Fenderputty
Banned
That thread is a disaster.
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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print
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That thread is a disaster.
Black Mamba
Member
The Dems need to push this as a response:
http://www.bostonherald.com/news_op...enghazi_casualties_call_anti_clinton_ad_cruel
Remember, the guy who made the commercial worked for Gowdy recently and Gowdy had to return donations as a result of it.
I think a link to that thread is what I'll use when someone argues that using the ignore list isn't the right thing to do.
eBay Huckster
Member
Coriolanus
Banned
I wish.
I mean, RuPaul supporters, at the end of the day still went and voted for the party, no?
I dunno, if I Ginger Minj didn't win, I really think Ru should have just crowned Shangela instead.
RustyNails
Member
Good lord...this Gowdy fuck is the biggest slimeball in Congress and that's fuckin something.
Black Mamba
Member
I'm more referencing the online passion coupled with the sudden train that will hit them after the vote is counted.
Ron Paul voters were convinced the night of the election they'd win. Every time.
Aaron Strife
Banned
No but Hillary will
Black Mamba
Member
It's always funny how these types of things end up being about 33% support that lined up perfectly with the number of GOP base voters.
It's like how every lame Scary Movie __ has the same $18 mil opening weekend because the same people pay to see those movies.
Here, the same GOP base voters always pick a certain side.
Nate's anti-establishment shtick staled when he became an establishment journalist.
Can't wait to see his self-reflecting article on how he blew the Trump story.
RustyNails
Member
LOL! called it the moment the news broke.
That'll never happen.
Nate's anti-establishment shtick staled when he became an establishment journalist.
I don't know who the other bidders (NYT had to be one of them, right?) were but going to ESPN still seems like such a terrible fit
He might not have a website if it came to that.
We are excited to announce 538's new home - Facebook!
bodyofanamerican
Member
Nate's anti-establishment shtick staled when he became an establishment journalist.
Congratulations, you played yourself.
Nate looks really rough in this video. Sick/hungover/insomnia.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-doomed-andor-invincible/
Also, lol at this exchange at 0:50
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-doomed-andor-invincible/
Also, lol at this exchange at 0:50
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Still don't get all this Nate hate. I think it stems to 2014 and people refusing to believe his numbers. Then him gloating about being right.
If the only source of suspense for that time period is the margin in the Senate, then I'd be more than okay with this.
Aaron Strife
Banned
The real question being, will Democrats hit sub-40? I can only pray they might.
I have thought the same thing.
The denial of his numbers in 2014 was embarrassing. No objective observer could honestly believe Dems would hold the Senate as we got closer to election day.
It was crazy and just a really embarrassing time all around. I really hope if things are starting to look bad Fall 2016 we don't see the same level of absurd denial.
I don't even know if I believe that FiveThirtyEight is in that much trouble. Traffic is way up from last year (when it was truly anemic), it'll only continue increasing as the cycle continues.
I'm just disappointed with how facile and, frankly, not particularly numbers-based, a lot of their politics stuff has been. But I blame that as much on Nate, the editor, as opposed to Nate, the writer, (plus ESPN), as it seems like 60-75% of all the politics coverage is written by Harry Enten and not Nate. At the end of the day, 538 is still Nate. Enten seems like a pretty standard, competent politics guy, but not the numbers wonk that Nate advertises himself as. it's still a nice looking site and some of the interactive stuff they've done, like the endorsement tracker, is intuitive and useful.
also, their new CARMELO model sucks. if he went to ESPN to get a chance to do more sports projection stuff like PETCOA, he's going to have to do a way better job than that... kind of a shockingly simplistic model to get in the game with this late
I'm just disappointed with how facile and, frankly, not particularly numbers-based, a lot of their politics stuff has been. But I blame that as much on Nate, the editor, as opposed to Nate, the writer, (plus ESPN), as it seems like 60-75% of all the politics coverage is written by Harry Enten and not Nate. At the end of the day, 538 is still Nate. Enten seems like a pretty standard, competent politics guy, but not the numbers wonk that Nate advertises himself as. it's still a nice looking site and some of the interactive stuff they've done, like the endorsement tracker, is intuitive and useful.
also, their new CARMELO model sucks. if he went to ESPN to get a chance to do more sports projection stuff like PETCOA, he's going to have to do a way better job than that... kind of a shockingly simplistic model to get in the game with this late
Biden not running was for the best. I will always love him, but after his recent statements, yeah... Not to mention he needs to take it easy too, for his own well-being.
