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[NYCmetsfan]

I agree. I'd be okay with Pressler winning, but Weiland winning would be even better.

CNN has Roberts beating Orman by 1 which is a bit of an outlier at the moment. I've always thought their likely voter screen is extremely tight so for right now I'll consider it an effect of that.

literally every poll that doesn't benefit dems has some flaw it seems. or at least that's the impression i get from this thread. and every poll with dems us is reason to be excited.

 

[Aaron Strife]

literally every poll that doesn't benefit dems has some flaw it seems. or at least that's the impression i get from this thread. and every poll with dems us is reason to be excited.

CNN is literally the only pollster to show a Roberts lead since Taylor dropped out. Just yesterday SUSA dropped a poll that had Orman leading by 5. There's no reason to assume Roberts all of a sudden has gained back the lead, especially since his own internal polling has him down double digits or so.

FWIW the Registered Voter subsample puts Orman up by 3. Who the fuck is still taking the time to answer these surveys but doesn't plan on voting?

I know you like to play devil's advocate but comments like this are needlessly abrasive.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

CNN is literally the only pollster to show a Roberts lead since Taylor dropped out. Just yesterday SUSA dropped a poll that had Orman leading by 5. There's no reason to assume Roberts all of a sudden has gained back the lead, especially since his own internal polling has him down double digits or so.

I know you like to play devil's advocate but comments like this are needlessly abrasive.

I'm not doubting its an outlier, but the 'probably voter screen' excuse just sounds exactly like unskewing. Just call it an outlier.

I like your optimism and appricate all the polls, i don't mean to be abrasive. just don't think we need to be making up reasons just cause.

 

[Black Mamba]

Legit analysis, bro. Although there is another PAC spending a million on positive ads for Weiland, so maybe the DSCC just doesn't want to be redundant.

Pro-Weiland ads could move Pressler voters to Weiland, anti-Rounds ads could move Rounds voters to Pressler.

Daily Kos endorsed Weiland. Any liberal should be pleased with his questionnaire.

Fox News polling dump tonight: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Kentucky. Their last round showed results fairly close to other pollsters with the exception of Louisiana.

Should be noted, Fox News polls are actually quite good (at least during Presidential Elections). They're not intentionally geared to make the GOP look better.

literally every poll that doesn't benefit dems has some flaw it seems. or at least that's the impression i get from this thread. and every poll with dems us is reason to be excited.

Pointing out what may seem like an outlier isn't wrong. I'd rather the CNN poll not put Roberts ahead, but one has to wonder how it's the only one doing that. I don't think he's been even close in a single poll for a month or longer.

I'm not doubting its an outlier, but the 'probably voter screen' excuse just sounds exactly like unskewing. Just call it an outlier

Remember when I did the same thing because Gallup over-represented the South in their polls for Obama's 2012 election?

Unskewing is not the same as looking at a poll's internals and seeing if there's a major flaw.

FWIW, Cohn thinks the Weiland polls were poorly done since it has such a small sample.

 

[Wilsongt]

Poor Brownback can't catch a break. First his economy is shit, he's losing in the polls, and now gays can marry in Kansas.

 

[WayneMorse]

Sam Wang says Pressler would have a 15% lead if Weiland drops out.

 

[PhoenixDark]

AJC analysis: Georgia sees surge in voter rolls

An unusually high number of residents have registered to vote in the Peach State this year, and thousands are still awaiting approval just days before early voting starts Monday across Georgia.

With voting officials still scrambling to process applicants, it could mean the start of another controversial election in the state.

More 212,000 have been added to voter rolls so far this year as the Nov. 4 midterm election approaches.

On average, a county election office may see 50 to 70 pending voter applications, said Chris Harvey, the chief investigator for the Secretary of State’s Office. This year, it’s 2,000 to 3,000, which Harvey called “uncharacteristically high.”

http://www.myajc.com/news/news/stat...nbox_apr2013_ajcstub1#da69375a.3564794.735514

Wow, pretty stunning numbers.

 

[Jooney]

http://www.myajc.com/news/news/stat...nbox_apr2013_ajcstub1#da69375a.3564794.735514

Wow, pretty stunning numbers.

drudgesiren.gif

 

[Aaron Strife]

(Fake) numbers for Fox News polls out

48-41
46-45
51-43
44-44
48-45
47-43

Well gee isn't that annoying.

