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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
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CrimzonSamurai
Member
I feel like as long as they keep the regulations forbidding discrimination based on gender or pre-existing conditions, they could pull something together. If they try and repeal before replacing though, they're fooked.
jamesinclair
Banned
I feel like as long as they keep the regulations forbidding discrimination based on gender or pre-existing conditions, they could pull something together. If they try and repeal before replacing though, they're fooked.
What are they going to replace it with, Romneycare?
We already have the republican plan implemented. You either go back to Somaliacare, or move to the democrat plan.
I feel like as long as they keep the regulations forbidding discrimination based on gender or pre-existing conditions, they could pull something together. If they try and repeal before replacing though, they're fooked.
That's the issue though, not presenting anything as an alternative. Or just broad points that are not a real plan. Individually, the provisions of ACA are more popular as a whole, so presenting one by one can be another can of worms.
CrimzonSamurai
Member
What are they going to replace it with, Romneycare?
We already have the republican plan implemented. You either go back to Somaliacare, or move to the democrat plan.
That's for them to figure out, I just meant the could do it in the sense that it wouldn't thrash the whole system too badly. You can't just eliminate the liability pools and have the insurance market remain stable.
I'm fine with the ACA.
Obamacare's overall approval rating doesn't really matter anymore when it comes to actuall legislation. Very few people support a total repeal, and all of the law's main pieces (except for the mandate) are very popular when polled separately. It will be impossible to get rid of the parts they don't like while keeping the parts they do. It's just not going to happen, they already lost the debate on health care. I would almost bet that the GOP dials down repeal talk leading up to the election for fear of driving up Democratic turnout.
Fenderputty
Banned
The people seeing benefits don't vote consistently, and when they do they tend to vote for democrats anyway. Again, I don't think there's huge danger for republicans on Obamacare. It's not popular and really doesn't help middle class voters overall, which is why it's unpopular. If you have a good job chances are you have insurance through your employer - which is more expensive now. Not due to Obamacare, but that's what gets blamed.
It's not going to be fully repealed, but if a republican wins in 2016 I'd imagine the law would see some major changes. For the worse.
I'm not sure that's really applies to the people who are benefiting from the ACA.
wouldnt selecting Castro be bad since the Republicans would double down on the ticket as being a continuation of Obama's agenda "Third Term" Charge. If Obama is polling bad next summer/early fall 2016, then Castro will be a liability.
I have no doubt he will be competent on the stump and in the VP debate between him and rubio but.... I have my worry.
I have no doubt he will be competent on the stump and in the VP debate between him and rubio but.... I have my worry.
Aaron Strife
Banned
If Obama is polling bad - enough to sink Hillary - then her VP pick won't matter. In fact I would say the VP choice won't matter at all unless they're particularly bad like Palin, the VP pick doesn't sway votes much.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
wouldnt selecting Castro be bad since the Republicans would double down on the ticket as being a continuation of Obama's agenda "Third Term" Charge. If Obama is polling bad next summer/early fall 2016, then Castro will be a liability.
I have no doubt he will be competent on the stump and in the VP debate between him and rubio but.... I have my worry.
Republicans are going to do this even if Hillary picks an 85-year old white man to be VP.
eBay Huckster
Member
wouldnt selecting Castro be bad since the Republicans would double down on the ticket as being a continuation of Obama's agenda "Third Term" Charge.
She'd get that criticism from them even if she nominated Murray Rothbard from beyond the grave
CrimzonSamurai
Member
http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/16/politics/chris-christie-marijuana/
Christie's rise and fall is going to make for great political literature down the line.
States Rights! Right, you guys?
Christie's rise and fall is going to make for great political literature down the line.
States Rights! Right, you guys?
Aaron Strife
Banned
Biden as permanent VP pleaseRepublicans are going to do this even if Hillary picks an 85-year old white man to be VP.
