Oh yeah a candidate who's made fun of women, Hispanics, Muslims, Asians, people with disabilities, etc will cause a depressed turnout. Yep. that seems likely.
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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops
- Thread starter Diablos
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Oh yeah a candidate who's made fun of women, Hispanics, Muslims, Asians, people with disabilities, etc will cause a depressed turnout. Yep. that seems likely.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Trump will be the candidate. He'll smack Hillary so hard that only the dedicated will show up on both sides. Liberals tune out, independents tune out, young people tune out, poor people tune out when that happens.
Even if she squeaks by, the diminished turnout will crush Democrats downballot, meaning NOTHING will change except we aren't running backwards so much as being pushed backwards. Whoopity doo! We're still going backwards. Relentlessly backwards.
In a world where Trump is the nominee (which is looking more and more like our world), "the dedicated" will consist of every person that does not want to see a President Trump. And that's a lot of people. I wouldn't be worried.
He would only smack Sanders twice as hard. Or equally hard if you want to look at best case scenarios.
Strictly speaking on optics, I think those arguing in favor of Hillary's strengths underestimate just how damaging being part of the establishment is in this election.
In a Bernie v Trump debate, you have two populist candidates who aren't afraid to get loud and are both decently witty. It comes down to who comes off better in the exchange. It becomes more meritocratic.
In a Clinton v Trump debate, it's about the GOP having put up the candidate that couldn't be denied because the people wanted him so badly vs. the inevitable one who was forced upon the American people. That's bad optics in my opinion. It's a david v goliath story.
That said, I think a Clinton v Cruz debate favors Clinton, because that debate then becomes about policy. Clinton excels at articulating policy firmly and clearly.
In a Bernie v Cruz debate, Cruz may get the best of him. I could see Bernie getting flustered with Cruz' complete disregard for, ya know, reality and just coming across as angry in the exchange.
TL;DR: if Clinton is the nominee then Cruz is her easiest opponent. If Bernie wins Trump is his easiest opponent. In my opinion, of course. If there's polling to the contrary I'd be happy to look over it.
soul creator
Member
I still get Ted Cruz emails because I guess I did some automated "everyone mail your Senator!" thing back when I lived in Texas:
I'm actually weirdly impressed how he sticks so relentlessly to the "Obama can't even say radical Islamic terrorism!" soundbyte. It's like some Manchurian candidate passphrase shit he's doing, I swear. "Would you kindly...?"
Greetings,
This week, President Obama delivered his final State of the Union address, and once again, he demonstrated how out of touch he is with reality. We have had at least eight ISIS-inspired attacks on innocent Americans, including law enforcement, yet the President refuses to acknowledge the root cause of these attacks, radical Islamic terrorism. Rather than taking the opportunity to condemn the catastrophic Iranian nuclear deal, President Obama neglected the 10 American sailors Iran took hostage on Tuesday.
We need strong American leadership to combat radical Islam. I remain committed to taking basic steps to protect our country and the American people.
Please keep reading for an update on the latest in the Senate.
Keep Texas Strong,
Ted Cruz
I'm actually weirdly impressed how he sticks so relentlessly to the "Obama can't even say radical Islamic terrorism!" soundbyte. It's like some Manchurian candidate passphrase shit he's doing, I swear. "Would you kindly...?"
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Trump is more appealing as a populist for Americans. Sanders brand of populism is more in tune with Europe or Canada but Americans are way more likely to listen to Trump talk about cutting taxes, going after ISIS, building walls, and bringing back jobs than a guy who has to explain tax increases to justify bigger government. That just doesn't jive with the America I've known for all these years.
disastermouse
Banned
But it won't diminish the turnout. When more people show up, Democrats and liberals of all stripes win.He would only smack Sanders twice as hard. Or equally hard if you want to look at best case scenarios.
No one believes that Hillary 'means it' anymore. The pragmatism that's served her so well thus far is an anchor around her neck. Why do you think Obama stomped her in '08? 'Mi Abeula'! Dude, really? How many more of those do you think The Donald will be able to tear apart with a simple off the cuff remark? Only all of them. All he has to do is get your natural constituency to not show up. She's got the African American vote, but do you really think they'll show up for her like they did for Obama? She had Chelsea attack Sanders' plan for single payer like it was some sort of nefarious attack on Obamacare - the underlying message being 'Obamacare is all you'll get'. It sounded so unbelievably calculated and no one believes it.