 

[Bel Marduk]

literally every poll that doesn't benefit dems has some flaw it seems. or at least that's the impression i get from this thread. and every poll with dems us is reason to be excited.

Too bad unskewedpolls.com is sitting out this election and only focusing on presidential approval ratings.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

(Fake) numbers for Fox News polls out


Well gee isn't that annoying.

huh?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...ound-races-trending-gop-roberts-up-in-kansas/

New Fox News battleground polls show a Republican trend in the fight for the U.S. Senate.The GOP candidates -- helped by anti-Barack Obama sentiment and strong support from male voters -- lead in all five states: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas and Kentucky.

The Senate race clearly remains competitive, as 44 percent of likely voters in Kansas back Roberts, with 39 percent for independent Greg Orman and 3 percent for libertarian Randall Batson. Yet Orman was up by six points in a two-way matchup three weeks ago (48-42 percent).

Likely voters in Alaska are unhappy with President Obama and don’t think much of his health care plan. That helps give Republican Dan Sullivan a 44-40 percent advantage over Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Begich.

Republican challenger Tom Cotton is up seven points over Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor among Arkansas likely voters (46 percent vs. 39 percent). Cotton’s lead is right at the poll’s margin of error (± 3.5 percentage points).

Republicans in Colorado are much more enthusiastic than Democrats about the upcoming election, and that explains -- at least in part -- why the new poll shows Rep. Cory Gardner topping Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Udall by 43-37 percent.

Among likely voters here, nearly half of Republicans (48 percent) are “extremely” interested in the election, while less than a third of Democrats (31 percent) feel that way. This could be even more important here than in some other battleground states because Colorado now votes 100 percent by mail and people can register to vote up through Election Day.

U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is narrowly ahead of Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes -- 45-41 percent -- among Kentucky likely voters.

The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The polls were conducted October 4-7, 2014, by telephone (landline and cell phone) with live interviewers among a random sample of likely voters in Alaska (706), Arkansas (707), Colorado (739), Kansas (702) and Kentucky (706). Results based on the full sample in each state have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

January 3rd

Mitch leads a 52-48 R majority (͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

 

[thepotatoman]

literally every poll that doesn't benefit dems has some flaw it seems. or at least that's the impression i get from this thread. and every poll with dems us is reason to be excited.

I'm not doubting its an outlier, but the 'probably voter screen' excuse just sounds exactly like unskewing. Just call it an outlier.

I like your optimism and appricate all the polls, i don't mean to be abrasive. just don't think we need to be making up reasons just cause.

I think we've done a damn good job of being ahead of the curve but not completely headed off in the wrong path. South Dakota for instance I called as not an outlier using fundamental reasoning, and guess what, we got another poll showing it close and DSCC apparently ended up determined that it is actually close, and switched strategies to start pumping in money. I think that deserves some freaking credit, not criticism for being partisan.

And when Taylor announced he was dropping out in Kansas and everyone here thought that wrapped everything up while everyone else remained unsure, were we being delusional? Because I'm seeing most pundits now finally saying Orman has a solid lead.

And when Iowa clearly took a turn for the worse, no one was calling bad polling there. Most were just calling it a temporary downturn that Braley will turn around. That might be optimistic but it isn't delusional like Republicans were in 2012. Similarly with KY and AR, no one is claiming a conspiracy in the conservative polling industry, just that they think there might still be a chance.

I don't know what you want us to do. Be the exact opposite of republicans in every way, and thus promote doom and gloom about every race because they promote mindless optimism about every race? Do absolutely no analysis of polling because they use bad analysis of polling? You seem so focused on ways we might happen to look like republicans, but that seems to be just partisanship of a different flavor, and not the result inward reflection is supposed have.

Sorry if I'm misrepresenting your point, but you've been criticizing this sort of thing fairly frequently so I feel it needs a defense, and you've done it in very generalized terms, so it's a bit hard to pin down your position. There are some views about the election here which I don't agree with, but none of them seem so extreme as to call partisanship and make references to 2012 "unskewing". A simple disagreement seems more appropriate.

 

[Black Mamba]

Two Republican incumbents are fighting to keep their jobs in Kansas.The new Fox News poll finds both of them -- Sen. Pat Roberts and Gov. Sam Brownback -- have jumped ahead of their challengers.

