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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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N

NeoXChaos

Member
tmarg said:
I don't understand why they don't increase the requirements to qualify for the main debate. It's obvious they need to narrow the field, and it's not like anyone is going to miraculously come back from <2% in the polls to win.
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At this point who cares. We only have 2 more debate of this before the inevitable dropouts.
 
D

Daniel B·

Banned
I've just seen a ton of new YT vids for Bernie's Iowa campaign, including this charming music vid (only four days now and my 3D ticket is berning ;) a hole in my wallet) :).



Also, a lifelong Republican for Bernie, giving a strong case for #FeelingTheBern:



P.S. How come its almost 2016 and we haven't solved the vertical video issue (regardless of orientation, phone should take videos in widescreen ratio and phone software should automatically adjust playback, based on orientation...)?
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Rubio has basically consolidated the establishment Republican support and he's still stuck in third. This primary, the RNC and the voters enabling the nutjobs, it's all a farce.
 
Z

zargle

Member
Black Republican said:
CWH62HgWcAAzq2Q.jpg


Randy made it!

Cruz next to Trump omg

Christie makes a comeback!

Bush is still there!
Click to expand...

It's like they tried to make a terrible menorah.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Rubio has basically consolidated the establishment Republican support and he's still stuck in third. This primary, the RNC and the voters enabling the nutjobs, it's all a farce.
Click to expand...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republican-brokered-convention-donald-trump/
harry: They could rake Trump down a peg or two and still have a contested convention. The way it doesn&#8217;t happen is if there&#8217;s an establishment candidate that consolidates support. To expand on that: Trump doesn&#8217;t need to &#8220;beat&#8221; the establishment for there to be a contested convention. There still might be one even if he tops out at 25 percent of the vote. The way you avoid one is if an establishment candidate can get 45-plus percent of the overall vote, which would probably lead to more than 50 percent of the delegates available.
Click to expand...
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Debates should be restricted to people at 10% in at least one poll either nationally, in Iowa, or in New Hampshire. Cutting down to Rubio, Trump, Cruz, Carson, Bush, Christie, Kasich is not exactly that much of a narrow field still, but the Republican establishment could probably do it without too much fuss and it increases the chance that at least someone might get into striking distance of Trump.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Macho Madness said:
Le Pen lost?
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Yup, all of Le Pens did. Was actually quite a good election for the Socialists, really, not what was expected, it's looking like they'll end up splitting the regions 6-6 between the leftist bloc and the rightist bloc.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Yeah, it's quite nice for the left to be on the right side of polls being inaccurate for once. I mean, they still lost to the rightist bloc 7.5mil votes to 5.8mil, but they retained control of more regions than expected and shut out the FN from eating more out of their base than it looked like.
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
Here we go.

On Sunday Trump ratcheted his attacks up further in interviews with CNN and Fox News. On with Chris Wallace, Trump compared his "phenomenal business" record and temperament to how Cruz handles himself in the Senate.

"You look at the way he's dealt in the senate, where he goes in there like — you know, frankly a little bit of a maniac," Trump said, adding, "you're never going to get things done that way."

Then he defined what he called "the problem with Ted": You can't go to the Senate "call people liars and not be able to cajole and get along with people."

In an interview that aired Sunday, Trump told CNN that the niceness "will come to an end pretty soon."
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http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-explains-problem-ted-n479296
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
NeoXChaos said:
Fox IA

Clinton 50
Sanders 36

Loras and DMR are out tomorrow morning.
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The IA Dem polls are all over the place. In the last 3 weeks, we've had everything between Clinton +6 to Clinton +22. Glad DMR are actually doing an Iowa after all.
 
S

SL128

Member
Ted Cruz Sees Boon to His Campaign in Donald Trump:
The New York Times said:
Speaking to donors in New York City on Wednesday, Mr. Cruz suggested a more strategic reason to be grateful: Mr. Trump is bending the race in Mr. Cruz’s direction.

“He has framed the central narrative of this primary as, ‘Who will stand up to Washington?’ ” Mr. Cruz, of Texas, said at the private fund-raiser, echoing remarks he has made publicly. “Now if that’s the central narrative, the natural next question is, ‘O.K., who has stood up to Washington?’ ”

Mr. Trump, in this view, has taken a machete through the brush for Mr. Cruz, allowing him to rise quietly despite his own reputation for bombast, while Mr. Trump absorbs the scrutiny a front-runner attracts and eventually peters out, as Mr. Cruz has wagered.

...