Her whole message is 'there's very little we can actually get done'. Oh yeah, people will line up around the block to vote for that (and they'll have to due to successful Republican attacks on the franchise that specifically target your consituency). Wanna blame the congress? OK, who was asleep at the wheel and forgot that state houses determine gerrymandering lines every ten years? Who gutted Dean's 50 state strategy?
Pragmatic centrist Democrats, that's who. And she was there the whole time.
Meanwhile, Trump gets to slam her for corporate money all day and night because his candidacy is self-funded. A Republican gets to hit your candidate over an otherwise 'both sides' abortion of electorate will and free speech.
Let's say lean R voters abandon the part and vote for Clinton? You think they'll ever let her forget it? You think they'll let her pass anything more liberal than maybe only turning select parts of the Arabian desert to glass? Nope. If she wins with 'lean R' voters, she's gotta go Republican lite. And in four years when the Republicans wake the fuck back up and select a non-lunatic, the slow slide backwards picks up the pace again.
I disagree. I think Trump would be way easier than Cruz for Clinton. Cruz is actually really smart. Clinton and Cruz are both lawyers, but Cruz seems to have a lot more experience even arguing cases in front of the Supreme Court. Clinton would just be able to logically tear apart Trump's arguments (which wouldn't play as well to a more mainstream, diverse audience anyway). She might get out-maneuvered in a debate with Cruz though.In a Clinton v Trump debate, it's about the GOP having put up the candidate that couldn't be denied because the people wanted him so badly vs. the inevitable one who was forced upon the American people. That's bad optics in my opinion. It's a david v goliath story.
That said, I think a Clinton v Cruz debate favors Clinton, because that debate then becomes about policy. Clinton excels at articulating policy firmly and clearly.
TL;DR: if Clinton is the nominee then Cruz is her easiest opponent. If Bernie wins Trump is his easiest opponent. In my opinion, of course. If there's polling to the contrary I'd be happy to look over it.
Jack Remington
Banned
Pretty sure that as the Secretary of State, Hillary had nothing to do with the Democrats' awful 2010 campaign.
disastermouse
Banned
Yes and the electorate is sophisticated enough to know that. I rest assured in your confidence in the American electorate, but I don't share it.Pretty sure that as the Secretary of State, Hillary had nothing to do with the Democrats' awful 2010 campaign.
She answered '9-11' on a question about her ties to Wall Street. That screams 'principled and earnest', dammit.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Trump is more appealing as a populist for Americans. Sanders brand of populism is more in tune with Europe or Canada but Americans are way more likely to listen to Trump talk about cutting taxes, going after ISIS, building walls, and bringing back jobs than a guy who has to explain tax increases to justify bigger government. That just doesn't jive with the America I've known for all these years.
It's a tough sell. The optimist in me, though, wants to believe banning muslims from entering the country is a tougher sell.
I disagree. I think Trump would be way easier than Cruz for Clinton. Cruz is actually really smart. Clinton and Cruz are both lawyers, but Cruz seems to have a lot more experience even arguing cases in front of the Supreme Court. Clinton would just be able to logically tear apart Trump's arguments (which wouldn't play as well to a more mainstream, diverse audience anyway). She might get out-maneuvered in a debate with Cruz though.
Cruz is an exceptional debater. That said, Clinton is great as well. I feel like a debate between the two then becomes about whose ideas seem better to the average voter. On that front, I can't imagine a majority of the American electorate shifting far enough right to back Cruz on any of his positions, no matter how well articulated.
My concern with a Clinton v Trump debate isn't that she couldn't logically tear him apart, but that Trump is waaaaay better at playing the soundbite game. Even Bernie has gotten in better one-liners than Hillary in every debate. "I'm not much of a socialist compared to Eisenhower", etc. All it would take is one or two solid uppercuts to Hillary and any 90-second, detailed, policy-oriented response Hillary gives would get lost in the coverage of Trump saying whatever sly remark he pulls out of his ass. I'm sure not many people saw his new york values rebuttal coming last night. Cruz sure didn't. My concern is that Hillary comes ultra-prepared for a certain narrative and then Trump catches her with her pants down from a completely different angle. If it can happen to Cruz, who is in my opinion the best debater across either party, it can happen to Clinton. Bernie, I think, is better equipped to go punch for punch in that scenario.