The Senate race clearly remains competitive, as 44 percent of likely voters in Kansas back Roberts, with 39 percent for independent Greg Orman and 3 percent for libertarian Randall Batson. Yet Orman was up by six points in a two-way matchup three weeks ago (48-42 percent).

That's a ridiculous switch...

Overall, the poll finds Brownback outdoes Davis: 46-40 percent. That’s a reversal from last month when Davis was up by four (45-41 percent).

As is this one...

Likely voters in Alaska are unhappy with President Obama and don’t think much of his health care plan. That helps give Republican Dan Sullivan a 44-40 percent advantage over Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Begich.

Ugh.

Republican challenger Tom Cotton is up seven points over Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor among Arkansas likely voters (46 percent vs. 39 percent). Cotton’s lead is right at the poll’s margin of error (± 3.5 percentage points).

Ugh

Republicans in Colorado are much more enthusiastic than Democrats about the upcoming election, and that explains -- at least in part -- why the new poll shows Rep. Cory Gardner topping Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Udall by 43-37 percent.

This one looks weird on its face. 20% undecided this late!?

The Colorado governor’s race is all tied up at 42 percent apiece for Democratic incumbent John Hickenlooper and Republican challenger Bob Beauprez.

U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is narrowly ahead of Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes -- 45-41 percent -- among Kentucky likely voters.

Ugh.



The Fox Polls look weird to me. The Kansas shifts seem almost too absurd to believe. If this was over a few months or someone said something nuts, sure...but that's a huge fucking swing in just days compared to other pollsters.

I don't know what's going on here. There are some pollsters that are very fucking wrong and some that are very fucking right and there's just such a huge disparity at times...

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I think we've done a damn good job of being ahead of the curve but not completely headed off in the wrong path. South Dakota for instance I called as not an outlier using fundamental reasoning, and guess what, we got another poll showing it close and DSCC apparently ended up determined that it is actually close, and switched strategies to start pumping in money. I think that deserves some freaking credit, not criticism for being partisan.

And when Taylor announced he was dropping out in Kansas and everyone here thought that wrapped everything up while everyone else remained unsure, were we being delusional? Because I'm seeing most pundits now finally saying Orman has a solid lead.

And when Iowa clearly took a turn for the worse, no one was calling bad polling there. Most were just calling it a temporary downturn that Braley will turn around. That might be optimistic but it isn't delusional like Republicans were in 2012. Similarly with KY and AR, no one is claiming a conspiracy in the conservative polling industry, just that they think there might still be a chance.

I don't know what you want us to do. Be the exact opposite of republicans in every way, and thus promote doom and gloom about every race because they promote mindless optimism about every race? Do absolutely no analysis of polling because they use bad analysis of polling? You seem so focused on ways we might happen to look like republicans, but that seems to be just partisanship of a different flavor, and not the result inward reflection is supposed have.

Sorry if I'm misrepresenting your point, but you've been criticizing this sort of thing fairly frequently so I feel it needs a defense, and you've done it in very generalized terms, so it's a bit hard to pin down your position. There are some views about the election here which I don't agree with, but none of them seem so extreme as to call partisanship and make references to 2012 "unskewing". A simple disagreement seems more appropriate.

My general sense is there is a lot of groupthink going on and people are being unable to see the general trend. PD leans the opposite way

 

[Aaron Strife]

Hm, another Roberts lead but this one is pretty big. PPP is going back this weekend, we'll see what they say I guess. Brownback leading by a significant margin? lol junk

Lots of undecideds.

KY and AK polls seem not terrible, AR and CO are more worrisome but I do not take CO polls at face value. Especially since CO is all mail-in now, why would they focus on enthusiasm? Literally everyone is getting a ballot.

 

[Tamanon]

So how many years after its law will people stop referring to the ACA as "Obama's health care plan". It's not a plan any more, it's a law.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Hm, another Roberts lead but this one is pretty big. PPP is going back this weekend, we'll see what they say I guess. Brownback leading by a significant margin? lol junk

Lots of undecideds.

KY and AK polls seem not terrible, AR and CO are more worrisome but I do not take CO polls at face value. Especially since CO is all mail-in now, why would they focus on enthusiasm? Literally everyone is getting a ballot.

are those the normal firms for fox?

So how many years after its law will people stop referring to the ACA as "Obama's health care plan". It's not a plan any more, it's a law.

after they stop referring to Roosevelt pension plan

 

[Aaron Strife]

They used to have a nonpartisan pollster who was pretty good but I think recently they switched to a team of a D-leaning pollster and an R-leaning pollster.

