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PoliGAF 2014 |OT2| We need to be more like Disney World

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Having a Republican president able to restock the conservative wing of the Supreme Court would be a disaster.

Yup. Bush probably is the type of candidate republicans need to nudge them from the right wing ledge but he'll have no qualms nominating judges I can't fuck with.
 
This seems as good a time as ever to point out Clinton has a 13-point lead on Bush according to a new Marist poll. (12 against Romney and Christie, 14 against Paul)

Yes Clinton's lead will become less gaudy when the candidates are actually running, but this seems to disprove the "Hillary's numbers are ALREADY DROPPING!" meme that seems to already be going around here since she's leading by the same margins she always has.

Although it is fun to dream about what a 13 point popular vote lead would probably look like

http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_predictions.php?mapid=bJhi
 

Teggy

Member
This seems as good a time as ever to point out Clinton has a 13-point lead on Bush according to a new Marist poll. (12 against Romney and Christie, 14 against Paul)

Yes Clinton's lead will become less gaudy when the candidates are actually running, but this seems to disprove the "Hillary's numbers are ALREADY DROPPING!" meme that seems to already be going around here since she's leading by the same margins she always has.

Although it is fun to dream about what a 13 point popular vote lead would probably look like

http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_predictions.php?mapid=bJhi

Didn't the Quinnipiac poll from that 538 article show her down to Romney by 1? How can these be so different?
 
Didn't the Quinnipiac poll from that 538 article show her down to Romney by 1? How can these be so different?
Quinnipiac isn't the most reliable pollster honestly. They get good results in their home states (CT, NY) but everywhere else is kind of hit or miss.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Quinnipiac isn't the most reliable pollster honestly. They get good results in their home states (CT, NY) but everywhere else is kind of hit or miss.

Also, polling CT isn't very hard. Our (and I use our because I grew up there) population numbers are fairly consistent and there hasn't been any huge demographic changes in the past 10 years.

I wouldn't be surprised if we lost another congressman in this upcoming census.
 

HylianTom

Banned
This seems as good a time as ever to point out Clinton has a 13-point lead on Bush according to a new Marist poll. (12 against Romney and Christie, 14 against Paul)

Yes Clinton's lead will become less gaudy when the candidates are actually running, but this seems to disprove the "Hillary's numbers are ALREADY DROPPING!" meme that seems to already be going around here since she's leading by the same margins she always has.

Although it is fun to dream about what a 13 point popular vote lead would probably look like

http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_predictions.php?mapid=bJhi

I would love to see how the right reacts if she were to maintain even one third of that lead for the whole campaign. Would they still be able delude themselves into thinking they'll win ("Gallup shows them in a dead heat!") like they did with the Bradley Effect and unskewing? And if they knew defeat was coming, would this depress turnout?

(I wish work was slower today. I'm sure FreeRepublic is having kittens right now over all of this Jeb-Mania)
 
I would love to see how the right reacts if she were to maintain even one third of that lead for the whole campaign. Would they still be able delude themselves into thinking they'll win ("Gallup shows them in a dead heat!") like they did with the Bradley Effect and unskewing? And if they knew defeat was coming, would this depress turnout?

(I wish work was slower today. I'm sure FreeRepublic is having kittens right now over all of this Jeb-Mania)
I like how Republicans bringing up the Bradley Effect is basically admitting the country is racist.

"Don't worry guys! They're only saying they'll vote for the black guy because of societal pressure! They'll back mighty whitey on election day!"

But since they lost and Hillary is white it doesn't really matter.

If Hillary has a strong lead throughout the campaign expect the general right-wing reaction to go like this:

1 - "We're only x months out, things can change!"
2 - "The polls are wrong!"
3 - "NO, FUCK, AMERICA ELECTED ANOTHER COMMUNIST, I'M MOVING TO MEXICO"
4 - (next day) "Boy, that sure was a squeaker wasn't it! As Republicans we'll have to look at ourselves and think hard about what led us to another close (it wasn't) defeat"
5 - They don't

Like clockwork.
 

