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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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E

eBay Huckster

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
Link? And are you talking about the same thing this is

http://www.theawl.com/2015/09/good-luck-to-human-kind

This is a really good read on nick land and how he ties in with the right, PUA, Trump, 4chan, etc
Click to expand...

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1127667 - thread link is here, posts justifying its existence are here (indirectly) and here

in light of the actual social theory with that name, i'm not entirely sure i should've used the term "accelerationism" - though in practice it is actually very similar

basically, it's the people saying we should just let republicans win, vote for the crazies, etc. in order for shit to hit rock bottom and radical social change in The Left's Favor to result
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
P

pigeon

Banned
eBay Huckster said:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1127667 - thread link is here, posts justifying its existence are here (indirectly) and here

in light of the actual social theory with that name, i'm not entirely sure i should've used the term "accelerationism" - though in practice it is actually very similar

basically, it's the people saying we should just let republicans win, vote for the crazies, etc. in order for shit to hit rock bottom and radical social change in The Left's Favor to result
Click to expand...

It is accelerationism in the left-wing sense, although back in the day we used to just call it hastening the glorious communist revolution. It's always been a popular idea among people who are 19.
 
D

Daniel B·

Banned
Sorry, to all those that think Hillary has the Dem nomination in the bag (despite losing all the debate focus groups and online polls), as, Bernie is the perfect candidate to bring about a political revolution, as is abundantly clear to anyone who watched the Q & A section of his 10/18 (post-debate) Iowa Town meeting. Need further evidence? Check out the friendly comments section :).

Bernie Sanders said:
Q: What is my vision for the Middle East and nation building?

A: First of all, we need an even handed policy toward the Middle East. Second of all, we need a two state solution. A two state solution means that Israel has got to be guaranteed its security, and its safety against terrorist attacks. The Palestinian people have got to be guaranteed their own independent state [Hearty applause from the crowd].
Click to expand...

Although this was a small gathering, the press was there in force, even CNN ;).

60phxwq.jpg
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Who said it: A ridiculous feminist strawman created by Rush Limbaugh or Dr. Ben Carson?

I think the Department of Education should monitor institutions of higher education for political bias and withhold federal funding if it exists.
Click to expand...
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Daniel B·;182492693 said:
Sorry, to all those that think Mitt has the GOP nomination in the bag (despite losing all the debate focus groups and online polls), as, Ron Paul is the perfect candidate to bring about a political revolution, as is abundantly clear to anyone who watched the Q & A section of his 10/18 (post-debate) Iowa Town meeting. Need further evidence? Check out the friendly comments section :).
Click to expand...

See. they're really the same.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Daniel B·;182492693 said:
Sorry, to all those that think Hillary has the Dem nomination in the bag (despite losing all the debate focus groups and online polls), as, Bernie is the perfect candidate to bring about a political revolution, as is abundantly clear to anyone who watched the Q & A section of his 10/18 (post-debate) Iowa Town meeting. Need further evidence? Check out the friendly comments section :).



Although this was a small gathering, the press was there in force, even CNN ;).

60phxwq.jpg
Click to expand...

His policy for a two state solution is identical to Hillary's. So......
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Bam Bam Baklava said:
Still don't get all this Nate hate. I think it stems to 2014 and people refusing to believe his numbers. Then him gloating about being right.
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Really shows that there aren't many diffferences between the extremes of the left and right. Both circle the wagons when they perceive an attack is coming, I remember back in 2014 when Daily Kos bloggers were questioning whether Nate's libertarian politics meant he was biased and thus wasn't trust worthy.

Things are gonna get ugly come August 2016 when Rubio is heavily favored in Nate's model and liberals start skewing polls ("if the black turnout is x and the Hispanic turnout is y, there's no way we lose!").
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Really shows that there aren't many diffferences between the extremes of the left and right. Both circle the wagons when they perceive an attack is coming, I remember back in 2014 when Daily Kos bloggers were questioning whether Nate's libertarian politics meant he was biased and thus wasn't trust worthy.

Things are gonna get ugly come August 2016 when Rubio is heavily favored in Nate's model and liberals start skewing polls ("if the black turnout is x and the Hispanic turnout is y, there's no way we lose!").
Click to expand...

You sure you will be back by that point?
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
pigeon said:
It is accelerationism in the left-wing sense, although back in the day we used to just call it hastening the glorious communist revolution. It's always been a popular idea among people who are 19.
Click to expand...

yeah, now that I'm actually reading, it's basically textbook left-accelerationism

(and just like back in the day, as you note, it's still an incredibly facile concept)
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
BreitFreedomCaucus.png
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This is looking beautiful.

