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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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H

HylianTom

Banned
Maledict said:
(It's really interesting the level to which Obama's staff and support networks shifted over to her. Practically unthinkable to those of us who were around in 2008, but it's been clear for some time she has Obama's blessing. They have really, really worked at this).
Click to expand...

Hillary inheriting Obama's machinery and staff has really been one of my biggest moments of relief/confidence all year (right after McCarthy's Blunder, the Debate Debut, and the Benghazi Gauntlet). When the stories starting coming in during the Spring and Summer, I was pretty jubilant. The operation is only going to be better than 2012's, and it's looking more likely that the GOP candidate will be lucky to get anything near what the Dems did four years ago. They haven't learned.

And to be honest, the GOP doesn't benefit as much from a GOTV operation. Democratic voters, geographically speaking, are clustered in cities and walkable areas. It's easier to go door-to-door when the average distance between doors is measured in feet instead of miles.
..

And Al Gore's bulge - it's like one of those Jesus painting where the eyes follow you.. Tipper could've chipped a tooth on that thing!

..

And speaking of the Benghazi hearing:

@SteveKornacki:
Pre-hearing, 84% of Americans said in NBC/WSJ poll that they weren't satisfied with Hillary's Benghazi response. Post-hearing it's 40%.

(He then corrected his post and said at these stats are for "swing voters" only. That hearing has done wonders for her.)
 
U

User 406

Banned
HylianTom said:
Hillary inheriting Obama's machinery and staff has really been one of my biggest moments of relief/confidence all year (right after McCarthy's Blunder, the Debate Debut, and the Benghazi Gauntlet). When the stories starting coming in during the Spring and Summer, I was pretty jubilant. The operation is only going to be better than 2012's, and it's looking more likely that the GOP candidate will be lucky to get anything near what the Dems did four years ago. They haven't learned.
Click to expand...

I feel much the same, but I think there's one last potential hurdle that worries me, and that is her campaign at some point doing something horribly stupid and worse than tone-deaf regarding Black Lives Matter. The Democratic establishment needs to take a serious look at their reflexive tendency to cater to the colorblind segment of the party, and weigh that against the eventual possibility of losing the kinds of margins they traditionally get from black voters.

Sometimes I wonder if Hillary would be the best candidate to go ahead and lay down a solid plank directed towards helping minorities, full stop. Being the first woman with a real shot should drive up her margins among women, and could offset any potential loss in white men not comfortable with acknowledging there is a problem.

But the important thing is that she not fuck up with BLM. We're going from the first black President back to a white person, and now would be the worst possible time to demonstrate to black voters that nothing more than lip service will continue.


And Al Gore's bulge - it's like one of those Jesus painting where the eyes follow you.. Tipper could've chipped a tooth on that thing!
Click to expand...

MANBEARPIG IS COMING FROM INSIDE THE PANTS
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Sea Manky said:
I feel much the same, but I think there's one last potential hurdle that worries me, and that is her campaign at some point doing something horribly stupid and worse than tone-deaf regarding Black Lives Matter. The Democratic establishment needs to take a serious look at their reflexive tendency to cater to the colorblind segment of the party, and weigh that against the eventual possibility of losing the kinds of margins they traditionally get from black voters.

Sometimes I wonder if Hillary would be the best candidate to go ahead and lay down a solid plank directed towards helping minorities, full stop. Being the first woman with a real shot should drive up her margins among women, and could offset any potential loss in white men not comfortable with acknowledging there is a problem.

But the important thing is that she not fuck up with BLM. We're going from the first black President back to a white person, and now would be the worst possible time to demonstrate to black voters that nothing more than lip service will continue.
Click to expand...

On that realm of issues, I'd love to see her do a summit or conference with some of the movement leaders. Not just a quick photo op - a day or two where they can hammer-out concrete legislative proposals, executive order possibilities, discussions of key appointments, and enforcement priorities for certain agencies, etc etc. She's a policy wonk at heart, and I think that the movement leaders understand this. If she wins them over and they emerge from the process convinced that she has their interests at heart, that'd go a long way in convincing a large portion of the movement.
 
U

User 406

Banned
HylianTom said:
On that realm of issues, I'd love to see her do a summit or conference with some of the movement leaders. Not just a quick photo op - a day or two where they can hammer-out concrete legislative proposals, executive order possibilities, discussions of key appointments, and enforcement priorities for certain agencies, etc etc. She's a policy wonk at heart, and I think that the movement leaders understand this. If she wins them over and they emerge from the process convinced that she has their interests at heart, that'd go a long way in convincing a large portion of the movement.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that would be ideal, I just worry that she's sticking to the colorblind game too much, and that if she can't reconcile with the movement soon enough, eventually some point of friction will blow up between the protests and her campaign, or god forbid, her audience, and turn everything to shit.

Otherwise she's been doing amazingly well.
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
HylianTom said:
That hearing has done wonders for her.
Click to expand...

