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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops
- Thread starter Diablos
- Start date
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Coriolanus
Banned
One can only hope.
Hexa
Member
Veritigo_X
Member
This particular poll has Trump polling steady from October (actually gaining two points). The big difference now is Cruz on top instead of Carson. It seems like Trump has a solid base in Iowa, but that probably won't be enough to win him the state.
Washington Post also brought up the point that the outsider candidates now have 66% of the vote, compared to 59% in October and 54% in August.
Washington Post also brought up the point that the outsider candidates now have 66% of the vote, compared to 59% in October and 54% in August.
One of my big pet peeves when it comes to presidential primaries is this weird assumption that a candidate winning Iowa will help propel them in New Hampshire. It didn't happen in 2008 for Democrats and Republicans, and it didn't happen in 2012 for Republicans. It won't happen in 2016 if Cruz wins Iowa. He'll still get fourth or fifth in the state.
It's the same people who supported Carson who are now supporting Cruz now, though.
Yeah but Trump could use the momentum to solidify NH.
But Cruz will actually get them to the polls. He'll have an actual GOTY campaign.
Still has microtransactions. Infuriating.
Cruz is probably campaigning for Dead or Alive 5: Last Round.
RustyNails
Member
So I think this DMR poll with Cruz on top is an outlier. CNN poll is definitely in the realm of a general Trump lead just like countless other polls, which makes it more acceptable. This poll however has Cruz overpolling by 20 points from the trend. Something is definitely off. It could be the start of a Cruz flavor in Iowa. I'm not doubting Cruz' staying power but remember, Carson was leading Iowa for weeks. But we need more polling out of Iowa.
The Monmouth poll also has Cruz in the lead.
In an alternate universe where Trump wasn't running, Cruz would have IA on lockdown. I hear stories about how organized Trump is on the ground giving out instruction cards on how to caucus, but I haven't heard anything about Cruz's effort outside of the fact that he's the only other candidate taking things seriously there.
I would expect that the nature of caucuses complicates things more than a primary, I guess?
I would expect that the nature of caucuses complicates things more than a primary, I guess?
RustyNails
Member
It could mean that the Cruz flavor has started. But I really doubt that he doubled his lead over Trump in a week. Carson stayed on top for the entire month of October:
It will be interesting to see what Trump's strategy would be in taking down Cruz. I think we saw a first glimpse though: "There aren't a lot of evangelicals from Cuba"
Hexa
Member
I just noticed Trump Jr. is articulate as heck.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86zeY8VIatA&feature=youtu.be
Could this all just be a set up to get his kids into politics? lol
Trump Family Accomplishments
☑ Amazing scientist
☑ Successful businessman
☑ TV celebrity
☐ Renowned politician
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86zeY8VIatA&feature=youtu.be
Could this all just be a set up to get his kids into politics? lol
Trump Family Accomplishments
☑ Amazing scientist
☑ Successful businessman
☑ TV celebrity
☐ Renowned politician
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Does anyone by chance have a link to the all Trump debate gif from the CNN debate?
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I really wish some of these losers would quit already. What the fuck is Pataki still hoping to accomplish?
Sounds like Rand is dropping out if he doesn't make main debate
https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/po...nd-campaign/7x5NZkzHnmRfMxwNL0AVbL/story.html
https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/po...nd-campaign/7x5NZkzHnmRfMxwNL0AVbL/story.html
Cenk (from TYT), did get to interview Bernie, in 2011, when he was host on MSNBC, and they both were on quite good form (again, I've skipped ahead in the video, but, you may want to rewind to get the full context):
I'm still scratching my head as to why TYT's support for Bernie, since the first Democratic debate, back in October, has gone completely off the boil, and when a Trump supporter said (TYT video link):
Cenk's response was:
For the remaining two minutes of the video, I was waiting for Cenk to justly single out Bernie, as an exception, but my wait was in vain
; Bernie snubbed TYT for an interview, confirmed .