At Least 75 Percent Opposed: Freedom Caucus Likely To Nix Paul Ryan’s Speakership Bid

The House Freedom Caucus is almost certainly going to organize against a nascent potential House Speakership bid from House Ways and Means Committee chairman Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) after he began “running his mouth” on Tuesday evening, several senior House GOP aides close to the process told Breitbart News.

Ryan’s office confirms to Breitbart News that he is unlikely to move forward with an effort to run for the Speakership if something doesn’t drastically change quickly.

“He had a shot before he started running his mouth,” one senior GOP aide to a senior House Freedom Caucus member said when reached by phone early Wednesday.

The aide said he expects that “at least 75 percent of the members are going to oppose Ryan” after what Ryan demanded from Republicans in Tuesday evening remarks and in written demands for a potential Speakership bid.

One of Ryan’s demands was a change to House rules that would significantly alter the ability for members to remove a Speaker using a “motion to vacate the chair.” That is the mechanism by which outgoing House Speaker Rep. John Boehner (R-OH) was pressed to resign by Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC) and it’s one of the key checks in government that Thomas Jefferson first crafted. Ryan’s office has scrambled to explain away the demand, and downplay the significance of it, to no avail thus far.

“It’s highly unlikely that Ryan would ever be able to get 218 votes on the floor of the House,” a senior House GOP aide to an influential lawmaker outside the House Freedom Caucus told Breitbart News.
Click to expand...
 
M

Makai

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Really shows that there aren't many diffferences between the extremes of the left and right. Both circle the wagons when they perceive an attack is coming, I remember back in 2014 when Daily Kos bloggers were questioning whether Nate's libertarian politics meant he was biased and thus wasn't trust worthy.

Things are gonna get ugly come August 2016 when Rubio is heavily favored in Nate's model and liberals start skewing polls ("if the black turnout is x and the Hispanic turnout is y, there's no way we lose!").
Click to expand...
Nate's not using a model yet. He's basically Chuck Todd.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Cheebo said:
People dismissed his model because he showed the Dems losing the senate. Even though it was pretty obvious the Dems stood no chance at holding the senate.
Click to expand...

This is bullshit. First off, most of us admitted there's was a more likely than not chance the GOP would win the Senate.

Second, and most importantly, Nate Silver gave the Dems a 40% chance or so of holding the Senate just days before the election. 45% chance in mid September.

Even on election night they had a 25% chance.

To say it was "obvious" they have no chance is incorrect. Not even Silver would agree.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Black Mamba said:
OH MY GOD OP ED BY HARRY REID TROLOLOLOLOLOLOL

http://time.com/4082339/harry-reid-why-i-support-paul-ryan/
http://time.com/4082339/harry-reid-why-i-support-paul-ryan/
http://time.com/4082339/harry-reid-why-i-support-paul-ryan/
http://time.com/4082339/harry-reid-why-i-support-paul-ryan/
http://time.com/4082339/harry-reid-why-i-support-paul-ryan/
http://time.com/4082339/harry-reid-why-i-support-paul-ryan/
http://time.com/4082339/harry-reid-why-i-support-paul-ryan/
Click to expand...

I LOVE THIS MAN AND WILL MISS HIM
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Robert Costa ‏@costareports 17s17 seconds ago
BREAKING: A "super majority" of Freedom Caucus is backing Ryan, per Labrador
Click to expand...
Newsflash, don't believe Breitbart.

God, you guys...


Robert Costa ‏@costareports 39s39 seconds ago
Labrador says this is NOT an endorsement, but they are issuing a stmt that a "super majority' of HFC behind Ryan
Click to expand...

Robert Costa ‏@costareports 15s15 seconds ago
"About two thirds" of HFC is backing Ryan per Labrador.
Click to expand...
 
M

Makai

Member
Cheebo said:
People dismissed his model because he showed the Dems losing the senate. Even though it was pretty obvious the Dems stood no chance at holding the senate.
Click to expand...
I remember. I wasn't a part of that group because I love statistical analysis - which is why I'm so annoyed with Nate. Most of his reasoning might as well came from the mouth of a "hedgehog" pundit, "No ________ has won since _________." Useless. Nate knows better than to peddle unscientific crap like that. His most damning proclamation was something like, "Early polls don't mean anything. I shouldn't even be covering Trump because he is a joke and his low favorability proves it." What do you know? Trump starkly improved his net favorability. In the Monmouth poll, Trump's net favorability is 20 points above Jeb's among Republicans. Nate's favorite to win has 0% favorability.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Makai said:
I remember. I wasn't a part of that group because I love statistical analysis - which is why I'm so annoyed with Nate. Most of his reasoning might as well came from the mouth of a "hedgehog" pundit, "No ________ has won since _________." Useless. Nate knows better than to peddle unscientific crap like that. His most damning proclamation was something like, "Early polls don't mean anything. I shouldn't even be covering Trump because he is a joke and his low favorability proves it." What do you know? Trump starkly improved his net favorability. In the Monmouth poll, Trump's net favorability is 20 points above Jeb's among Republicans. Nate's favorite to win has 0% favorability.
Click to expand...

