PhoenixDark
Banned
Washtenaw? Eh I live there and don't get the impression it's GOP territory. Democrats do quite well here thanks to the student and black population
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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread
- Thread starter AlteredBeast
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Washtenaw? Eh I live there and don't get the impression it's GOP territory. Democrats do quite well here thanks to the student and black population
cartoon_soldier
Member
Not irrelevant as Romney losing just feeds into the can't seal the deal narrative.
Arrowgigantic
Member
Yes but Romney won in 2008 and nobody said McCain can't seal the deal. Because nobody cares what 5,500 GOPers in a solid blue state think.
Please, Breitbart. If you had a damning video of Obama, you'd release it posthaste.
I trust Santorum's surge will prove ephemeral. I doubt the party is thrilled at the prospect of Santorum winning the nomination.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
its all about narrative, though. The narrative has been Romney losing steam and him losing 3 in a row is not good for him.
TestOfTide
Banned
I think it all depends on just how whack the gingrich lovers are willing to go and if in fact you can back once you go whack.
That fact Santorum's popularity is going UP around the time of the whole contraception issue shows just how whack they are willing to go.
TestOfTide
Banned
Exactly. If they put interracial to a popular vote it wouldn't have become constitutionally protected anywhere near as soon as 67.
Interracial marriage get the majority to support it only at 1991?
Fuck me.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Jesus, Santorum.
I'm still not sure Obama would defeat him in a landslide, but we'll see.
This is so bizarre. Imagine Democrats putting up Blanche Lincoln in 2016.
I'm still not sure Obama would defeat him in a landslide, but we'll see.
This is so bizarre. Imagine Democrats putting up Blanche Lincoln in 2016.
After his women in the military thing?
Nah man.
It's not like he had a real chance before that, but it's game over now, Obama can even fuck a white chi...
Well, probably not.
But he can probably fuck a latina and still beat him.
Much of the GOP base is rallying around whatever not-Romney they can. Santorum is just the latest; much like Gingrich, Perry, etc. I expect him to come down to earth shortly. There is a stronger core base of support around him thanks to his social issues stances that may prove resilient, however.
Today will be very interesting. I'm curious whether his late surge was enough to translate to a caucus win in Maine.
empty vessel
Member
Looks like 1997 to me. (Or, perhaps more accurately, sometime between 1994 and 1997.)
speculawyer
Member
What the hell? Who can believe such tripe? Yeah . . . Obama is some Manchurian candidate commie and that is why the whitehouse has been filled with such communist revolutionaries like Larry Summers, Tim Gheitner, Peter Orszag (now at CitiGroup), Rahm Emmanuel, etc.
That is up there with 9/11 Truther nonsense.
I wonder how Romney and his Super Pacs will go after Santorum. They can't attack him like they did Gingrich. Santorum is the evangelicals' man, and a vicious attack on him from Romney and his allies will further alienate them from him. Romney can't have a pissed off evangelical base going into November. He's already starting to lose ground to Obama. A, at best, disinterested evangelical base is a death sentence to Romney's chances in November.
But Romney can't do nothing either. His current attack line against Santorum as a Washington insider is weak, I feel. That won't be enough to shake conservative support from Santorum. And his recent attempt to talk up his conservative credentials seems a day late and a dollar short. Romney can't win against Santorum in a contest of conservative credentials.
If the economy keeps improving, and GOP/conservative base goes towards the social issues route (as it seems they are starting to), Romney is in deep shit.
But Romney can't do nothing either. His current attack line against Santorum as a Washington insider is weak, I feel. That won't be enough to shake conservative support from Santorum. And his recent attempt to talk up his conservative credentials seems a day late and a dollar short. Romney can't win against Santorum in a contest of conservative credentials.
If the economy keeps improving, and GOP/conservative base goes towards the social issues route (as it seems they are starting to), Romney is in deep shit.
He's just so upset that we didn't' listen to him the first time around. Still railing about Bill Ayers and radicals and communists. He sounds like a petulant child: Maybe this time you all will listen to me and see how right I was all along and then you'll be sorry!
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yeesh. Didn't see that until just now.
Santorum probably won't win Maine because it's a week-long caucus IIRC. Most people are thinking Romney will still win, but that Paul has a shot too (as he's the only one who's been campaigning there).
The graph is hard to read, but the text say 1991.
Either way, dayum.
Though at the same time, we've come a long way baby, we're not quite there, but damn, long long way in a pretty short time.
Does anyone else think that, if the economy continues to improve, the GOP and the base will move towards social issues? The whole game plan against Obama is the hope (with some help) that the economy stays lousy long enough so that it sinks him in November. If they don't have that, what else they got? It's not like the GOP can point to their congressional record; their approval ratings are in the shitter, and the most memorable thing about this congress is the debt ceiling fight, which didn't go well with the electorate at all.
I think Romney will just keep hammering home the pork barrel/big government narrative. So far it hasn't been as effective as he'd like it to be, but it doesn't seem like he has anything else to attack Santa-Rim with.
(I was explaining the GOP candidates to my fellow Brit yesterday and that was what he misheard Santorum as.)
The Librarian
Banned
It will probably be the "throw anything and everything at him and see what sticks" approach if the economy continues to improve.
speculawyer
Member
They've mentioned going after him for earmarks. I don't think they'll go all out on Santorum since he'll probably self destruct on his own. Between women in the military, anti-gay hysteria, anti-birth control views, fetus story, lost as incumbent by 18 points, etc. Rick Santorum is too much crazy even for the GOP.
Of course, I hope I'm dead wrong and Santorum runs the table. That will end up with Obama having a near Reagan style sweep.
Bring it on. It is 2012 and that social issue stuff really doesn't fly any more.
