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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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Perfectly okay to have a nominee whose views are straight out of the middle ages, as long as he didn't lose his last election.

Well, it is the GOP.
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That is what sells. I'm sure many of the establishment is willing to let much of that stuff go (anti-gay & anti-birth control) but they created a monster.
 

Trojita

Rapid Response Threadmaker
So what's up with all of these conspiracy theories saying that there has been mass voter fraud from State to State? Something about the people in charge of the voting resign the day after the vote or something.
 
I knew I was going to miss all the cray shit that went down when I was gone. SMH. I don't think we'll ever have a primary as crazy and lopsided as this one.
 
Like you, I prognosticated that Romney would emerge victorious from the nomination process. Nevertheless, he has fallen into second place on three separate occasions, and I am inclined to believe that the GOP voter base is ready to move past him. While it is true that the establishment has not excoriated Santorum to nearly the same degree as they have Gingrich, the intensification of Santorum's support portends a possible egress for the anti-Romney coterie.
Of course you can flip that around . . . as everyone else fails they always return to Romney. I think the fact that Romney is the only one who polls close to Obama means he will win it. They hate Obama more than they like Santorum or Gingrich.
 

Brinbe

Member
Hmm, just saw the PPP numbers, and I sense there's a realness to this Santorum lead, and at this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if he won Michigan, or at least came close.

I know it's very anecdotal, but just scouring right-wing forums/blog comments, (as an example, - http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2012/02/10/poll_santorum_closer_to_obama_than_romney - *warning*, your IQ will drop a few points afterwards) there seems to be a deep and almost hateful mistrust of Romney among many conservatives, who are already reluctant about "RINOs" and moderates, (especially after McCain) and with Santorum beating Romney's numbers against Obama (in some polling), that electability argument goes out the window. Those attacks on Perry/Cain/Newt/and now Rick has done him no favors with many of them, and all the PAC/ad money in the world isn't going to bring those likability numbers back up.

And, I suppose, it really does make sense. I mean they're all terribly flawed candidates, (and those right-wing commentors I mentioned earlier do a fabulous job of pointing out and tearing down the candidates they hate, which is all of them) but which of them do you see as the best representative as the face/leader of the GOP? Out of all four candidates, I'd say, it's easily Santorum. This recent kerfuffle with Obama and contraception, showed that Santorum was the truest conservative in the field, and that authenticity, no matter how horrible, counts for a lot.

So although I'm still not sure the establishment will actually let Santorum win, (because they know he'll get smoked) I think it realistically could set up for an extremely entertaining convention. Because, as I said, they're all terrible, and the GOP is getting smacked with that reality.
 

Miletius

Member
I'm not taking him seriously. There is just a bit of a protest vote going on from the hardcore evangelical base people that don't like Romney. But Romney will win in the end.
I hope I'm totally wrong.

Can anyone understand the Ron Paul delegate issue? Hardcore Paulites are trying to grab all the delegates by infiltration. See this Maddow clip. I'm assuming that is just nuttery. ?

Ultimately the skulduggery needed to pull this sort of trick off leads me to believe that it's all smoke and mirrors. It's true that we don't know the full delegate allocation yet. But I'd be surprised if a majority of RP supporters were able to pull this off -- and even if they did, would the rest of field stand for something like that?
 

Jackson50

Member
For what it's worth, Romney won the CPAC Straw Poll.
True, but the party certainly can't be happy with Romney's flailing campaign either. I can't think of another modern example of a front runner clearly rejected by many groups within his party. HW Bush struggled with the hardcore social conservatives during the 92 primary yet was never soundly rejected like Romney has been. Colorado was a colossal disaster, as he can't even blame the loss on an activist base rushing the polls (like say, in Minnesota).

If Santorum continues to do well in polls and pulls off a win in Michigan or Ohio, I think we'll see more of the establishment get on board with Santorum.
Yeah. I doubt they're pleased with the difficulty he's encountered. But they realize Romney's a superior candidate despite his vulnerabilities. A strident social conservative may appeal to the base, but they would alienate more moderate voters in the general election. Moreover, Santorum does not appeal to other prominent conservative constituencies. The business interests are dubious of his economic bona fides. Also, I concur 88 is fairly analogous to today. However, Bush fared better because he was in a stronger position. The incumbent VP of a wildly popular administration is a formidable candidate, whereas Romney is a Mormon who governed an especially liberal state. Eventually, the electorate will begrudgingly comply. But I think we're witnessing the tumult engendered by the party pushing a weak front runner.
 

Clevinger

Member
Romney looks even more pathetic when compared to HW Bush when you consider the fact that HW didn't have the luxury of Super PACs pouring millions and millions into attack ads in each state against his opponents.
 

Mike M

Nick N
I'm seeing campaign signs for my congressional district from the guy who lost in '10. Is this rematch election stuff common elsewhere, or is this just a weird Washington state thing?
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Not buying PPP's Santorum numbers when Romney wins the CPAC straw poll.