Tim-E

Member
I still don't think a "lol Clinton wins" mentality over the next two years is good for the party. A competitive primary made Obama a better candidate in the general, and it isn't like Hillary is without fault in campaigning. The Democratic Party has a built-in advantage on general elections, but it isn't impossible to see Hillary (or any Democrat) lose.

Regardless, I don't like the Clintons a whole lot outside of Bill being able to give a great speech. I'd gladly throw my vote and financial support to her campaign in a general election, but I'm going to hold out hope for a contentious primary first before I line up behind her.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Jeb vs Hillary??

As if America hasn't had enough of the Bush and Clinton clan.

Where will the excitement be if we have a redux 1992 campaign. The record of Bush is catastrophic and yet Jeb if he survives the primary will have a 50/50 chance of winning in the general election by beating out the potential first women president.
 

HylianTom

Banned
I still don't think a "lol Clinton wins" mentality over the next two years is good for the party. A competitive primary made Obama a better candidate in the general, and it isn't like Hillary is without fault in campaigning. The Democratic Party has a built-in advantage on general elections, but it isn't impossible to see Hillary (or any Democrat) lose.

Regardless, I don't like the Clintons a whole lot outside of Bill being able to give a great speech. I'd gladly throw my vote and financial support to her campaign in a general election, but I'm going to hold out hope for a contentious primary first before I line up behind her.
Agreed, for the most part.

I'd love a decent, amicable primary challenge from the left for Hillary (similar to the 2000 Gore-Bradley match), if only to get her to voice commitment to progressive causes. Warren would be an ideal president as far as I'm concerned, but having her in the role of "the Senate's liberal lion" would be fantastic as well.
 

Tamanon

Banned
Jeb is hands-down the best possible candidate for the Republicans. He probably won't win the primary, but he's their best shot, IMO.

If he made it through, you'd see a lot of people having to make difficult choices, especially if he successfully moves on Immigration.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Jeb is hands-down the best possible candidate for the Republicans. He probably won't win the primary, but he's their best shot, IMO.

If he made it through, you'd see a lot of people having to make difficult choices, especially if he successfully moves on Immigration.


3rd Bush or first woman?

not a hard choice.

Did I mention 3rd Bush?
 
just stop it

No, its absolutely true.

An entire generation of voters would look at a Clinton vs Bush ticket and stay home. It laughs at the face of what people are told to think America is. A land of oppertunity and equality.

"Anyone can be president!" is the mantra taught to children. If you care enough to follow politics, you know this is bullshit, but spelt out so plainly? A flashing asterisk that says "if youre part of a political ruling family"?

It's unprecedented.
 
No, its absolutely true.

An entire generation of voters would look at a Clinton vs Bush ticket and stay home. It laughs at the face of what people are told to think America is. A land of oppertunity and equality.

"Anyone can be president!" is the mantra taught to children. If you care enough to follow politics, you know this is bullshit, but spelt out so plainly? A flashing asterisk that says "if youre part of a political ruling family"?

It's unprecedented.

Those same children, growing up with a black guy in the WH and black children living in the White House. Take that shit elsewhere.

You clearly don't know what an actual monarchy is. Bush won't get the nomination so we can dead that right now. And a Clinton winning changes nothing. The same corporatists in charge now will still be in charge. And I'll take it as I'd rather have Obamaca protected and liberal judges on benches including the SC.
 

Wilsongt

Member
You know, I didn't know if it were even possible to loathe Dick Cheney more than I already did, but his recent appearances after the CIA torture release has made my level of hatred for the man skyrocket.

Also, Obama's immigration policy is unconstitutiona; says judge in PA appointed by Bush Jr.

A federal judge in Pennsylvania ruled on Tuesday that President Barack Obama's recent executive actions on immigration are unconstitutional.

