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PoliGAF 2013 |OT1| Never mind, Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

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P

polyh3dron

Banned
House Dems still waiting on word from GOP on cliff deal. Pelosi speaking now.

They're still waiting to hear from Boehner when they're going to have an up or down vote.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
PhoenixDark said:
It didn't work because it included tax hikes. Any deal on taxes now=tax cut. I would give them 300/350k tax cuts, include some of the least offensive sequestration cuts, Medicare cuts that don't impact benefits (btw, let republicans offer these first), discretionary spending cuts, one year AMT fix instead of permanent, UE benefits, and all the tax credits except for the green energy ones.

That would pass the senate, especially after Thursday. Then go on tv every day demanding a vote in the House. Republicans will not hold out now that everyone's taxes have increased. This is why the cliff is the best option.
Click to expand...

What is this? Non-specific bullshit is what it is. And Medicare cuts without being part of the real budget compromise is stupid as those cuts don't impact benefits and ruin the math for the future if used as a carrot now.

And why are you so sure $300/350k does the deal? What if McConnel insists of $400/450? Remember, his starting position was $750, then 550. He had to get talked down much further.

edit: I should also mention Obama got the earlier phaseouts for PEP and the other one, plus cap on itemized deductions.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
For everybody who's ever wished for coalition politics in America, this is what it might look like.

It's clear that there's a coalition to pass the bill -- mostly Democrats with a few GOP members. But it's also clear that it's a weak coalition, that will collapse if the bill gets amended.

The problem is that there may not be a coalition to vote down amendments to the bill -- there are a few GOP members who might be able to get away with passing the bill but would have trouble voting down a spending cuts amendment. So they might have to scrape up some votes somewhere that are willing to kill the amendment but not to vote for the bill -- far-left Dems or mid-right GOP who are willing to LOOK more right-wing than they are by claiming their vote against the amendments was a vote against the whole process.

And, of course, Boehner has to do all this while not losing his Speakership.

Politics, everybody!
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Black Mamba said:
What is this? Non-specific bullshit is what it is. And Medicare cuts without being part of the real budget compromise is stupid as those cuts don't impact benefits and ruin the math for the future if used as a carrot now.

And why are you so sure $300/350k does the deal? What if McConnel insists of $400/450? Remember, his starting position was $750, then 550. He had to get talked down much further.
Click to expand...

What, is he going to filibuster the bill? 55 dems on Thursday, the bill I described would at least get some republican support. 400/450 would be my final offer now that we're over the cliff.

Your objections make little sense now that it's January. As I said, Obama should be on tv every day hammering this. The government can withhold the tax increases for a couple weeks.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
At least it's nice to know that in the days of non-talking filibusters, there can still be good political theater. In fact, we've had little else for a long time.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
PhoenixDark said:
What, is he going to filibuster the bill? 55 dems on Thursday, the bill I described would at least get some republican support. 400/450 would be my final offer now that we're over the cliff.

Your objections make little sense now that it's January. As I said, Obama should be on tv every day hammering this. The government can withhold the tax increases for a couple weeks.
Click to expand...

Obama also got a cap to deductions and phaseout of PEP and the other one at $250k so their taxes still go up. my guess is he saw this as also about an equal tradeoff by moving up the ladder of income.

He can hammer it every day, but the damn thing also much pass the House, too.

And not only that, but 2 million people need their UE right now. His concern was probably driven by those 2 million people who are dependent on that income, right now. But it's easy for you to sit there behind a computer in your position to whine about giving up something meager. This is the leverage the GOP has and it's real.

Sure, when Obama was proposing fundamental changes to the future of medicare, SS, etc I was against that and rather have brought on the cliff to bring leverage. But the deal regarding taxes wasn't going to bring much more leverage compared to the deal agreed to. Maybe he could have done $300/350 and everything else the same. Is it worth whining about? Fucking hell no.
 
G

galperi1

Member
If the deal gets scuttled by the house, the dems should deal like Rick from pawn stars when the seller pushes too much and lower the latest offer....

Then they will hopefully take the deal or blow up the agreement and see taxes rise for everyone....
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
ClovingWestbrook said:
So tomorrow or Thursday we should also find out about filibuster reform, right?
Click to expand...

Another reason to go for a bigger deal lol. Pass filibuster reform and dare McConnell to filibuster the tax cuts/spending cuts bill. Boehner will likely be re-elected on Thursday as well, giving him cover to put the deal on the floor. At which point you only need what, 19 republicans to pass it?
 
E

el retorno

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
That's what I think. Isn't the speaker election in a few days?
Click to expand...

They're not gonna stop the deal but after this he can say he fought for a different bill and watch as beohner puts up a bill that passes with mostly dem votes.

