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[Puddles]

I don't know if you're really getting an accurate portrayal by comparing two separate data points. Especially considering the economic realities (which drives budgetary decisions) of both those given years. It's probably better to take 3-4 consecutive year chunks and compare those. I'm sure the point would still be the same, but it would be a more accurate portrayal.

I'm working on a comprehensive piece breaking down what happened between our last surplus and our first trillion dollar deficit. There are a lot of factors to consider. You're right: the spending didn't increase at a steady pace over those nine years; there were specific years when it increased a lot.

Oh my, why the violence?

Not violent, just irritated that you would tell me I didn't look hard enough for a breakdown of "Other Mandatory Spending" and then link to a pie chart that lists "Other Mandatory Spending".

 

[PhoenixDark]

Rasmussen? Are we sure they aren't trying to sell a "We need Santorum" narrative?

this x100

There are two possibilities: either Ras is a polling genius capable of proving or disproving trends, or he distorts his polls just enough to support whatever narrative he wants. We know he's no polling genius given the inaccuracies recorded in 08, and I find it too odd that he magically produces a poll that confirms momentum or a surge all the fucking time...

Romney has had a rather bad month but I can't believe he's down 10%. Nor do I believe conservatives will flock to Santorum now. They'll bitch about earmarks, tear him down, then complain that they're stuck with Romney when he wins the nomination.

Republicans should just nominate no one, as that's the best way to describe their views on government.

 

[Black Republican]

theres no poll yet but PPP saying santorum leads romney in Michigan.

PPP said they wont poll the maine caucus though

 

[Arrowgigantic]

Oh my, why the violence?

Because you were shitty to him whilst simultaneously being an idiot. Expect that as you go on in life.

 

[Measley]

theres no poll yet but PPP saying santorum leads romney in Michigan.

PPP said they wont poll the maine caucus though

If Romney loses Michigan, his brand will be broken.

 

[SolKane]

Did they reuse the same 5 colors on that pie chart? It's really hard to read.

 

[Invisible_Insane]

theres no poll yet but PPP saying santorum leads romney in Michigan.

PPP said they wont poll the maine caucus though

I've heard talk that PPPs refusal to poll Maine is part of an anti-Ron Paul conspiracy.

If Romney loses Michigan, his brand will be broken.

I agree, even though I don't think it quite makes sense. Yes, his dad was governor, but as far as I know he has no real professional or political connection to the state, so I'm not sure why it should matter if the state goes to someone else?

 

[PhoenixDark]

I heard someone on television mention Romney has lots of powerful people in Michigan who owe him favors...but I'm confused. He hasn't had any roots here for decades, I see no reason why the state should be a lock for him. He'll most likely win thanks to money.

I'm curious as to whether Santorum will attack Romney's "let Detroit die" nonsense. As a firm no bailout guy, it seems like Santorum can't make that argument without flip flopping. But I do feel he could appeal to blue collar white workers and the Reagan Democrats of Macomb County better than Romney, who has really exposed himself as completely out of touch with the awesome person.

Gotta love his new "my father was a carpenter!" bullshit.

 

[Measley]

I've heard talk that PPPs refusal to poll Maine is part of an anti-Ron Paul conspiracy.

I agree, even though I don't think it quite makes sense. Yes, his dad was governor, but as far as I know he has no real professional or political connection to the state, so I'm not sure why it should matter if the state goes to someone else?

Romney was born in Michigan. Its pretty messed up to lose in the state you were born in.

 

[speculawyer]

If Romney loses Michigan, his brand will be broken.

His brand is already broken. It broke when he revealed he makes millions but only pays 13.9% tax and has accounts in the Cayman Islands and Swiss banks. But he'll still win the nomination.

He really fucked over the GOP good by holding that tax return until it was too late. Romney will just say it is 'envy' . . . but it is not about him being rich. It is about him paying a lower tax rate than Joe Six-pack and wanting to keep it that way. With candidate like Romney, the GOP found a way to make the high unemployment rate work against them!

 

[airmangataosenai]

Andrew Breitbart is a great man.