"The Court holds that the Executive Action is unconstitutional because it violates the separation of powers and the Take Care Clause of the Constitution," wrote U.S. District Judge Arthur J. Schwab, who was appointed by George W. Bush.

Schwab determined that Obama's actions — which pave the way for three-year work permits for more than 4.4 million people (those brought to the U.S. as children and undocumented parents of American citizens) — were illegal because they permit "substantive rights" for "broad categories" of individuals.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/judge-obama-immigration-action-unconstitutional
 

Tamanon

Banned
3rd Bush or first woman?

not a hard choice.

Did I mention 3rd Bush?

I think both candidates are going to have to put forth something more than just being the first woman or third Bush. Until we know more about what Hillary is actually going to be running on, I wouldn't count either out.
 
Those same children, growing up with a black guy in the WH and black children living in the White House. Take that shit elsewhere.

You clearly don't know what an actual monarchy is. Bush won't get the nomination so we can dead that right now. And a Clinton winning changes nothing. The same corporatists in charge now will still be in charge. And I'll take it as I'd rather have Obamaca protected and liberal judges on benches including the SC.

Obama didnt exactly come from hardship.

There is no guarantee that Clinton would appoint liberal judges, based off her history.

And yes, lets protect Obamacare at all costs. Those poor insurance companies need all the subsidies they can get
 

HylianTom

Banned
There is no guarantee that Clinton would appoint liberal judges, based off her history.

I've seen you say this before.. what makes you think she'd be suspect on judges?

I know that she is not Bill, but for a Third-Way/DLCer, Bill did some pretty good work in selecting judges. I've always assumed that part of the Dems' M.O. is that they would talk a good centrist game for national elections and actual governing, but in the background they'd also nominate pretty solid liberals when it came to the judiciary.
 

Wilsongt

Member
..LOLOLOLOL!

Mark Levin ripped Republicans a new one tonight as he opened his show tonight, saying that he is one inch away from leaving the Republican Party.

He starts in hard, asking Republicans if they think this is a joke, if they think they can just lie to Republicans and conservatives with impunity about defunding Obamacare and fighting Obama’s illegal amnesty.
 
Obama didnt exactly come from hardship.

There is no guarantee that Clinton would appoint liberal judges, based off her history.

And yes, lets protect Obamacare at all costs. Those poor insurance companies need all the subsidies they can get

Being raised by a single mom, including living poor in a third world country, doesn't count as hardship? Then essentially being abandoned by your mom to be raised by your grandparents, struggling to make it in New York...etc.

I'm done. Obama didn't have an easy childhood, and as I'm pretty sure you're white I don't feel like hearing your views on the difference between Obama's blackness experience being different from others.
 

ivysaur12

Banned

Connecticut has seen a 0.6% population growth since 2010 and its demographic % ace been relatively unchanged since the 2000 census. That, to me, is the definition of stable in the sense that it's not hard to poll because it's so consistent compared to other states with more fluctuating demographic changes.

Do you have something else to add besides a bizarre and unnecessary remark on the fact that I consider myself from Connecticut after living there for 18 years or can we forget this and move on?
 
Being raised by a single mom, including living poor in a third world country, doesn't count as hardship? Then essentially being abandoned by your mom to be raised by your grandparents, struggling to make it in New York...etc.

I'm done. Obama didn't have an easy childhood, and as I'm pretty sure you're white I don't feel like hearing your views on the difference between Obama's blackness experience being different from others.

Getting into Harvard on legacy status isn't exactly a common experience for the masses.

Living in a third world country is not a hardship if you have money. He probably had maids.

Incidentally, I was born in a third world country and lived most of my life in then, including Hugo Chavezs Venezuela. So much for my white suburban experience in America.
 
Putting all the eggs into a petro basket. What can go wrong? Youd think theyd have seen this coming from Sarah's house...

