As the first voting nears, however, the former Florida governor says he remains an optimist about the mission Im on, and an optimist about our country. In an interview Tuesday, Mr. Bush said voters rarely ask him what he derides as process questions, hardly ever. People dont say, How are you going to win? or How are you doing with the left-handed Albanian vote? or Why is Donald Trump winning? No one cares. He says the Americans he meets wonder about the economy, and retirement, and health care, and now national security and world affairsand thus the primaries may be taking a more substantive turn.
Theres no tangible evidence of that necessarily in the head-to-head polling, but polling is the last thing to go. But I see it, and I sense it, and people want to know: Do you have fortitude? Mr. Bush says. These are serious times. We need a leader that has a steady hand and has a clear vision. Whether thats me or not, Im going to work hard to make it so.
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The Paris and San Bernardino terror attacks concentrated minds, in Mr. Bushs estimate, amid general apprehension about the advance of Islamic State, the Syrian civil war, the nuclear deal with Iran and Vladimir Putins revanchism. As he sees it, this global decay is a consequence of President Obamas lack of conviction in the worth and purposes of American power and influence. Sometimes I get a sense that the president is so reluctant to engage that the only consistency he has is his reluctance, Mr. Bush says.
Consistency in foreign policy is a theme Mr. Bush invokes again and again, which he means in two ways. One is simple clarity about how the U.S. will conduct itself overseaspolitical, diplomatic, economic and militaryto promote order and stability. The other sense is more subtle. Mr. Bush also defines consistency as having reflected deeply about strategy, priorities and philosophy and formed a coherent if adaptive view of geopolitics. I think its important to think things through beforehand, he says.
It requires constantly adjusting to the fact that the world changes. So we cant fight the Cold War at the same time were fighting whatever were calling this war of our times, of Islamist terrorism, he says. All the same, the question for a commander in chief is in the midst of having to deal with things, do you have the fortitude? Do you have the guts, do you have the spine, whatever you want to call it? Do you have a clear vision on how to get there? Mr. Obama and for that matter Mrs. Clinton, he says, are reactive: They bounce off the walls, its all political, its all spin.
On that inconsistency point, Mr. Bush also has sharp words for Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, the senators who had a chance to have a more complete view on Syria prior to the Paris attacks and now are kind of adjusting based on the here and now. Mr. Cruz, he notes, used to say the U.S. didnt have a dog in the fight, didnt want to be ISISs air force, but now were going to carpet bombI dont think weve been carpet bombing in the last 50 years, since the 60s, but I assume that was an allusion to being tough. He adds that Marco now believes that there is a security interest in Syria, but he didnt at the time that it really mattered, during the chemical-weapons red line debacle of 2013.
So sick and tired of people reading a poll, or, Oh my God, someones angry, Ill make a slight little nuanced adjustment, he says. Thats the Washington world.
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What lessons does he draw from the Bush Sr. administration? The first impulse is to try to forge coalitions and consensus, that diplomatic efforts shouldnt be discounted. He notes with admiration the world-wide alliance his father built to liberate Kuwait and how much work, how much confidence and trust, how much patience, the kind of work that requires a little humility, everything necessary to do this.
My brother did it to a certain extent but not nearly to the fullest extent that Operation Desert Storm brought, he adds, unprovoked.
Secondly, Mr. Bush continues, I think needs to be clarity and consistency about what the strategy is. . . . If youre going to send people in uniform to fight for a cause, youve explained what the cause is, its a righteous cause, you believe in it, youre convinced that its the right thing to do for the security interests of our country, then unleash them for total victory. No partial victories. And then leave.
The Trump-Cruz America-first movement is often portrayed as an intellectual confrontation with traditional GOP hawks, but Mr. Bush is dismissive. The Republican Partys never been completely unified around an internationalist view, he says. When times get tough and theres a lot of anxiety, the natural tendency is to retrench a bit, but the answer isnt a retreat, and to create walls, and protectionism, and all sorts of barriers to protect us, because they wont.
As for Mr. Trump, Mr. Bush unloads. The people following and covering the campaigns? The cable shows? Theyre obsessed with Trump, and all they care about is what effect this disparaging remark will have on the campaignits all about nothing. It changes with each week. Hes Pavlov and theyre the dog, basically. Ive never seen anything quite like it.
The Trump phenomena is one part him, being this effective showman and manipulating the press like no one has ever done in modern history, phenomenal expertise with no shameon either side I guessand then the deep angst and anger people feel, the deep disaffection people feel, which is real. You gotta respect that.
Mr. Bush thinks weve entered this great disruptive era where globalization and rapid innovation and technological change is redesigning our society very quickly. Mr. Obamas failures to modernize government in response have accelerated these trends, and then, on top of that, I do think that Trump is a creature of Obama in the sense that his divisive politics is mirrored by Trumps. Two competing pessimistic views of the world. One could not exist without the other.
Mr. Bush believes, in any case, that the Trump thrill is goneor at least going. I dont think its long-lasting, because hes not offering anything to solve the problems.