Ryan should push to dissolve the Benghazi Select Committee. What good can come out of it for the GOP at this point? The only beneficial thing that came out was the revelation of Clinton's email server, which is quickly turning into a nothingburger.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Trump attacked Carson this morning on ABC, saying he has neither the temperament or experience to be president.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Trump also attacking the Koch brothers on Twitter, saying that they're looking for new "puppets" after Walker and Jeb failed. He says they're going after a new failure--Rubio.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
Man, I'm still registered at my parents' house (because I'm super lazy and never changed it) so now I have to decide whether I should travel 2 hours to vote and then two hours back. Unless I'm reading this wrong and I can vote here, even though it says my polling place is near them. I'm in Virginia, if that makes a difference.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
CNN playing bubu both sides game, saying Hillary, Obama and Edwards skipped Fox News debate citing bias...I dont remember this happening?
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Good summary of the returns coming tonight:
F8E3B011-AFCC-42D1-B97F-5DAACD413A46.png
 
T

teiresias

Member
I'm in VA, but not in any of the contested districts and my ballot is nothing but a bunch of uncontested races, so I'm not sure about the point of even going today.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
teiresias said:
I'm in VA, but not in any of the contested districts and my ballot is nothing but a bunch of uncontested races, so I'm not sure about the point of even going today.
Click to expand...

Yeah, same here. If it were for a close race, I might make the hike, but it would be hours out of my day to go vote and I don't think I'd make a difference. But at the same time, I'm always bugging people about voting, so I guess it makes me a hypocrite now.

second edit: nevermind. maybe I'm all confused. Ignore me.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
RustyNails said:
CNN playing bubu both sides game, saying Hillary, Obama and Edwards skipped Fox News debate citing bias...I dont remember this happening?
Click to expand...

It wasn't a DNC-sanctioned debate.

Basically, for much the same reason that the RNC set up a debate with Telemundo, the DNC set up some debates with Fox. They got criticized by activists and shut them all down. Fox went ahead and threatened to hold the debate anyway, but since the DNC had taken it off the list, all the Democratic candidates refused to go.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
And Trump continues his attack on Rubio - going right at the heart of his weakness.
01FE80D4-DCC3-4E95-851B-9B764E53EA0F.png.jpeg
Click to expand...


Here's the article Trump is citing:
MARCO RUBIO TO JORGE RAMOS: I WILL KEEP OBAMA’S FIRST EXECUTIVE AMNESTY IN PLACE UNTIL LEGISLATIVE AMNESTY ENACTED

In a little-noticed interview earlier this year with Univision’s Jorge Ramos, Sen. Marco Rubio declared that, as President, he would keep Barack Obama’s executive amnesty for DREAMers in place until it was permanently codified through legislation.

Rubio said, in part:
"DACA…applies to young people that arrived in this country at a very young age before they were adults and I don’t think we can immediately revoke that… I’m not calling for it to be revoked tomorrow, or this week, or right away."

“I think it will have to end at some point and I hope it will end because of some reform to the immigration laws,” Rubio said in English.

So Rubio is pledging to carry Obama’s policy: leaving the executive amnesty for DREAMers in place until Congress submits to the order by legislatively ratifying amnesty. After a legislatively ratified DREAM Act, illegal aliens would be able to vote in U.S. elections and bring their relatives to work and collect entitlements in the United States.
Click to expand...

If Trump wants to win a one-on-one ballot fight between just him and Rubio (even if such a thing is improbable early-on in the process), he needs to start hacking-away at Rubio's intraparty favorables.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
The problem with Trump constantly attacking is that it makes Carson look better by being nice. Trump continually picks apart opponents while Carson and his "Gee golly, guys!" attitude appeals more to average voter.
 
U

User 406

Banned
Plinko said:
The problem with Trump constantly attacking is that it makes Carson look better by being nice. Trump continually picks apart opponents while Carson and his "Gee golly, guys!" attitude appeals more to average voter.
Click to expand...

But considering Carson's background as a troubled kid, imagine what would happen if he lost his cool. :X

I gotta admit, I want to see what angry Ben Carson looks like.
 
F

Farmboy

Member
Plinko said:
The problem with Trump constantly attacking is that it makes Carson look better by being nice. Trump continually picks apart opponents while Carson and his "Gee golly, guys!" attitude appeals more to average voter.
Click to expand...

I get the feeling Trump has identified Carson as a non-threat, someone who will implode or simply fizzle. I mean, that's what I expect to happen.

Of course, I never expected Carson or Trump to do this well in the first place, so I could be wrong again.
 
O

Owzers

Member
Carly Fiorina's whole campaign is centered around passionately lying at debates and being offended at people's attacks on her looks.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Plinko said:
The problem with Trump constantly attacking is that it makes Carson look better by being nice. Trump continually picks apart opponents while Carson and his "Gee golly, guys!" attitude appeals more to average voter.
Click to expand...

Trump and Carson both seem like red meat for the general giving out daily quotes you can turn into attack ads, but I have no idea how a republican should attack either of them.

