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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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N

NeoXChaos

Member
ivysaur12 said:
RECRUITMENT!!





To summarize:

NV: Catherine Cortez-Masto
FL: Patrick Murphy
IL: Tammy Duckworth
WI: Russ Feingold

OH: Ted Strickland
AZ: Ann Kirkpatrick
MO: Jason Kander
IN: Baron Hill

NH?: Maggie Hassan
NC???: Kay Hagan
PA:-( : Joe Sestak
Click to expand...

The bitterness over Sestak is now becoming childess. If they cant find someone in the next 6 months then they need to suck it up and support the man. Sestak needs all the dollars he can get against toomey
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Hagan might not be a great NC candidate but she's the best I can think of - the only other candidate who would do really well is Roy Cooper who's already running for governor.

The DSCC needs to give up on finding a replacement for Sestak. He's fine and came really damn close to winning in 2010.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
EPA came out with a report on Fracking that both sides are claiming victory over.

Report found here.

Major Findings

From our assessment, we conclude there are above and below ground mechanisms by which hydraulic fracturing activities have the potential to impact drinking water resources. These mechanisms include water withdrawals in times of, or in areas with, low water availability; spills of hydraulic fracturing fluids and produced water; fracturing directly into underground drinking water resources; below ground migration of liquids and gases; and inadequate treatment and discharge of wastewater.

We did not find evidence that these mechanisms have led to widespread, systemic impacts on drinking water resources in the United States. Of the potential mechanisms identified in this report, we found specific instances where one or more mechanisms led to impacts on drinking water resources, including contamination of drinking water wells. The number of identified cases, however, was small compared to the number of hydraulically fractured wells.

This finding could reflect a rarity of effects on drinking water resources, but may also be due to other limiting factors. These factors include: insufficient pre- and post-fracturing data on the quality of drinking water resources; the paucity of long-term systematic studies; the presence of other sources of contamination precluding a definitive link between hydraulic fracturing activities and an impact; and the inaccessibility of some information on hydraulic fracturing activities and potential impacts.
Click to expand...

Basically, with data we do have it's probably between 0.4 to 12.2 spills per 100 wells. There are 25,000 to 30,000 new fracking wells every year.

The EPA studied 225 cases in which produced water spilled on or near a well pad. 8% of those spills have resulted in fracking chemicals reaching surface water or groundwater. Going from the reported chemicals in fracking use in states that require that, health effects from this could include the potential for carcinogenesis, immune system effects, changes in body weight, changes in blood chemistry, pulmonary toxicity, neurotoxicity, liver and kidney toxicity, and reproductive and developmental toxicity.

As far as water being used for fracking, only about 1% of our nation's water goes towards fracking. However, on a local level, counties with fracking have a much higher percentage of their water going towards fracking, and some counties are at risk of their local water wells running out if fracking continues to expand.

Seems to me that it's not exactly at the "everybody panic" level climate change is, and honestly, on a national level there's not much reason to panic at all. However, on a smaller scale, some of these counties should probably be very weary of what fracking could do to them.
 
J

Jack Remington

Banned
Interesting article about how the Democrats should be doing more to prepare for a defeat in KvB.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rob-sawicki/are-democrats-really-read_b_7486662.html

While most of us agree that the Supreme Court is unlikely to decide for the plaintiffs for a number of reasons, the possibility still exists.

Of course the only policy option in the event of defeat should be a one paragraph bill clarifying the phrase that's in dispute. But Democrats should be laying the public opinion groundwork by highlighting people who are getting treatment for serious medical conditions with insurance policies that they bought through healthcare.gov.

As ludicrous as it might sound, Democrats could lose both the case and the ensuing public opinion battle if they play it poorly.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Hagan might not be a great NC candidate but she's the best I can think of - the only other candidate who would do really well is Roy Cooper who's already running for governor.

The DSCC needs to give up on finding a replacement for Sestak. He's fine and came really damn close to winning in 2010.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I don't know who you would nominate in NC. It's quite the conundrum for Tester.

And yeah, they just need to get behind Sestak.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Jack Remington said:
Interesting article about how the Democrats should be doing more to prepare for a defeat in KvB.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rob-sawicki/are-democrats-really-read_b_7486662.html

While most of us agree that the Supreme Court is unlikely to decide for the plaintiffs for a number of reasons, the possibility still exists.

Of course the only policy option in the event of defeat should be a one paragraph bill clarifying the phrase that's in dispute. But Democrats should be laying the public opinion groundwork by highlighting people who are getting treatment for serious medical conditions with insurance policies that they bought through healthcare.gov.

As ludicrous as it might sound, Democrats could lose both the case and the ensuing public opinion battle if they play it poorly.
Click to expand...

I agree and it is what worries me most about a bad outcome from King. The Dems have to take advantage of the fact that the GOP is bullshitting on their "fix." A delay while repealing the mandates is not a fix, it fucking destroys the ACA. They want to pass it, Obama to veto it, and then they will scream "Obama won't compromise, we had a plan to delay the pain!"

