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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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Makai

Member
I really hope when Nate Silver switches from punditry into his data analysis mode for the general people don't start questioning him and putting their head in the sands if someone like a Rubio (or god forbid Cruz) is shown in the lead. Nate Silver the numbers guy has a pretty damn near flawless track record. PoliGAF would be an unbearable mess if that level of denial happens.

Trust the numbers, whether they are good or bad. Falling into irrational denial....is never a good luck (see Sanders-stans). I am hopeful that won't happen...but you never know.
Of course. I like Nate because I appreciate quantitative analysis. Has Nate done primary odds? I've only followed his general election and midterm analysis.

I took a look and found this gem:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-polling-based-forecast-of-the-republican-primary-field/

This is the finale of a four-part series (Part I, Part II, Part III) evaluating the utility of early presidential primary polls as forecasting instruments. My contention is that these polls have enough predictive power to be a worthwhile starting point for handicapping a field of candidates. In this article, we’ll see what they have to say about the Republican contenders for 2012.

He said this in the context of a primary that hasn't even begun, but it's still ironically funny.
 
Trump's up to 27 cents on PredictIt.

He was down to like .20 earlier this week. Thought about buying more shares when he got that low.

I probably should drop about $10 or $20 on Rubio to lose.
 

Makai

Member
So, fellow Trump fans...

We all expect Rubio's tech startup strategy will go awry. But it looks like Trump's not taking New Hampshire much more seriously. And the guy who is setting himself up for a surprise victory - Jeb.
 

Cheebo

Banned
I wonder if Rubios lack of ground game and organization is due to the fact he never expected himself to be the establishment favorite candidate to win it. I think when he got in this thing it was angling for the VP spot initially and then Walker and Bush both completely imploded.


I always feel like checking Past Frontrunners twitter is a good reality check. As of today in the past cycles:
2004: Dean/Clark tied.
2008 (D): H. Clinton +18.2, (R): Giuliani +11.9
2012: Gingrich +6.2

We have yet to get to the point in the last 12 years where the actual winner of any of the nominations was in the lead nationally.
 
I wonder if Rubios lack of ground game and organization is due to the fact he never expected himself to be the establishment favorite candidate to win it. I think when he got in this thing it was angling for the VP spot initially and then Walker and Bush both completely imploded.

That's exactly what this is. Rubio doesn't even want to be senator anymore. you think he wants to be president?

Smart money was on Rubio angling for Governor in 2018, using this campaign to elevate his profile.
 

Diablos

Member
Rubio is the Romney of this cycle. He's the most sane and sensible of the bunch, just sitting back and waiting for everyone to cancel each other out. His only real competition will be Donald Trump and I think it will be a bitter political bloodbath. Trump already threw some heavy punches in some of his previous, dare I say anon-inspired tweets about Rubio.

He doesn't really need a ground game yet, Republicans fall in line quickly and they can hit the ground running with that once the time is right.
 
That thread really shows how overly-confident Democrats are with this election. Way too much qualitative thinking. Most people agree that the Democrats have a strong advantage, but claims that Republicans literally cannot win because of the electoral college are just wrong. Even Trump would have a double-digit percent chance of winning.

I don't see anyone claiming that Republicans can't win in 2016, just that no one in their current field looks that dangerous. Rubio looks like a very threatening candidate on paper, but his campaign has been weak to this point. Everyone else has serious issues that give HRC a strong edge right now.
 
He doesn't really need a ground game yet, Republicans fall in line quickly and they can hit the ground running with that once the time is right.

The problem with this argument is that the small early states are disproportionately influenced by a strong ground game. If Rubio doesn't win one of IA, NH, or SC I don't see how he gets the momentum to win the nomination.
 

Cheebo

Banned
That's exactly what this is. Rubio doesn't even want to be senator anymore. you think he wants to be president?

Smart money was on Rubio angling for Governor in 2018, using this campaign to elevate his profile.

He would have been clearly the #1 pick for VP for someone like Walker who was originally the main establishment dark horse behind Bush going into this thing initially.

The problem with this argument is that the small early states are disproportionately influenced by a strong ground game. If Rubio doesn't win one of IA, NH, or SC I don't see how he gets the momentum to win the nomination.

I have read that unlike just about every other early state he has crazy good ground game in Nevada more so than anyone else due to his ties with the Mormon community there who are all in for him.
 
Rubio is the Romney of this cycle. He's the most sane and sensible of the bunch, just sitting back and waiting for everyone to cancel each other out. His only real competition will be Donald Trump and I think it will be a bitter political bloodbath. Trump already threw some heavy punches in some of his previous, dare I say anon-inspired tweets about Rubio.

He doesn't really need a ground game yet, Republicans fall in line quickly and they can hit the ground running with that once the time is right.

Except that he doesn't have the money or the endorsements lined up.
 

benjipwns

Banned
A lot of money is holding back. The Kochs have pretty much decided to ignore the primary. I've heard something similar is going on with a number of big network donors. It's a bad investment in a massive field. And Trump's made things even more volatile.

Individual max donors are keeping their powder dry too.

Look at the campaign burn rates and their impact on the polls. These are bad investments until somebody like Rubio gets closer to 20% in the polls.

No need to antagonize other campaigns by throwing your lot in with someone polling at 4% and muddling things even more.

Jeb's SuperPAC scheme probably was years in the making and drained his network well dry from the start. I don't think he's gained much more SuperPAC money since the start.

Plus, let's be honest, these campaigns are being run like shit from what I can tell. They all seem to be trying to go the debate/free media path. They're barely making ads, even ones to put only on YouTube to get aired on 24/7 news. So the state polls are all looking like the national polls.

Scott Walker and Rick Perry bailed out of the race with $40 million in SuperPAC money still in their coffers. And Walker had $1 million left in his campaign fund.

As of the last reporting period, Gilmore, Pataki, Santorum, Graham, Huckabee, Fiorina, Kasich, Paul and Christie combined have $14.5 million in cash and $26 million in SuperPAC money.

Ted Cruz alone has $14 million and $38 million.
 
Education divide in CNN poll is stunning. Among college grads: Cruz 22%, Rubio/Carson 19%, Trump 18% Non-grads: Trump 46%, Cruz 12%

Basically, educated Republicans have just as much hate, but want that hate to look respectable and have a really nice degree and internship experience.
 

sangreal

Member
The only thing Rubio has done well in this entire primary race is debating. That's it.

He's absolutely miserable at everything else.

not to mention a large portion of the base hates him for voting for immigration reform. And if you think that's not a big daal consider that being pictured near Obama has sunk Chris Chrostie
 
They will flock to him if need be. Everyone is underestimating Rubio.

I'm getting tired of hearing this. He is running a terrible campaign, he struggles whenever he has to go off script, he just sounds angry and defensive all the time. I'm not sure what anyone thinks he has going for him other than being young and hispanic. Cruz is ten times the politician that Rubio is, as disgusting as he is.
 

Diablos

Member
I'm getting tired of hearing this. He is running a terrible campaign, he struggles whenever he has to go off script, he just sounds angry and defensive all the time. I'm not sure what anyone thinks he has going for him other than being young and hispanic. Cruz is ten times the politician that Rubio is, as disgusting as he is.
I understand but Rubio really doesn't have to try very hard right now. You grow tired of hearing what I am trying to say but really I'm just as tired of people writing him off so soon. Rubio has time. All he has to do right now is:

a. Continue to debate well, or well enough, to score enough points post-debate
b. Not make a huge mistake to keep the establishment happy
c. Keep his cool until some other candidates drop out and donors have no choice but to stop being so cautious

Eventually, donors who are holding out will back him, and that's when a lot of things will start to change. Trying to mount an assault on Trump today with what his (or anyone else's) polling numbers are at right now is futile.
 
I'm still trying to figure out why one would assume that people will coalesce around Rubio, a canditate that has solely establishment pull, when all we've seen from the electorate so far in this cycle indicates that the anti-establishment is far more prevalent.

I can see the argument for Cruz, since he kinda sorta can pull from both sides (maybe), but Rubs? Not only would Jeb do everything in his power to tank the kid, he's also drawing from the apparently smaller pool. Would be necessary for both Trumpo and Cruz to implode, and i'd say it's far more likely that, if one of those two drops, whoever is left will throw everything they can at Rub.
 

pigeon

Banned
Rubio is the Romney of this cycle. He's the most sane and sensible of the bunch, just sitting back and waiting for everyone to cancel each other out. His only real competition will be Donald Trump and I think it will be a bitter political bloodbath. Trump already threw some heavy punches in some of his previous, dare I say anon-inspired tweets about Rubio.

He doesn't really need a ground game yet, Republicans fall in line quickly and they can hit the ground running with that once the time is right.

Jeb is pretty clearly the Romney of this cycle. That's basically the problem. Romney was always the establishment/money favorite even though he slipped in the polls occasionally. That role is filled by Jeb now. It's just that it isn't working.
 

Tarkus

Member
The only thing Rubio has done well in this entire primary race is debating. That's it.

He's absolutely miserable at everything else.
What you say is true for the most part; however, he's pretty damn good in a town hall format with off-the-cuff responses to questions. Really good, actually.
 

Makai

Member
I'm reading Nate's 4-part defense of early primary polling's predictive power from 2011. Not finished, but it's really bizarre because it seems like a complete flip of current statements.
 
James Taranto has a theory that Democrats have a largely friendly media that they associate with which harms them by not challenging them on subjects they agree on like gun control. Which leads to the assumptions about how everything's just a messaging problem.

One of his concerns is that Fox, talk radio and stunts like the debate complaining is slowly creating the same bubble for Republicans to their detriment as they no longer have to defend their policies on hostile ground.

I think there's some merit to the argument, and definite merit to the consequences of the premises being true.

And I also think it contributes to the polarization narrative, where both parties believe Americans agree solidly with them. When in reality, Americans by and large agree with both parties but not necessarily on the issues the parties think they do or to the extent or specifics, especially the parts of the parties within the bubbles. Gun control and abortion are often good examples of this.

I think part of the Trump denial stems from this. The media and establishment in general among its many arms, the parties, think tanks, "political experts", etc. are struggling to understand his appeal, and his increasing appeal, including in the head-to-heads with the felon Hillary, where he's no longer getting totally vaporized.

And it's mostly because they immediately dismissed him as "not serious" and so-on. And so the assumption is that things will "return to normal" and Trump will disappear. It's also why they continue to treat Jeb??? as a serious candidate when the GOP base has despised him for a while and he's clearly all but dead campaign wise currently.

There were similar sentiments among the elites regarding Reagan until he nearly beat Ford and then trounced Carter four years later.

There's definitely a self righteous aspect of this for both sides, but with the left there is also a sense of intellectual superiority/arrogance mixed in which they seem to think is effective. Lecturing people on issues they either don't give a fuck about (climate change) or issues the public is heavily divided on (gun control) may fire up your base, but it doesn't reach the actual important people in the middle or sidelines. I think this is partially why Obama has been so ineffective at selling his agenda for 8 years. Wheres Bill Clinton had a more appealing approach that had the right tone more often than not (but it humor or seriousness or whatever).
 
I'm reading Nate's 4-part defense of early primary polling's predictive power from 2011. Not finished, but it's really bizarre because it seems like a complete flip of current statements.

Is there a part 4? I can't find it anywhere (even though it's mentioned in part 3) and the charts are all broken in part 3.

He ends with arguing kinda the same thing he's arguing now, that name recognition has a large influence on early polls. The article was writing in May 2011 so he wrote this analysis in that context, talking about really early polls (January - June). We're already past that point.

I thought this was interesting though:

A highly recognized candidate who finds himself in an inferior position in the polls is in a great deal of trouble. Of the 67 high-recognition candidates who were polling in the single digits, none won their nomination. In fact, only three of them won so much as a single state, and they averaged just 0.9 percent of the popular vote.
 

Makai

Member
Is there a part 4? I can't find it anywhere (even though it's mentioned in part 3) and the charts are all broken in part 3.

He ends with arguing kinda the same thing he's arguing now, that name recognition has a large influence on early polls. The article was writing in May 2011 so he wrote this analysis in that context, talking about really early polls (January - June). We're already past that point.

I thought this was interesting though:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-polling-based-forecast-of-the-republican-primary-field/
 
That thread really shows how overly-confident Democrats are with this election.
THAT thread?
0yCmtKQ.jpg

It almost isn't fair!!
btw guys. My paper on socialism was complete shit :(
I half assed mine. I expect a c. Mediocrity buddies 4 lyfe
 

benjipwns

Banned
wtf did they do to break all the images in those articles

oh wait, they're on ESPN now aren't they, this is common across the website so maybe it's company policy
 

Makai

Member
"But who is it?"
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"But who is it?"
 

Makai

Member
He snorted during one of his punchlines. Did they throw that in the B roll to make him seem more human or something?
 

benjipwns

Banned
Code:
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton	CNN/ORC	Clinton 49, Trump 46	Clinton +3
General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton	CNN/ORC	Clinton 50, Cruz 47	Clinton +3
General Election: Rubio vs. Clinton	CNN/ORC	Rubio 49, Clinton 48	Rubio +1
General Election: Carson vs. Clinton	CNN/ORC	Carson 50, Clinton 47	Carson +3
General Election: Bush vs. Clinton	CNN/ORC	Clinton 49, Bush 47	Clinton +2
lol carson
 

Makai

Member
Only YouTube comment:

Finally, some media for Jeb with emotional appeal and that honestly reflects his natural persona. Right to Rise "gets it". Hopefully, the campaign will listen.

Jeb's PAC is doing a better job of showcasing his personality than his own campaign. Zing.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Aww yeah. Not fair!
tumblr_n9zxmoOgL61s7ifuuo1_500.gif

(Less than 1 month until the Twilight Zone marathon! Woo - the best material on TV all year!)

...

Robert Reich posted something interesting on Facebook this morning:
7BCBA14C-4B25-4BB0-8BD3-321D05F1DE7D.png.jpeg


I'd love to know whom he spoke with. Even more, I'd love to be a fly on the wall at the GOP's national HQ. Time's growing short for them to stop this. The Christmas break is going to put everything on ice.
 

Makai

Member
Aww yeah. Not fair!
tumblr_n9zxmoOgL61s7ifuuo1_500.gif

(Less than 1 month until the Twilight Zone marathon! Woo - the best material on TV all year!)

...

Robert Reich posted something interesting on Facebook this morning:
7BCBA14C-4B25-4BB0-8BD3-321D05F1DE7D.png.jpeg


I'd love to know whom he spoke with. Even more, I'd love to be a fly on the wall at the GOP's national HQ.
Probably Kasich. :U
 
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