 

[Tamanon]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/nbc-jon-stewart-meet-the-press

Before settling on Chuck Todd, NBC executives seriously considered tapping Jon Stewart to serve as the new moderator of "Meet the Press," according to a report from New York Magazine's Gabriel Sherman.

Sherman cited "three senior television sources" who said that NBC News president Deborah Turness held negotiations with the "Daily Show" host to take over the longtime Sunday morning program. The negotiations did not bear fruit, but it apparently wasn't for lack of trying by NBC, Sherman reports:

I can see Jon not wanting to get into that nonsense.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/nbc-jon-stewart-meet-the-press



I can see Jon not wanting to get into that nonsense.

nice they realize the show has already hit joke level

 

[WayneMorse]

http://thegazette.com/subject/news/...ther-to-beat-kochs-billionaire-class-20141005

Sanders, 73, a self-described democratic socialist who is considering a bid for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, brought the Johnson County Democrats to their feet several times in his half-hour speech that laid out a progressive agenda for increasing Social Security benefits and the minimum wage, offering a single-payer Medicare-for-all health care plan, creating 13 million jobs by investing $1 billion in a federal jobs program to rebuild transportation infrastructure and overturning the U.S. Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision.

Yup, Bernie's running. Let's hope we can lay the foundation for a progressive congress in 2016 starting with a Dem majority this year.

 

[Wilsongt]

Good Christians: Risks their lives to go to West Africa to help those in need.

Bad Christians: well...

Kermittea.gif

Also, wtf. Fox News just talked about that work place beheading in OK and they just casually slipped in the fact that the killer was a Muslim convert. How is that in the slightest way important?

 

[Tamanon]

Jon Stewart on Meet the Press would at least mean McCain's appearances would be cut down.

Although, I wonder how much control the host has over the guest list. It might've actually improved things since he'd probably shake up the old guard of guests.

 

[thepotatoman]

http://www.myajc.com/news/news/stat...nbox_apr2013_ajcstub1#da69375a.3564794.735514

Wow, pretty stunning numbers.

As usual, red republican, blue democrat, green independent.

Dems have the overall lead in the total, but Republicans are starting to outpace them.

Just something to keep in mind.

 

[Black Mamba]

Looking at Kansas.

The only change I can find is that a bunch of people went from "somewhat interest" (and thus not a likely voter) to some form of "interested" in the election (and thus a likely voter). And every single one of these people are voting for Roberts and Brownbeck.

Based on what I see, all those people are base GOPers.

What's interesting is Orman and Roberts are getting basically the same percent of their base (just over 70%) BUT Orman is getting 16% of GOPers to 5% of Dems for Roberts. And he's killing it in Independents 45-36%.

The only explanation is that the number or GOPers outnumber Dems and Indies by a huge fucking margin.

In 2012, 52% were Democrat or Independent and 48% GOP. If that breakdown holds, Orman would still be up a lot.

The only way for the Kansas poll to be the way it is must be something like GOP 60, Dems + Indies 40%. I'm not saying Fox News is wrong, but they're estimating a huge GOP advantage in the percentage of people voting for the numbers, here.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Looking at Kansas.

The only change I can find is that a bunch of people went from "somewhat interest" (and thus not a likely voter) to some form of "interested" in the election (and thus a likely voter). And every single one of these people are voting for Roberts and Brownbeck.

Based on what I see, all those people are base GOPers.

What's interesting is Orman and Roberts are getting basically the same percent of their base (just over 70%) BUT Orman is getting 16% of GOPers to 5% of Dems for Roberts. And he's killing it in Independents 45-36%.

The only explanation is that the number or GOPers outnumber Dems and Indies by a huge fucking margin.

In 2012, 52% were Democrat or Independent and 48% GOP. If that breakdown holds, Orman would still be up a lot.

The only way for the Kansas poll to be the way it is must be something like GOP 60, Dems + Indies 40%. I'm not saying Fox News is wrong, but they're estimating a huge GOP advantage in the percentage of people voting for the numbers, here.

thats what they say in the article

 

[thepotatoman]

Nate Silver @NateSilver538 -
The Fox News polls that just came through look great for Republicans -- but Fox has had a pretty strong (~3 pt) GOP house effect this year.

