes. He seems to oppose all alternative energy sources and allocating money for their research, although to a less boisterous extent than Rush Limbaugh.

What gets me are these two:
ig2KD.png

nf1l6.png


Handling whose economy, I guess? :-/
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Hawkian said:
Essentially, yes. He seems to oppose all alternative energy sources and allocating money for their research, although to a less boisterous extent than Rush Limbaugh.

What gets me are these two:
ig2KD.png

nf1l6.png


Handling whose economy, I guess? :-/
Click to expand...
There's a perception among the middle/lower class that the economy (at large) is run by the rich people, in stocks and trade and other things they don't understand. Like in movies whenever they show a crowded stock exchange of men in suits yelling, that's probably the image that comes to mind.

It's probably just statistical noise. If Obama's getting higher marks on helping the middle class, that's where the vote's going.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
WaPo poll

Obama's approval is 50/45, on the economy it's 44/54 (still not great, but a net 10 points higher than last month's)

Obama leads Romney 51-44

But he's barely breaking 50 so he's doomed

But in all seriousness the electoral college will probably be a repeat of 2008, more or less. Maybe swap out Indiana for Arizona. The economy's improving and Romney has the charisma of a sack of potatoes.
Click to expand...
national poll doesn't mean squat,
polls in battle ground states are the real polls that matter in an Electoral College rules elections
 
T

thezerofire

Banned
GaimeGuy said:
It is absolutley astunding that even after the deepwater oil crisis and the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression, 37% of the country still thinks over-regulation is a problem, never mind a bigger problem than an unfair economy that encourages rising inequality instead of shared prosperity.
Click to expand...
the justification that I've heard is that if there weren't regulations on where to drill, the oil rig would have been in much shallower water and so the whole crisis wouldn't have happened, basically
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
GOP Dream Of Hisanic VP May Be Fading

On Sunday, popular New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez (R), told the local Albuquerque Journal she did not want to be considered for the job. That’s hardly news on its own — lots of potential candidates deny interest before reversing themselves later — but she offered an explanation more personal and ironclad than most: She has a developmentally disabled sister in her custody and a father with Alzheimer’s, neither of whom she feels would benefit from her running.

“The family has to be a consideration, and for me to take (my sister) to Washington would be to separate her from … the family that’s down there, and that would be devastating,” Martinez told the Journal. “I just couldn’t do it.”

There are other options: Cuban-American Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) is a charismatic phenom and would lend Romney some conservative bona fides, and Mexican-American Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) is well-regarded in Nevada and has an impressive resume that also includes a stint as attorney general. Romney has praised both and mentioned their names as possible candidates for Cabinet positions should he win.

Sandoval, however, identifies as pro-choice, making him a difficult pick for any Republican — just ask John McCain, whose first choice of Joe Lieberman was scuttled for exactly that reason. Sandoval’s abortion position makes him an even more unlikely sidekick for Romney, who has struggled to quell social conservatives’ skepticism over his own late-life conversion to their cause. And that’s without getting into other issues: Sandoval broke a no-tax pledge as governor and his bright optimism on the economy even in worst-in-the-nation Nevada (he’s nicknamed “Gov. Sunny”) clashes with Romney’s gloom-and-doom message.

That leaves Rubio, the best known nationally of the bunch, as the GOP’s lone hope for a Hispanic running mate. But he’s repeatedly denied any interest. “I’m not going to be the vice president,” he said last week, shortly after endorsing Romney.

It’s an open question how seriously these denials should be taken — feigned lack of desire to abandon one’s constituents is de rigeur for potential veeps. But the forcefulness and the frequency of his denials is at least generating some skepticism that he’s a slam dunk to accept the position. Plenty of Republican heavyweights sat out the presidential race with an apparent eye toward 2016, and it’s possible Rubio may be biding his time as well.

