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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
AM I UNDER ARREST?

CN6q-_PUEAAe0O0.png
Click to expand...

He's shook.
 
F

Frank the Great

Banned
j_k_redtail said:
My suspicion has been that there are swaths of the GOP electorate that have not accepted the fact that minorities actually do vote.

Obama won just 39% of white voters in 2012. Thirty-nine. A few decades ago that would have meant a landslide victory for Mitt Romney. If you live in a blood-red, homogeneously white part of the country, it's possible that you don't know anyone who actually supported Obama's campaign.
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I agree with this. Hell, I'm a white guy who lives in blue New Jersey, and apart from my brother and my wife I do not know any white Obama supporters. Everyone I know hates the guy, including all of my family members apart from the two I mentioned. And they are only liberal because I persuaded them.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
The amount of conservatives offended by Jeb! speaking Spanish and having a Hispanic wife are terrifying.

Also, guys that rant about "lefties suppressing speech by yelling at me!" wanting to suppress thousands of other languages is... something.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
j_k_redtail said:
My suspicion has been that there are swaths of the GOP electorate that have not accepted the fact that minorities actually do vote.

Obama won just 39% of white voters in 2012. Thirty-nine. A few decades ago that would have meant a landslide victory for Mitt Romney. If you live in a blood-red, homogeneously white part of the country, it's possible that you don't know anyone who actually supported Obama's campaign.
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Yup, that too.

"Real 'murica" looks quite small once the cities turn out.
 
P

PlayALLtheGames

Banned
Latest Twitter duel: Trumpster vs Super PAC that "frequently supports Republican politicians and policies:

http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/02/politics/donald-trump-club-for-growth-twitter/index.html

Donald J. Trump ✔@realDonaldTrump
The president of the pathetic Club For Growth came to my office in N.Y.C. and asked for a ridiculous $1,000,000 contribution. I said no way!
Click to expand...

The Club for Growth @club4growth
Actually @realDonaldTrump asked for that mtg & then asked for races he could support. Thought he could buy us off. Worst Kind of Politician
Click to expand...

Who do you believe?
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Well, Trump's been doing great without them, and we know that SuperPacs are pond scum, so whatever, really.

One would be inclined to think that they sure could benefit from The Don more than he could from them, tho.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
This just came out about 20 mins ago..

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/republican-national-committee-2016-campaign-pledge-213283

RNC circulates loyalty pledge

The Republican National Committee on Wednesday privately reached out to GOP presidential campaigns to ask whether they’d be willing to sign a pledge stating they would not run as an independent candidate in the event they fail to win the Republican nomination in 2016.

“I [name] affirm that if I do not win the 2016 Republican nomination for president of the United States I will endorse the 2016 Republican presidential nominee regardless of who it is,” the pledge reads. “I further pledge that I will not seek to run as an independent or write-in candidate nor will I seek or accept the nomination for president of any other party.”

At least two campaigns reported they received a call from Katie Walsh, RNC chief of staff, asking if they would be willing to sign such a pledge.
The move is viewed as an attempt to force Donald Trump’s hand by forcing him to make clear his position on the issue.

An RNC spokeswoman, Allison Moore, declined to comment.
Click to expand...

So they're apparently still sweating this. I wonder if he'd resent this kind of thing.

"Hey Trumpy.. can you sign this pledge so that we can get down to bombarding your ass on TV? The ads are already cut."
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
HylianTom said:
This just came out about 20 mins ago..

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/republican-national-committee-2016-campaign-pledge-213283



So they're apparently still sweating this. I wonder if he'd resent this kind of thing.

"Hey Trumpy.. can you sign this pledge so that we can get down to bombarding your ass on TV? The ads are already cut."
Click to expand...

They're just digging their own graves at this point. El Yebe! has already started running ads against Trump, he jumped the gun.
 
D

dramatis

Member
I wonder if that reporter asking Jeb about Trump tipped Jeb over the edge so he came out swinging a bit too early ahead of the RNC. lol
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
The establishment going from: "we're fine, this guy is just like Cain." to actually freaking out and pulling out all the stops against him is funny.

Nate Silver is going to lose this one.
 
F

FyreWulff

Member
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
HylianTom said:
This just came out about 20 mins ago..

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/republican-national-committee-2016-campaign-pledge-213283



So they're apparently still sweating this. I wonder if he'd resent this kind of thing.

