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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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C

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
I think Carson has to be done. The media feeding frenzy has begun and I don't think his supporters are dedicated or enthusiastic enough for none of this stuff to stick to him.
 
S

Sianos

Member
Today on the way to class, I encountered a grassroots volunteer who wanted to give me some pamphlets on the "evils of big government". By the end of our conversation, I convinced them to support universal health care. I just avoided the trigger words, criticized Obamacare (for not being universal healthcare), and brought in some therapy knowledge: they were convinced, or at least said they were. It really does feel like once you taboo the partisan trigger words it's pretty easy to sell people on "liberal" ideas they would oppose on that principle alone. And it's always nice to have civil conversations with opposing viewpoints.

I would have went to the psychological merits of welfare next, but I didn't want to be too late. Amusingly, my professor was totally fine with my "excuse" for why I was late to his quiz.

I think there will be a paradigm shift in the coming decades - perhaps the rising pressure on the white middle class family structure combined with the implosion of the current GOP will "standardize" some current "liberal" philosophies.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Effect said:
Question. Are people still trying to compare Clinton vs Sanders to Clinton vs Obama?

Cause there was one key thing people didn't seem to be talking about in those comparisons. That was that leading up to the primaries neither one had over 50% in a polls. It was always 40 to 20 or something like that. There were a lot of people simply undecided. So when one primary swung one way and the other another way it made sense. That clearly isn't the case her and the other poll I thin kit was last week had Clinton in the 60s against Sanders. So was just curious if that had been factored in the discussions or if that was being ignored.
Click to expand...

CNN/ORC from Nov 4th 2007 was Hillary Clinton 44%, Barack Obama 25%, John Edwards 14%, Bill Richardson 4%, Joe Biden 3%, Chris Dodd 2%, Dennis Kucinich 2%, Mike Gravel 1%. Polling average for Nov 4th 2015 is Hillary Clinton 55%, Bernie Sanders, 33%, O'Malley 2%. The number of undecideds, as you can see, is about the same (both within the MoE of 8%). The main difference is that there were just more candidates last time around which stopped Hillary consolidating above the 50% margin. Back when Biden hadn't officially dropped out, the 2015 numbers were surprisingly similar to the 2007 ones. Biden dropping out was the game-changer for Sanders, his best shot was always hoping the Democrat right and moderates remained split between two candidates and that's now gone. Nevertheless, Obama was behind in Iowa polling even on the day of the Iowa caucus, but won because the caucus system tends to candidates with enthusiast/high engagement bases. That's Sanders' position this time.

I'm relatively confident Sanders will take Iowa and New Hampshire, and has an outside shot at Nevada. Unfortunately, Super Tuesday will finish him, but the main campaign goal of demonstrating the relative strength of the Democratic left and forcing issues like socioeconomic equality and finance reform more strongly onto the table will be almost assured.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
AndyD said:
There will be a fanatical base that will stick with him no matter what. But as to mainstream voters, the right framing of his lies will put everything he says into doubt and scrutiny.

I hope this spurs the media to start actually scrutinizing claims from all of them, not just report their statements.
Click to expand...

"You mean the LIBERAL MEDIA that does nothing to Obama but attacks all conservatives?" -- Average Joe Republican
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Drakeon said:
Its so hard to tell what will actually hurt him. I have a feeling this might, voters don't like liars.
Click to expand...
He is buttressing ANY past inconsistencies with liberal media witch hunt canard. That's his gameplan. The question is, will it matter? What will it take for the liberal media shield to melt?
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Your average GOP voter will accept lies about stabbing someone. They'll accept lies about going after your mom with a hammer. They'll accept a tithe based tax system. They'll accept a disappearing secretary. They don't care if you have no idea what wet foot/dry foot means. They don't mind as long as you love Jesus.