 

[Oblivion]

If you make Calculated Risk blog a daily part of your reading regime, you can glean a lot of information from it. The analysis of the information is obviously slanted, but you can pick up a lot of understanding from it.

This is a good recommendation. I was trying to think of a place that serves as a good primer, and came up empty. The reason is, I never got one - I just started reading a few sites and began picking things up from there.

Ezra Klein's Wonkblog is a good source as well. And I check the Bloomberg economic calendar every day, which is invaluable; it's my first stop every week day morning. It provides a report on each economic release of the day, how that fared against expectations, some historical context, and a definition of the measure. Today's entry on the trade deficit is a good example. Click on "why investors care" at the end for more detail.

Between Calculated Risk, Wonkblog, and the Bloomberg site, you'll be picking up on a lot each day.

Grazie!

And Ghal, I thought you worked in finance?

 

[speculawyer]

Andrew Breitbart is a great man.

He is quite filled with hate.

 

[Oblivion]

Does anyone have any damning quotes from Republicans wanting to kill NASA?

Working in finance doesn't mean you'll necessarily know shit about a specific subtopic.

Balderdash!

(Didn't mean to make it sound like I was criticizing him in my previous post. Was simply curious is all. )

He is quite filled with tolerance.

Fixed.

 

[SirButterstick]

He is quite filled with hate.

Everytime I look at that pus-filled zit on the ass-cheek of humanity, I'm surprised he's only 40 years old. My god . . .

 

[GhaleonEB]

Grazie!

And Ghal, I thought you worked in finance?

I do, but finance is a big field; my job is in corporate finance. Specifically, I currently do cost analysis for a manufacturing fab. That and my education help me understand a lot, but when it comes to say, banking finance or the Fed or trade balances, I have little experience and am learning along with many of us here. Sort of how a scientist in one field may know little in another.

If you want to talk FIFO or conversion cost, let me know.

Working in finance doesn't mean you'll necessarily know shit about a specific subtopic.

Shorter Ghal: this.

 

[ToxicAdam]

Boom. Pow.

"The amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry rose 3.9 percent in December from November, the largest monthly rise in 17 years, which brought the level of freight shipments to an all-time high, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RcByLM5EoSc/TzXNyewpsvI/AAAAAAAAQ1M/wlt5Yr6I-qE/s400/tsi.jpg

Total U.S. international trade (exports + imports) set a new record of $4.76 trillion in 2011 (see chart above), as both annual exports ($2.1 trillion) and imports ($2.66 trillion) reached record high levels last year, according to today's BEA report

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-PtGq01k1ZqY/TzUqLj3WxqI/AAAAAAAAQ1E/izc1FCWVYxQ/s400/trade.jpg

 

[TestOfTide]

Andrew Breitbart is a great man.

BEHAAAAVE YOURSELVES. He can't even say that phrase without trying his hardest to be an asshole.

On a side note, I always find it funny the douchebag who hosted red eye looks exactly like a brown haired version of breitbart.

 

[Oblivion]

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/bill-mah...to-the-heartland-and-the-rest-of-the-country/

My man, Maher tearing it up as usual.

 

[Officerrob]

Why am I not surprised that the wackjobs on Fox News are still pushing the contraception thing even though it's over? They even had the D.A. of South Carolina on there talking about how he and D.A.'s of at least nine other states will be pursuing legal action on Monday

 

[TestOfTide]

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/bill-mah...to-the-heartland-and-the-rest-of-the-country/

My man, Maher tearing it up as usual.

Yeah I watched the show tonight, damn shame that no one in the panel knew to bring up the fact that interracial marriage became constitutionally protected by a court ruling not by popular vote.

 

[PhoenixDark]

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/watch-an...cpac-speech-i-have-college-days-obama-videos/

oh noes ring the alarms!

edit:
https://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/168143372454866944
wut

PPP took a bit of a hit in Colorado with their poor polling, but overall their record is solid.

 

[Officerrob]

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/watch-an...cpac-speech-i-have-college-days-obama-videos/

oh noes ring the alarms!

edit:
https://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/168143372454866944
wut

PPP took a bit of a hit in Colorado with their poor polling, but overall their record is solid.

