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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
mysocksarepink said:
Won't be home until after 9est tonight. Is there anyway to watch the debate from the beginning instead of where it will be live?


Edit: hoping this is the appropriate place for this question hehe
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DVR?

I'm sure CNN will either have it up online after it's over or they'll have a repeat of the debate an hour or so after it's all said and done.
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
For anyone who wants a better grasp on why debates on equal pay end up being such a clusterfuck, check out that Jennifer Lawrence thread.

"SHE'S RICH! WHO CARES?"
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
I have to say that the far-far-right is pretty brilliantly self-organized/automatically-organizing.

Every time someone who has any bit of "Not a True Believer" is talked about as Speaker, they will send so many racial slurs at that person that that person will be dissuaded away from seeking the position. It's a horrible process, but it seems like it could be pretty effective work.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I have to say that the far-far-right is pretty brilliantly self-organized/automatically-organizing.

Every time someone who has any bit of "Not a True Believer" is talked about as Speaker, they will send so many racial slurs at that person that that person will be dissuaded away from seeking the position. It's a horrible process, but it seems like it could be pretty effective work.
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The most annoying thing about fascists is that they're pretty good at organizing themselves (and everybody else), it's true.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
A lot of candidates have gone in the wrong direction with the ascendancy of Trump over the summer, but none more so than home state hopeful Rick Santorum. In May he was in a tie for second place in the state at 12%. Now he's in tenth place at 2%. Beyond that his favorability rating has declined dramatically from +32 (57/25) all the way down to +10 (46/36). And 64% of Pennsylvania GOP voters think that it's time for Santorum to drop out of the race compared to just 23% who think he should continue on. No matter how you slice it things are looking pretty dire for Santorum.

Also dropping in a particularly spectacular fashion is Mike Huckabee. He was at 11% in May and has now dropped all the way down to 3% with a similar decline in his favorability from +38 (59/21) to only +9 (43/34). Huckabee is polling worse and worse as this campaign unfolds.
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I think the world not ending after gay marriage was made legal has made gay-bashing a lot less popular politically.

Pennsylvania makes another state where Republican primary voters don't even like Jeb Bush. Just 36% have a favorable opinion of him to 45% with a negative one. Donald Trump generally struggles in head to head match ups with his leading opponents- Ben Carson would lead him 52/38, Marco Rubio would edge him 45/44, and Trump would lead Carly Fiorina just 47/43. But when it comes to a head to head with Bush, Trump blows him out of the water with a 60/31 advantage. That suggests that not only is Bush not voters' first choice, he may not even be their third or fourth choice.
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Jeb! will never get good news again.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/10/trump-carson-tight-in-pa.html
 
R

Retromelon

Member
RoninChaos said:
LOL WTF.
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Fenderputty said:
Speaking of disappointment, have to tried these out yet :p

61NOoI10XCL._SY355_.jpg
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The funny thing about the truth is, you can hate it but you can't argue it
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
BertramCooper said:
I don't understand the constant need of many Bernie supporters to absolutely loathe Hillary Clinton and the bloodlust they seem to have for her. It's really weird.

Just because Republicans insist on having this sort of toxic shit in their campaigns doesn't mean that Democrats have to as well.
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Honestly is it any different from what Obama fanboys were doing in 2007 and early 2008, some of whom I might add still post in this thread? It's rather asinine to see Sanders and his supporters treated like some never-before-seen phenomena that warrants try-hard think pieces and a generally lazy, willful ignorance of his record/views.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Makai said:
I think you guys are way overhyping Rubio. Any on-stage dialogue about immigration will destroy him.
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He was able to weasel out of his abortion stance, so there is absolutely no reason why he can't do the same with the immigration link, especially after he pulled a McCain on the bill.
 
M

Makai

Member
RustyNails said:
I'm just happy Christopher Christie is greyed out.
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My doing. It's hard to see what's going on when there's twenty overlapping curves. Trump and Carson remain ever-popular. Everyone else is nosediving.

We Showed Up:

o9yXTFQ.png


We Tried:

gqvICBQ.png


Flavors of the Week:

e7Ya64q.png


Team Victory:

ghyUlkL.png
 
M

Makai

Member
RustyNails said:
He was able to weasel out of his abortion stance, so there is absolutely no reason why he can't do the same with the immigration link, especially after he pulled a McCain on the bill.
Click to expand...
Moderator: "Donald Trump wants to build a wall with Mexico and deport millions of undocumented immigrants. Why don't you tell him why he's wrong?"