While extremely popular with conservatives, Rubio also brings some vulnerabilities to the table: He’s young, largely untested on the national stage, and has a long voting record in the statehouse that could come under scrutiny. He has expressed past support for cap and trade, for example. Revelations that part of his family story as the child of Cuban immigrants, which he often touts on the trail, are inaccurate also has prompted some hand-wringing among the pundit class.
Click to expand...
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/04/gop-dream-of-hisanic-vp-may-be-fading.php?ref=fpnewsfeed

Didn't know Sandoval was pro-choice; that definitely scuttles his chances. Sounds like Martinez is also unlikely due to personal issues. Romney doesn't seem like one to take chances, but I could see him throwing the dice on Rubio given the potential reward (Florida)
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
gutter_trash said:
national poll doesn't mean squat,
polls in battle ground states are the real polls that matter in an Electoral College rules elections
Click to expand...

Yes and no. If the national poll gap is wide enough, there's no realistic electoral picture that would upset it. But yes, battleground state polls are much more directly important.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
gutter_trash said:
national poll doesn't mean squat,
polls in battle ground states are the real polls that matter in an Electoral College rules elections
Click to expand...
If Obama's winning by a 7 point margin, he's got this. Unless he's winning New York or California by such overwhelming margins it's inflating his vote total. His 2008 coalition is largely sticking together.

If you're only looking at the battleground states, Obama's still cleaning house. In fact, PPP literally just released their poll of Colorado. Obama's leading Romney by 13 points. This goes along with their poll of Nevada where Obama was leading Romney by 8 points. If Obama wins all the Kerry states along with Nevada/Colorado and Iowa (could be trouble, but generally votes Democratic) and New Mexico (safe Obama), he wins the election. The traditional battleground states of Florida and Ohio would just be icing on the cake.

I'm really having trouble seeing Obama losing under current circumstances.

Also, PPP just tweeted from their NC poll (probably out tomorrow) - Obama's losing men by 6 to Romney, but leading with women by 15. This probably translates to a 5 point lead or so.

GhaleonEB said:
Massachusetts Senate: Warren (D) 46%, Brown (R) 45%

Rasmussen, but it's in line with PPP's finding last month.
Click to expand...
But Warren's not resonating with MA voters!

Democrats probably have as good a chance at expanding their Senate majority as they do losing it. Probably, they'll win Mass and Nevada but lose Nebraska, while Angus King wins in Maine (and will probably caucus with the Democrats). I used to worry about Wisconsin but I think Baldwin's got it, especially if Obama wins the state by a large margin. Arizona and Indiana could also be on the table, AZ if Obama makes a serious play for it and drives up Hispanic turnout, IN if Lugar loses the primary.
 
G

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
thezerofire said:
the justification that I've heard is that if there weren't regulations on where to drill, the oil rig would have been in much shallower water and so the whole crisis wouldn't have happened, basically
Click to expand...

The problem didn't happen because they didn't drill in shallow waters, though. (which I'm sure you know, just pointing out how ridiculous that argument is)
 
F

Flying_Phoenix

Banned
Article on George W. Bush said:
The former president also told those gathered for his Bush Institute Conference on Taxes and Economic Growth that he wishes "the Bush tax cuts" were called something else, because they would be "less likely to be raised."
Click to expand...

LINK
 
D

DasRaven

Member
gutter_trash said:
national poll doesn't mean squat,
polls in battle ground states are the real polls that matter in an Electoral College rules elections
Click to expand...

Indeed. Obama 53 - Romney 40 in CO (MoE 4.2)
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CO_041012.pdf

Obama's also crossed the magic number (270) in RCP's aggregation of its poll of state polls
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html


The above CO poll is not yet included in RCP's poll of polls for CO, but it would move CO from Tossup to Lean Dem and Obama to 280EVs.
It isn't November, but Romney has a lot of work to do.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
I hope HBO makes a movie of this spectacle of a primary in a few years. It's been incredible watching a party self destruct.
 
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