This fight over the Medicaid expansion in Florida is pretty epic,
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/florida-lawsuit-sue-obamacare-medicaid-rick-scott-117051.html
If I got this straight, Scott is pissed that the Obama administration is refusing to fund some other not-Medicaid program who's target population would be better served by the Medicaid expansion. He claims this violates the NFIB ruling, even though this is an optional program with an expiration date totally unrelated to the state's Medicaid funding. Even Republican leaders in the Florida Senate think it's a dumb idea. Gonna be interesting to see how this ends.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/florida-lawsuit-sue-obamacare-medicaid-rick-scott-117051.html
If I got this straight, Scott is pissed that the Obama administration is refusing to fund some other not-Medicaid program who's target population would be better served by the Medicaid expansion. He claims this violates the NFIB ruling, even though this is an optional program with an expiration date totally unrelated to the state's Medicaid funding. Even Republican leaders in the Florida Senate think it's a dumb idea. Gonna be interesting to see how this ends.
castro isn't getting the VP
that would be the hail mary move of a losing candidate. not saying it's a "bad" move, but you don't yank somebody from mayor to the second highest office when the odds are in your favor like hillary's
weirder selections have been made, and he may even get vetted. who knows. but that's People magazine stuff
that would be the hail mary move of a losing candidate. not saying it's a "bad" move, but you don't yank somebody from mayor to the second highest office when the odds are in your favor like hillary's
weirder selections have been made, and he may even get vetted. who knows. but that's People magazine stuff
There is a guy at this bar in LaGuardia with a shirt that says "Obama loves America like OJ loved Nicole"
Looool
So Obama loves coercive violence to get his way.
At least we found Benji!
Castro is the Secretary of Housing and Urban Developmentcastro isn't getting the VP
that would be the hail mary move of a losing candidate. not saying it's a "bad" move, but you don't yank somebody from mayor to the second highest office when the odds are in your favor like hillary's
weirder selections were made, and he may even get vetted. who knows. but that's People magazine stuff
http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/16/politics/chris-christie-marijuana/
Christie's rise and fall is going to make for great political literature down the line.
States Rights! Right, you guys?
The pit he is making with his fall is gonna make the Mariana Trench jealous. Because he is cratering. And he's fat and a shit.
True. The VP nominee only matters when they perform poorly. The best option is to choose someone with experience that's unlikely to fumble. I understand the enthusiasm for Castro, but he's not the inevitable choice. His only political experience has been at the city level, and he's been the Secretary of HUD for less than a year. That would make any presidential nominee reluctant to select him.If Obama is polling bad - enough to sink Hillary - then her VP pick won't matter. In fact I would say the VP choice won't matter at all unless they're particularly bad like Palin, the VP pick doesn't sway votes much.
Right. The individual provisions are highly popular. Unfortunately, large and convoluted policies are often inscrutable. As the poll indicates, many Americans are unaware that the ACA contains the provisions they support. Even the most ardent critics support certain provisions when pressed on them. I agree that the ship has sailed. Gradually, Republicans will accept the ACA. I don't know if they'll temper their rhetoric for this election. But over the next decade, it will become impossible to repeal the law without pissing everyone off.Obamacare's overall approval rating doesn't really matter anymore when it comes to actuall legislation. Very few people support a total repeal, and all of the law's main pieces (except for the mandate) are very popular when polled separately. It will be impossible to get rid of the parts they don't like while keeping the parts they do. It's just not going to happen, they already lost the debate on health care. I would almost bet that the GOP dials down repeal talk leading up to the election for fear of driving up Democratic turnout.
"Special interests" as defined by Hayek. As in code for unions and ethnic minorities making demands of the state.Lobbied... against special interest politics.
Does he just not know what lobbying is, or...?
Buying insurance policies across state lines.Still waiting for the GOP alternative for the ACA.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
I should have asked about the banSo Obama loves coercive violence to get his way.
At least we found Benji!