A crash in Alaska North Slope crude prices that echoes a worldwide drop in the price of oil has raised the possibility of multibillion-dollar deficits in a state where 88 cents of every dollar spent by state government comes from oil production.

Alaska crude hit a four-year low of $60.80 a barrel Thursday, a collapse that threatens jobs, public services and some of the ambitious infrastructure projects needed to harness and navigate the state's vast natural landscape.

State officials are now projecting a $3.5-billion shortfall in funding the state's original spending plans. Across the U.S., oil-producing states are feeling the pinch. Louisiana is mulling cuts in youth programs and road maintenance to fill a $180-million funding gap. New Mexico recently cut its projected revenue growth in half. North Dakota is counting on a rebound in oil prices, higher taxes and increased production to help balance its budget.

None are facing a situation quite so precarious as Alaska's, because no other state relies so heavily on oil production.

"This isn't the hand we thought we would be dealt, quite honestly," said Walker, an independent who defeated Republican Sean Parnell in November. "Nobody anticipated this."


http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-alaska-oil-20141216-story.html


DRILL BABY DRILL

I for one have stocked up on lube for when the corresponding article hits the Texas papers.

....but maybe Ill put the tissues away

Alaska has about $13 billion in rainy-day savings accounts that will last four to five years at current oil prices and forecasts, provided the new administration makes "prudent reductions," said Office of Management and Budget Director Pat Pitney.

Alaskans also enjoy some of the lowest taxes in the country, with no state sales tax or income tax. Nearly every year-round resident receives an annual check paid for with earnings from a $51-billion Permanent Fund created at a time of windfall oil revenue.

Politicians here are loath to suggest that Permanent Fund revenue be tapped to pay for government, and Walker has said he'll instead focus on cutting state spending, or enacting some broad-based tax.

Naturally, its important that we cut services to students and the elderly first, its the republican way.
 
B5AsacVCQAAjrCJ.png:large
 

Owzers

Member
You know, I didn't know if it were even possible to loathe Dick Cheney more than I already did, but his recent appearances after the CIA torture release has made my level of hatred for the man skyrocket.

"Rarely has a U.S. president been so wrong, about so much, at the cost of so many" from Cheney about Obama is quite memorable. I keep going back and forth between Cheney being a troll or just completely evil.
 
"Rarely has a U.S. president been so wrong, about so much, at the cost of so many" from Cheney about Obama is quite memorable. I keep going back and forth between Cheney being a troll or just completely evil.

projecting so hard that I'm pretty sure if you checked, there'd be an Epson logo somewhere on Cheney's body
 

NeoXChaos

Member
"America is supposed to be a democracy and, as such, its citizens should not tolerate aristocratic oligarchs lightly. If Jeb Bush ran and won, there would have been no decade without a Bush in the White House since the 1970s. And no Republican ticket would have won without a Bush or a Nixon on it since 1928."

"What's needed is a fresh new start. That might translate into a vote for youth (Marco Rubio), for a new philosophical direction (Elizabeth Warren or Rand Paul) or for the elevation of a "common man" who gets the middle-class (Chris Christie)."

"What I doubt it'll mean is the keys of the White House returning to the Bush family. For all their undoubted service to the presidency, they don't own it."

http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/29/opinion/stanley-jeb-bush/
 

Amir0x

Banned
haha reading all these articles about Cruz having to apologize to Republicans for his "fuck up" this past weekend has been almost more satisfying than getting those extra appointments through.










Almost.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpoli...on-fighting-the-banks-and-her-political-futur


She's going out of her way to keep the door open.


I remember Obama being adamant about saying "no" in 04-06.


Hell, he was more forceful and specific about saying he wouldn't run in 08 than Warren is now.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/22/AR2006102200220.html
Monday, October 23, 2006

"Given the responses that I've been getting over the last several months, I have thought about the possibility, but I have not thought about it with the seriousness and depth that I think is required," Obama said on NBC's "Meet the Press." "After November 7th, I'll sit down and consider it, and if at some point, I change my mind, I will make a public announcement and everybody will be able to go at me."
He announced his run the next February.