They need to get their messaging out soon about this. And if they lose, which would also be bullshit, they need to make sure their fix is front and center, that it's simple, and that it's all on the GOP to not fix it. They somehow need to educate people that their fix is a bullshit poison pill. I don't know how to do that...most people are dumb and won't understand. Sigh.

the SCOTUS better not fuck this up. Their action could literally kill people.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
BertramCooper said:
Does the public have any tangible proof that DHS is actually succeeding at any of this?

I mean, as an ordinary U.S. citizen who has been granted no security clearance, I don't expect to have full and immediate access to sensitive DHS information. But as a relatively new and very expensive department, I think they need to prove that they deserve to exist.

Personally I just haven't heard or read much of anything that suggests that DHS has achieved much at all. But I'm more than fine with being proven wrong.
Click to expand...
It has improved in certain tasks, but overall its performance is deficient. It has failed to correct many of the inadequacies identified in pre-9/11 domestic intelligence gathering. Intelligence sharing between federal, state, and local agencies still needs improvement. The lack of a national response strategy to bioterrorism is especially problematic. Has the TSA been in the news lately? But on the other hand, it has improved its disaster preparedness capabilities. After the Katrina debacle, its response to Sandy was relatively competent. A major contributor to DHS's problems is a convoluted, dysfunctional oversight structure. It's nearly impossible to monitor its performance with oversight being split among various committees and subcommittees.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
My birthday is on the 28th. So best 30th birthday present ever? Lots of angry, bitter, conservative tears. I'll be drunk off of them all.

Mama Duggar doubling down on the transgender gonna molest your children.

During the interview, Kelly asked Michelle about a robocall she issued against an LGBT non-discrimination ordinance in Fayetteville, Arkansas last year, in which she claimed the measure would allow men, including "males with past child predator convictions that claim they are female," to use "womens' and girls' restrooms, locker rooms, showers, sleeping areas and other areas that are designated for females only."

The proposed legislation, which included real or perceived "gender identity," "gender expression" and "sexual orientation" among a list of classifications to receive protection from discrimination in employment and housing, was ultimately repealed in December 2014.

When Kelly implied that she had unfairly compared transgender people to child molesters given her son's recent admissions, Michelle doubled down on that stance.

"I think that protecting young girls and not allowing young men and men in general to go into a girls’ locker room is just common sense," she said. "This is more about — there's an agenda, and there's people that are purposing to try to bring things out and twisting them to hurt and slander."

Jim Bob also chimed in, specifying Michelle had said "pedophile," while their son, who was in his early teens at the time of the alleged molestations, was "a child preying on a child" given that the victims, including sisters Jessa Seewald and Jill Dillard, were also underage.
Click to expand...

Fuck that family.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I don't get why Jeb isn't the prohibitive favorite in all polling. The establishment has picked him. He has so much money. What are the hicks in Iowa doing?!?!
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
AndyD said:
That's pretty good right?
Click to expand...
The UE rate is up .1% but that's due to rising participation in the work force, which is good.

Wages are going up too. March's oddly pitiful numbers were revised up from 85,000 to 119,000.

Here's hoping Obama can leave office with sub-5% unemployment.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Here's hoping Obama leaves office!

and goes on to have a quiet yet fulfilling post-political career

Also Malia Obama is 100% going to become a TV writer. She interned on Extant last summer and I think she's doing something again in TV this summer.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
from the bls report

Professional and business services added 63,000 jobs in May and
671,000 jobs over the year. In May, employment increased in computer
systems design and related services (+10,000). Employment continued
to trend up in temporary help services (+20,000), in management and
technical consulting services (+7,000), and in architectural and
engineering services (+5,000).

Employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 57,000 in May,
following little change in the prior 2 months. In May, employment
edged up in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+29,000). Employment
in food services and drinking places has shown little net change over
the past 3 months.

Health care added 47,000 jobs in May. Within the industry, employment
in ambulatory care services (which includes home health care services
and outpatient care centers) rose by 28,000. Hospitals added 16,000
jobs over the month. Over the past year, health care has added 408,000
jobs.

Employment in retail trade edged up in May (+31,000). Over the prior
12 months, the industry had added an average of 24,000 jobs per month.
Within retail trade, automobile dealers added 8,000 jobs in May.

Construction employment continued to trend up over the month (+17,000)
and has increased by 273,000 over the past year.

In May, employment continued on an upward trend in transportation and
warehousing (+13,000). Truck transportation added 9,000 jobs over the
month.
Click to expand...
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Lots of professional jobs. Increases in hospitality/leisure which is obvious (it's summer). Overall this is another report that flies in the face of the lazy "all the jobs are bad jobs" argument.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Oblivion said:
Wow, nobody cares about jerbs numbers?
Click to expand...
Nah now it's Obama's foreign policy that's dragging him down. All we have to do is kill ISIS and we'll be fine on that front.

A comment in the daily DKElections thread said Virginia Supreme Court ordered a new Congressional map to be drawn by 9/1 to go into effect for the 2016 elections. Democrats could get a seat or two out of this.