Mortrialus
Banned
If the economy continues to improve they will resort to social issues.
cartoon_soldier
Member
If Gingrich wants to beat Romney...he has to drop out. Plain and simple.
gutter_trash
Banned
the funniest thing about Newt's campaign is that he is backed by that Casino magnate mostly
Wow. I can't believe we're looking at the possibility of Santorum actually getting the GOP nomination.
Wasn't it just a few months ago that he was the deadest of the dead GOP contenders (aside from the joke character Bachmann)? Well, I guess he polled higher than Huntsman, but wasn't he second-to-last? And now he's the frontrunner?
Wasn't it just a few months ago that he was the deadest of the dead GOP contenders (aside from the joke character Bachmann)? Well, I guess he polled higher than Huntsman, but wasn't he second-to-last? And now he's the frontrunner?
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Wow if Santorum keeps his momentum up. Wacky primary season gets stranger. Having a guy who couldn't even win his own seat in congress 5 years ago currently killing everyone just shows what a bunch of losers the current republican party is.
You have to ask yourself, what do we really know about Barack Hussein Obama?
on a non sarcastic note, googling what do we really know about Obama produces a depressing number of current links, I thought they would all be 08 :/
Yeah, Obama's political launching pad was discussed and picked apart in 2008. It's hardly a smoking gun for republicans.
cartoon_soldier
Member
But we never found the whitey tape...
It's taken them 3.5 years to manufacture it.
Dude Abides
Banned
Here's an awesome conservative rap rock song that was performed at CPAC.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=2c0P28cqFDY
Make sure you pay attention around the 2 minute mark for a hilarious knicker joke.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=2c0P28cqFDY
Make sure you pay attention around the 2 minute mark for a hilarious knicker joke.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Here we have someone who looks like Michelle Obama, wearing the same kind of J. Crew clothes she does, video is a bit blurry but we can hear her say, "WHITEY"
Aaron Strife
Banned
I have no doubt that the birth control thing wouldn't have been pushed if unemployment were still 9%. The GOP had a pretty solid message about Obama's policies keeping the country in recession, but that doesn't quite work if it isn't true.
Santorum would get creamed with independents and win almost no crossover support from Democrats, outside of the token Dixiecrats who went for McCain in 08. The only thing I worry about is that he would drive out the base, which could possibly save some candidates in Congressional races. But then he's so batshit crazy that it might not make a difference. Dole and Mondale were just uninspiring, Santorum's the real deal.
PhoenixDark
Banned
True, but the party certainly can't be happy with Romney's flailing campaign either. I can't think of another modern example of a front runner clearly rejected by many groups within his party. HW Bush struggled with the hardcore social conservatives during the 92 primary yet was never soundly rejected like Romney has been. Colorado was a colossal disaster, as he can't even blame the loss on an activist base rushing the polls (like say, in Minnesota).
If Santorum continues to do well in polls and pulls off a win in Michigan or Ohio, I think we'll see more of the establishment get on board with Santorum.
RE: the national PPP poll showing Santorum leading.
Gallup uses a five day rolling tracker. Today's update has Romney leading Santorum 34-24. However, it only has three days of polling since the three contests Santorum won. On the day of primaries, it was 37-16, for a net 11 point swing in Santorum's favor. So while not showing the same spread PPP is, they are picking a Santorum surge. Which I still can't type without giggling a little.
Gallup uses a five day rolling tracker. Today's update has Romney leading Santorum 34-24. However, it only has three days of polling since the three contests Santorum won. On the day of primaries, it was 37-16, for a net 11 point swing in Santorum's favor. So while not showing the same spread PPP is, they are picking a Santorum surge. Which I still can't type without giggling a little.
Old white people dancing to conservative raprock and recording it on an iPad. Was not disappointed.
speculawyer
Member
I'm not taking him seriously. There is just a bit of a protest vote going on from the hardcore evangelical base people that don't like Romney. But Romney will win in the end.
I hope I'm totally wrong.
Can anyone understand the Ron Paul delegate issue? Hardcore Paulites are trying to grab all the delegates by infiltration. See this Maddow clip. I'm assuming that is just nuttery. ?
The primary election was canceled since it's non binding and therefore a waste of money. As for the caucuses, I suspect they'll just follow the national poll numbers. The WA GOP don't differ in any discernable way from most other states in my experience.
Hell ya. I hope Santorum crushes Romney. Republican voters don't like Romney and they shouldn't be forced to accept him.
speculawyer
Member
I have a feeling that we are going to see some 'establishment' Republicans come out and bash Santorum like they did when Gingrich had a surge. Some old retired GOPers will come out and say that we can't have a nominee that lost his last race by 18 points as an incumbent.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I think Romney's surrogates will make that argument, but I don't think non-affiliated conservatives will march out over Santorum. He's respected, and while he's not considering a tier-one candidate, if he starts winning more swing states all bets are off. Santorum actually has an economic plan outside of "cut taxes" and I think the manufacturing focus of it will resonate in Michigan, Ohio, etc.
Perfectly okay to have a nominee whose views are straight out of the middle ages, as long as he didn't lose his last election.
Like you, I prognosticated that Romney would emerge victorious from the nomination process. Nevertheless, he has fallen into second place on three separate occasions, and I am inclined to believe that the GOP voter base is ready to move past him. While it is true that the establishment has not excoriated Santorum to nearly the same degree as they have Gingrich, the intensification of Santorum's support portends a possible egress for the anti-Romney coterie.
Bulbo Urethral Baggins
Banned
You've been hanging around Jackson 50 too much.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
that had to be on purpose.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
I'm starting to think the GOP is just trying to decide which sacrificial lamb to send to the slaughter in November. It feels like they might commit electoral suicide with Santorum just to spite Romney in an increasingly hopeless election year. It's clear they really do not like that guy.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
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