Also, what the GOP seems to be doing is going in the exact opposite direction of most independent voters. I'm stunned their moving that far right so quickly.
 
Romney camp will say well atleast the sunday talking heads will use the maine/cpac results to prove he can still win?

oh and thank fuck maine results came out all at once, coughcoughiowacough
 
Ultimately the skulduggery needed to pull this sort of trick off leads me to believe that it's all smoke and mirrors. It's true that we don't know the full delegate allocation yet. But I'd be surprised if a majority of RP supporters were able to pull this off -- and even if they did, would the rest of field stand for something like that?
It would also seem contradictory to the Ron Paul brand. He is supposed to be all about honesty & liberty . . . . but then to obtain power in such a dishonest manner would go against his whole supposed virtue.
 

ezekial45

Banned
Just curious, will the Koch brothers and those other multi-millionaires pour their support into Santorum (ugh, that sounds dirty) if he does come out ahead of Romney for the nomination?
 
I'm seeing campaign signs for my congressional district from the guy who lost in '10. Is this rematch election stuff common elsewhere, or is this just a weird Washington state thing?
It happens pretty frequently, especially if the challenger was previously a congressman.
 
ron paul supporters not happy at maine results

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/72758.html

The mood was grim at a Ron Paul election night party here when it was announced that the former Massachusetts governor had won the state’s non-binding caucuses.

The crowd booed, then went eerily silent, when the results were revealed.

“Liar!” shouted one supporter when state chairman Charlie Webster announced the results. “How many dead voted?” cried another.

Even as Webster continued to speak, the crowd resumed talking among themselves and ignored the remainder of the announcement.

Earlier Saturday at a caucus site in Sanford, Maine, Paul had been noncommittal about his future plans.

“Well, I’m gonna stay in as long as I’m in the race, and right now I’m in the race,” he told reporters, when asked if he planned to stay in the race through to the convention.

If anyone is responsible for raising the expectations for a win, it is Ron Paul himself. Immediately after his losses in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri were announced, Paul pointed to Maine as a caucus state which he would be competitive in.

“The No. 1 place where we’re going to be keying in on, working on is Maine,” Paul said on Tuesday, according to CNN. “There’s a lot of enthusiasm there.”

The Ron Paul campaign had tried to lower expectations somewhat Saturday, alleging that the Romney campaign had been involved in some tricky business, and predicting that the results would be very close.

In particular, a senior Paul aide had suggested that the Romney campaign was involved in the cancellation of a caucus where Paul’s campaign had expected to do well. “It’s not completely insidious, but they knew we were going to swamp it up there,” said Paul campaign chairman Jesse Benton.

The state GOP said that the caucus was cancelled due to inclement weather.

“His visits to the state have done him immeasurable good. Romney supporters, there is a much bigger spring in their step. Before Romney got here, there was a bit of a feeling of being left out, that Ron Paul supporters got to see their boy but they didn’t get to see theirs,” said Andrew Ian Dodge, a tea-party candidate challenging Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) in the GOP primary.

Notably, not all of Maine’s municipalities have held a caucus yet – tonight’s results only represent about 80 percent of Maine’s towns. According to state GOP chairman Charlie Webster, there are 505 municipalities in Maine, of which 420 have caucused. An additional 40 or so small municipalities will not hold a caucus at all, and the remaining will hold a caucus in the coming weeks.
 

Brinbe

Member
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMUroeU9nLg

Less than six thousand votes? That is an absurdly low level of participation.
Daamn, Newt... that's almost at Perry/Huntsman comedy levels, if not already there. And don't think this 'win' means much (although it would have for Paul) for Mittens. Barely besting Paul in another NE state isn't gonna help him among conservative voters. Though at least he's tied it up with Santorum now?

Also, what was the caucus level at in Maine in 08?
 

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
The GOP race is all over the place.

At this point I think it's a wrap for Obama. Still will be interesting to watch what happens to the GOP. Their demographics are decaying. I wonder how much longer they can stay competitive with the Dems.
 
Daamn, Newt... that's almost at Perry/Huntsman comedy levels, if not already there. And don't think this 'win' means much (although it would have for Paul) for Mittens. Barely besting Paul in another NE state isn't gonna help him among conservative voters. Though at least he's tied it up with Santorum now?

Also, what was the caucus level at in Maine in 08?

Only 5,491 votes on the Republican side in 2008
 

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
Even if the turnout is the same, consider:
1. If just half of those Paul votes are serious, they won't vote for any of the others. They'll not vote, vote for Gary Johnson, or something else.

2. Bush exited with < 30% approval 4 years ago, and supposedly the GOP is riled up and ready to replace Obama. And yet the delegates are all over the place.

3. Frothy santorum is having a 1920s culture war that's unpopular.

4. The economy is improving.

5. Gingrich is in it solely to fuck with Romney.

This is grade A political theater.
 