Yep. Nate is completely off the reservation when it comes to Trump. it's absolutely inexplicable.
 
M

Makai

Member
Just to clarify, I don't think favorability is an important electoral predictor. I brought it up because Nate is clinging to it for his analysis. I don't understand why he keeps doubling down on his demonstrably incorrect narrative. At least the mainstream media flirts with the idea of, "were we wrong?"
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
Freedom caucus will support according to ap
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Lol this is killing my PredictIt account. I should've cashed in when uncertainty levels were at an all time high. I saw Ryan's stock crashing, saw that the AP put out a report saying the HFC would back Ryan, sold his 'Won't be Speaker' stock at a loss, bought 'Will be Speaker' stock, and now see that the HFC kinda is and kinda isn't supporting Ryan.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
I don't think it's inexplicable. I think the problem is more that he's trying to claim some authoritative data-driven process rather than simply stating a relatively subjective opinion.

I don't think Trump will be the Republican nominee either, despite his current polling data.

I think left-leaning people want him to be the nominee, because regardless of current polling data when it comes down to a head-to-head match-up at crunch time, I really can't see the US electorate forgoing a former First Lady, Senator and Secretary of State who looks and speaks like a President, with comparatively comprehensive policy platforms... for a real-estate tycoon who isn't even that good at being a tycoon and calls Mexicans rapists. I'll say it without much reservation, Hillary Clinton would trounce Donald Trump.

It would be monumentally foolish for the Republican electorate to make Trump their nominee from a rational standpoint.

But then, maybe they won't act rationally.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
shinra-bansho said:
I don't think it's inexplicable.

I don't think Trump will be the Republican nominee either, despite his current polling data.

I think left-leaning people want him to be the nominee, because regardless of current polling data when it comes down to a head-to-head match-up at crunch time, I really can't see the US electorate forgoing a former First Lady, Senator and Secretary of State who looks and speaks like a President, with comparatively comprehensive policy platforms... for a real-estate tycoon who isn't even that good at being a tycoon and calls Mexicans rapists. I'll say it without much reservation, Hillary Clinton would trounce Donald Trump.

It would be monumentally foolish for the Republican electorate to make Trump their nominee from a rational standpoint.

But then, maybe they won't act rationally.
Click to expand...

much? I'll say it without any reservation, Hillary Clinton would trounce Donald Trump.
 
G

Grexeno

Member
shinra-bansho said:
I don't think it's inexplicable.

I don't think Trump will be the Republican nominee either, despite his current polling data.

I think left-leaning people want him to be the nominee, because regardless of current polling data when it comes down to a head-to-head match-up at crunch time, I really can't see the US electorate forgoing a former First Lady, Senator and Secretary of State who looks and speaks like a President, with comparatively comprehensive policy platforms... for a real-estate tycoon who isn't even that good at being a tycoon and calls Mexicans rapists. I'll say it without much reservation, Hillary Clinton would trounce Donald Trump.

It would be monumentally foolish for the Republican electorate to make Trump their nominee from a rational standpoint.

But then, maybe they won't act rationally.
Click to expand...
Then again, an ill-timed terrorist attack or economic downturn and suddenly President Trump.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Can't believe we might be on the verge of Paul Ryan as speaker of the house. Ugh... I don't like that. I don't like that one bit.
 
M

Makai

Member
Anyone can win the general. There's plenty of time for recession in the next year. Anyway, Nate's analysis is that Trump can't win the primary.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
WASHINGTON — A strong majority of anti-establishment lawmakers in the House Freedom Caucus voted on Wednesday night to support Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin for House speaker, effectively delivering the Republican Party unity that he had sought as a condition for accepting the post.

While the vote fell short of the four-fifths majority required for the group’s official endorsement, lawmakers said it nonetheless cleared the way for Mr. Ryan, 45, to be selected as the Republican nominee next Wednesday and affirmed as speaker in a floor vote the next day.
Click to expand...
boom
 
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