Trump is more appealing as a populist for Americans. Sanders brand of populism is more in tune with Europe or Canada but Americans are way more likely to listen to Trump talk about cutting taxes, going after ISIS, building walls, and bringing back jobs than a guy who has to explain tax increases to justify bigger government. That just doesn't jive with the America I've known for all these years.
i'm worried about the clinton/trump debates being clinton being smiles and trying to be presidential and 'above it all' while trump goes on his 'LOOK, WE JUST NEED TO DO GOOD THINGS AGAIN. IT'S NOT THAT HARD. WE JUST HAVE TO DO GOOD THINGS. THE CURRENT THINGS ARE DUMB AND THOSE PEOPLE ARE STUPID.' and then i would expect a major audience to eat that shit up because this guy isn't like the other politicians and he says he's going to fix things!
i just hope his unfavorables among independents stay high. reaaaaaally just hoping that he can get nailed early for all his remarks in the primary race.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
i'm worried about the clinton/trump debates being clinton being smiles and trying to be presidential and 'above it all' while trump goes on his 'LOOK, WE JUST NEED TO DO GOOD THINGS AGAIN. IT'S NOT THAT HARD. WE JUST HAVE TO DO GOOD THINGS. THE CURRENT THINGS ARE DUMB AND THOSE PEOPLE ARE STUPID.' and then i would expect a major audience to eat that shit up because this guy isn't like the other politicians and he says he's going to fix things!
i just hope his unfavorables among independents stay high. reaaaaaally just hoping that he can get nailed early for all his remarks in the primary race.
Exactly. Contrasted to Trump's off the cuff style, Hillary Clinton runs the risk of coming across as a pre-recorded, focus-tested series of automated responses. If that happens, it doesn't matter what she's saying. It will look like a real person debating a hologram. That's not an insult to Hillary, that's hard advice she needs to consider. I'm still firmly devoted to my belief that the demographics just aren't there for any GOP candidate, but at the same time I'd like to keep that risk as slim as possible.
Exactly. Contrasted to Trump's off the cuff style, Hillary Clinton runs the risk of coming across as a pre-recorded, focus-tested series of automated responses. If that happens, it doesn't matter what she's saying. It will look like a real person debating a hologram. That's not an insult to Hillary, that's hard advice she needs to consider. I'm still firmly devoted to my belief that the demographics just aren't there for any GOP candidate, but at the same time I'd like to keep that risk as slim as possible.
yep. arnold schwarzenegger basically did the same thing in 2003 and i think because things weren't that different, californians voted the incumbent at the next election in 2006. arnold was just kind of... there, though. i think trump would do some damage to the country, especially in the form of judges. i'm sure scalia would peace out (and clarence thomas would vanish into thin air), kennedy would retire, and ginsburg would too. that's kind of a nightmare scenario.
disastermouse
Banned
The people who say that Trump can't be president maybe don't remember what people said about Reagan, another showman with bad hair.
Jack Remington
Banned
Schwarzenegger was a fine governor. Much better than the man he replaced. Plus the guy was very moderate. In 2016 he'd probably be a Democrat.
The people who say that Trump can't be president maybe don't remember what people said about Reagan, another showman with bad hair.
Reagan's first election had massive Dem infighting helping him out.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
How did Reagan have bad hair? The guy was 70 years old and had a full head of hair like he was still a teenager. If only we could all be so lucky.
disastermouse
Banned
Right. It wasn't the malaise speech, or a fuel crisis, or hostages in Iran. It was Democrat infighting.Reagan's first election had massive Dem infighting helping him out.
If you wanna blame infighting, I think you need to find another party.
disastermouse
Banned
Yes. I hear it was bulletproof too. Reagan was mightily mocked for his hair.How did Reagan have bad hair? The guy was 70 years old and had a full head of hair like he was still a teenager. If only we could all be so lucky.
Black Republican
Member
i couldnt imagine a Bernie v Donald debate, Bernie would get so mad he'd just storm off the stage or refuse to speak
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
In a sane country Hillary would perform like 1984 Reagan against Trump, but that's not the world we live in. He still can't win though.Trump against Hillary would turn every single suburban lean R into a frenzy. He. Cannot. Win. The. General.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Ted Cruz is going to be within walking distance of my house Tuesday. Should I do this?
I'm not even joking when I say if I ever was unfortunate to be in his presence that i would tell him to eat a bag of dicks and choke on them.
User 463088
Banned
Ted Cruz is going to be within walking distance of my house Tuesday. Should I do this?
I wouldn't walk across the street to piss on him if he was on fire. That dude makes my skin crawl. He's a whole different type of asshole.I mean, I don't like Christie, Jeb!, or the rest of them. But...my disgust over Cruz is rivaled only by my disgust over Fuckabee.