"Hey Trumpy.. can you sign this pledge so that we can get down to bombarding your ass on TV? The ads are already cut."
Click to expand...

They're scared because they know he'll take a 30% or greater chunk of voters. The problem is that his voters don't care about this pledge.

I still bet he signs it and promises not to run.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
The establishment going from: "we're fine, this guy is just like Cain." to actually freaking out and pulling out all the stops against him is funny.

Nate Silver is going to lose this one.
Click to expand...

Pretty much everyone has read Trump wrong, well except for a couple of us in here. Nate's good with the numbers and trends, Trump bucks all conventional wisdom. There are no trends that explain Trump. He's nothing new, but we haven't seen anything quite like him in a while either.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
My worry is that every establishment guy goes after Trump and leaves Carson alone, leaving him alone as the nominee. That clown's tax plan would destroy our country.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Plinko said:
They're scared because they know he'll take a 30% or greater chunk of voters. The problem is that his voters don't care about this pledge.

I still bet he signs it and promises not to run.
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Far more likely that he calls the RNC out on this pledge BS. Should go over well since his base already thinks that hes being treated unfairly. Standard anti-establishment rethoric.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
B-Dubs said:
Pretty much everyone has read Trump wrong, well except for a couple of us in here. Nate's good with the numbers and trends, Trump bucks all conventional wisdom. There are no trends that explain Trump. He's nothing new, but we haven't seen anything quite like him in a while either.
Click to expand...

Well, not in the US, but we've seen tons of Trumps in other places recently. The Sweden Democrats are very Trump-like and they're leading the polls in what is usually considered the most progressive country in the world.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
"Low energy kind of guy" has to be one of the greatest disses in recent history. It's so simple and passive aggressive.

You can tell Jeb is feeling the heat from his donors.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
So let me get this straight. Trump is succeeding so far by running (at least perception wise) a populist campaign.

So Jeb!'s team decides to attack Trump in an ad for...being populist?


Jeb!'s guys have no idea what they're during. Like, at all.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Jeb's team reminds me of the unskewed polling guy. Clings to what worked for his brother years ago and ignore current trends.

Carly Fiorina said:
"I would make two phone calls, day one, in the Oval Office. The first would be to Bibi Netanyahu. The second would be to the Supreme Leader of Iran. And while he might not take my phone call, he would get the message," Fiorina told Fox News in May.
Click to expand...

The constant pandering to Israel is disgusting to me.
 
M

Maledict

Member
RustyNails said:
For reference, did Mitt go negative against others?
Click to expand...

Mit carpet bombed the others. Repeatedly. He went utterly thermo nucleur on Gingrage twice (first in Iowa, then in Florida), and similarly against Santoruam later on.

It was major concern of the republican donar base - Mitt was winning by throwing insane amounts of money onto the airwaves to kill his opponents, rather than actually winning the arguments and through building a solid base of support.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
HylianTom said:
This just came out about 20 mins ago..

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/republican-national-committee-2016-campaign-pledge-213283



So they're apparently still sweating this. I wonder if he'd resent this kind of thing.

"Hey Trumpy.. can you sign this pledge so that we can get down to bombarding your ass on TV? The ads are already cut."
Click to expand...

"The move is viewed as an attempt to force Donald Trump’s hand by forcing him to make clear his position on the issue."

How exactly has he not made his position clear? He was center stage at a Republican debate saying he would not automatically back the party nominee
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Black Mamba said:
So let me get this straight. Trump is succeeding so far by running (at least perception wise) a populist campaign.

So Jeb!'s team decides to attack Trump in an ad for...being populist?


Jeb!'s guys have no idea what they're during. Like, at all.
Click to expand...

You should go into the thread and see Trump's response ad. Goddamn Jeb! is gonna be feeling that ether for years.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Plinko said:
Jeb's team reminds me of the unskewed polling guy. Clings to what worked for his brother years ago and ignore current trends.
Click to expand...

Really highlights the utter lack of GOP talent in the campaign aide/manager/adviser realm. They no longer have the "smartest guys in the room" - instead they're stuck circulating a bunch of people who lost primary or general election campaigns big time. Similar to the gutter democrats found themselves in during the 80s.