Castro is the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
So he has a few years of that going for him + he was a mayor who didn't have that much power compared to other cities.
His brother on the other hand worked in the state legislature, and is now a congressional rep. And he's a better speaker.
If Hillary was looking at accomplishments, fresh faceness, Mexican-Americanness, and only at politicians with the last name Castro, I'd recommend the other brother.
But I don't think Hillary will pick either. I hope she picks another accomplished woman. That would be kinda neat.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I should have asked about the ban
He'll be back in a couple weeks.
Yellowtail
Member
@maggieNYT
Jeb: "I actually cook at home. I don't need to go to Chipotle." Says he drives his own car there when he goes, parks his own car.
Jeb is a man of the people y'all! He doesn't eat at take outs!
Jeb: "I actually cook at home. I don't need to go to Chipotle." Says he drives his own car there when he goes, parks his own car.
Jeb is a man of the people y'all! He doesn't eat at take outs!
@maggieNYT
Jeb: "I actually cook at home. I don't need to go to Chipotle." Says he drives his own car there when he goes, parks his own car.
Jeb is a man of the people y'all! He doesn't eat at take outs!
I don't want a president who doesn't eat at Chipotle.
CrimzonSamurai
Member
@maggieNYT
Jeb: "I actually cook at home. I don't need to go to Chipotle." Says he drives his own car there when he goes, parks his own car.
Jeb is a man of the people y'all! He doesn't eat at take outs!
He drives his own car, too? My confidence in his possession of the nuclear football can only go up, I guess.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Could have been worse.I don't want a president who doesn't eat at Chipotle.
He could have said he ate at Qdoba.
CrimzonSamurai
Member
Could have been worse.
He could have said he ate at Qdoba.
Ted Cruz is the real people's man. He eats at Moe's SouthWestern Grill.
Add a pinch of tort reform and a dash of health savings accounts, and you've got the Republican plan.Buying insurance policies across state lines.
Poodlestrike
Banned
Ted Cruz is the real people's man. He eats at Moe's SouthWestern Grill.
Makes sense. Moe's is to food as Ted Cruz is to legitimate candidates.
CrimzonSamurai
Member
Makes sense. Moe's is to food as Ted Cruz is to legitimate candidates.
It's just a conspiracy to hide that his true loyalty lies with Tim Horton's.
Eh? Eh? You guys get it? Maple syrup!
Watching the Maddow-Reid interview right now. He says that he has absolutely no doubt that Nevada is now a true-blue state for presidential elections, and that Hillary will prove it next year.
I keep wavering on whether to include it as an "assumed blue" state (a la Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc), but he'd be in position to be familiar with the state's climate.. right?
If so, Virginia puts her exactly at 270.
..
Regarding VP: Hillary-Castro or Hillary-{Virginia politician} works for me. I still love that she gets to bat last in this department.
..
And finally..
There's a same-sex marriage vote coming-up next month in Ireland, and a pretty good ad has started airing on TV recently.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkwYEhjjZhs
I could see a similar ad airing here in the US in late October 2016. Hell, they could use the same song.
I keep wavering on whether to include it as an "assumed blue" state (a la Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc), but he'd be in position to be familiar with the state's climate.. right?
If so, Virginia puts her exactly at 270.
..
Regarding VP: Hillary-Castro or Hillary-{Virginia politician} works for me. I still love that she gets to bat last in this department.
..
And finally..
There's a same-sex marriage vote coming-up next month in Ireland, and a pretty good ad has started airing on TV recently.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkwYEhjjZhs
I could see a similar ad airing here in the US in late October 2016. Hell, they could use the same song.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yup. If Clinton holds the Kerry states and Nevada and New Mexico (NM especially should be considered safe at this point) she could win by holding Virginia even losing Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, and Florida.Watching the Maddow-Reid interview right now. He says that he has absolutely no doubt that Nevada is now a true-blue state for presidential elections, and that Hillary will prove it next year.