Manmademan
Member
Ok. Nate has fully backpedaled
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-some-gop-candidates-arent-taking-the-fight-to-trump/
He was wrong because GOP establishment didn't do shit.
As we all knew he would, since his opposition to Trump was based not in any kind of facts or data (as the site claims is it's mission) but instead fantasyland wishful thinking where the republican party leadership ISNT completely dysfunctional, and the base consists mostly of perfectly rational people who fall in line for whoever has the most ad dollars.
This theory has holes big enough to drive a truck through and we all know what they are. It is typical of modern libertarian thinking, which is also similarly unworkable for the same reasons. Nate's personal political preferences have been undermining his actual political analysis since the primaries started.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Kasich was in the building across the street and Jeb! a three minute drive away back in November. Neither is so awful I would say anything.I wouldn't walk across the street to piss on him if he was on fire. That dude makes my skin crawl. He's a whole different type of asshole.I mean, I don't like Christie, Jeb!, or the rest of them. But...my disgust over Cruz is rivaled only by my disgust over Fuckabee.
User 463088
Banned
Kasich was in the building across the street and Jeb! a three minute drive away back in November. Neither is so awful I would say anything.
I have a few words for Kasich, but they're not so full of ether that I couldn't control myself. Until he expanded Medicaid, I was ready to freaking tear into him. Amazing how low the fruit is, really, when doing the sensible thing seems like a giant act of benevolence.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
God Obama knows how to do diplomacy. If not for Syria he'd be the best pres on foreign policy in a long long time
Mrs. Manky
Banned
Well... to be fair he was their Senator for hundreds of years.
To be fair, that at Kasich who said that. The Governor of OHIO.
I swear, General Sherman needs to come back from the dead and choke Kasich out.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
I really like this.
Dixon's Jet
Banned
It's an obscenely low bar though lol.God Obama knows how to do diplomacy. If not for Syria he'd be the best pres on foreign policy in a long long time
disastermouse
Banned
It's actually still funny, in a gallows humor sort of way.That would be goddamn hilarious if it wasn't so frightening.
What do you guys all do for a living? I'm an RN. I wade through open wounds, hopeless diagnoses, and the most dysfunctional crazypants systems you could ever imagine. You gotta laugh or it will crush you. You have to come to terms with being the least important person in your daily work life.
I was derping around and made this just to get an uncluttered perspective of the Dem primary.
Looking at this and remembering how Obama just edged out Hillary makes me extremely doubtful about Bernie's chances of winning the primary. He has to either keep all the Obama share, or if he loses some of the Obama share he has to try and gain something from Hillary's column.
We sort of think that Trump will win now, but what if he doesn't reach the minimum number of delegates?
Code:
Hillary Obama Hillary 16 Bernie
--------------------------------------------------------------
Arizona Alaska
Arkansas Colorado
California Connecticut
Florida DC
Indiana Delaware
Kentucky Georgia
Massachusetts Hawaii
Michigan Idaho
Nevada Illinois
New Hampshire Iowa
New Jersey Kansas
New Mexico Louisiana
New York Maine
Ohio Maryland
Oklahoma Minnesota
Pennsylvania Mississippi
Rhode Island Missouri
South Dakota Montana
Tennessee Nebraska
Texas North Carolina
West Virginia North Dakota
Oregon
South Carolina
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
Wisconsin
WyomingWe sort of think that Trump will win now, but what if he doesn't reach the minimum number of delegates?
disastermouse
Banned
In the general. Not the primary. I think she's going to win the primary.She's neck and neck with a self described socialist... In two of his best three states! But by all means, even though he might lose one, she's just unelectable.
User 463088
Banned
Kasich made sure that only white areas got SNAP work requirement waivers, and he lionized Strom Thurmond in the debate. I don't have any words for him, unless fists are words.
I spare that much hatred only because, without Kasich, I probably would have been in ICU for a hell of a long time (if not worse). Without the Medicaid expansion, I would have been completely screwed at a point in my life where I didn't have the ability to afford a walk in clinic appointment let alone surgery.
So, I hate him...but I temper my hate with a teaspoon of relief for him doing the right thing for a change.
disastermouse
Banned
Yes. Black people and poor people are spit on in this country and they have the lowest turnouts. Young people have more to be pissed off about than any generation in decades and they never show up either.Oh yeah a candidate who's made fun of women, Hispanics, Muslims, Asians, people with disabilities, etc will cause a depressed turnout. Yep. that seems likely.
