User 463088
Banned
Look at it this way. It's like when Cleveland takes the field in the opener. We know we're gonna lose. Everyone else knows we're gonna lose...but we think we have hope for like 3 quarters.
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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops
- Thread starter Diablos
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Look at it this way. It's like when Cleveland takes the field in the opener. We know we're gonna lose. Everyone else knows we're gonna lose...but we think we have hope for like 3 quarters.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Carly Fiorina trying to argue that she isn't an "insider" while Trump, Carson, and Cruz are has to be one of the dumber attacks from an incompetent campaign:
https://twitter.com/foxandfriends/status/687997328024715264
https://twitter.com/foxandfriends/status/687997328024715264
This guy is so mean. :U
FloydtheFathead
Member
Not with Hue Adam.. He's our Hue Hope.
I live in NJ. I can say whatever I want about that miserable piece of crap.
New Jersey isn't that bad ?:^V
Upper New England is definitely Sanders'. Lower New England, who knows. The Massachusetts machine is working hard for her (even in New Hampshire) and it's much more African-American than other New England states. That one would probably be Clinton's best New England state, along with Rhode Island because it's a weird one.
One thing to also remember is Clinton already has about 50% of the superdelegates, and what's different this time than in 2008 is that her opponent isn't a Democrat. He made a big announcement when a former DNC leader endorsed him, and if Hillary's team did that, they'd be making countless big announcements. She'll secure most superdelegates, and that's a near 700 head start on the delegate count. Sanders can't just win. He needs to break it out of the park.
User 463088
Banned
It's really not up in the air. Bernie's 3 best states are Vermont, New Hampshire and Iowa. He is incredibly lucky in that sense. A win in NH and Iowa does not help him with his demographics problem. He will be destroyed in every southern state. That's why I brought up the states I did. I'm willing to bet he won't win a single southern state.
As far as New England states, that's also not accurate based on what we know right now. New York will go to Hillary. Polling is lacking, but what we do have shows Hillary winning in Mass, New York, New Jersey and Conneticut, although most of those aren't extremely recent.
The problem is let's say I concede Iowa and NH to Bernie. Nevada leans Hillary, demographically. He will not take South Carolina.
At that point we're at Super Tuesday (March 1)
Alabama
American Samoa
Arkansas
Colorado
Georgia
Mass
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
Vermont is a given for Bernie. There's not a single state here where I would call him a favorite. I'll give you he has a better than shit chance in Colorado and Minnesota, but that's it.
We follow that with Louisiana, Nebraska and Kansas on March 5. Maine on the 6th, which is a decent shot for him. This takes us to the 15th of March when it's Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio. None of which play to Bernie's strengths.
Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware aren't until April 26th. New Jersey isn't until June. Unless he can fix his southern problem, which is a moderate/conservative and AA problem, he can't hope to win by holding out long enough to hope NE can save him.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Honestly more republicans should. It's such a shamelessly hypocritical attack to be like "We need a uniter, not a divider, oh also New York lol am I right" Just writing off the third biggest state in the country because it doesn't vote for you assholes.
Same with Palin's real America schtick. Any politician spewing this crap needs to go fuck themselves.
it's always the most divisive people who tend to call Obama divisive.
disastermouse
Banned
Yeah probably. Except I don't think you can accidentally kill anyone.
disastermouse
Banned
Nope. Some video of her blaming homeowners for the financial crisis will spring up or some other purely calculated and center-right will keep them back.
Software bugs have certainly killed many people. Everything from pacemaker malfunctions to plane crashes.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Not Obama but I loved watching the gay marriage debate in the Minnesota legislature where the Republicans would sob that the DFL was dividing people by forcing them to take sides on the issue.
Keep in mind this was only months after the voters of MN voted on a constitutional amendment to ban it, an amendment put on the ballot by those SAME FUCKING ASSHOLES. It's like you forced the issue, not us. And you know what, we did vote and they fucking lost. Just like they did on the House and Senate floors in 2013.
I love seeing rats squirm.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
The crux of my point is that winning NH and Iowa (and yes, he's lucky those are the first two states) craft the narrative that Hillary isn't inevitable and Bernie isn't a lost cause. Whether that's enough to tip enough states in Sanders' favor is to be seen, but that's why I'm saying it's up in the air. As long as he can keep it competitive until April 26th, I think his odds look good. If he loses Iowa, things will probably be less rosy for the Sanders campaign.
User 463088
Banned
Fair point. If he could stay in it that long, then, ya, he'd have a good shot. I just don't think that's likely. I don't see an Iowa win as being strong enough to carry him through the southern states.
While we're concocting future surprises, imagine what will happen when the Republican oppo research on Bernie drops, not the kid glove stuff we're seeing in the primary. Even Obama, a relatively clean politician who led IMO a basically scandal-free presidency, had Rezko and Wright, both of which almost destroyed his chances.
disastermouse
Banned
disastermouse
Banned
Has it ever put you in court?
User 463088
Banned
I got another email from Carville asking for money. They've found me weak spot. Halp!
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Looked up my racist relatives on Facebook and they are a fan of "deport all American Muslims" so maybe that's Rubio's shot right there. Good call on that idea, poster that I forgot the name of. They're mad about the Iran prisoner release because that means more Muslims in the United States and I'm serious about this.
*Drinks antifreeze due to being from this family*
Anyway, Obama can't keep getting away with getting the things we want from Iran without murdering a massive amount of people.
*Drinks antifreeze due to being from this family*
Anyway, Obama can't keep getting away with getting the things we want from Iran without murdering a massive amount of people.