I can see Warren keeping it off the table before the elections, but it's quickly reaching the point where you'd think she might start hinting at it, or even having "leaks from inside sources" saying she's thinking about it.

Her leaving the door open at all could be just for the off chance Clinton ends up unable to run or if some billionaire plopped down 100 million dollars on a Warren PAC or some unlikely event like that.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
I don't see Warren running -- it's not quite the right environment.

I do see a Gillibrand/Warren/Klobuchar primary somewhere in the future.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Jeb is hands-down the best possible candidate for the Republicans. He probably won't win the primary, but he's their best shot, IMO.

If he made it through, you'd see a lot of people having to make difficult choices, especially if he successfully moves on Immigration.

I can't believe America would be ready for another Bush in the White House again.

I still think Carson is the GOPs best chance.

He's actually smart (pediatric neurosurgeon), has a well-known story, he's a minority (a fact which could possibly draw some votes from the middle), believes the government should provide catastrophic health care at the expense of private insurance companies, etc. People like him. He can appeal to the general public. I think this board is foolish to discount him so quickly.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I can't believe America would be ready for another Bush in the White House again.

I still think Carson is the GOPs best chance.

He's actually smart (pediatric neurosurgeon), has a well-known story, he's a minority (a fact which could possibly draw some votes from the middle), believes the government should provide catastrophic health care at the expense of private insurance companies, etc. People like him. He can appeal to the general public. I think this board is foolish to discount him so quickly.

You act like he's never said anything stupid before. He's not gonna pull the black vote just because he's black either. On paper he looks fine, but he's like Christie in that even a modicum of research will show a bunch of issues just waiting to come out and sink him.
 
I can't believe America would be ready for another Bush in the White House again.

I still think Carson is the GOPs best chance.

He's actually smart (pediatric neurosurgeon), has a well-known story, he's a minority (a fact which could possibly draw some votes from the middle), believes the government should provide catastrophic health care at the expense of private insurance companies, etc. People like him. He can appeal to the general public. I think this board is foolish to discount him so quickly.

lol

Carson is an extremist who has largely been insulated by right wing media. Turn him loose amongst the traditional media and he would implode daily. He's smart yet has not introduced a single idea or policy since taking center stage. Because of his lack of experience he'd have to rely on a policy group of advisers, and because the "good" ones will be taken by Christie/Jeb/Walker/Romney/etc, he'll be left with the Heritage Foundation/Gingrich bomb throwers.

Jeb Bush wouldn't work solely because of what he'd have to do and say to win the nomination. If not for that sure, I would be concerned.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
You act like he's never said anything stupid before. He's not gonna pull the black vote just because he's black either. On paper he looks fine, but he's like Christie in that even a modicum of research will show a bunch of issues just waiting to come out and sink him.


well Hillary's not getting 60% of the women vote either even though I agree with your premise.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
You act like he's never said anything stupid before. He's not gonna pull the black vote just because he's black either. On paper he looks fine, but he's like Christie in that even a modicum of research will show a bunch of issues just waiting to come out and sink him.

lol

Carson is an extremist who has largely been insulated by right wing media. Turn him loose amongst the traditional media and he would implode daily. He's smart yet has not introduced a single idea or policy since taking center stage. Because of his lack of experience he'd have to rely on a policy group of advisers, and because the "good" ones will be taken by Christie/Jeb/Walker/Romney/etc, he'll be left with the Heritage Foundation/Gingrich bomb throwers.

Jeb Bush wouldn't work solely because of what he'd have to do and say to win the nomination. If not for that sure, I would be concerned.

It just seems people keep throwing the "but he'll say something stupid!" excuse out there and I think that's a mistake. Everybody seems to think he's the next Herman Cain because he's a middle-aged black man.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
It just seems people keep throwing the "but he'll say something stupid!" excuse out there and I think that's a mistake. Everybody seems to think he's the next Herman Cain because he's a middle-aged black man.

