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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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C

Cerium

Member
Trump has South Carolina on lock but I think he needs at least one of Iowa or New Hampshire to solidify his frontrunner status with actual wins.

2nd in Iowa, wins in NH and SC, and he's well positioned to lock it up by March.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
So what time is the DMR Iowa polling being released? Kind of excited, we've not had an Iowa poll from one of the more strongly-performing companies in a while.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Cerium said:
Trump has South Carolina on lock but I think he needs at least one of Iowa or New Hampshire to solidify his frontrunner status with actual wins.

2nd in Iowa, wins in NH and SC, and he's well positioned to lock it up by March.
Click to expand...
Cruz takes SC if he wins Iowa if Trump doesn't win NH
 
R

Retromelon

Member
In the trump pac man game I legitimately beat the second stage (on one life, ain't donating) and i guess they figured no one would play it to that point so there's nothing after and it redirects u to the main menu, not even a chance to enter your points.

i was so excited to put in something obnoxious like jindal2016 or italmostisntfair, fun ruined
 
I

Incognito

Troll
Crab said:
Selzer & Co. is the best in the business. What they say the numbers are, that's probably the numbers. Their 2012 record was impeccable. So, I'm inclined to trust DMR's numbers.
Click to expand...

yep. she's spot on nearly all the time, including with democratic caucuses which are tough as hell to pin down. regardless, pretty funny to see Trump setting expectations before the poll is even released.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Incognito said:
yep. she's spot on nearly all the time, including with democratic caucuses which are tough as hell to pin down. regardless, pretty funny to see Trump setting expectations before the poll is even released.
Click to expand...

Yeah, caucus states are almost never called right, which makes the performance even more impressive. When I was at YouGOV, Ann Selzer was basically just accepted as the doyenne of US polling. Trump can manage the expectations all he likes. :p
 
P

PBY

Banned
JEBE said:
CV-e-m-U8AAvZtG.jpg:large
Click to expand...

Jeb surge is coming
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
Retromelon said:
In the trump pac man game I legitimately beat the second stage (on one life, ain't donating) and i guess they figured no one would play it to that point so there's nothing after and it redirects u to the main menu, not even a chance to enter your points.

i was so excited to put in something obnoxious like jindal2016 or italmostisntfair, fun ruined
Click to expand...

I got you dawg. Jindal 2016 is sitting at #10.
 
M

Makai

Member
HanShotFirst said:
Sure, but Trump is polling to well for anyone to get to first anyway. Point is, are these "surges" basically just "anyone but Trump?" Of course Trump isnt backed by the establishment like Romney was.
Click to expand...
With the exeception of Carson, every surge has been like a candidate going from 8% in the polls to 15% in the polls. They're taking votes away from each other, not Trump. In 2012, the not-Romneys stole votes from Romney.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Why do pundits assign so much importance to iowa. Its ridiculous. They'll be left with eggs on their faces. No one cares about iowa other than jesus freaks. It's not indicative of the race.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
RustyNails said:
Why do pundits assign so much importance to iowa. Its ridiculous. They'll be left with eggs on their faces. No one cares about iowa other than jesus freaks. It's not indicative of the race.
Click to expand...

Self-fulfilling prophecy. Winning Iowa gets you a tonne of headlines because pundits assume it means something, as we've seen from Trump headlines do actually dictate momentum, so it ends up meaning something after all.
 
H

HanShotFirst

Member
Makai said:
With the exeception of Carson, every surge has been like a candidate going from 8% in the polls to 15% in the polls. They're taking votes away from each other, not Trump. In 2012, the not-Romneys stole votes from Romney.
Click to expand...

Ok, that makes sense. Its weird because Trump sort of seems like this cycle's Romney(in polls only). I know he isn't lol, and Bush lost his expected nomination when Trump announced his candidacy but it seems like the establishment and the far right have switched positions in a way where the outsider is now most likely going to win the nomination.
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Beck also said that Trump has a lot of liberals backing him and so-called indies are afraid of him. So we can move on with ignoring Beck again.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Like, for reals, i read about people going "fo4 is halfbaked errywhere" and thought it was hyperbole. Nope. nopenopenope. Gods.

PBY said:
Better question - why is Beck on FoxNews?

I assumed they phased out his brand of crazy, guess not.
Click to expand...

bcoz They despise The Don even more than they despise Beck.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
RustyNails said:
Why do pundits assign so much importance to iowa. Its ridiculous. They'll be left with eggs on their faces. No one cares about iowa other than jesus freaks. It's not indicative of the race.
Click to expand...

With Democrats, it seems pretty important. It's almost like Iowa is what informs democrats about whether they're allowed to fall in love or need to fall in line.

Republicans are new to the idea of not falling in line, so it's harder to tell. It didn't seem to matter a ton in 2008, but it did clearly inform who the anti-Romney was going to be for the actual voting in 2012.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Welp, guess I'll have to wake up for the DMR polling. Hope it's juicy.
 
B

Butts-a-plenty

Banned
Macho Madness said:
My health plan for next year is the best it's ever been. Marketplace plan. Fuck anyone who wants to take it away from me.
Click to expand...

What are the stats? I really liked the one I had before I went to grad school and then ended up on medicaid while job searching. It had a high deductible but really low copays for regular doctor and specialist visits.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
With the end of the year approaching how is everyone feeling about their choices?

You Trump people must be having a field day. I can't believe the guy has been in the lead for so long. Gotta give props where they are do. Trump has exceeded my expectations.
 
M

Makai

Member
NeoXChaos said:
With the end of the year approaching how is everyone feeling about their choices?

You Trump people must be having a field day. I can't believe the guy has been in the lead for so long. Gotta give props where they are do. Trump has exceeded my expectations.
Click to expand...
He had me at "you're having a hard time tonight."
 
J

Jack Remington

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
With the end of the year approaching how is everyone feeling about their choices?

You Trump people must be having a field day. I can't believe the guy has been in the lead for so long. Gotta give props where they are do. Trump has exceeded my expectations.
Click to expand...

I have like a thousand dollars riding on him succeeding at various electoral outcomes. Feeling great.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Inebriated said:
What are the stats? I really liked the one I had before I went to grad school and then ended up on medicaid while job searching. It had a high deductible but really low copays for regular doctor and specialist visits.
Click to expand...

$21/mo for $600 deductible, $900 max out of pocket. No co-pays for doctor visits.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
NeoXChaos said:
With the end of the year approaching how is everyone feeling about their choices?

You Trump people must be having a field day. I can't believe the guy has been in the lead for so long. Gotta give props where they are do. Trump has exceeded my expectations.
Click to expand...

no complaints here. I had Ted Cruz taking it, with Trump a close second.

even if I lose, I still win. There is no way Rubio or Carson are in any shape to take the nomination. this one is nearly over and we haven't even hit iowa.
 
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