• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

Status
Not open for further replies.

NeoXChaos

Member
I wonder if either candidate is doing grass-roots campaigning in the black community like Obama did in 2008. I am pretty sure Sanders is not, but I haven't heard anything about Clinton either. This is the kind of stuff Obama was doing---not just "win a couple early states and pray" that people switch once he proved himself viable, but a months-long, organized, involved campaign for votes.



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1576379/Barack-Obama-targets-southern-barbershops.html

To be fair, much of the media usually misses stuff like this, especially if it occurs in non-English language media.

If you believe Hillary's campaign bluffs about preparing for a long primary then its possible.
 
I wonder if either candidate is doing grass-roots campaigning in the black community like Obama did in 2008. I am pretty sure Sanders is not, but I haven't heard anything about Clinton either. This is the kind of stuff Obama was doing---not just "win a couple early states and pray" that people switch once he proved himself viable, but a months-long, organized, involved campaign for votes.
Her South Carolina campaign released this update back in November:
Hillary for SC has now hosted 1,200 grassroots campaign events and has 22 ongoing weekly phone bank locations. Our organization has made nearly a half a million voter contact attempts on the doors and on the phones, and thousands of South Carolinians are engaged in our campaign by making phone calls, knocking on doors, hosting house parties, having one-on-one meetings, and attending community events. We have a grassroots infrastructure prepared to turn out voters on February 27.
https://medium.com/@HillaryforSC/countdown-100-days-to-election-day-in-sc-a6ec9e9c050d#.yraoztv45

They're keeping a lot of cards close to their chest, but it does seem that they've been putting in the requisite organizing work there. Here are some pictures her field staff uploaded today:

No, this isn't a #fitn candidate event, these folks are canvassing for @HillaryforNH
CY22z85WUAAd1c2.png

These fabulous ladies are ready to #HRCanvass for @HillaryClinton! #HILLYES #WErewithHer #IACaucus
CY28c5cVAAAQ3HH.jpg


Why such little enthusiasm for Hilary Clinton?

I'm fascinated to see how effective her organization proves to be come the Iowa caucus (and NH primary). If it really does come close to Obama's as some early state insiders have been suggesting (at least in Politico...) I'll feel a lot more confident about her ability to win the general election.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
I think I posted this earlier, but (in order of likelihood):

No Matter Who Is The Nominee, These Will Probably Win:

(Maryland Winner)
(Harris)
Feingold
Duckworth

------

Even If Rubio Is The Nominee, These Will Be Nail Biters, But Also Blow Outs If Trump/Cruz Is The Nominee:

(Cortez-Masto)
Bennet
Hassan
Murphy
Strickland
McGinty

-----

A Real Shot At Going Blue If Trump/Cruz Is The Nominee:

Ross
Kirkpatrick
Hill
Kander

-----

Trump Calls Hillary A Cunt In A Debate And All Bets Are Off:

Landrieu
Eldridge
Whoever Runs Against Isakson
Whoever Runs Against Rand

Quoting me, since for whatever reason it now seems inevitable that Trump or Cruz could be the nominee, and if all of these races were won, it would give the Democrats 57 seats in the Senate. Aaron, the fanfiction is REAL.
 
Funny you say that, Trump is consistently underperforming his fellow Republicans in Utah.

He's going to win it, of course, but since this was by far Romney's best state I wouldn't be surprised to see a YUGE swing to the left.

Yeah, Utah I think is showing that respectability politics makes up a lot of their political philosophy. The people here will vote for people I don't like, but they won't vote for someone who is just fucking gross.

I've got some pride for my state being Trump's worst state tbh.
 
Let me have my fanfiction where Indiana and Missouri have two Democratic senators.

lol.

Missouri have two Democrats?

That would be the day.

I'm so glad we have Jefferson City, KC, and St. Louis to balance things out in the political spectrum.

Kansas is always fucked.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Let me have my fanfiction where Indiana and Missouri have two Democratic senators.

Vermont has never had 2 Democratic Senators serving together. Leahy is the only Democratic ever elected to the senate from VT.