Boehner is just looking weak and not having any control.
@mmcauliff
Rep. Bob Turner: "It may go back with, as someone said, not a poison pill, just enough to give 'em a little heartburn and get it done."
Click to expand...
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
Wait a minute. Looks like Boehner is on the same page as Cantor, but the shock is that Cantor came to a decision – and announced it – before he knew about Boehner's/before Boehner made a decision.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
It seems Boehner and Cantor didn't think Obama could get a deal with McConnell. Didn't Boehner say he would put anything passed in the senate on the house floor?
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Another reason to go for a bigger deal lol. Pass filibuster reform and dare McConnell to filibuster the tax cuts/spending cuts bill. Boehner will likely be re-elected on Thursday as well, giving him cover to put the deal on the floor. At which point you only need what, 19 republicans to pass it?
Click to expand...

There is no bigger deal to be had. the GOP doesn't really want to cut spending significantly. It's all theater. They just want Obama to commit to cutting stuff like SS and Medicare to run against him.

That's why it has to be a small deal. You don't seem to get this.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Black Mamba said:
There is no bigger deal to be had. the GOP doesn't really want to cut spending significantly. It's all theater. They just want Obama to commit to cutting stuff like SS and Medicare to run against him.

That's why it has to be a small deal. You don't seem to get this.
Click to expand...

You continue to miss the basic point that everyone's taxes have technically increased. Obama has all the leverage now; the senate bill was largely negotiated before the cliff arrived. Middle income taxes will be cut, the question is when. I am arguing Obama should give them a deal that cuts some spending, cuts taxes, and would easily pass the senate. A newly re-elected Boehner would have to bring t to the floor. At which point it will likely be amended with more cuts - keep them: as you said yourself, republicans aren't proposing any specific benefit cuts so there's little to worry about.

Republicans think they'll get more spending cuts during the debt ceiling anyway. They will support a deal, or else face the anger of the American people.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Dax01 said:
Wait a minute. Looks like Boehner is on the same page as Cantor, but the shock is that Cantor came to a decision – and announced it – before he knew about Boehner's/before Boehner made a decision.
Click to expand...

Stunning. And just a few weeks ago there was an NYT article about how Boehner and Cantor were finally working lock-step.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
PhoenixDark said:
You continue to miss the basic point that everyone's taxes have technically increased. Obama has all the leverage now; the senate bill was largely negotiated before the cliff arrived. Middle income taxes will be cut, the question is when. I am arguing Obama should give them a deal that cuts some spending, cuts taxes, and would easily pass the senate. A newly re-elected Boehner would have to bring t to the floor. At which point it will likely be amended with more cuts - keep them: as you said yourself, republicans aren't proposing any specific benefit cuts so there's little to worry about.

Republicans think they'll get more spending cuts during the debt ceiling anyway. They will support a deal, or else face the anger of the American people.
Click to expand...

But he did that. Argh..

Why keep the cuts? You're an idiot if you think minor spending cuts will be enough to get the GOP to go down to $250k and probably $250k. And Obama just wasn't willing to let 2 million unemployed get fucked over for a month over $60-100 billion in revenue. Plus he off-set some of it with the phaseouts, which you keep ignoring.

Leave the spending cuts negotiations to the sequester. Obama has good leverage there too as the current cuts are 50% military and almost nothing to safety nets, SS, and medicare. In fact, by securing UE extension, he possibly has more leverage with this deal for the debt ceiling. He doesn't have to trade UE anymore, he can try to trade short term infrastructure.

You don't seem able to view the whole picture. Not surprising coming from the guy who couldn't see the whole picture regarding the election. You're wrong about everything.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
pnFpx.png


lol


Dem aides have said sending it back will kill it. Will be interesting.

I do think Obama needs to get on record right now demanding a vote ASAP with no amendments. Push the fact that 89 people in the Senate voted for it. Put the House in a tough spot.
 
G

gcubed

Member
Chichikov said:
I don't think that in a country as sparsely populated and rich in natural resources like the US there's a pressing need to discourage childbirth.
And while it's true that such measures can affect the overall birthrate, on the individual level, there are still a whole lot of people out there who don't exactly approach family planning as a cost benefit exercise (or at all for that matter) so such move will undoubtedly end up inflicting pain on poor families.
Click to expand...

I'm not really worried about discouraging child birth, but I think there are better ways to spend the money. I agree that it would inflict more pain on poor families, this isn't very liberal of me, but wear a condom or get some now free birth control if you can't afford your children.

As I read more of the bill I'm getting more OK with it.
 
S

SpeedySwaf

Member
My guess is the "responsible" cuts will be in things like Planned Parenthood, EPA, etc. so they can try to get Dems to vote against it for 2014 material.
 
D

Doc Holliday

SPOILER: Columbus finds America
I bet the GOP will go for ridiculous cuts just so that dems have no choice but to kill the bill. Then they will try to blame going over the cliff on democrats. F ing cantor
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Black Mamba said:
But he did that. Argh..

Why keep the cuts? You're an idiot if you think minor spending cuts will be enough to get the GOP to go down to $250k and probably $250k. And Obama just wasn't willing to let 2 million unemployed get fucked over for a month over $60-100 billion in revenue. Plus he off-set some of it with the phaseouts, which you keep ignoring.

Leave the spending cuts negotiations to the sequester. Obama has good leverage there too as the current cuts are 50% military and almost nothing to safety nets, SS, and medicare. In fact, by securing UE extension, he possibly has more leverage with this deal for the debt ceiling. He doesn't have to trade UE anymore, he can try to trade short term infrastructure.