Love it!
RustyNails
Member
Nate talking about Trump's personality and other nonsense as a predictor of nomination is simply him being another dumb media bobblehead. We liked Nate because of his strict, religious devotion to numbers and data. But him veering into punditry because there is not enough data is just disappointment. 2012 Nate would have simply said there is no historical data or a big enough trend for me to analyze, so I cant make any prediction. But right now, he's as reliable as punxatawney phil.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Clinton now a 86% favorite to win the nomination according to predictwise.
Armoured Priest
Member
Well they can always use the MREs for dinner dates: http://message.snopes.com/showthread.php?t=42740
I know the story is fake...its still funny though
On a more realistic note, I know MREs can last for a very long time. I don't know how long the modern MREs can hold up, but my dad would tell me about the equivalent MREs they would get while he was serving over in Vietnam. The US Military had packaged a bunch of extra for use in World War 2, and they were still using them up in the mid to late 60s...so at least 20 years. I'm told they were pretty unpalatable (and the cigarettes were so dried out, you got maybe 2 puffs out of them before they were gone.)
bodyofanamerican
Member
Woof, you weren't kidding. For a site bringing in next to no revenue, that set looks awfully expensive.
I was a big fan of his until a few months ago. I completely agree with his longstanding fox vs hedgehog metaphor - media predictions are regularly wrong because they are rooted in rhetoric instead of data. Media may even embrace data, but use them in inappropriate ways to support their claims. I was excited by the rollout of his website and its "foxy" content.
But he's thrown that all away to join the hedgehogs. He and his team continue to bungle this primary and he still acts as if his hand-waving is more credible than the mainstream media. In the same breath, he says "the polls don't mean much this early" and pretends some nonsense metric had any predictive power. Maybe he should wait until he can offer a prediction with confidence. I expect him to have excellent general election coverage.
The oldest MREs I've ever eaten were about 10 years old, on a camping trip. Naaaaasty.
Does Monmouth have a pretty accurate track record?
52% say Hillary used e-mails for convenience
33% say it was cause she had something to hide
59% say they're tired of hearing about e-mails
32% say the media should continue covering it
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32...1087/68753a3b-8cec-45f8-9bda-fda072e1853f.pdf
Oh and one other fun thing:
Jeb Bush:
27% favorable
47% unfavorable
LOL
52% say Hillary used e-mails for convenience
33% say it was cause she had something to hide
59% say they're tired of hearing about e-mails
32% say the media should continue covering it
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32...1087/68753a3b-8cec-45f8-9bda-fda072e1853f.pdf
Oh and one other fun thing:
Jeb Bush:
27% favorable
47% unfavorable
LOL
The sample feels a little whiter than usual, but otherwise it looks ok.
shinra-bansho
Member
No Diamond Joe.
I'm kind of curious at what point he came to this decision considering he spent the last few days taking veiled shots at Clinton.
I wonder how long it will take for those who were holding out on endorsing her and donating to her campaign to come into the fold now.
I'm kind of curious at what point he came to this decision considering he spent the last few days taking veiled shots at Clinton.
I wonder how long it will take for those who were holding out on endorsing her and donating to her campaign to come into the fold now.
quick.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Link? And are you talking about the same thing this is
http://www.theawl.com/2015/09/good-luck-to-human-kind
This is a really good read on nick land and how he ties in with the right, PUA, Trump, 4chan, etc
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Yeah all we have to do is give Republicans full reins for a couple of years, and then everyone will realize how great the Democrats are! How could this possibly lead to disappointment among hard liberals
My understanding is its not really tied to politics as much as economics and technology. Its kinda weird "humanitiy is vile" stuff. Read the link I posted above. Is some scary stuff.
It mostly comes from disaffected men. Its a type of facism which seeks to undermind the ability of humanity to make decisions and instead have decisions done to us
Are they only on TV? I haven't seen so much as a yard sign anywhere. I drove up to Chapel Hill for the weekend and they were everywhere.
i actually work at the company that does the surveys for Monmouth (and many other national polls), I can confirm they are at least more accurate than Fox News's polls.
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