He's already said stupid shit, he's said some really fucked up stuff that should disqualify him but like PD said the right wing media has him pretty well insulated at this point. We aren't talking about hypothetical comments but stuff he has already said. He's like Christie and Walker in that he's pretty well insulated and is kept away from the bigger stages and only brought out on occasion.
 

Teggy

Member
It just seems people keep throwing the "but he'll say something stupid!" excuse out there and I think that's a mistake. Everybody seems to think he's the next Herman Cain because he's a middle-aged black man.

No, I think it's because he's already said tons of stupid things. He has many fringe ideas that few people outside of Fox news viewers have heard. Plus he has zero political or foreign policy experience.
 
It just seems people keep throwing the "but he'll say something stupid!" excuse out there and I think that's a mistake. Everybody seems to think he's the next Herman Cain because he's a middle-aged black man.

Are you familiar with his statements? He's worse than Cain. Including comparing the US under Obama to Nazi Germany...
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
He's already said stupid shit, he's said some really fucked up stuff that should disqualify him but like PD said the right wing media has him pretty well insulated at this point. We aren't talking about hypothetical comments but stuff he has already said. He's like Christie and Walker in that he's pretty well insulated and is kept away from the bigger stages and only brought out on occasion.

No, I think it's because he's already said tons of stupid things. He has many fringe ideas that few people outside of Fox news viewers have heard. Plus he has zero political or foreign policy experience.

Are you familiar with his statements? He's worse than Cain. Including comparing the US under Obama to Nazi Germany...

So he at least has what it takes to get through the GOP primary.

I'm very curious to see if the GOP has learned from last time around. When Pat Robertson of all people is saying, "by the time they get through the primary, they've said so much crazy stuff they have no chance to win in the general election," changes need to be made.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/3ffc1f3bc6ba41e5ba1df925a967ffb8/ap-carolinas-politicians-get-payouts-lender

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) — Soon after taking office, North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory and U.S. Rep. Mark Sanford of South Carolina accepted six-figure stock payouts from an online mortgage broker accused by regulators of deceiving its customers.

The two Republicans served as directors at Tree.com, the Charlotte-based corporate parent of the website LendingTree. As board members, they were entitled to large chunks of restricted company stock if they held their positions long enough. Both resigned after their election victories, which would have rendered their unvested stock worthless had the board not taken special action to provide them early payouts.

McCrory and Sanford deny they did anything improper by accepting the stock payouts, which were not fully described in their ethics statements. Their timing and total value are only being revealed now, as the result of an Associated Press investigation into the company's financial records and interviews with Tree.com officials.

Early vesting of restricted shares for departing directors is not unheard of in the corporate world.

However, more than a dozen securities lawyers and ethics experts told the AP that such stock payouts are uncommon for elected officials, and raise significant concerns. These experts gave differing opinions about whether laws were broken.

In the months after receiving his $171,071 payout of stock from Tree.com, McCrory appointed the state's banking director and a majority of the banking commissioners who regulate mortgage brokers.

McCrory spokesman Josh Ellis said there was nothing irregular about that.

"There's absolutely no conflict and nothing improper about these appointments," he said.

Some of Tree.com's payments to McCrory and Sanford weren't publicly disclosed until May 2014, when the company filed its 2013 year-end proxy statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Other details — such as the fact that Sanford received his $108,539 in Tree.com stock after taking office in Congress — have never been made public until now.

It goes on. It's pretty damning.

And I'm sure Roy Cooper is grinning in silence right now
 
In a vacuum, probably not. But him combined with an absolutely insane like a Republican congress? That's another matter.

Yup. A say, Jeb Bush/John Danforth ticket in 2000 might've done some things I dislike, but they wouldn't have tired to destroy the New Deal and Great Society.
 
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