Game Over.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Makai said:
Moderator: "Donald Trump wants to build a wall with Mexico and deport millions of undocumented immigrants. Why don't you tell him why he's wrong?"

Game Over.
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"I will build a bigger wall and catapult or trebuchet mexicans to the other side, whichever is faster"
 
M

Mario

Sidhe / PikPok
I was going to make a statement about how we are seeing brash, loud, and "entertaining" statements continuing to trump any statements of substance. But then I realized that nobody is making the latter. Establishment candidates are just ticking the boxes when it comes to putting forward any actual policy proposals, when they even bother to do that.

Establishment Republican candidates in recent elections rarely made substantive statements about policy or leadership. They trained the electorate to expect and be responsive to that. And now they are being outclassed in pandering to the base with shallow rhetoric by outsider candidates who are willing to be louder and more outrageous, and who don't have an actual political record to point at and show they "aren't conservative enough".

The establishment candidates have nothing to fall back on. Outside of JEB and his fat superpac balance perhaps. But even then, what will he spend it on? $100m worth of ads that will say what exactly?

When the two leading candidates in the polls have made dumb, xenophobic, impractical comments from the outset and throughout, and have only strengthened their leads in doing so, it's difficult to see how JEB or Rubio can reel them back in from here.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
I only have Trump at 30%. What metrics are you using to show him at 33%? Are you leaving out some polls?

Trust me, I'd love it if he were at 33%!
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
You guys should only include the serious candidates that our very smart poligaf posters have guessed at possibly winning for our contest.

jP7OUSm.png
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
ivysaur12 said:
The Pot And Anti-Pot Proposition Ads Are Coming.
Click to expand...

I have faith we won't be as stupid this time. I think with other states successfully implementing legalization, the negative FUD will be harder to pull off. I'm still pretty bitter California got beat by Colorado and Washington.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Carson climbing strongly after ridiculous, borderline Antisemitic comments.

Ben Carson is giving Donald Trump a run for his money, according to the latest Fox News national poll.

Support for Carson in the race for the Republican nomination has nearly doubled in the last two months, he is seen by voters as being more ethical than others, and he has the largest number of GOP primary voters who say they would definitely vote for him.

Ben Carson is giving Donald Trump a run for his money, according to the latest Fox News national poll.

Support for Carson in the race for the Republican nomination has nearly doubled in the last two months, he is seen by voters as being more ethical than others, and he has the largest number of GOP primary voters who say they would definitely vote for him.

That makes him well-positioned to overtake Trump.

In addition, the poll tested an array of general election match-ups and Carson is the only Republican to get 50 percent support. In a Carson vs. Hillary Clinton contest, he has the advantage by a 50-39 percent margin.

Running down the GOP race: Trump remains in the top spot with 24 percent, closely followed by Carson at 23 percent. Ted Cruz is third with 10 percent. Those are the only three who receive double-digit backing from Republican primary voters.

Next, it’s Marco Rubio (9 percent), Jeb Bush (8 percent), Carly Fiorina and Mike Huckabee (5 percent each), and Rand Paul (3 percent). The remaining candidates garner one percent or less.

Carson has climbed 11 points since mid-August when he registered at 12 percent, while support for Trump has mostly held steady.

Support for fellow outsider Fiorina is only about half what it was after the September debate, in which she was widely hailed the winner.

Voters are also asked to name their second-choice candidate. When first and second-choice preferences are considered together, Carson (41 percent) actually has the edge over Trump (37 percent).

The new poll finds the largest number of voters, 42 percent, thinks Carson is more ethical than the typical politician. President Barack Obama (35 percent) and Vice President Joe Biden (34 percent) come closest to matching Carson’s appeal on this measure.
Click to expand...

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...n-giving-trump-run-for-his-money-in-gop-race/

The GOP looking Sweden Democrats ish.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I worry that Trump's voters won't turn out but Carson's will be there in the primary. As I've been saying, I would not be surprised at all if Carson won. Everyone on here keeps saying he'll tank, but you said that about Trump, too. Carson made stupid comments like that and skyrocketed.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Running down the GOP race: Trump remains in the top spot with 24 percent, closely followed by Carson at 23 percent. Ted Cruz is third with 10 percent. Those are the only three who receive double-digit backing from Republican primary voters.
Click to expand...
Joke candidates

Next, it’s Marco Rubio (9 percent), Jeb Bush (8 percent)
Click to expand...
Frontrunners
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I wonder if the Republican Establishment will even bother to hype Fiorina after the next debate.

