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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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Daniel B how much money have you put on Bernie on Predictit again?

Man, if the billionaire Sheldon Adelson hadn't made online gambling illegal (campaign contributions...), I would so be putting a small bet on Bernie, as Bet365 currently has him a 26.0, for the GE (Hillary's at 1.66). In the primary, they are offering 9 vs 1.05 (odds are in decimal, the easiest for calculating winning amount (just multiply wager) - from my sports arbitrage days).
 

Cerium

Member
Daniel B·;190500467 said:
Man, if the billionaire Sheldon Adelson hadn't made online gambling illegal (campaign contributions...), I would so be putting a small bet on Bernie, as Bet365 currently has him a 26.0, for the GE (Hillary's at 1.66). In the primary, they are offering 9 vs 1.05 (odds are in decimal, the easiest for calculating winning amount (just multiply wager) - from my sports arbitrage days).

Predictit is 100% legal. It uses some loophole for research or whatever, but it's legal.
 
some good content™ by donald tonight

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/440331541580099584

@realDonaldTrump:
"@johnnyhabit: @realDonaldTrump why the fuck do I even follow you? Because you're addicted to genius, asshole!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/152056935712169984

@realDonaldTrump:
What a convenient mistake: @BarackObama issued a statement for Kwanza but failed to issue one for Christmas. http://bit.ly/vUmvpM

President Obama was addressing the troops on Christmas. Checkmate, Trump.
 

User 406

Banned
President Obama was addressing the troops on Christmas. Checkmate, Trump.

This guy isn't even, he isn't even American! And if these people, if he's forcing these people to listen to him, he captured them, he captured these people. I like people who weren't captured.
 
I've been feeling lately like if it's trump vs hillary, trump will win, but if its cruz v hillary hillary will win. trump has the type of authenticity about him that speaks to voters and has been able to surmount incumbency in years past. teds an empty suit
 

watershed

Banned
It's hilarious and depressing that there are always people saying Obama doesn't put out Christmas messages or is trying to kill Christmas or whatever when every year Obama lights a big ass Christmas tree outside the White House and always records a video wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and happy holidays.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I've been feeling lately like if it's trump vs hillary, trump will win, but if its cruz v hillary hillary will win. trump has the type of authenticity about him that speaks to voters and has been able to surmount incumbency in years past. teds an empty suit

You do remember that Trump is hilariously racist, right?
 

NeoXChaos

Member
PoliGAF 2016 Republican Nomination State Winner Prediction Game

Team A
NeoXChaos
Cerium
HylianTom
Roland_Gunner
Third Strike
SourShoes
Adam387
Plinko
kingkitty

Team B
Makai
Holmes
JesseEwiak
RustyNails
B-dubs
Aaron Strife
Ivysaur12
Retromelon
Cheebo

Total Score
Team A
Team B

February Bonanza

Tuesday, February 1, 2016
Iowa - caucuses - closed

Team A
Team B

Tuesday, February 9, 2016
New Hampshire - primary - mixed

Team A
Team B

Saturday, February 20, 2016
South Carolina - primary - open

Team A
Team B

Tuesday, Februaru 23, 2016
Nevada - caucuses - closed

Team A
Team B

*Coming Soon

March Madness


"Super Tuesday," March 1, 2016
Alabama - primary - open
Alaska - caucuses - closed
Arkansas - primary - open
Colorado - caucuses - closed
Georgia - primary - open
Massachusetts - primary - mixed
Minnesota - caucuses - open
North Dakota - caucuses - closed
Oklahoma - primary - closed
Tennessee - primary - open
Texas - primary - open
Vermont - primary - open
Virginia - primary - open
Wyoming - caucuses - closed

Saturday, March 5, 2016
Kansas - caucuses - closed
Kentucky - caucuses - closed
Louisiana - primary - closed
Maine - caucuses - closed

Sunday, March 6, 2016
Puerto Rico - primary - open

Tuesday, March 8, 2016
Hawaii - caucuses - closed
Idaho - primary - closed
Michigan - primary - open
Mississippi - primary - open