You don't seem able to view the whole picture. Not surprising coming from the guy who couldn't see the whole picture regarding the election. You're wrong about everything.
Click to expand...

How do you not understand that the previous bills failed because they also raised taxes? ANY bill negotiated now will lower taxes, and thus has a better chance of passing.

Obama should use the sequester right now. Instead of waiting to use it during debt ceiling negotiations, which WILL happen due to the senate bill. It would help ensure any deal includes UE benefits; republicans are running scared due to the sequestration, why not take advantage now instead of two months from now, when who knows what the political landscape will look like.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
"@robertcostaNRO: So regardless of the different takes on Cantor/Boehner, if Cantor is opposed to this deal, short story is: McConnell-Biden (nearly) DOA."

Turn out the lights...
 
C

ClovingWestbrook

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
How do you not understand that the previous bills failed because they also raised taxes? ANY bill negotiated now will lower taxes, and thus has a better chance of passing.

Obama should use the sequester right now. Instead of waiting to use it during debt ceiling negotiations, which WILL happen due to the senate bill. It would help ensure any deal includes UE benefits; republicans are running scared due to the sequestration, why not take advantage now instead of two months from now, when who knows what the political landscape will look like.
Click to expand...

So throw in spending cuts in order to get it down to $250k? No. The GOP isn't going to support $250k regardless of whether it's seen as a tax cut or tax increase. What don't you understand about this.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
ClovingWestbrook said:
So throw in spending cuts in order to get it down to $250k? No. The GOP isn't going to support $250k regardless of whether it's seen as a tax cut or tax increase. What don't you understand about this.
Click to expand...

I mentioned I am fine with 300/350k. Again, this still equals a tax cut, passes the senate, will have most American's support, benefit from Obama demanding its passage daily on TV, etc. You think republicans will let everyone's taxes stay up because they want to pass some ridiculous 1mil threshold?
 
C

CharlieDigital

Banned
Heard this idea earlier today but not sure if it's been posted here or not, but going over the cliff would be a win from a Democrat and Republican perspective because it would allow them to more or less craft new "Obama Tax Cut" for the middle class.

So taxes revert because "it was out of our control" and then both sides get to vote on a new "tax cut".

Win-win for everyone.
 
C

ClovingWestbrook

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
I mentioned I am fine with 300/350k. Again, this still equals a tax cut, passes the senate, will have most American's support, benefit from Obama demanding its passage daily on TV, etc. You think republicans will let everyone's taxes stay up because they want to pass some ridiculous 1mil threshold?
Click to expand...

What is this big difference you are obsessing over regarding $100k? It took getting Biden to negotiate just to get McConnell down from $750 to $450. What cuts do you want to offer to offset the $100k?
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
PhoenixDark said:
How do you not understand that the previous bills failed because they also raised taxes? ANY bill negotiated now will lower taxes, and thus has a better chance of passing.

Obama should use the sequester right now. Instead of waiting to use it during debt ceiling negotiations, which WILL happen due to the senate bill. It would help ensure any deal includes UE benefits; republicans are running scared due to the sequestration, why not take advantage now instead of two months from now, when who knows what the political landscape will look like.
Click to expand...

Use the sequester to do what? The sequester will mostly be removed or can kicked continually. everyone in there knows this.


The previous bills argument is also flawed. Obama and Boehner could have easily built a deal that would be passed now instead of before the 1st but agree it wasn't possible then. But they couldn't because the GOP cannot make a big deal because they don't want to actually cut spending.

There is no big deal to be had. You cannot throw sequester into it for this very reason.

And this would be a much longer fight. You'd be fucking over a lot of unemployed right now. It's not worth it because of a $100k threshold. You yourself gave me the parameters you wanted and basically this is the only think you're upset about. And you ignore the phaseouts which offset that.

You're blowing smoke up everyone's asses. I'm going to buy a pair of Cantor's clown shoes and send them your way; I'm certain they it.


"While most Democratic senators went along with the compromise in an early-morning vote on Tuesday, activists, labor leaders and liberal economists issued a harsh barrage against the deal. The president, they said, squandered his election victory by allowing too many wealthy Americans to keep income and estate tax cuts that otherwise would have expired."

Meanwhile, Senate Democratic leaders tell The Hill they will "reject any House effort to amend a fiscal cliff deal that passed the upper chamber with overwhelming support on New Year's Day."

Said one Democratic aide: "We're done.
Click to expand...
 
C

ClovingWestbrook

Banned
CharlieDigital said:
Heard this idea earlier today but not sure if it's been posted here or not, but going over the cliff would be a win from a Democrat and Republican perspective because it would allow them to more or less craft new "Obama Tax Cut" for the middle class.

So taxes revert because "it was out of our control" and then both sides get to vote on anew "tax cut".

Win-win for everyone.
Click to expand...

Not a win for the GOP. Do you want the Dems to be able to run on an 'Obama tax cut' in 2014? Technically this is still the Bush tax cut.
 
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