Believe me. I know the feel!
My dad has said a few questionable things about Islam (so insane that I'm too embarrassed to post them online anonymously even), but at least he's not a Trump supporter.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
My dad is a Trump supporter *drinks rubbing alcohol*
My mom, essentially a Dixiecrat despite being from Utah, hates how vulgar and disgusting Trump is and that experience makes me hopeful that Republican women will end up voting for Hillary even though they hate her.
Welp, looks like Hillary is finished. 
Democrats full Diablos mode activate:
- Unenthusiastic supporters
- Surprised by Sanders' strength
- Message too rational / pragmatic for current electorate
- Should have attacked earlier
- Biden getting in would have helped
- Should have had more debates
- Bad data modeling
- Likely 2008-like defeat
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/17/u...ng-bernie-sanders-earlier-her-allies-say.html
Guess all we can do now is just sit back and wait for the inevitable.
Democrats full Diablos mode activate:- Unenthusiastic supporters
- Surprised by Sanders' strength
- Message too rational / pragmatic for current electorate
- Should have attacked earlier
- Biden getting in would have helped
- Should have had more debates
- Bad data modeling
- Likely 2008-like defeat
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/17/u...ng-bernie-sanders-earlier-her-allies-say.html
Guess all we can do now is just sit back and wait for the inevitable.
At least they are lowering expectations ahead of time
Manmademan
Member
the nate silvers of the world are still desperately clinging to it.
Poodlestrike
Banned
I don't really talk to my dad these days, but back in the day some of the stuff he said about Islam was kinda sociopath-y. Wanted to turn Mecca into a volcano (drop enough hydrogen bombs on it that you punch a hole through the crust), deliberately spreading ebola...
Yeah.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
FloydtheFathead
Member
Didn't someone post an article of how even he has started to do a slight backpedal?
If I'm going to call out sexist attacks and comments on Hillary, then I'll do the same for ageist attacks or comments on Sanders.
Shame!
Welp, looks like Hillary is finished.
- Unenthusiastic supporters
- Surprised by Sanders' strength
- Message too rational / pragmatic for current electorate
- Should have attacked earlier
- Biden getting in would have helped
- Should have had more debates
- Bad data modeling
- Likely 2008-like defeat
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/17/u...ng-bernie-sanders-earlier-her-allies-say.html
Guess all we can do now is just sit back and wait for the inevitable.
At least they are lowering expectations ahead of time
Good thing Obama's not running.
Any candidate with Bill, Kennedy or Obama's skills would have beaten the "boring" Kerry, Gore, Dukakis etc
Retromelon
Member
Rand Paul's decision to skip the undercard debate turned out to be a brilliant move
http://www.businessinsider.com/rand-pauls-undercard-debate-2016-1
http://www.businessinsider.com/rand-pauls-undercard-debate-2016-1
Slayy
User 463088
Banned
I gave up on that thread....but, honestly, in what world has this person been living in? The GOP is never too busy to hate on Hillary freaking Clinton. Ugh.
Still not going to get him back on the main stage
The sad thing is if you go to the official thread of the German sexual assaults, many of the European posters agree with him. I was literally in there arguing with people why it was not okay to ban refugees from swimming pools after a facility did so. Check my post history if you don't believe me.
QuiteWhittle
Member
Funny you say that, Trump is consistently underperforming his fellow Republicans in Utah.
He's going to win it, of course, but since this was by far Romney's best state I wouldn't be surprised to see a YUGE swing to the left.
RustyNails
Member
I still don't buy the Iowa polls showing Bernie closing. I think Hillary's coalition will put her through the top. I think that's the key. She struggled in 2008 because Obama spent months, even maybe years building a network coalition infrastructure that propelled him through the stratosphere. Building infrastructure takes lot of time. It may be too late for Bernie. He might win IA and NH but SEC is death. You absolutely need the infrastructure in place. Sadly, Killer Mike would prove too little too late.
zero shift
Banned
He is gaining with minorities IIRC. But I doubt he will be able to close the gap with Hillary by the time primaries are over.
You can't argue with the arch Nate Silver defenders. They will keep claiming that people "didn't read what Silver actually said." Dude just didn't take into account how this elections media climate is completely different than other ones. You didn't have a populist running. You didn't have a voting populace as frustrated as this one. You didn't have a candidate riding on media hyper and controversy. Numbers can't predict everything.
It is likely that someone other democratic-socialist candidate will build on what Sanders built in future elections. Sanders is likely the beginning of something rather than the end. Sort of like neo-conservativism in the 1970s.
Bel Marduk
Banned
Looks like 13 Hours: Secret Soldiers of Benghazi is flopping like crazy
So that's good
So that's good
You don't buy him being able to significantly close the gap in SC and NV?
Eh, not really. He basically said he agreed with Cruz but Trump wound up winning the debate exchange so Cruz should have been better prepared.
I mean, this is Steve King we're talking about.
All the reviews I've read say it's not really a political thing anyway and that aspect of it releasing has been overblown. Everyone says it's just an action movie.
I wonder if either candidate is doing grass-roots campaigning in the black community like Obama did in 2008. I am pretty sure Sanders is not, but I haven't heard anything about Clinton either. This is the kind of stuff Obama was doing---not just "win a couple early states and pray" that people switch once he proved himself viable, but a months-long, organized, involved campaign for votes.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1576379/Barack-Obama-targets-southern-barbershops.html
To be fair, much of the media usually misses stuff like this, especially if it occurs in non-English language media.
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