Seems like the biggest effect Romney will have on the party is ushering in the rise of untalented, overpaid consultants taking over political campaigns. Guys who look and sound the part, but that's it; funny you could apply that to Mitt Romney as well ha.
 
U

User 406

Banned
thepotatoman said:
I would agree with this.

I got similar questions from a poster that included them saying a republican candidate for governor was for all sorts of school reforms that sounded really great, but I didn't feel comfortable saying I approved of it until I could look into the details of it. The questions asked about the Democrat governor I was able to say I approved because I knew what those were about, and maybe there was more willingness to take them at face value when you know you're coming from similar core beliefs about things like believing the free market isn't the answer to everything.

Maybe disapproval would be a better metric for partisanship of things like this, since it's reasonable to go from approve to don't know if you don't yet know enough details about the other side's plan.
Click to expand...

I think this is basically the issue. It's not partisan hackery per se, its just an assumption that the other side is intrinsically dishonest. Lefties won't trust Republicans talking about making Social Security "sustainable" because they expect privatization that ends up gutting the program. Right-wingers won't trust Democrats talking about universal health care because they expect loss of doctor choice and death panels and so on.

Some if it stems from propaganda, and some of it from a history of deception, but the upshot is that who is saying something actually matters as far as whether or not they are believed. I also would be hesitant to agree with Trump about "universal healthcare" because I have no god damn idea what he could possibly mean by it. By contrast I'm quite familiar with Democratic proposals and ideas on the subject. If it turns out that Trump really does mean UHC in the way that other countries implement it, I'm totally down*. But in a contextless poll like that?

It's not just I LIKE THING or I DON'T LIKE THING based on who is saying it. It's who you actually believe is being truthful about thing.



* Not down enough to risk global thermonuclear war when Trump puts his bubble-inflated ego up against Putin's bubble-inflated ego but you get the idea.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Plinko said:
My worry is that every establishment guy goes after Trump and leaves Carson alone, leaving him alone as the nominee. That clown's tax plan would destroy our country.
Click to expand...

I feel like a flat tax is one of those things that idiot politicians say would be a good idea just to pander to their idiot base, but there's no goddamned way in hell it would ever actually pass. It would be way too dangerous. If republicans actually passed that, I feel like they would die as a party. It would destroy them.

It's kind of like how we talked for a while about how Republicans don't actually want to repeal Obamacare. They know it'll go nowhere, so they vote to repeal it and make their base happy. If it were actually on the table to repeal at this point they'd really hesitate. It's like that, but way moreso, because we'd all feel that tax change on day fucking 1, and Obamacare hasn't got its grips into us quite as much as it will. Not quite as much as our tax system right now does.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Really highlights the utter lack of GOP talent in the campaign aide/manager/adviser realm. They no longer have the "smartest guys in the room" - instead they're stuck circulating a bunch of people who lost primary or general election campaigns big time. Similar to the gutter democrats found themselves in during the 80s.

Seems like the biggest effect Romney will have on the party is ushering in the rise of untalented, overpaid consultants taking over political campaigns. Guys who look and sound the part, but that's it; funny you could apply that to Mitt Romney as well ha.
Click to expand...
Yup. Guys like Karl Rove are highly overrated. 2004 was the right place at the right time and then he blew 2008 and 2012. Granted, no Republican would have won in 08 but his SuperPAC investing millions into congressional races in 2012 and then actually losing seats was pretty embarrassing.

In fact Dem performance in downballot races in 2012 (the fact that they win nearly all the close ones often in very inhospitable territory) is what gives me hope that 2016 will be a big year for Senate Democrats. And even in the House I would say by winning back the seats lost in 2014 (IA-1, IL-10, ME-2, NH-1, NV-4, NY-19 to name a few, all low-hanging fruit), picking up some of the marginal seats (CO-6, IA-3, MI-1, PA-8 being some examples) and getting a huge assist from court-drawn maps in Virginia and Florida they might even be able to cobble together a slim majority. But that's probably asking too much.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Yup. Guys like Karl Rove are highly overrated. 2004 was the right place at the right time and then he blew 2008 and 2012. Granted, no Republican would have won in 08 but his SuperPAC investing millions into congressional races in 2012 and then actually losing seats was pretty embarrassing.