 

[Black Mamba]

thats what they say in the article

Yes, but I'm saying their advantage sounds pretty ridiculous.

Obviously the GOP will have a higher margin, but if the numbers in their crosstabs are true, their GOP numbers must be like 60, maybe 65% (in 2012 it was 48%).

I can't find any exit polling of 2010 in Kansas. It might not exist. Based on a near final poll in 2010, Brownback winning and only 55% were Republican (of course, he won Independents by a large margin then).

If it's 55% now, Orman should be up according to Fox's crosstabs. They're expecting higher GOP ratio than 2010 by quite a bit...

 

[Aaron Strife]

http://thegazette.com/subject/news/...ther-to-beat-kochs-billionaire-class-20141005



Yup, Bernie's running. Let's hope we can lay the foundation for a progressive congress in 2016 starting with a Dem majority this year.

Oh hell yeah

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/519973665425723392

Greg Sargent shits on Fox News' polling by pulling some articles from 2012. Missed national margin by 4 and Virginia by 6. The Ohio poll isn't too bad but they had a lot of undecideds just two weeks before the election.

 

[Wilsongt]

Oh hell yeah

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/519973665425723392

Greg Sargent shits on Fox News' polling by pulling some articles from 2012. Missed national margin by 4 and Virginia by 6. The Ohio poll isn't too bad but they had a lot of undecideds just two weeks before the election.

Please let them keep believing. We need another election night Roveout.

 

[Black Mamba]

Okay, found the last Fox poll.

Basically, Orman lost 10 percent of Democrat voters and lost a shit ton of independent voters compared to the last poll.

Orman went from +7 with men to -13 with them. In 3 weeks. What!?

What's interesting is in the last poll, when you remove Taylor, all the indies and Dems go to Orman and none to Roberts.

So how is it that nearly every crosstab had a major shift towards Roberts? It's quite fascinating, actually.

How did so many independents switch their vote from Orman to Roberts?

Something very weird.

 

[ivysaur12]

They used to have a nonpartisan pollster who was pretty good but I think recently they switched to a team of a D-leaning pollster and an R-leaning pollster.

They've also had a ~3pt R lean.

 

[PhoenixDark]

literally every poll that doesn't benefit dems has some flaw it seems. or at least that's the impression i get from this thread. and every poll with dems us is reason to be excited.

Also notice how whenever a poll comes out with a slim dem lead, it's front page news on TPM. Grimes up 1 in some poll? Priority news! Aggregate polling, averages? Nah fuck that shit, Grimes is up 1!

 

[theprodigy]

Okay, found the last Fox poll.

Basically, Orman lost 10 percent of Democrat voters and lost a shit ton of independent voters compared to the last poll.

Orman went from +7 with men to -13 with them. In 3 weeks. What!?

What's interesting is in the last poll, when you remove Taylor, all the indies and Dems go to Orman and none to Roberts.

So how is it that nearly every crosstab had a major shift towards Roberts? It's quite fascinating, actually.

How did so many independents switch their vote from Orman to Roberts?

Something very weird.

it's magic, obviously /s

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Real bad news for Kay tonight

Also the supreme court loves disenfranchising blacks

 

[Aaron Strife]

Also notice how whenever a poll comes out with a slim dem lead, it's front page news on TPM. Grimes up 1 in some poll? Priority news! Aggregate polling, averages? Nah fuck that shit, Grimes is up 1!

The aggregates are being skewed by shit polls. Iowa went from a 1 point Ernst lead on pollster to a 5 point lead based on that gaudy Magellan poll that had her up by nine. I don't care how convinced you are Ernst will win, no one else has her up by that much and every other poll is more or less tied - but nope, some random R pollster with poor performance has her up 9, Likely R!

If you dock 3 points off those Fox News polls that's far more believable (McConnell up 1, Cotton up 4, Sullivan up 1) - though I still don't buy Udall or Orman losing.

 

[WayneMorse]

How is Ernst even winning in the first place? Braley is dumb but Ernst is crazy and completely out of step with the politics of the state.

 

[Aaron Strife]

How is Ernst even winning in the first place? Braley is dumb but Ernst is crazy and completely out of step with the politics of the state.

Iowa is barely a D+1 state and the media has been coddling Ernst. Look at all the bullshit "scandals" that have been pushed surrounding Braley - like #chickengate - yet nothing about Ernst and her husband suing some painter for everything he has.