Now we just need new maps in uh... Texas, North Carolina, Ohio, Michigan, Florida to name a few... No big deal whatever
 
T

thefro

Member
Aaron Strife said:
"Surging" is generous

Also I thought minorities were supposed to hate Hillary and abandon her in droves! Another concern troll meme put to rest
Click to expand...

Hillary actually had a huge lead over Obama amongst non-white voters in 2007 polls.

It wasn't until Obama won Iowa and Bill Clinton stepped in it in South Carolina that support shifted to him.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Obama should be in the upper 50s and 60s in polling by now. It sucks that the ultra partisanship strategy by McConnell and Boehner was successful in marginalizing Obama.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
and people still think Bernie Sanders has a shot despite consistent poll after poll show her dominating. Forget the general election since that is a seperate issue obviously

She was leading O'Malley 60% to 4% in his own state. Barring some implosion or health issue, she is going to be the nominee.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
At a closed-door Democratic leadership meeting Tuesday night, Reid (D-Nev.) vowed that his caucus wouldn't allow a single spending measure to get a floor vote, sources familiar with the meeting say. And on Thursday at noon, his top lieutenants announced their party's intentions to filibuster and prevent Republicans from even calling up the spending measures.

"We will not vote to proceed to the Defense appropriations bill or any appropriations bills until Republicans have sat down at the table and figured out with us how we’re going to properly fund the Defense Department … and our families' domestic needs,” said Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) at the news conference disclosing the strategy. […]

"Every day that goes by without an agreement to replace sequestration in a responsible way is a day that makes it tougher," said Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), calling GOP insistence on moving their own spending bills a "waste of time." She and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) took a full two months to hammer out the first agreement to lift the caps in 2013, she said—a pact that many lawmakers hope can be recreated this year. "It's getting us, every day, closer to a meltdown."
Click to expand...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/...-to-block-spending-bills-break-nbsp-sequester

What do you guys think? Back in 2011 after Republicans took control of the House, I knew that Obama wasn't gonna get most of the shit that he wanted done, but I always wondered why Democrats didn't threaten to cut Republican cherished programs like some shit on abstinence or something. We may not have gotten spending increases but at least we could have spread the pain around a bit.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
"Surging" is generous

Also I thought minorities were supposed to hate Hillary and abandon her in droves! Another concern troll meme put to rest
Click to expand...

Abandon her for whom?

Oblivion said:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/...-to-block-spending-bills-break-nbsp-sequester

What do you guys think? Back in 2011 after Republicans took control of the House, I knew that Obama wasn't gonna get most of the shit that he wanted done, but I always wondered why Democrats didn't threaten to cut Republican cherished programs like some shit on abstinence or something. We may not have gotten spending increases but at least we could have spread the pain around a bit.
Click to expand...
Aside from military spending, what other sacred cow could they go after?
 
F

Frank the Great

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
and people still think Bernie Sanders has a shot despite consistent poll after poll show her dominating. Forget the general election since that is a seperate issue obviously

She was leading O'Malley 60% to 4% in his own state. Barring some implosion or health issue, she is going to be the nominee.
Click to expand...

With how hard the media is trying to make the Dem primary appear like a race, imagine the general election even if Hilldawg is crushing the polls. I look forward to coverage of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as swing states and further suggestions of skewed polls.

It's all to Hilldawg's benefit of it discourages apathy though.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Aaron Strife said:
"Surging" is generous

Also I thought minorities were supposed to hate Hillary and abandon her in droves! Another concern troll meme put to rest
Click to expand...

Minorities supported Cuomo in the Cuomo v Teachout primary, so I'm not really surprised. Can only guess as to why this sort of thing tends to happen, but that's how it seems to typically go.

Hillary has talked more about the police state more than Sanders has, but I think it's more than just that.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
KAY HAGAN?!

http://www.newsobserver.com/news/po...mns-blogs/under-the-dome/article23214903.html

Interesting fundraiser coming up later this month.

It’s to benefit North Carolina’s Senate Democratic Caucus, and will be held at the inside-the-beltline home of Dean Debnam of Public Policy Polling.

Former U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan and state Senate Democratic Leader Dan Blue Jr. will be on hand. That’s the interesting part, because both of them have been mentioned as possible challengers to U.S. Sen. Richard Burr next year.

Neither has firmly committed to being in or out of that race.

Rounding out the June 18 special guests is state Sen. Terry Van Duyn, the Asheville Democrat who is her party’s whip in the Senate.

Tickets are $150 each, with contributions encouraged in amounts up to $2,500.
Click to expand...
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
RustyNails said:
Obama should be in the upper 50s and 60s in polling by now. It sucks that the ultra partisanship strategy by McConnell and Boehner was successful in marginalizing Obama.
Click to expand...

The public hates his foreign policy, which has nothing to do with congress, and gas prices are going up a tad. 48-50 makes sense.
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
Have there been any major polls on the Portman/Strickland race since the Quinnipiac one a while back that showed Ted with a big lead?

I haven't seen any since that one.
 
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