Saturday, March 12, 2016
Guam - convention - closed
D.C. - convention - closed

Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Florida - primary - closed
Illinois - primary - open
Missouri - primary - open
North Carolina - primary - mixed system
Northern Mariana Islands - caucuses - closed
Ohio - primary - mixed

Saturday, March 19, 2016
Virgin Islands - caucuses - open

Tuesday, March 22, 2016
American Samoa - convention - open
Arizona - primary - open
Utah - caucuses - closed
[/QUOTE]

*Individuals scores are combined for an overall team score.
*Correctly guessing the 1st 2nd or 3rd place finisher in each state will reward points to each team. 1st place will reward 3 pts, 2nd is 2 pts and 3rd is 1 pt.
*Bonus pts are awarded for the team who is closest to the actual percentage each candidate will receive.
*Deadline for Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada is January 25th
*Deadline for Super Tuesday is TBD
 

Makai

Member
IOWA
Trump
Cruz
Carson

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Trump
Christie
Rubio

SOUTH CAROLINA
Trump
Cruz
Carson

NEVADA
Trump
Cruz
Carson
 
From first to third:
Iowa - Rand paul, Trump, ted cruz
New Hampshire - Rand paul, trump, Christopher Christie
South Carolina - Rand paul, Trump, Cruz
Nevada - Rand Paul, Trump, Carson
 

params7

Banned
I've been feeling lately like if it's trump vs hillary, trump will win, but if its cruz v hillary hillary will win. trump has the type of authenticity about him that speaks to voters and has been able to surmount incumbency in years past. teds an empty suit

I think there's a chance of Trump getting the Reagan effect vs Clinton. A small chance but a chance nonetheless but no way it will happen with Cruz. I also don't see that happening if Trump squares of against Bernie who is another populist but then Bernie has the socialist/communist scare that will turn off the older generations.
 
I think there's a chance of Trump getting the Reagan effect vs Clinton. A small chance but a chance nonetheless but no way it will happen with Cruz. I also don't see that happening if Trump squares of against Bernie who is another populist but then Bernie has the socialist/communist scare that will turn off the older generations.

Hillary would win the female vote 65:35 or 70:30. There is zero chance Trump can beat her in the general.
 
Hillary would win the female vote 65:35 or 70:30. There is zero chance Trump can beat her in the general.
Terrorist attacks and major scandals are the only way he'd win, so yes I do think he has a chance. Just not under normal circumstances. I read an article where a GOP operative lamented that Hillary could slip on a banana peel and we'd get President Trump, to the GOP's terror.
 

HylianTom

Banned
IOWA (Monday, February 1st)
Cruz
Trump
Carson

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Tuesday, February 9th)
Trump
Cruz
Christie

SOUTH CAROLINA (Saturday, February 20th)
Trump
Cruz
Rubio

NEVADA (Tuesday, February 23rd)
Trump
Cruz
Rubio
 
IOWA
Cruz - 34%
Trump - 31%
Carson - 9%

NH
Trump - 31%
Cruz - 27%
Jeb - 10%

South Carolina
Cruz - 37%
Trump - 33%
Rubio - 16%

Nevada
Trump - 35%
Cruz - 30%
Rubio - 18%

Most of the total losers (Rand, Huckabee, Santorum, etc.) all drop out after Iowa. Carson drops out shortly before New Hampshire when it's obvious he has not traction. All of the Establishment types outside of Jeb and Rubio drop out after NH.

Jeb drops out after Nevada.
 

Maledict

Member
Politico continues to just be truly awful. 29 craziest things said by candidates article - of course the first is Donald Trump banning all Muslims, but the next three are all from Clinton.

Because cracking a joke about snapchat is apparently one of the craziest things said this year.

Their need to pander to 'both sides' has really ruined that site. They've very rapidly become the CNN of politics.
 

benjipwns

Banned
https://www.yahoo.com/politics/the-...h-200738611.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw
On Dec. 17, news of the incident broke and the Sanders campaign announced it had fired its national data director, Josh Uretsky, for taking advantage of the breach to access data belonging to Clinton. The top Sanders adviser told Yahoo News one of the remaining concerns is that Uretsky was recommended to the campaign by people with ties to the DNC and NGP VAN.