XMonkey

lacks enthusiasm.
The GOP race is all over the place.

At this point I think it's a wrap for Obama. Still will be interesting to watch what happens to the GOP. Their demographics are decaying. I wonder how much longer they can stay competitive with the Dems.
I think in terms of the Presidency, if they stay on this bullet train to the hard right, they won't have another shot after this year. Period. Their numbers in Congress would dwindle more slowly, however.

Like you said, it all comes down to their demographics and they're going to have to moderate if they want any chance of ever winning the White House again.
 
Even if the turnout is the same, consider:
1. If just half of those Paul votes are serious, they won't vote for any of the others. They'll not vote, vote for Gary Johnson, or something else.

2. Bush exited with < 30% approval 4 years ago, and supposedly the GOP is riled up and ready to replace Obama. And yet the delegates are all over the place.

3. Frothy santorum is having a 1920s culture war that's unpopular.

4. The economy is improving.

5. Gingrich is in it solely to fuck with Romney.

This is grade A political theater.
3) Unpopular with whom? It concerns me that Santorum has not yet been laughed off the national stage, given the myriad insanities he's publicly committed to. I wish I'd been in the control room during the debate where Mitt Romney scoffed at the idea that anyone would want to ban contraception, as it's a position Santorum has staked out repeatedly.

4) I am so thoroughly paranoid about the Euro blowing up that the fact that the economy is improving right now is essentially meaningless to me. Given the tendency of voters to punish incumbents in times of economic distress, if we get a Lehman-style Euro event in September, I'd be inclined to bet heavily against Obama's re-election.
 

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
3) Unpopular with whom? It concerns me that Santorum has not yet been laughed off the national stage, given the myriad insanities he's publicly committed to. I wish I'd been in the control room during the debate where Mitt Romney scoffed at the idea that anyone would want to ban contraception, as it's a position Santorum has staked out repeatedly.

4) I am so thoroughly paranoid about the Euro blowing up that the fact that the economy is improving right now is essentially meaningless to me. Given the tendency of voters to punish incumbents in times of economic distress, if we get a Lehman-style Euro event in September, I'd be inclined to bet heavily against Obama's re-election.

You're right that the Euro is a risk.

But I hope it's unpopular when it's in the general election. Right now it's a 50/50 thing, right? I'm hoping that's among the GOP that's still paying attention and that any moderates are just confusing it with abortion.

The idea of an employer being able to selectively strip an employees coverage for contraception is absolutely insane.
 
I think in terms of the Presidency, if they stay on this bullet train to the hard right, they won't have another shot after this year. Period. Their numbers in Congress would dwindle more slowly, however.

Like you said, it all comes down to their demographics and they're going to have to moderate if they want any chance of ever winning the White House again.

I agree they will have to come back to the center, but I doubt they will if they nominate Romney and lose again. That was their complaint about McCain. He and Romney were not conservative enough. The Republican party won't start becoming moderate until they nominate their version of George McGovern to run for president.
 
Even if the turnout is the same, consider:
1. If just half of those Paul votes are serious, they won't vote for any of the others. They'll not vote, vote for Gary Johnson, or something else.
This might matter if Maine wasn't one of the bluest states there is. Think a little, dude. Obama would win against Zombie Reagan.
 
CPAC hosting a panel featuring leader of a white supremacist group.

Between this and openly advocating raising taxes on the poor while lowering them on the rich, it's like the GOP is just abandoning all pretenses for their positions.

This is what happens when a party is taken over by the conservative South, which had not controlled either of the major parties since the Civil War. (Bush II's ascendancy marked the conservative's South full control.) Now it's Dixiecrats trying to reverse the gains of the civil war versus the rest of us, and it's a little sad how close that political contest is.
 

Snake

Member
It's a good thing Mitt narrowly won the Maine caucuses. If Paul had squeaked through a win, we'd get weeks/months/years of complaining that Mitt had Whitney Houston murdered to divert attention from Paul's glorious victory and inevitable candidacy.
 
This is what happens when a party is taken over by the conservative South, which had not controlled either of the major parties since the Civil War. (Bush II's ascendancy marked the conservative's South full control.) Now it's Dixiecrats trying to reverse the gains of the civil war versus the rest of us, and it's a little sad how close that political contest is.

What?
 

Jackson50

Member
It's a good thing Mitt narrowly won the Maine caucuses. If Paul had squeaked through a win, we'd get weeks/months/years of complaining that Mitt had Whitney Houston murdered to divert attention from Paul's glorious victory and inevitable candidacy.
Goodness. I had no idea.
This is what happens when a party is taken over by the conservative South, which had not controlled either of the major parties since the Civil War. (Bush II's ascendancy marked the conservative's South full control.) Now it's Dixiecrats trying to reverse the gains of the civil war versus the rest of us, and it's a little sad how close that political contest is.
Speak for yourself, pinko elitist.

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