In the interview, Mr. Cruz indicated that he would be willing to contrast himself with Mr. Trump, if necessary, on policy grounds. He has done so gingerly at times, most notably after Mr. Trump’s call to ban Muslims from entering the United States.

Mr. Cruz underscored that his experience taking on the Washington establishment was “markedly different” from anyone else’s in the race. Asked if that included Mr. Trump, Mr. Cruz repeated himself.
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On a different note, I'm now convinced that Daniel B is a Reddit bot that's gone rogue.
 
V

vicissitudes

Banned
Carson was easy for Trump to attack. The tweets practically wrote themselves. There's no good angle to really attack Cruz. (at least, in a way that'll turn him off to the base)
 
D

dabig2

Member
vicissitudes said:
Carson was easy for Trump to attack. The tweets practically wrote themselves. There's no good angle to really attack Cruz. (at least, in a way that'll turn him off to the base)
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Yeah, going to be interesting. He can only hit Cruz from the left, so his supporters might resist that. Then again, he's been hitting from the left already in many areas so maybe not. I've given up on predicting the opinions of the insane.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Hexa said:
Cruz I'm actually worried might stump the Trump. God speed Donald.
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Trump is probably better positioned to hit Cruz than anyone else in the field. His whole thing has been about making deals and getting things done and Cruz is essentially the opposite, he's all about not making the deal and not getting things done. All he has to do is paint Cruz as no better than the establishment guys who haven't gotten anything done and it's over.

Part of the reason the outsiders are doing so well is that the GOP base feels the establishment hasn't been doing anything they've been elected to do, if Trump attacks Cruz along those lines--which he can do very easily considering Cruz's record in Congress--then that's it for Cruz. If anything this should be easier than hitting Carson as Cruz is a more traditional target, plus with Trump's willingness to lie Cruz won't be able to weasel his way out of the attacks with his complicated bullshit tactics.
 
T

Third Strike

Member
dabig2 said:
Yeah, going to be interesting. He can only hit Cruz from the left, so his supporters might resist that. Then again, he's been hitting from the left already in many areas so maybe not. I've given up on predicting the opinions of the insane.
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Cruz being the cause of a government shutdown is something that will follow him the rest of his political career. He is too toxic for even the GOP, and I think even Trump knows that. His connection to hate-inspired pastors is something else that could sink him in the general...
 
B

Basileus777

Member
B-Dubs said:
Trump is probably better positioned to hit Cruz than anyone else in the field. His whole thing has been about making deals and getting things done and Cruz is essentially the opposite, he's all about not making the deal and not getting things done. All he has to do is paint Cruz as no better than the establishment guys who haven't gotten anything done and it's over.

Part of the reason the outsiders are doing so well is that the GOP base feels the establishment hasn't been doing anything they've been elected to do, if Trump attacks Cruz along those lines--which he can do very easily considering Cruz's record in Congress--then that's it for Cruz. If anything this should be easier than hitting Carson as Cruz is a more traditional target, plus with Trump's willingness to lie Cruz won't be able to weasel his way out of the attacks with his complicated bullshit tactics.
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You're overestimating how easy it will be to make this case.
 
T

Teggy

Member
As we saw in Iowa, almost all of Carson's votes shifted to Cruz, so it's going to be interesting to see if a Cruz voter can be a Trump voter and vice versa.
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Basileus777 said:
You're overestimating how easy it will be to make this case.
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Maybe. But its also super easy for Trump to say "and what have you gotten done Ted? This guy, this guy here he's been in Washington for two years and he hasn't done anything about immigration, he hasn't done anything about Muslims, why do we think he's going to do anything now?"
 
R

RustyNails

Member
vicissitudes said:
Carson was easy for Trump to attack. The tweets practically wrote themselves. There's no good angle to really attack Cruz. (at least, in a way that'll turn him off to the base)
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Yea I'm not sure the line of attack by Trump will work. He needs to bring in the "he's part of the government failure" line of attack to push Ted back in the box.
 
Hexa

Hexa

Member
Third Strike said:
Cruz being the cause of a government shutdown is something that will follow him the rest of his political career. He is too toxic for even the GOP, and I think even Trump knows that. His connection to hate-inspired pastors is something else that could sink him in the general...
Click to expand...

I think he has to be very careful. He's been previously attacking politicians for giving in too easily, and Cruz is the one guy that hasn't no matter what. I think he could do it, but as Basileus said, I don't think it'll be a cake walk like it was with Carson. Rather, Cruz is probably going to be the most difficult to deal with so far.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Basileus777 said:
You're overestimating how easy it will be to make this case.
Click to expand...