I keep wavering on whether to include it as an "assumed blue" state (a la Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc), but he'd be in position to be familiar with the state's climate.. right?
If so, Virginia puts her exactly at 270.
..
Regarding VP: Hillary-Castro or Hillary-{Virginia politician} works for me. I still love that she gets to bat last in this department.
..
And finally..
There's a same-sex marriage vote coming-up next month in Ireland, and a pretty good ad has started airing on TV recently.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkwYEhjjZhs
I could see a similar ad airing here in the US in late October 2016. Hell, they could use the same song.
And that's the thing, I don't know if a Democrat (so even like, Martin O'Malley) would have much trouble holding any of the Kerry states in a close election. Obviously if the GOP was really running away with it we'd start to worry about states like Pennsylvania, but at that point we're screwed anyway. A tied popular vote would most likely break to the Democrats and I don't even think it would be uncomfortably close.
Yup. If Clinton holds the Kerry states and Nevada and New Mexico (NM especially should be considered safe at this point) she could win by holding Virginia even losing Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, and Florida.
And that's the thing, I don't know if a Democrat (so even like, Martin O'Malley) would have much trouble holding any of the Kerry states in a close election. Obviously if the GOP was really running away with it we'd start to worry about states like Pennsylvania, but at that point we're screwed anyway. A tied popular vote would most likely break to the Democrats and I don't even think it would be uncomfortably close.
At some point, someone is going to do an analysis determining what the popular vote margin would need to be in order for the GOP ticket to win at least 269EVs in, say, 95% of all simulations. I'm guessing they'd need at least 1% now, just due to the way the map's math has fallen.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Romney would have needed a bit more than 1%. The thing is states don't swing universally but that sounds about right.
JesseEwiak
Member
Kirsten Gillibrand would be a great pick, yeah.
From the same state, at least for now. Unless Hillary pulls a Cheney and "moves" her registration to Arkansas.
Still waiting for the GOP alternative for the ACA.
It's already here and fixing health care. Obama be damned!
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/04/uninsured-rate-falls-again-for-random-reason.html
Watching the Maddow-Reid interview right now. He says that he has absolutely no doubt that Nevada is now a true-blue state for presidential elections, and that Hillary will prove it next year.
I keep wavering on whether to include it as an "assumed blue" state (a la Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc), but he'd be in position to be familiar with the state's climate.. right?
If so, Virginia puts her exactly at 270.
..
Regarding VP: Hillary-Castro or Hillary-{Virginia politician} works for me. I still love that she gets to bat last in this department.
..
And finally..
There's a same-sex marriage vote coming-up next month in Ireland, and a pretty good ad has started airing on TV recently.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkwYEhjjZhs
I could see a similar ad airing here in the US in late October 2016. Hell, they could use the same song.
Republicans control everything in Nevada though after 2014. Its a swing state.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Watching the Maddow-Reid interview right now. He says that he has absolutely no doubt that Nevada is now a true-blue state for presidential elections, and that Hillary will prove it next year.
I keep wavering on whether to include it as an "assumed blue" state (a la Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc), but he'd be in position to be familiar with the state's climate.. right?
If so, Virginia puts her exactly at 270.
..
Regarding VP: Hillary-Castro or Hillary-{Virginia politician} works for me. I still love that she gets to bat last in this department.
..
And finally..
There's a same-sex marriage vote coming-up next month in Ireland, and a pretty good ad has started airing on TV recently.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkwYEhjjZhs
I could see a similar ad airing here in the US in late October 2016. Hell, they could use the same song.
Did Reid say anything about Obama?
Republicans control everything in Nevada though after 2014. Its a swing state.
I mean, they also control everything in Wisconsin, but that doesn't make it a swing state, per the latest polls.
And finally..
There's a same-sex marriage vote coming-up next month in Ireland, and a pretty good ad has started airing on TV recently.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkwYEhjjZhs
I could see a similar ad airing here in the US in late October 2016. Hell, they could use the same song.
