Of course. I like Nate because I appreciate quantitative analysis. Has Nate done primary odds? I've only followed his general election and midterm analysis.I really hope when Nate Silver switches from punditry into his data analysis mode for the general people don't start questioning him and putting their head in the sands if someone like a Rubio (or god forbid Cruz) is shown in the lead. Nate Silver the numbers guy has a pretty damn near flawless track record. PoliGAF would be an unbearable mess if that level of denial happens.
Trust the numbers, whether they are good or bad. Falling into irrational denial....is never a good luck (see Sanders-stans). I am hopeful that won't happen...but you never know.
I took a look and found this gem:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-polling-based-forecast-of-the-republican-primary-field/
This is the finale of a four-part series (Part I, Part II, Part III) evaluating the utility of early presidential primary polls as forecasting instruments. My contention is that these polls have enough predictive power to be a worthwhile starting point for handicapping a field of candidates. In this article, we’ll see what they have to say about the Republican contenders for 2012.
He said this in the context of a primary that hasn't even begun, but it's still ironically funny.