It'll be easier than it was to nail Carson to the wall, Trump basically had to wait for him to implode since nothing he did stuck. I just don't Cruz is as slippery a target as people are making him out to be, literally everyone that knows him hates his guts. If it looks like he's going anywhere the establishment will probably start pounding on him as well, remember that they haven't gone all in on Trump attacks yet in part because they hate Cruz and don't want him lapping up that support.

The Technomancer said:
Maybe. But its also super easy for Trump to say "and what have you gotten done Ted? This guy, this guy here he's been in Washington for two years and he hasn't done anything about immigration, he hasn't done anything about Muslims, why do we think he's going to do anything now?"
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Pretty much. I expect him to just pound on that day in and day out. Any defense Cruz makes will either make him look like an asshole or will be too complicated and will get lost in the ether of the 24-hour news cycle.
 
D

danm999

Member
That's actually exactly how I expect Trump to move forward.

Ted Cruz is a tremendous guy with the right values but he can't make a deal to save his life. He's never worked in a business, just as a lawyer and politician. He shut down the government but got nothing to show for it. He had one job; repeal Obamacare and he couldn't do it. I can.
 
M

Mario

Sidhe / PikPok
Crab said:
Debates should be restricted to people at 10% in at least one poll either nationally, in Iowa, or in New Hampshire. Cutting down to Rubio, Trump, Cruz, Carson, Bush, Christie, Kasich is not exactly that much of a narrow field still, but the Republican establishment could probably do it without too much fuss and it increases the chance that at least someone might get into striking distance of Trump.
Click to expand...

It would be easier just to work backwards from the arbitrary number of candidates you want in the debate to say "Take the top X candidates based on metric Y" than all this percentages nonsense.

Letting so many people up on stage in the name of "fairness" or whatever the media is doing destroys all value outside of comedic potential IMO. They should have 5 or 6 people up there tops.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Mario said:
It would be easier just to work backwards from the arbitrary number of candidates you want in the debate to say "Take the top X candidates based on metric Y" than all this percentages nonsense.

Letting so many people up on stage in the name of "fairness" or whatever the media is doing destroys all value outside of comedic potential IMO. They should have 5 or 6 people up there tops.
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I think 10% is reasonable because under the rules the RNC set for open primaries, you need at least 10% of the vote to receive any delegates. If you don't have any prospect of receiving delegates, you shouldn't be in contention for the debate. In some years, this will be 2 or 3 candidates, in others 5 or 6; but the point is at the time of the debate they will all be legitimate contenders, unlike, say Fiorina, or Paul. This year is a particularly crazy one, 10% either nationally, in Iowa, or in NH would give 7 candidates, but for most primaries it would produce about 4 and at lowest would have produced 2, that seems a good spread to me.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
danm999 said:
Ted Cruz is a tremendous guy with the right values but he can't make a deal to save his life. He's never worked in a business, just as a lawyer and politician. He shut down the government but got nothing to show for it. He had one job; repeal Obamacare and he couldn't do it. I can.
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Yerp, if there's an angle, that'd be it. Forms a nice, polite narrative of incompetence.
 
Hexa

Hexa

Member
Third Strike said:
He might have been saving that as a trump card this entire time. Has Cruz ever gone birther on Obama? If he has, this places him in a really awkward situation.
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gerYNRk.jpg


Trump actually started out playing the birther card against Cruz, but backed down after they had a meeting.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
RastaMentality said:
I'm sorry. I laughed.
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So did I, also Trump isn't really wrong here. News stations only have so much air time, why would you spend it on a campaign with no chance of winning? If he were pulling even with Hillary then Bernie would have a right to complain, but if he wants the news to report on him then he needs to become a contender or do newsworthy things.
 
I

Iolo

Member
B-Dubs said:
So did I, also Trump isn't really wrong here. News stations only have so much air time, why would you spend it on a campaign with no chance of winning? If he were pulling even with Hillary then Bernie would have a right to complain, but if he wants the news to report on him then he needs to become a contender or do newsworthy things.
Click to expand...

They're not spending time on Hillary either. This is just a ratings / codependence on Trump type thing.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
watershed said:
Trump targeting Hillary is good for him and good for Hillary. It also narrows the election narrative.
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If I were the President, I would be calling Trump out by name daily to help reinforce the narrative that he is the inevitable nominee. Rally the right behind Trump.
 
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