That's, like, weirdly awkward. "C'mon, mom, it's time." What's so fucking ominous?!
If there was a way to make a 30-60 second version of this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TBd-UCwVAY
That's probably the best marriage equality-related ad I've seen.
In a decade it might not matter if the SCOTUS rules in favor of King and essentially shoots the law dead by blowing a huge hole in it.True. The VP nominee only matters when they perform poorly. The best option is to choose someone with experience that's unlikely to fumble. I understand the enthusiasm for Castro, but he's not the inevitable choice. His only political experience has been at the city level, and he's been the Secretary of HUD for less than a year. That would make any presidential nominee reluctant to select him.Right. The individual provisions are highly popular. Unfortunately, large and convoluted policies are often inscrutable. As the poll indicates, many Americans are unaware that the ACA contains the provisions they support. Even the most ardent critics support certain provisions when pressed on them. I agree that the ship has sailed. Gradually, Republicans will accept the ACA. I don't know if they'll temper their rhetoric for this election. But over the next decade, it will become impossible to repeal the law without pissing everyone off.
I mean, they also control everything in Wisconsin, but that doesn't make it a swing state, per the latest polls.
That's, like, weirdly awkward. "C'mon, mom, it's time." What's so fucking ominous?!
If there was a way to make a 30-60 second version of this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TBd-UCwVAY
That's probably the best marriage equality-related ad I've seen.
Polls will tighten Ivy. Both parties are gonna compete in WI and NV. They are swing states. No matter if Hillary is up 20pts in Wisconsin October 2016, it will still be a swing state. Romney's team competed in Nevada right up until September 2012.
Hobbestetrician
Member
Not exactly my definition of a swing state.Polls will tighten Ivy. Both parties are gonna compete in WI and NV. They are swing states. No matter if Hillary is up 20pts in Wisconsin October 2016, it will still be a swing state.
And lost it by 7%, meaning it was never a swing state.Romney's team competed in Nevada right up until September 2012.
Did Reid say anything about Obama?
Not much notable that I can remember. 90% of it was about Senate maneuvers, the Attorney General confirmation delay, and the impact of women in the Senate.
That's, like, weirdly awkward. "C'mon, mom, it's time." What's so fucking ominous?!
If there was a way to make a 30-60 second version of this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TBd-UCwVAY
That's probably the best marriage equality-related ad I've seen.
I saw it as more sentimental (maybe a bit sappy) more than off-putting. The song was a bit heavy though.
And that Australian commercial.. damn, you aren't kidding.
Not exactly my definition of a swing state.
And lost it by 7%, meaning it was never a swing state.
We must have very different definitions then. Dosent swing denote "either way"? Nevada was a swing state in 2012. It could have gone for Romney. All it takes is the right candidate to swing Nevada back to the Republicans. Same with WI, PA, MI etc
Kerry and Gore barely won WI in 2000 and 2004.
Hobbestetrician
Member
How was Romney going to swing what ended up being a 7 point difference? That is 3 points higher than the overall popular vote.We must have very different definitions then. Dosent swing denote "either way"? Nevada was a swing state in 2012. It could have gone for Romney. All it takes is the right candidate to swing Nevada back to the Republicans. Same with WI, PA, MI etc
But they still won it, in years with very close elections a Republican actually won (well, sort of).Kerry and Gore barely won WI in 2000 and 2004.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Nevada was won by Obama by almost seven points in 2012. I wouldn't call it a swing state but a lean D state which means it would flip under highly favorable circumstances.
The fact that Gore and Kerry carried Wisconsin even by small margins imo reinforces its status as a lean D state. It's about three points to the left of the nation - like Nevada.
The fact that Gore and Kerry carried Wisconsin even by small margins imo reinforces its status as a lean D state. It's about three points to the left of the nation - like Nevada.
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