That man needs professional help

 

[Black Republican]

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/watch-an...cpac-speech-i-have-college-days-obama-videos/

oh noes ring the alarms!

edit:
https://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/168143372454866944
wut

PPP took a bit of a hit in Colorado with their poor polling, but overall their record is solid.

obama gonna get caught fucking a white woman on tape

typical black man

 

[PhoenixDark]

I can't wait to see what out of context cut of tape he decides to release. Assuming he's not bullshitting of course.

I bet it's Obama talking about Malcolm X or something lol

 

[Mortrialus]

Andrew Breitbart is a great man.

The man is a mentally unstable wreck.

 

[Oblivion]

Andrew Breitbart is a great man.

"STOP RAPING PEOPLE!"

:lol

The man is a goddamned sociopath.

 

[maximum360]

obama gonna get caught fucking a white woman on tape

typical black man

You know it's an election year when there's talk about a mysterious tape no one else has seen except the person making the claim.

 

[mckmas8808]

Boom. Pow.


http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RcByLM5EoSc/TzXNyewpsvI/AAAAAAAAQ1M/wlt5Yr6I-qE/s400/tsi.jpg



http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-PtGq01k1ZqY/TzUqLj3WxqI/AAAAAAAAQ1E/izc1FCWVYxQ/s400/trade.jpg

What's so boom pow about this? Why is this a good thing?

 

[WowBaby]

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/watch-an...cpac-speech-i-have-college-days-obama-videos/

oh noes ring the alarms!

Umm....haven't we all inhaled?

 

[Tamanon]

You know it's an election year when there's talk about a mysterious tape no one else has seen except the person making the claim.

What was it? A gay limo driver doing crack with Obama last time?

Or of course the Whitey tapes.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Maine Caucus time! This is pretty much Ron Paul's last time he has any chance at making a statement. It would be funny if he came out of left field to win the caucus.

 

[Tamanon]

What's so boom pow about this? Why is this a good thing?

Well, Freight and trade increases denote an increase in manufacturing and demand because people are buying things and expanding again. We've gone through a lot of our stores left over from the Recession.

 

[Particle Physicist]

Andrew Breitbart is a great man.

Holy shit.

 

[NihonTiger90]

If Romney loses Michigan, his brand will be broken.

If Romney cannot win the state he was born in, the state his father was governor of, the state where his father is considered by many of the GOP elite there as a God alongside St. Ronnie and St. Gerry ... he has no hope in the general.

I heard someone on television mention Romney has lots of powerful people in Michigan who owe him favors...but I'm confused. He hasn't had any roots here for decades, I see no reason why the state should be a lock for him. He'll most likely win thanks to money.

Grand Rapids is essentially the base of power for the GOP wealthy establishment in the Midwest. Western Michigan is deep, deep red and the DeVos and Van Andel families pretty much own the city of Grand Rapids with all of that Amway money. Actuallly, every county outside of the core Metro Detroit area (Washtenaw, Livingston, Wayne, Oakland and Macomb) and the city of Flint (Genesee) is GOP territory. Michigan's only a swing state because those five counties amass a massive chunk of the state's population. I know this from growing up in a GOP-controlled county there, lol.

 

[Zzoram]

There is no way there is some new revelation about Obama's past this election. Everything came out the first time around.

 

[mckmas8808]

Well, Freight and trade increases denote an increase in manufacturing and demand because people are buying things and expanding again. We've gone through a lot of our stores left over from the Recession.

So does this mean that manufacturing will be going up from here or that manufacturing has already increased causing the increase in freight and trade?

Basically I'm asking which comes first the manufacturing increase then the freight increase? Or it it the other way around where the demand increases, which increases freight, which then increases manufacturing?

 

[irishcow]

If Romney cannot win the state he was born in, the state his father was governor of, the state where his father is considered by many of the GOP elite there as a God alongside St. Ronnie and St. Gerry ... he has no hope in the general.




