PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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HylianTom said:
Poll results from NBC, the first of the year:
Trump 35%
Cruz 18%
Rubio 13%
Carson 9%
Jeb 6%
Christie 4%
Fiorina 3%
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I've always been someone who thought Trump would fall apart but its 2016 and he's still hugely ahead. Of all the candidates who lead for a long time and then faded Dean in '04 held out the longest and even he was fading badly by the new year. If Trump drops now it'll be unprecedented in the modern primary era.
 
Roland_Gunner said:
I've always been someone who thought Trump would fall apart but its 2016 and he's still hugely ahead. Of all the candidates who lead for a long time and then faded Dean in '04 held out the longest and even he was fading badly by the new year. If Trump drops now it'll be unprecedented in the modern primary era.
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The Iowa caucuses are a couple weeks later than they were in 2004. They were on January 19th in 2004 and are on Feb 1st this year.
 
Sea Manky said:
The GOP: "We're not going to fix America."
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When you combine that statement with the party's unofficial theme for this campaign, it's really something special:
"America sucks. It's in tatters. It used to be great, and it needs to be great again."

"But we're not going to fix it. Naaaah."

===

And Trump polling well gives him the ability to say, "well, you said I'd implode after the new year. You were wrong. Yet again. #MakeAmericaGreatAgain "
 
Joe Shlabotnik said:
At this point, the sooner the primary the better for Trump. All it really means right now is that we're not in the magical "two weeks before the primaries" super-paying-attention phase yet.
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Generally I agree, but if Trump wants to win Iowa maybe a longer wait helps to see if Cruz cools/Trump gets an ad bump?
 
Makai said:
Some of you guys like to talk about Congressional elections. I barely follow that here and I probably couldn't name a single foreign legislator.
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I'm the type of geek that actually follows foreign elections, but what Maledict says upthread is true - at least in other First World nations (where most of GAF hails from), politics is fairly boring. I mean, even when conservative parties make changes I don't agree with, it's usually changing a countries policy from "something I'd love to have in the US" to "something I'd still love to have in the US."

It's still fairly consensus based, and even if you have the odd politician saying a thing that pre-Trump, would get a politicians career killed in the US, you usually find out that's a guy from a party with 5 seats in Parliament.
 
eBay Huckster said:
In other news, guess which three candidates combine for 51% of the GOP primary vote in California?

Cruz, Trump, and Fiorina. And the first two have 48%.


just like how apparently persecution complexes have become a part of the bern doctrine, but sure: tell me more about how groups that don't seem to be registering new voters or pushing beyond their 30% ceiling of disaffected white millennials in any meaningful capacity constitute the democratic grassroots
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I don't know how much to read into a California Republican primary poll, but its an interesting result none the less. Earlier this fall Cruz was barely registering and now he has taken the lead from Trump.
http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/field-polls/article53030630.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...nia_republican_presidential_primary-5322.html

It will be interesting to see if Cruz has leveraged his popularity in Iowa into momentum in other states once more polls begin to be published following the holiday lull.

0P6n8gg.png
 
adam387 said:
I agree that, on the whole, Americans are a bunch of idiots. The thing I believe is that we have to approach these problems from where Americans actually are. We have a disconnect between what we say we want, what we actually want, and what we're willing to go through to get it. That old poll that showed people on Social Security, for example, don't believe they take government benefits is a perfect example of this.

My use of that statement was more along the lines of people don't want a revolution. It's just not the way we do things, for better or worse. Then when you add the Socialist, you end up with an old man screaming about millionaires and billionaires while telling you he's going to raise your taxes. I may not know what Americans want, but I know what they don't want. We are always going to be a country of incremental change. We can't just wish that away.

I've said it before. I'm a political realist. Bernie is a risk. He's a risk I'm not willing to take, because I'm one of those people who could have everything taken away from me if one of the Clown Car gets the keys to the city. I don't think he's realistic or practical. (I also freely admit to not really liking him, so there's that too...)

IF this made no sense, forgive me. I've been up all night getting this story ready for publication. And .... I just don't know anymore. (although it's 99% sure I"m going to be featured in a piece dealing with new queer writers!)
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True, and here comes the problem I see. We are seeing changes on vast, incredible scales that this "slow cook" response to change is too slow and too problematic to handle the uprooting we often risk facing.

Does a kick climate change down the road approach really work when we need decades to actually have a plan that assures us most of the developed world is going the other way when American lifestyles, the biggest contributor to the problem, have not changed or have even been admitted that they must change? I'll throw that one out instead of the usual problem of automation I snipe about, because that one is far too obvious to use as an example where our slow actions are causing more problems, for we are not even at a point where mainstream concern has been cultivated.

Hell, you could even look at micro problems like the healthcare system that simply has too many holes the ACA cannot genuinely fix unless we have single payer as a background platform. If we're going with what Americans want, they would rather die earlier in their lives so they can go off and see their fake Big Boss in the sky than to actually promote humanism, compassion, wellbeing, and unity for people in their very society. This frightens me because it seems we are led frequently by the least among us, be it in ideas and especially ascribed authority to accomplish said ideas.

- Bernie is doomed because what he demands is an overnight paradigm shift, and there are many reasons one isn't coming. Being a slow cook is one, but I would also argue trying to assimilate to broken approaches is another. People would rather be in a boat that's sinking instead of daring to assume to get out of the boat.

- Hillary risks falling into the problem Obama has, in that any of her approaches directly with regressives will be settling for less and half-approaches because the other side is nearly beyond reason. The rest will be over their heads, and that makes the window of responses very limited.