Kansas will probably never have a Democratic Senator in our lifetime unless the kids growing up their presently become less secular.

As for Utah: same as Kansas.

ItWasMeantToBe19 when do you think your state will elect a Democratic Senator again?

Moss was last reelected in 1970( Class 1)
Thomas was last reelected in 1944( Class 3)
 

ivysaur12

Banned
lol.

Missouri have two Democrats?

That would be the day.

I'm so glad we have Jefferson City, KC, and St. Louis to balance things out in the political spectrum.

Kansas is always fucked.

Kander ties Blunt to Trump.

Blunt doesn't know how to respond, as most Republicans don't.

Suburban Missourians who normally vote R either sit out or begrudgingly vote for Hillary.

Kander squeaks by a win ala McCaskill 2006.

McCaskill does shots.
 
Quoting me, since for whatever reason it now seems inevitable that Trump or Cruz could be the nominee, and if all of these races were won, it would give the Democrats 57 seats in the Senate. Aaron, the fanfiction is REAL.

If Democrats can ride a wave to 57 seats, then surely the House should flip, with or without gerrymandering at hand. Imagine if Democrats were able to pull it off with just one seat.
 
I still don't buy the Iowa polls showing Bernie closing. I think Hillary's coalition will put her through the top. I think that's the key. She struggled in 2008 because Obama spent months, even maybe years building a network coalition infrastructure that propelled him through the stratosphere. Building infrastructure takes lot of time. It may be too late for Bernie. He might win IA and NH but SEC is death. You absolutely need the infrastructure in place. Sadly, Killer Mike would prove too little too late.

There was also those numbers from the DM Poll that showed Bernie's support is isolated. 27% of his vote comes from just 3 of Iowa's 99 counties. (Fun game: Do you know what all 3 have in common....) Those 3 counties only count for something like 21% of the Delegates. He can run up the margins among these counties all he wants. Obama lucked out in last time since the young vote was spread further out than it is this time. It helped him throw his net wider.
 
Jennifer Rubin decided to retweet a Breitbart reporter yesterday.


.... It did not go well for her:

After citing strength of diplomatic relations with Iran, Josh Earnest can’t say why Obama hasn't secured release of four Americans in Iran
 

Iolo

Member
Holy shit.

I mean..

I don't understand why many people, especially media commentators, praised Trump for having a "noble" moment about Cruz and 9/11. Invoking national pride against the "other" is exactly the M.O. of a nationalist and has the double effect of feeding the current fears about terrorism. It doesn't matter if his emotion was genuine; I'm sure Putin's tears are at times genuine too. This is what gives me pause about Trump in the general, he is a master of media manipulation and populism.
 

Makai

Member
I don't understand why many people, especially media commentators, praised Trump for having a "noble" moment about Cruz and 9/11. Invoking national pride against the "other" is exactly the M.O. of a nationalist and has the double effect of feeding the current fears about terrorism. It doesn't matter if his emotion was genuine; I'm sure Putin's tears are at times genuine too. This is what gives me pause about Trump in the general, he is a master of media manipulation and populism.
The media likes authoritarian presidents.
 
If Democrats can ride a wave to 57 seats, then surely the House should flip, with or without gerrymandering at hand. Imagine if Democrats were able to pull it off with just one seat.

What would Clinton even do with such a big majority in congress? How should Dems maximize their two years?
 
Jason Kander has been an extremely good fundraiser, so I actually think he has a shot.

Kirkpatrick is a solid candidate but she'll need McCain to either lose the primary or be so hobbled he wouldn't be good for the general election. Same with Baron Hill except his fundraising has been pretty anemic from what I can tell.

Btw ivy that would only get us to 56. Bennet is the incumbent.

I like to think if Democrats came within 1-3 seats of the House majority enough House Republicans would switch sides and give Democrats the majority for the lulz.

Edit: ooh Jeb beating Rubio and Carson? Wonder if he could finangle his way into second and become the establishment choice. But if anyone in the establishment were to take on Trump I think Bush would be the worst option... Well just one poll anyway.
 