No Republicans care about her.
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It was fairly obvious that was going to happen when you take a step back and realize she's a woman and that their natural inclination is not to vote for one. I still have no idea how Palin overcame that and won their hearts.
 
D

Drakeon

Member
Plinko said:
I worry that Trump's voters won't turn out but Carson's will be there in the primary. As I've been saying, I would not be surprised at all if Carson won. Everyone on here keeps saying he'll tank, but you said that about Trump, too. Carson made stupid comments like that and skyrocketed.
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There's absolutely no way Carson can win a general being as gaffe prone as he is. I'm not worried in the least about him, he's shown a fundamental lack of understanding on a multitude of topics. Not to mention that Carson is the farthest you can get from exciting.

I think he could be a darkhorse to win the primary, but as far as winning the general? His statements and gaffes will sink him quickly. He'll also get destroyed in a debate if people are willing to actually go after him and not ignore him (aka the general election debates).
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Drakeon said:
There's absolutely no way Carson can win a general being as gaffe prone as he is. I'm not worried in the least about him, he's shown a fundamental lack of understanding on a multitude of topics. Not to mention that Carson is the farthest you can get from exciting.

I think he could be a darkhorse to win the primary, but as far as winning the general? His statements and gaffes will sink him quickly. He'll also get destroyed in a debate if people are willing to actually go after him and not ignore him (aka the general election debates).
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His favorables are STILL through the roof with the general public after he made those comments. It's mind-boggling.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Plinko said:
His favorables are STILL through the roof with the general public after he made those comments. It's mind-boggling.
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Honestly, I'm not at all surprised America still loves him after his "Muslims aren't citizens" mumbling.

His ridiculously pro-gun mumbling being popular doesn't surprise me either.

But I was surprised that being against the ADL didn't hurt him.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
lol

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/reid-new-hampshire-diss

Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has brought on the wrath of New Hampshire Republicans and Democrats alike by suggesting that the Granite State, along with Iowa, does not deserve its early primary state status considering its lack of diversity.

And he doesn't care if those remarks have early staters in a tizzy.

Unlike so many politicians who pander to New Hampshire and Iowa, Reid -- who is not running for reelection to his Senate seat -- dug in and did not yield on his comments.

Reid "apologized" Tuesday afternoon, telling reporters in Las Vegas, "New Hampshire is heavily populated and loaded with a lot of minorities, my apologies."

The fuss started at a Monday evening panel sponsored by the Washington Post in Las Vegas, during which Reid said he was "terribly upset about how we chose our presidents."

"You go to New Hampshire and there are no minorities there and nobody lives there and there are no minorities," Reid said, in remarks that were posted online by a GOP Super PAC. "You go to Iowa and there are a few people there but again that does not demonstrate what America is all about for different reasons."
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M

Manmademan

Member
Makai said:
Rubio below Cruz and Fiorina in rolling average. Trump at all-time high. Trump and Carson alone have majority :U

Xh8c29V.png
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I told y'all not to sleep on cruz

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I wonder if the Republican Establishment will even bother to hype Fiorina after the next debate.

No Republicans care about her, it's 100% manufactured.
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She had a good debate performance when the media was desperately looking for a "Trump Tanks" narrative.

unfortunately that's all she had- took the positive press and did jack shit with it. Trump on the other hand kept himself in the headlines because that's what works.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Carson won't be sunk by a controversial statement. He wasn't even harmed when he said Kim Davis should do her job. If he falls it'll be due to support solidifying among the establishment - for instance if Rubio levels up - or due to a scandal. Cain was doing pretty well until the cheating/sexual assault allegations sunk him.

Wouldn't be stunned at all if a similar scandal sinks Carson.
 
D

Drakeon

Member
Plinko said:
His favorables are STILL through the roof with the general public after he made those comments. It's mind-boggling.
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Yes, but isn't that because its October 2015? If it was a year from now, I'd be worried. But most of the public doesn't really pay attention for another 6-10 months.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Drakeon said:
Yes, but isn't that because its October 2015? If it was a year from now, I'd be worried. But most of the public doesn't really pay attention for another 6-10 months.
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Maybe so.

The one difference is that these have been major news stories and people just go "meh." Maybe when we get closer to the general election, people will start saying, "wait--THIS guy could be president?"

PhoenixDark said:
Wouldn't be stunned at all if a similar scandal sinks Carson.
Click to expand...

Of all the candidates, I think he's the least likely to have a scandal.
 
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