Anger will depress turnout. At least among sensible people. Good people are good because they're sensitive to the struggles of others. That same sensitivity causes more avoidant behavior than confrontational behavior. It's exactly the lack of self-examination and un examined righteousness that liberals don't have and conservatives do have that causes them to tune out. Conservatives vote on fear. Liberals rarely do.
I'm a programmer. That sounds like my job.It's actually still funny, in a gallows humor sort of way.
What do you guys all do for a living? I'm an RN. I wade through open wounds, hopeless diagnoses, and the most dysfunctional crazypants systems you could ever imagine. You gotta laugh or it will crush you. You have to come to terms with being the least important person in your daily work life.
I spare that much hatred only because, without Kasich, I probably would have been in ICU for a hell of a long time (if not worse). Without the Medicaid expansion, I would have been completely screwed at a point in my life where I didn't have the ability to afford a walk in clinic appointment let alone surgery.
So, I hate him...but I temper my hate with a teaspoon of relief for him doing the right thing for a change.
Kasich does just enough good that he can trick everyone into thinking he's "moderate". He's in the top tier of candidates that would be worst for the country.
So looking forward to the end of his political career.
User 463088
Banned
I was derping around and made this just to get an uncluttered perspective of the Dem primary.
Looking at this and remembering how Obama just edged out Hillary makes me extremely doubtful about Bernie's chances of winning the primary. He has to either keep all the Obama share, or if he loses some of the Obama share he has to try and gain something from Hillary's column.Code:Hillary Obama Hillary 16 Bernie -------------------------------------------------------------- Arizona Alaska Arkansas Colorado California Connecticut Florida DC Indiana Delaware Kentucky Georgia Massachusetts Hawaii Michigan Idaho Nevada Illinois New Hampshire Iowa New Jersey Kansas New Mexico Louisiana New York Maine Ohio Maryland Oklahoma Minnesota Pennsylvania Mississippi Rhode Island Missouri South Dakota Montana Tennessee Nebraska Texas North Carolina West Virginia North Dakota Oregon South Carolina Utah Vermont Virginia Washington Wisconsin Wyoming
We sort of think that Trump will win now, but what if he doesn't reach the minimum number of delegates?
DC
Georgia
Illinois
Louisiana
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Maryland
Are all going to be demographically problematic for Bernie. That's why I get frustrated when people act as though his only demographically challenging state is SC. Unless he can limit the margins in these states, he's completely screwed.
Missouri only went for Obama by like 1.5% points, so I would be apt to add that to the list. Michigan and Florida actually count this time which benefits Hillary
The most important thing is there is no way in hell she's getting burned in caucuses like she did in 2008. In 2008, she didn't plan for states outside the first few because she thought she'd have it sewn up. She didn't have the ground game in place to turn out caucus goers. She learned her lesson the hard way. It's why she's running a game in Vermont, for example, when there's really no reason for her to do so. She's not going to allow Bernie to get 2/3 of the delegates out of Alaska, for example, that Obama did.
Plus, she won't have to deal with Texas being a total and complete rip off for her this time. (A primary AND a caucus, come on son....)
Manmademan
Member
DC
Georgia
Illinois
Louisiana
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Maryland
Are all going to be demographically problematic for Bernie. That's why I get frustrated when people act as though his only demographically challenging state is SC. Unless he can limit the margins in these states, he's completely screwed.
Missouri only went for Obama by like 1.5% points, so I would be apt to add that to the list. Michigan and Florida actually count this time which benefits Hillary
The most important thing is there is no way in hell she's getting burned in caucuses like she did in 2008. In 2008, she didn't plan for states outside the first few because she thought she'd have it sewn up. She didn't have the ground game in place to turn out caucus goers. She learned her lesson the hard way. It's why she's running a game in Vermont, for example, when there's really no reason for her to do so. She's not going to allow Bernie to get 2/3 of the delegates out of Alaska, for example, that Obama did.
Plus, she won't have to deal with Texas being a total and complete rip off for her this time. (A primary AND a caucus, come on son....)