It's hard to find weaknesses when you can't even figure out why they're sitting on top in the first place.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Trump is calling for <1% to quit: Pataki, Graham, Jindal and Gilmore so that he gets more speaking time.

He's right. Get rid of these bums, and throw everyone under 5% into the undercard debate. That way we'll have a better debate.
 
Q

QuiteWhittle

Member
Another poll shows John Bel Edwards with double-digit lead over David Vitter in Louisiana governor&#8217;s race

The latest poll, conducted by Market Research Insight, found that if African-American voter turnout is at 25 percent in the runoff, Edwards leads Vitter 54 percent to 38 percent &#8212; a 16-point lead. If the black vote drops to 20 percent, then Edwards still leads by 11 points, 51 percent to Vitter&#8217;s 40 percent.
Click to expand...

No way Vitter catches up in three weeks.

Edit: Black turnout in the primary was 28% and black turnout in 2014 increased from 28.8% to 30.3% in the run-off.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
The Washington Monthly had a pretty funny analysis of Ben Carson's debate expectations.

Carson would like:
* All fourteen candidates included in the debate.
* Five minute opening statements for each candidate.
* Five minute closing statements for each candidate.

But Carson has also previously demanded that debates not be longer than two hours -- that is, 120 minutes.

So....
 
M

Makai

Member
pigeon said:
The Washington Monthly had a pretty funny analysis of Ben Carson's debate expectations.

Carson would like:
* All fourteen candidates included in the debate.
* Five minute opening statements for each candidate.
* Five minute closing statements for each candidate.

But Carson has also previously demanded that debates not be longer than two hours -- that is, 120 minutes.

So....
Click to expand...
Haha. CNBC was right, "Ben, can you do math?"
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
pigeon said:
The Washington Monthly had a pretty funny analysis of Ben Carson's debate expectations.

Carson would like:
* All fourteen candidates included in the debate.
* Five minute opening statements for each candidate.
* Five minute closing statements for each candidate.

But Carson has also previously demanded that debates not be longer than two hours -- that is, 120 minutes.

So....
Click to expand...

Did he never learn to add?
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Did anyone post Monmouth's new Dem poll of NH?

In August, it was a 7 point Sander's lead. Today it's a 3 point Clinton lead.

Hillary 48% and Bernie 45%

Interesting:

Clinton has also taken a sizable
57% - 35% lead among registered Democrats, a group that will make up the bulk of February’s primary
electorate. She and Sanders were tied 46% - 46% among this group in September.
Click to expand...

If the state weren't an open primary, I doubt Sanders would be at all competitive.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
QuiteWhittle said:
Another poll shows John Bel Edwards with double-digit lead over David Vitter in Louisiana governor’s race

No way Vitter catches up in three weeks.

Edit: Black turnout in the primary was 28% and black turnout in 2014 increased from 28.8% to 30.3% in the run-off.
Click to expand...
Yup. This isn't a fluke. This is going to happen. Jindal and Vitter have become poisonous to their party here, to the point where Vitter's bullets are bouncing off of Edwards' chest. No amount of Hortonesque advertising is going to save him.

I've seen Edwards compared to Obama, to ISIS, to terrorists.. I'm wondering what else Vitter has at this point. He's emptied his clip already.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
pigeon said:
The Washington Monthly had a pretty funny analysis of Ben Carson's debate expectations.

Carson would like:
* All fourteen candidates included in the debate.
* Five minute opening statements for each candidate.
* Five minute closing statements for each candidate.

But Carson has also previously demanded that debates not be longer than two hours -- that is, 120 minutes.

So....
Click to expand...

Hahaha, do you have a link to this? I'd love to show some people.
 
T

thefro

Member
HylianTom said:
Yup. This isn't a fluke. This is going to happen. Jindal and Vitter have become poisonous to their party here, to the point where Vitter's bullets are bouncing off of Edwards' chest. No amount of Hortonesque advertising is going to save him.

I've seen Edwards compared to Obama, to ISIS, to terrorists.. I'm wondering what else Vitter has at this point. He's emptied his clip already.
Click to expand...

I like how Edwards can destroy Vitter in an ad and make it seem like a positive ad.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
My 18 year old nephew called a bit ago and asked me to go with him to vote for the first time. He asked me who he should vote for. I was diplomatic, and told him whomever he thinks is best. He responded "Ya but if I vote for a Republican, you'll kill me."

Smart kid. Very smart kid.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
thefro said:
I like how Edwards can destroy Vitter in an ad and make it seem like a positive ad.
Click to expand...
My favorite variation of the West Point line that Edwards is using:
"Vitter wouldn't last 5 minutes at West Point; Edwards wouldn't last 5 minutes with one of Vitter's prostitutes."&#128514;
 
R

RustyNails

Member
adam387 said:
My 18 year old nephew called a bit ago and asked me to go with him to vote for the first time. He asked me who he should vote for. I was diplomatic, and told him whomever he thinks is best. He responded "Ya but if I vote for a Republican, you'll kill me."

Smart kid. Very smart kid.
Click to expand...
Good lad. Did he get a copy of the manifesto yet?
 
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