In fact Dem performance in downballot races in 2012 (the fact that they win nearly all the close ones often in very inhospitable territory) is what gives me hope that 2016 will be a big year for Senate Democrats. And even in the House I would say by winning back the seats lost in 2014 (IA-1, IL-10, ME-2, NH-1, NV-4, NY-19 to name a few, all low-hanging fruit), picking up some of the marginal seats (CO-6, IA-3, MI-1, PA-8 being some examples) and getting a huge assist from court-drawn maps in Virginia and Florida they might even be able to cobble together a slim majority. But that's probably asking too much.
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Mr. Optimistic :D

The language of the draft pledge speaks directly to the issue vexing Republicans – the possibility that the billionaire could choose to wage a third party bid if he fails to win the GOP nomination, a prospect that could seriously damage the GOP’s prospects of reclaiming the White House. Tapping into deep anti-establishment animosity among the conservative grassroots, Trump has surged to the lead of the deepest presidential field in recent memory. If Trump were to pull just a fraction of the vote as an independent, write-in or third party candidate, it could be enough to sink the eventual Republican nominee.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/...tee-2016-campaign-pledge-213283#ixzz3kcldT45A
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could? I figured it "would" be enough to sink the nominee.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
Mr. Optimistic :D
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I mean. That's a very best case scenario. I don't think it'll pan out. I do think however Democrats will at least win most of their seats back that they lost in 2014. Pete Gallego (TX-24?) and Tim Bishop (NY-1) are two other examples that quickly come to mind.
 
T

Third Strike

Member
Aaron Strife said:
I mean. That's a very best case scenario. I don't think it'll pan out. I do think however Democrats will at least win most of their seats back that they lost in 2014. Pete Gallego (TX-24?) and Tim Bishop (NY-1) are two other examples that quickly come to mind.
Click to expand...

Do you think the Democrats will at least have more seats than in 2012? Back then, they had 201 in the House.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
HylianTom said:
This just came out about 20 mins ago..

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/republican-national-committee-2016-campaign-pledge-213283



So they're apparently still sweating this. I wonder if he'd resent this kind of thing.

"Hey Trumpy.. can you sign this pledge so that we can get down to bombarding your ass on TV? The ads are already cut."
Click to expand...

I don't get it. He went on national television and said he wouldn't sign such a pledge. This isn't news to anyone. What does them actually doing the pledge do to him or his base of voters? Obviously fucking nothing.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
RDreamer said:
I don't get it. He went on national television and said he wouldn't sign such a pledge. This isn't news to anyone. What does them actually doing the pledge do to him or his base of voters? Obviously fucking nothing.
Click to expand...
If 15 out of 16 candidates sign the pledge and Trump being the odd man out, it will allow other candidates to question his loyalty ("Why won't he sign the pledge???") and essentially try to ensnare him. This is just a triangulation effort by the RNC to put a dent on Trump's campaign by generating talking points against him.

This RNC gambit is dangerously close to the sun. Trump will bolt out the door as soon as RNC stops stroking his ego. If Trump decides to run a 3rd party bid, we all know the outcome of that.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
The people who support him are tired of the Republican Party. They don't care if he does not sign the pledge. The RNC are idiots. Trump I personally believe wants to run third party. He just needs to build enough support to do it when the time is right. Slamming Jeb gets him there. Building up enough animosity that the Republican Party dares to nominate Bush. He can just go "See I told you the establishment was set up against me and Jeb is the result" "You dont want another Bush or Clinton? Vote for me. Write me in or check me on ballot"

Trump has an ego. If he can get into the history books as a spoiler to the Republican Party I don't think he would mind. He loves the Clinton's. He is just lying to people.

Even if Mr. Trump does sign the pledge, it is a party-produced document and is not legally binding. The national party’s sudden move comes as some state parties, including early-voting South Carolina, have moved to adopt similar loyalty oaths for candidates to participate in their primaries or caucuses.
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H

HylianTom

Banned
RDreamer said:
I don't get it. He went on national television and said he wouldn't sign such a pledge. This isn't news to anyone. What does them actually doing the pledge do to him or his base of voters? Obviously fucking nothing.
Click to expand...

I see it mainly as them poking the bear. He's in the catbird seat here; if they mess with the bull too much, they're gonna get the horns. {*insert fourth animal idiom here*}

===

And now, Breitbart is reporting that Reince will be paying a visit to Trump Tower tomorrow afternoon to discuss this very topic. !!!
 
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