Can't be stated enough. Obama won in 2008 by out strategizing clinton in the caucus states. Without that particular blunder, Hillary would have won. Re-run that race with the candidates knowing then what they knew now and Obama loses.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Trump has opened up a large lead in betting markets:
Trump: 38%
Rubio: 30%
Cruz: 19%
Jeb: 10%
Christie: 3%
http://predictwise.com/
Trump: 38%
Rubio: 30%
Cruz: 19%
Jeb: 10%
Christie: 3%
http://predictwise.com/
FloydtheFathead
Member
Trump has opened up a large lead in betting markets:
Trump: 38%
Rubio: 30%
Cruz: 19%
Jeb: 10%
Christie: 3%
http://predictwise.com/
I'm surprised Rubio is still so high..
Manmademan
Member
I'm surprised Rubio is still so high..
he's the default choice for anyone who thinks the establishment/party will win out, since no one else is viable.
Why are they discounting Christie so much? Jeb is done. Doesn't make sense to me that he's ahead of Fatty.
you said it yourself. Christie is fat, unlikeable, and not particularly telegenic. His only attribute as a politician was that he's an asshole who "Tells it like it is" but Trump has that crowd locked up.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I'm surprised Rubio is still so high..
It takes a while for dudes to fall. Even after everyone knew Jeb was finished (after the third debate) he still was around 40% IIRC and took weeks to fall down to 10%.
Trump will be the candidate. He'll smack Hillary so hard that only the dedicated will show up on both sides. Liberals tune out, independents tune out, young people tune out, poor people tune out when that happens.
Even if she squeaks by, the diminished turnout will crush Democrats downballot, meaning NOTHING will change except we aren't running backwards so much as being pushed backwards. Whoopity doo! We're still going backwards. Relentlessly backwards.
You could not be more wrong on this. Attacks on Hillary (or women, or Latinos, etc.) are the main thing that serve to energize people who are supportive but somewhat apathetic to her. Everyone else has made this point I see but I cannot refrain from reemphasizing it.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Hillary is a fucking political killer and Trump flew off the handle with sexist attacks when going against Carly Fiorina. Trump's GE strategy is going to be a bunch of sexist attacks that Hillary will use to knife him to death. This will be easy and large turnout.
User 463088
Banned
The thing people fail to realize is that Hillary has dealt with idiots like Trump her entire life. She will bitch slap him into oblivion. She knows how to handle someone like him. Take a look at what she did to the BENGHAZZI! idiots. People want their President to look Presidential. Trump ranting and raving while Hillary tells him he's a moron (but nicely) will only look good.
Imagine if Jeb! wasn't too weak to actually deliver attacks against Trump. Jeb!'s often right on his attacks, but he lacks the backbone to actually deliver them. Hillary won't have that problem.
Imagine if Jeb! wasn't too weak to actually deliver attacks against Trump. Jeb!'s often right on his attacks, but he lacks the backbone to actually deliver them. Hillary won't have that problem.
FloydtheFathead
Member
he's the default choice for anyone who thinks the establishment/party will win out, since no one else is viable.
Hasn't that ship sailed for most people yet?
It takes a while for dudes to fall. Even after everyone knew Jeb was finished (after the third debate) he still was around 40% IIRC and took weeks to fall down to 10%.
Ah.. I don't know anything about that. That's why I was wondering why Rubio is still so high.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
DC
Georgia
Illinois
Louisiana
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Maryland
Are all going to be demographically problematic for Bernie. That's why I get frustrated when people act as though his only demographically challenging state is SC. Unless he can limit the margins in these states, he's completely screwed.
Missouri only went for Obama by like 1.5% points, so I would be apt to add that to the list. Michigan and Florida actually count this time which benefits Hillary
The most important thing is there is no way in hell she's getting burned in caucuses like she did in 2008. In 2008, she didn't plan for states outside the first few because she thought she'd have it sewn up. She didn't have the ground game in place to turn out caucus goers. She learned her lesson the hard way. It's why she's running a game in Vermont, for example, when there's really no reason for her to do so. She's not going to allow Bernie to get 2/3 of the delegates out of Alaska, for example, that Obama did.
Plus, she won't have to deal with Texas being a total and complete rip off for her this time. (A primary AND a caucus, come on son....)
If Bernie wins Iowa and NH, everything is up in the air. That said, the new england states Hillary won in 08' are probably all Berniestan this year, while Hillary will likely win Georgia, Louisiana, Nebraska and Kansas this time around. Nonetheless, I'm surprised the race has become so tight.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Did anyone see Obama sort of fleshed out his wage insurance proposal? Just another proposal that's too good to pass the current Congress. Throw it in the pile with immigration reform, universal pre-K, free* two-year college, high speed railway, cap & trade and gun control.
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