That being said I still think Braley will win. But then I also think Pryor will win so take that how you will.

Also, regarding Fox News' polls - if you didn't vote in 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012, they don't count you as a "likely voter." herpaderp. So what the hell do they do for people who came of age after 2006? That cuts out everyone under the age of 26.

 

[WayneMorse]

yea so it's a shit poll, young people are gonna make the difference in the only races that matter (CO and IA).

 

[Black Mamba]

Iowa is barely a D+1 state and the media has been coddling Ernst. Look at all the bullshit "scandals" that have been pushed surrounding Braley - like #chickengate - yet nothing about Ernst and her husband suing some painter for everything he has.

That being said I still think Braley will win. But then I also think Pryor will win so take that how you will.

Also, regarding Fox News' polls - if you didn't vote in 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012, they don't count you as a "likely voter." herpaderp. So what the hell do they do for people who came of age after 2006? That cuts out everyone under the age of 26.

Pretty sure that's if you didn't vote in any election. They have under 25 votes in some of their crosstabs.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

they have republicans up 49-43 on the generic ballot


edit: 538 shows no change in chances even with fox polls\

Also notice how whenever a poll comes out with a slim dem lead, it's front page news on TPM. Grimes up 1 in some poll? Priority news! Aggregate polling, averages? Nah fuck that shit, Grimes is up 1!

I haven't been to TPM since 2012. Site went to crap when their good writers left.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Pretty sure that's if you didn't vote in any election. They have under 25 votes in some of their crosstabs.

Nah, someone on DK posted their prompt. They ask if you voted in 2012, then 2010, then 2008, then 2006. If you answer no to any of them they hang up. They do make an exception if you just registered in 2014 (yet not for 2013 what the hell).

Their margin of errors among the under 25 cross tab are pretty large too so they're working with a much smaller pool of voters.

 

[CygnusXS]

they have republicans up 49-43 on the generic ballot

How can opinions be this wrong

 

[Wilsongt]

they have republicans up 49-43 on the generic ballot

Really?

After Kansas and Wisconsin the GOP is better on the economy?

 

[Aaron Strife]

Really sucks when Obama drives the deficit and unemployment numbers down to pre-recession levels while expanding healthcare and making it cheaper (in most places) and voters are still convinced the GOP is better on fiscal issues.

It's stupid that cutting taxes and spending to the bone has been conflated with fiscal responsibility just because it's easier to put it on a bumper sticker.

 

[eBay Huckster]

sure, so they "think" the GOP's better on these issues in the abstract and then wind up electing more democrats than republicans to the senate

 

[PhoenixDark]

Really sucks when Obama drives the deficit and unemployment numbers down to pre-recession levels while expanding healthcare and making it cheaper (in most places) and voters are still convinced the GOP is better on fiscal issues.

It's stupid that cutting taxes and spending to the bone has been conflated with fiscal responsibility just because it's easier to put it on a bumper sticker.

Chalk it up as another example of how bad of a communicator Obama is, mixed with the fact that the economy sucks in the eyes of most people based on their personal or family experiences. It's also not hard to see why Obamacare isn't very popular amongst folks.

Still, I wonder if things would be different if the world didn't blow up this year. Would democrats have recovered from the initial Obamacare fuck up? I think so, but ultimately Obama's popularity would probably be middling at best. I still think the NSA issue was the final straw, and everything afterwards has just been window dressing.

 

[Averon]

Really sucks when Obama drives the deficit and unemployment numbers down to pre-recession levels while expanding healthcare and making it cheaper (in most places) and voters are still convinced the GOP is better on fiscal issues.

It's stupid that cutting taxes and spending to the bone has been conflated with fiscal responsibility just because it's easier to put it on a bumper sticker.

Seems America want what's happening in Kansas happening to the rest of the nation without realizing the disastrous consequences. Sometimes I wonder if people really need to experience what will happen if the GOP gets their way on fiscal matters before it gets through their heads.

The people of Kansas is going through that right now.

 

[East Lake]

It all comes back to the weak stimulus. Get that right and communication doesn't matter. Get it wrong to some degree and we wait for the economy to limp its way back to normal. So now we wait, and we're lucky Obama won and we have Hillary to take over because it would be the triumph of conservative fiscal policy for decades if either election went wrong.

 

[brucewaynegretzky]

First post of the season:

SEAN FUCKING COUTURIER BITCHES!!!!!!!!!!