- Any and all Republican candidates just have such a poisoned taste about the state of affairs that they believe in nostalgic values of the past, typically much worse than they are now for general people, and seem to have a strong "scorched earth" approach. This is, of course, because they are beyond reason. Many of them would blindly assume unregulated Capitalism will produce the humanistic solutions we need to get out of the race to the bottom (LOL), that Reaganomics was the best approach in the history of social order, that people genuinely are islands with free will so any fault is a character deficit, and that science is this murky "kinda not sure about things" affair to justify genuine ills that make the objective world crumble, all in the name for the symbolisms that have been confused for similar objectivity.

What bothers me most is I see no light here. No light moving forward. It's just a bunch of deranged people, caught in their own games who actively promote expanding problems, and people who merely have to deal with them, with the eyes totally off of the ball as it blows off the cliff. I consider that very dangerous.
 
Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 1h1 hour ago
The way for the "establishment" to get back on track is if whoever finishes best in NH of Rubio/Bush/Christie/Kasich goes on & others leave
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Alex Seitz-Wald ‏@aseitzwald 4m4 minutes ago
On conf call, Sanders camp takes on electability: Sanders "puts the party in a much stronger position to defeat Republicans" at all levels.
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Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 2m2 minutes ago
Same argument that Cruz is making -- extremes on left and right dubiously suggesting they are most electable
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Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 2m2 minutes ago
I agree that American elections are increasingly base-driven but Cruz or Sanders as nominee would test that proposition
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@kkondik thing is base of Dem Party is PoC. Not sure Sanders has special appeal there.

Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 2m2 minutes ago
Kyle Kondik Retweeted Armando
yes, good point -- "PoC" = nonwhite
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.
 
Trump is spending in Iowa because if he does not do well the whole facade falls apart and this is over.
 
Y2Kev said:
Trump is spending in Iowa because if he does not do well the whole facade falls apart and this is over.
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I think he just wants a clean sweep everywhere, so long as he finishes top 3 in Iowa, which has always been damn near guaranteed, nothing would change going into New Hampshire. Not that you're wrong, a bad finish will expose the whole thing, but I just think he might be looking a little further ahead is all.
 
Dan Malloy on gun control laws and the legality of them in regards to the second amendment

"We believe in freedom of religion but we don't allow human sacrifices"
 
NeoXChaos said:
Last one for Obama. Make it classy. If I am still here next year and Hillary is President I get the honors.
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I plan to do a video retrospective set to a rockin' tune, gonna start using my off time to find the proper clips to make it work. Maybe a list of accomplishments as well. Can't forget the Joe Biden over his shoulder gifs though, those just scream classy.

Aaron Strife said:
I love Obama's SOTUs with a Republican Congress.

They all boil down to "Holy shit, you goddamn assholes"
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That's generally how I go into my debate threads when I'm making them :lol
 
PBY said:
Batshit insane.

He's not wrong in one respect though - I do appreciate the sentiment that the pro-immigration side tends to be largely elites telling unskilled/low income laborers what's "best" for them in some ways. I really do appreciate that.

But its still shitty.
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Because the families of those and the immigrants themselves don't matter? Its only the elites?

One could easily turn this on its head and say all your lambasting is the elites don't want to block others from having others the same opportunities they did.

Immigrants aren't what's screwing up the labor market. Weak labor laws and horrible fiscal policy are
 
Aaron Strife said:
Oh yeah. The debate and the budget.

Obama needs to make sweeping overtures to Paul Ryan thanking him for his bipartisanship and cooperation.
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Yup.

Uncle Joe smiling broadly, maybe giving a thumbs-up.

Calling on Congress to give itself a big round of applause for the wonderful budget they passed.

Elbow the GOP's primary voters a bit. Add some gasoline to the anti-establishment fire.
 
NYCmetsfan said:
Because the families of those and the immigrants themselves don't matter? Its only the elites?

One could easily turn this on its head and say all your lambasting is the elites don't want to block others from having others the same opportunities they did.

Immigrants aren't what's screwing up the labor market. Weak labor laws and horrible fiscal policy are
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Of course the immigrant families matter, thats why I think the ad is shitty and I'm pro-immigration and think the GOP stance on this is nuts.

That said, I can admit that immigrant labor - if it does indeed affect the labor market in some way - doesn't affect me in the way that it does low-income workers in certain regions. And I can appreciate that.
 
RastaMentality said:
This one isn't too out of the norm for a republican ad, though.
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It shows how far we've fallen.

"This guy didn't reflexively oppose everything the sitting president did, and accepted his help during a national disaster instead of telling him to go fuck himself. Traitor!!!"

The fact that this is seen as an effective ad is just tragic.
 
Jack Remington said:
It shows how far we've fallen.

"This guy didn't reflexively oppose everything the sitting president did, and accepted his help during a national disaster instead of telling him to go fuck himself. Traitor!!!"

The fact that this is seen as an effective ad is just tragic.
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I'm just not shocked at all. We knew exactly what those Christie pics were going to be used for. Painting a candidate as a friend of Obama's has been really effective thus far.
 
Polari said:
Depriving ISIS of their single biggest source of revenue?
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Don't need to have our guys to physical take it over to do that when you bomb certain portions of it to hurt the revenue, or use local forces to retake their oil field and close of the take the ISIS borders.

pigeon said:
Maybe the takeaway here is that you've been misjudging the other stuff Trump says. It all relies on the assumption that the listener is too stupid to understand how the world actually works.
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That's probably true.
 
Averon said:
Looks like PD's ban turned into a perm.

End of an era.
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Fuck.

Edit: Can a mod overturn his perm? Who will I discuss GoT now over PMs :( its ridiculous. Just last week I asked him to please stay unbanned until GoT premieres. Guess it really was too much to ask.
 
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