Despite the false impression given by that Polifact chart, that Hillary doesn't deserve to lumped in with all the other "politicians" (don't make me laugh; Hillary Clinton has more gates than a south Texas cattle ranch. (yes, I know that was LaPierre), e.g, Travelgate (rampant nepotism), Pardongate (freeing suspected FALN terrorists), etc, etc), I have seen absolutely nothing to suggest that Bernie is nothing but, an extremely dedicated, and truly honest politician, and, without doubt, "You are our only hope!".
I'm still scratching my head as to why TYT's support for Bernie, since the first Democratic debate, back in October, has gone completely off the boil, and when a Trump supporter said (TYT video link):
Cenk's response was:
For the remaining two minutes of the video, I was waiting for Cenk to justly single out Bernie, as an exception, but my wait was in vain
; Bernie snubbed TYT for an interview, confirmed .Despite the false impression given by that Polifact chart, that Hillary doesn't deserve to lumped in with all the other "politicians" (don't make me laugh; Hillary Clinton has more gates than a south Texas cattle ranch. (yes, I know that was LaPierre), e.g, Travelgate (rampant nepotism), Pardongate (freeing suspected FALN terrorists), etc, etc), I have seen absolutely nothing to suggest that Bernie is nothing but, an extremely dedicated, and truly honest politician, and, without doubt, "You are our only hope!".
Black Republican
Member
To me it seems like everybody on the undercard and down apart from Rand isn't actually running for the Presidency. Hanging in there at this stage has got to be about profile and future book/speaking/commentator deals.
However, while that may have been a thing in past cycles, it doesn't seem like that is really going to be the case this time around. The field has just been too crowded from the outset, and Trump has monopolized the media. Very few people have had their time in the sun like the merry-go-round we had last time. As you say, most of them just look like losers.
I'd say the only ones coming out of this primary actually better off than when they started, regardless of outcome are Trump, Cruz, and Carson. Carson by a long shot too, in terms of where he started from. He'll be selling more books and making more awkward mumbling speeches for years to come.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
I think Rand had high hopes for presidency because it has been pretty clear that the party is too old and will need new direction soon and he was setting himself to be that new direction whether that be 2016 or 2020 or 2024. Unfortunately for him, its seeming like the party is moving the exact opposite direction towards fascism instead of libertarianism, and it's honestly shocking he can't find even 5% of republicans to support his libertarian style.
I did once think that Rand's style was the future of the party, but when the realignment does happen, it'd probably look more like Bill Maher than the Pauls.
I did once think that Rand's style was the future of the party, but when the realignment does happen, it'd probably look more like Bill Maher than the Pauls.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Honestly, I'd just go with Selzer. At least with them, you know outliers are statistical noise rather than terrible sampling a la Monmouth.
Black Republican
Member
GOP NBC/WSJ - Dec 6-9
Yeah, I remember everyone thinking he would do well because he would get his dad's supporters plus establishment support. Nope, everybody abandoned him.
Manmademan
Member
I told y'all about Ted Cruz
Kinda silly because trumps been getting trashed by everyone pretty much since he announced..
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
That poll still shows Trump in an incredibly strong position.
Coriolanus
Banned
Cruz is just this cycle's santogrich. Chillax dudes.
Id guess that a large part of Rand's problem is simply that he's an asshole. RuPaul, dried prune that he was, had a whole lot of charisma. He was this nice, funny, approachable old man that went to leftie shows and managed to make people simply like him. Not so with the son.
Id guess that a large part of Rand's problem is simply that he's an asshole. RuPaul, dried prune that he was, had a whole lot of charisma. He was this nice, funny, approachable old man that went to leftie shows and managed to make people simply like him. Not so with the son.
Tarkus
Member
Not in a debate. Cruz is a master debater and would tear her apart. Master as in he was a national champion in undergrad. I think he's the last person you'd want against her on the national stage where voters can be swung based on performance.
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