Grand Rapids is essentially the base of power for the GOP wealthy establishment in the Midwest. Western Michigan is deep, deep red and the DeVos and Van Andel families pretty much own the city of Grand Rapids with all of that Amway money. Actuallly, every county outside of the core Metro Detroit area (Washtenaw, Livingston, Wayne, Oakland and Macomb) and the city of Flint (Genesee) is GOP territory. Michigan's only a swing state because those five counties amass a massive chunk of the state's population. I know this from growing up in a GOP-controlled county there, lol.

Thanks for the insight on the rest of Michigan. I live in Oakland county and knew next to nothing about what you just talked about. 90% of people I know despise most repubs lol. Guess that's because of the area I live in.

 

[NihonTiger90]

Thanks for the insight on the rest of Michigan. I live in Oakland county and knew next to nothing about what you just talked about. 90% of people I know despise most repubs lol. Guess that's because of the area I live in.

Yeah, there's been some changing going on and some parts of the state are becoming more swing-like in nature. Generally, the western and northern parts of the lower peninsula are GOP territory; the UP leans Republican but can swing back and forth because Marquette's leaning more left; and the I-75 corridor from the Michigan-Ohio state line to Bay City is usually Dem in presidential elections.

But it can all change, and it's far less confusing than Ohio can be, trust me!

 

[gutter_trash]

unable to talk about the economy, the GOP turns towards Culture Wars.

that worked wonders for George H.W. Bush's 2nd run, Bob Dole and rogue Pat Buchanan huh

 

[Jooney]

SMH at the belief held by some conservaties that Obama wasn't properly vetted during the 08 elections. Apparently "vetting" means to keep throwing shit until something sticks.

 

[Black Republican]

@ppppolls: Our new national poll: Santorum 38, Romney 23, Gingrich 17, Paul 13

no way, i'll wait for gallup and others to see and similarities

 

[gutter_trash]

operation chaos is working!

 

[Invisible_Insane]

We'll have a preview of Maine up soon. I like Ron Paul's chances quite a bit there, FWIW.

If Romney takes a beating in Maine, Arizona, and then Michigan... my confidence in his inevitability will be quite shaken. I don't expect him to take a beating in Michigan, but I don't think him losing is out of the question.

Any posters/lurkers from Washington or the Pacific Northwest that could shed a little light on what Republican politics in Washington should look like? That's the last primary before Super Tuesday.

 

[mckmas8808]

@ppppolls: Our new national poll: Santorum 38, Romney 23, Gingrich 17, Paul 13

no way, i'll wait for gallup and others to see and similarities

I like PPP alot, but get the fuck outer here with that noise. No way this is possible. How can he be beating Romney by almost more points than Gingrich has total?

 

[Tamanon]

Now the real fun would start if for some reason Newt dropped out before Super Tuesday. I think that would cause Mitt to shit bricks.

 

[Jooney]

I like PPP alot, but get the fuck outer here with that noise. No way this is possible. How can he be beating Romney by almost more points than Gingrich has total?

I think it makes sense. Gingrich is almost certainly done, very unlikely there he makes another comeback - too much baggage. I really think the Moon Base idea killed him, it just came off as tonedeaf, the wrong idea in the wrong cycle. Paul will have his hardcore contingent giving him his ~15%. That leaves Santorum the last "not romney" standing.

 

[zargle]

Having just googled how the Maine caucus works, I could see that style of caucus benefiting Paul.

Also, are there other states that have processes similar to Maine? In how it is a weeklong thing?

 

[Arrowgigantic]

Maine is pretty irrelevant. In 2008, caucus turnout was 5,445 people. Not a typo. Five thousand four hundred forty-five. Romney won with 52%. Romney and Paul are the only ones even campaigning there this year, and Romney just showed up for the first time last night. The caucuses started last Saturday.

 

[RustyNails]

Now the real fun would start if for some reason Newt dropped out before Super Tuesday. I think that would cause Mitt to shit bricks.

Newt is gunning for Georgia. He's definitely gonna win there (Atlanta am cry), and maybe hope for a Santorum Surge like boost in funding and media coverage.