Iolo

Member
Honestly these 38% polls for Trump are nothing compared to the 99.7% win margins he will routinely rack up in his first four second terms as president.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
I think this right here displays where a lot of the frustration from Bernie supporters comes from. It's not the 1980s anymore, stop acting like it is.

The DNC has been running scared of Reagan for decades now, and most of what they do or say is framed from a conservative perspective. Most democrats still run like the electorate hasn't changed at all since 1984 and liberals are pissed off at not having a voice in politics for the last 40 years. The electorate is significantly more liberal and less white, yet the DNC is still living in the 80s trying to fend off the ghost of Reagan.
.
 
You guys are way too optimistic, lol. Trump can win the general.
Of course he can, there's nothing wrong with assessing the high probability that he won't though.

For starters, even in a close race what does his map look like? Democrats essentially start out with 251 electoral votes, the Kerry states and New Mexico. And I don't think the large Hispanic populations in Colorado or Nevada are going to be very receptive to his immigration policies so you could expect those to stay blue. 266. Any one of the remaining swing states - Iowa, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, or North Carolina - would put it away for Hillary (sorry, the Democrat).

But yes if he's cruising to victory by like five points he would easily win. I just think it's far likelier the opposite would happen.

I think you're greatly underestimating how much of a disaster Trump would be in a general election. Up until now he's been playing exclusively to a base that's been begging for a candidate like him for years.
 
What would Clinton even do with such a big majority in congress? How should Dems maximize their two years?

Raising the minimum wage would be huge. This is something that will affect every low-income citizen in the country. A public option for Obamacare would also be major as well, but I can't see that passing without the Democrats having a sixty seat majority in the Senate.
 
Ted Lied About being Passed up for a Job with Dubya

Ted Cruz has said that after working on George W. Bush's 2000 campaign, being passed over for a senior position with the new administration was "a crushing blow." Turns out, it was his own fault.

Cruz was offered a job as White House associate counsel shortly after Al Gore conceded the race in December, but he rejected it, members of the Bush transition team told The Associated Press. Cruz thought he was in line for the more senior role of deputy White House counsel.

DIMWIT TED
DIMWITTED
Did I do it right?

God, the establishment really, really hates him, don't they?
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Jason Kander has been an extremely good fundraiser, so I actually think he has a shot.

Kirkpatrick is a solid candidate but she'll need McCain to either lose the primary or be so hobbled he wouldn't be good for the general election. Same with Baron Hill except his fundraising has been pretty anemic from what I can tell.

Btw ivy that would only get us to 56. Bennet is the incumbent.

I like to think if Democrats came within 1-3 seats of the House majority enough House Republicans would switch sides and give Democrats the majority for the lulz.

Edit: ooh Jeb beating Rubio and Carson? Wonder if he could finangle his way into second and become the establishment choice. But if anyone in the establishment were to take on Trump I think Bush would be the worst option... Well just one poll anyway.

Yes, 56. Whoops.

Kander's campaign has apparently pissed off the DSCC by over stating the star power of their candidate, but he's an impressive fundraiser. With the right elements, he could maybe squeak by.

The key with Kirkpatrick is having a Cruz/Trump primary bring out the crazies who can take out McCain. Even then, I think that Arizona has a shot at going blue with the right top of the ticket candidate, which would give Kirkpatrick a leg up.

Baron Hill is a wet fart but it's an open seat and the Republicans aren't really lining up behind anyone yet, which is key. Donnelly isnt impressive like a Hietkamp, but won under the right circumstances.

Raising the minimum wage would be huge. This is something that will affect every low-income citizen in the country. A public option for Obamacare would also be major as well, but I can't see that passing without the Democrats having a sixty seat majority in the Senate.

I don't think anyone is doing anything about Obamacare until a second term. They are spooked from 2010.
 
If Hillary had that majority, I think we would see passage of EDNA, movement on her college plan, definitely going to pick up gun violence if she can, and definitely work on passing paid leave, except not Gillibrand's bill.

I think she'd focus on some aspects of Obamacare. Not sure she would bring up the public option in a first term, but she's running on a platform to strengthen the ACA. I'm sure there are a few things she could get enough votes on to do.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom