The problem is Trump has basically been DOMINATING ever since he announced his candidacy. It would be unprecedented for him not to be favored for the nomination at this point, even if it's only December, I think.
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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops
- Thread starter Diablos
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Butts-a-plenty
Banned
I wish the first primaries were still right after New Years.
To be fair this is all pretty normal. It's exactly the sort of footage candidates would produce but not release when making ads in-house. Any political ad with a candidate's family is going to be the result of multiple takes and attempts to direct child non-actors.
They are to be commended for their bravery. And Trump is so weak, going by his standards. Good.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...roblem-with-the-donald-trump-pink-rug-theory/
I think Cillizza is close but misses the mark. Trump isn't the Porsche you buy because your minivan is broken. Trump is Republicans' mid-life crisis mobile.
Cillizza said:
I think Cillizza is close but misses the mark. Trump isn't the Porsche you buy because your minivan is broken. Trump is Republicans' mid-life crisis mobile.
benjipwns
Banned
Fort Marcy Park is going to get awfully crowded soon...
Retromelon
Member
^^^Vince Foster joke yo. *andrew dice clay voice* "It's topical!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZSRMpf0GFs for the one person that will enjoy it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1h-yn-T-gU8 2:51 loooooool what a godlike troll
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZSRMpf0GFs for the one person that will enjoy it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1h-yn-T-gU8 2:51 loooooool what a godlike troll
Manmademan
Member
Cillizza also misses that the tea party faction was more than happy to nominate complete lunatics to congressional seats in 2010, upsetting establishment candidates regardless of how "electable" they actually were.
Remember Christine O'Donnell in Delaware?
Manmademan
Member
I'm thinking this strategy isn't as dumb as it sounds. Bush is done and knows he's done. 2016 is off the table, but 2020 isn't.
If you want to be able to make a run at 2020, you make sure trump wins in 2016. Damage everyone else irreparably BUT him. Watch him get destroyed in the general by epic margins by hillary clinton, so you have the argument that an establishment candidate in 2020 is what the republican party REALLY needed all along.
It does to an extent on the Democratic side. Republican side not so much.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I love how conservative academics and journalists think a dude supporting the gold standard, massive tax increases on the poor, a guy who with less, outward, understanding of climate change than a four year old, anti-LGBT hatred in Ted Cruz is somehow the practical choice compared to Trump.
And Cruz is entirely unelectable as well! It's so transparent that conservative academics care more about the visuals of Trump winning than his policies or his hatred considering Cruz is harnessing that same hatred and intolerance.
And Cruz is entirely unelectable as well! It's so transparent that conservative academics care more about the visuals of Trump winning than his policies or his hatred considering Cruz is harnessing that same hatred and intolerance.
But he eats nails BEFORE he has breakfast, he can't be done!
Roland_Gunner
Member
That's what happened to Giuliani. Led through all of 2007 and then just imploded in January. So there is definitely precedent.
he ate nails and then, as one does after eating nails, died.
NobleXenon
Member
I'm curious, what did happen to Giuliani? I remember the whole Obama Girl video and Giuliani being like the forerunner.
RustyNails
Member
benjipwns
Banned
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._republican_presidential_nomination-2741.html
December was a long slow decline for Rudy against a rising Huckabee and McCain. McCain rocketed up in the first two weeks of January to unstoppable.
He went all in on Florida...which then got punished for moving its primary up.
December was a long slow decline for Rudy against a rising Huckabee and McCain. McCain rocketed up in the first two weeks of January to unstoppable.
He went all in on Florida...which then got punished for moving its primary up.
theprodigy
Member
wasn't Giuliani down in the early states though?
benjipwns
Banned
Polling averages back to early 2007:
IA 2008: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html
NH 2008: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_primary-193.html
SC 2008: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_primary-233.html
FL 2008: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_republican_primary-260.html
Rudy had collapsed in NH well before Iowa's results.
IA 2008: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html
NH 2008: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_primary-193.html
SC 2008: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_primary-233.html
FL 2008: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_republican_primary-260.html
Rudy had collapsed in NH well before Iowa's results.
Huffington Post is a fun place. With all these shootings lately and Clinton subtly attacking Sanders on guns, HuffPo decides to put a "Hey, Sanders is all about gun control!" article on top of their politics section. And then people in the comments get angry because they believe that Clinton is copying Sanders' position on guns, like every other of her positions.
That was just the dagger, Rudy was already on lifr support due to his dumbass plan of going for the old NYC Jews in Florida and assuming they would win the state for him.
Oh goddamn it...
Coriolanus
Banned
PhoenixDark
Banned
Man liberals are delusional on guns. Every time they try to win this fight they lose hard in the midterm. Yea Hillary has a tough gun agenda and will run with it in the general but I doubt she'll focus on the issue as the nominee.
Liberals tend to create a moralizing bubble in which they repeat the same emotional arguments to each other without realizing the public has other concerns. Republicans vote on gun control, independents vote on economic or foreign policy issues. You're not going to win this argument with the public.
Banning assault weapons wouldn't stop the majority of mass shootings. Background checks don't stop criminals from getting guns. Comparing the US to other countries where gun control works doesn't make sense given there are more guns than people in the US. 350 million or more.
Liberals tend to create a moralizing bubble in which they repeat the same emotional arguments to each other without realizing the public has other concerns. Republicans vote on gun control, independents vote on economic or foreign policy issues. You're not going to win this argument with the public.
Banning assault weapons wouldn't stop the majority of mass shootings. Background checks don't stop criminals from getting guns. Comparing the US to other countries where gun control works doesn't make sense given there are more guns than people in the US. 350 million or more.
benjipwns
Banned
James Taranto has a theory that Democrats have a largely friendly media that they associate with which harms them by not challenging them on subjects they agree on like gun control. Which leads to the assumptions about how everything's just a messaging problem.
One of his concerns is that Fox, talk radio and stunts like the debate complaining is slowly creating the same bubble for Republicans to their detriment as they no longer have to defend their policies on hostile ground.
I think there's some merit to the argument, and definite merit to the consequences of the premises being true.
And I also think it contributes to the polarization narrative, where both parties believe Americans agree solidly with them. When in reality, Americans by and large agree with both parties but not necessarily on the issues the parties think they do or to the extent or specifics, especially the parts of the parties within the bubbles. Gun control and abortion are often good examples of this.
I think part of the Trump denial stems from this. The media and establishment in general among its many arms, the parties, think tanks, "political experts", etc. are struggling to understand his appeal, and his increasing appeal, including in the head-to-heads with the felon Hillary, where he's no longer getting totally vaporized.
And it's mostly because they immediately dismissed him as "not serious" and so-on. And so the assumption is that things will "return to normal" and Trump will disappear. It's also why they continue to treat Jeb??? as a serious candidate when the GOP base has despised him for a while and he's clearly all but dead campaign wise currently.
There were similar sentiments among the elites regarding Reagan until he nearly beat Ford and then trounced Carter four years later.
Retromelon
Member
think u mean detriment bruv
it's mad late. I've been bullshitting this fdr paper all night, writing things I know my aged hippie professor wants to read. he's not gonna go through it with any sort of rigor as long as I make reagan look like satan through comparison in the end
"All that lost money over the years, instead of circulating throughout the entire economy being the equalizing force we need it to be, has been hoovered up all these years by the fellas at the top, and that ain't bullshit jack."
u guys think i should take that out, is that pandering too much
benjipwns
Banned
Retromelon
Member
you're not him are you.
you should give me an a+ for that hoover shit without even looking at my paper
dawg i am in as much mortal terror of these nerds finding out what a worthless nobody I really am as you.
That thread really shows how overly-confident Democrats are with this election. Way too much qualitative thinking. Most people agree that the Democrats have a strong advantage, but claims that Republicans literally cannot win because of the electoral college are just wrong. Even Trump would have a double-digit percent chance of winning.
Manmademan
Member
if by "double digit" you mean something like a 20% to Hillary's 80%, sure, I'm on board with that.
Yes, I remember. I also remember his morning press conference in FL where it looked like he had ten pounds of makeup on, surrounded by smiling faces.
Rudy did not generate nearly as much excitement and headlines as Trump. Nor do I remember his rallies being as consistently big.
BertramCooper
Banned
What frustrates me is when certain Democrats think that Dems can nominate virtually anyone (cough, cough, Bernie Sanders, cough) and expect to win the presidency with ease.
Nope. No, no, no, no, no.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/po...ts-presence/Bhy95IbTb6yfztwnrXcvwM/story.html
Jeb still in it.
Jeb still in it.
Eighth place
2008 and 2012 spoiled us, to be honest. We were, for the most part, really confident about the outcome. Watching the media try various ways to drum-up tension about the election's outcome was quite amusing.
BertramCooper
Banned
Rubio's campaign is such a fucking joke. I don't know how anyone can expect him to pull this off when he has virtually none of the infrastructure in place to do it.
Really regret putting my GAF vote on him. At least my actual money is on Trump.
Really regret putting my GAF vote on him. At least my actual money is on Trump.
I really hope when Nate Silver switches from punditry into his data analysis mode for the general people don't start questioning him and putting their head in the sands if someone like a Rubio (or god forbid Cruz) is shown in the lead. Nate Silver the numbers guy has a pretty damn near flawless track record. PoliGAF would be an unbearable mess if that level of denial happens.
Trust the numbers, whether they are good or bad. Falling into irrational denial....is never a good look (see Sanders-stans). I am hopeful that won't happen in the general election numbers in 2016...but you never know.
I am honestly starting to lean towards Cruz winning the nomination as each day passes now over Rubio. But I made my bet and I'll stick with it.
Trust the numbers, whether they are good or bad. Falling into irrational denial....is never a good look (see Sanders-stans). I am hopeful that won't happen in the general election numbers in 2016...but you never know.
I am honestly starting to lean towards Cruz winning the nomination as each day passes now over Rubio. But I made my bet and I'll stick with it.
Coriolanus
Banned
btw guys. My paper on socialism was complete shit
I am coming to terms with the realization that i`ll straight lift a paper
(again)
And that's ok.
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