“It’s not as if we conjured this guy Josh from thin air. This is an individual … who was recommended to us by the DNC and NGP VAN,” the adviser said.

According to the adviser, one of the references that Uretsky gave when he applied to work with the campaign was the DNC’s National Data Director Andrew Brown, who works closely with the shared voter file program.

“Andrew Brown spoke to us and gave him a positive review, as did this guy Bryan Whitaker,” the adviser said.

...

“I just think it’s utter hypocrisy on their part,” said the adviser. “I mean here we are being attacked for the behavior of an individual, which we ultimately fired. We agree he acted improperly, but it’s just amazing to me that this … individual that actually caused this trouble in our campaign was recommended by these guys.”
DNC BUSTED, HE WAS A PLANT
 

BSsBrolly

Banned
Holy shit, my Dad (a life long democrat) is a Trump supporter.. What the actual fuck. I've been so amused by Trump this whole time. I'm now terrified of the things he's saying. It also makes me wonder if my dad is a closet racist..
 

benjipwns

Banned
I have a tag again? And it's a Locke quote? And it's a seemingly positive shorthand of my views, not mocking? Is this real life?
 

benjipwns

Banned
Holy shit, my Dad (a life long democrat) is a Trump supporter.. What the actual fuck. I've been so amused by Trump this whole time. I'm now terrified of the things he's saying. It also makes me wonder if my dad is a closet racist..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reagan_Democrat

A lot of these were Perot voters because of free trade/immigration/"American worker"/"Make America Great Again"/etc. vibes.

Trump is tapping that same vein so hard he's going to suck it dry. China China China Mexico's Smarter China China We're Losing China China The Kurds Got A Bad Deal China China China American Jobs Mexico China Rapists Mexico China China Schlonged.
 
Why USA network? WHY, is Elliot and Mr. Robot smoking in your 2015 tv series?

I just caught the first episode, and the series looks promising, but for the "lungs of the young generation", everywhere, why do you have your main characters playing russian roulette with cancer, as it added practically nothing to the mood of the show. I just don't get how cigarettes are still so prominent in our culture, and it really pisses me off (can you tell?)!
 

BSsBrolly

Banned
Trump is tapping that same vein so hard he's going to suck it dry. China China China Mexico's Smarter China China We're Losing China China The Kurds Got A Bad Deal China China China American Jobs Mexico China Rapists Mexico China China Schlonged.

Throw in a few sentences about Mexicans "invading," how BLM is bullshit, and you have the jist of or conversation last night... I was dumbfounded.
 

User 406

Banned
Throw in a few sentences about Mexicans "invading," how BLM is bullshit, and you have the jist of or conversation last night... I was dumbfounded.

Mmmyep, that's diet racist all right. I had the same epiphany about an uncle years ago. Never would have guessed it from a lifetime of interactions with him, but one day I was going to help him do some work, and he drove me in his truck listening to Rush Limbaugh the whole time. Rush was raging about immigrants and welfare moochers and all that, and my uncle was nodding and saying, "Yeah, that's right!" right along with him. You never can tell I guess.
 

He apparently also had a background in computer programming (graduated from Cal-Berkeley with "concentrations in computer science"), so given his extensive experience with the system, the idea that he wouldn't know his actions were being logged, was a little hard to swallow, also, his explanation, "I was just documenting the breach", didn't cut the mustard, at all, given the logs, but fits perfectly with a "setup" angle...

As I previously commented, I think the whole escapade backfired sufficiently on the DNC, and if anything, boosted Bernie's support :).
 

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
I haven't been in the thread for a while but one of these fine totally not delusional posters is a deliberate character, right?
 

Makai

Member
Daniel B·;190539699 said:
He apparently also had a background in computer programming (graduated from Cal-Berkeley with "concentrations in computer science"), so given his extensive experience with the system, the idea that he wouldn't know his actions were being logged, was a little hard to swallow, also, his explanation, "I was just documenting the breach", didn't cut the mustard, at all, given the logs, but fits perfectly with a "setup" angle...

As I previously commented, I think the whole escapade backfired sufficiently on the DNC, and if anything, boosted Bernie's support :).
Come on lol.
 
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