But you lie about the military, Jesus's own hand picked culture warriors and freedom bringers, and they will gut you like a fish.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
I think it says something about where my mind is politically that when I saw "West point" my first thought was "Jesus Christ Edwards why did you lie about that"

But it's a Republican so lol
 
R

Retromelon

Member
Makai said:
#TeamDone vs #TeamSurvives #TeamThrives

Pick a side.
Click to expand...
Team thrives. Not a solitary one of his supporters will give a shit about this. If ever asked at a debate about this, (suspect in itself because they want sympathetic questions now) Carson will summon the five pieces of exodia to obliterate the impertinant moderator's life points.*
Shocked to this day that a candidate insinuated a cable news anchor was on her period and got away with it. As late as 2008 that would have sunk any campaign. Lee atwater would be lost today in our grimy new world.

*in a republican debate this means saying the words liberal media
 
M

Mike M

Nick N
I tend to think Carson is either done, or the ensuing dogpile will finish him off.

But Idunno, man, by all rights he should have been finished long ago. I'd only be halfway surprised if this didn't affect/boosted his polling numbers.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
Man Trump was all buddy buddy with Carson until today. Fascinating how fast he'll turn on someone when it benefits him.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Retromelon said:
Team thrives. Not a solitary one of his supporters will give a shit about this. If ever asked at a debate about this, (suspect in itself because they want sympathetic questions now) Carson will summon the five pieces of exodia to obliterate the impertinant moderator's life points.*
Shocked to this day that a candidate insinuated a cable news anchor was on her period and got away with it. As late as 2008 that would have sunk any campaign. Lee atwater would be lost today in our grimy new world.

*in a republican debate this means saying the words liberal media
Click to expand...

His support in the polls has been broader than just hardcore supporters that won't care about this. A lot of that 24%+ are probably people that know little about him beyond liking how nice and soft spoken he is. Tarnishing him as a liar will deal damage.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Retromelon said:
Could the same not be said for trump? I don't buy it. We'll see
Click to expand...

Everyone knows Trump is full of shit, if you don't know anything about Trump you've been in a coma. Dude's been everywhere since announcing. Carson's been more of an unknown until now, the dynamics are totally different.
 
M

Makai

Member
Retromelon said:
Team thrives. Not a solitary one of his supporters will give a shit about this. If ever asked at a debate about this, (suspect in itself because they want sympathetic questions now) Carson will summon the five pieces of exodia to obliterate the impertinant moderator's life points.*
Shocked to this day that a candidate insinuated a cable news anchor was on her period and got away with it. As late as 2008 that would have sunk any campaign. Lee atwater would be lost today in our grimy new world.

*in a republican debate this means saying the words liberal media
Click to expand...
The next debate is hosted by Fox Business. The moderators know he has Exodia in his hand.

300
 
S

Slacker

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
This is kind of creepy as fuck...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ing-to-ben-carson/?postshare=6601446779158107
Click to expand...

Someone said it before, and I'll say it again. This guy will single handedly destroy the phrase "it's not brain surgery" forever in this country, because we all now think brain surgery must be the easiest thing in the world. How could an adult with a functioning adult brain think this story makes him look good? Let's see his options here:

1. Offer help. Sounds hard, skip.
2. Be a man and do what needs to be done, even if it's hard. Uh, no.
3. Do nothing and hope the problem literally disappears. Bingo!

Exactly what we're all looking for in a president. "Mr. President, Putin is on the phone and is threatening to blow up Sarah Palin's house in Alaska." "Uh, tell him I'm not here please."
 
E

Ecotic

Member
Retromelon said:
Could the same not be said for trump? (His broad support that weathers every controversy) I don't buy it. We'll see
Click to expand...

What's really great about Trump's appeal is the only thing that needs to be true about Trump is "Is he wealthy?".

As long as that's true any lies, hypocrisies, bankruptcies, bought politicians, divorces, misogyny, etc. can be explained away as being how competent people achieve wealth, fame, and fortune.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Retromelon said:
Could the same not be said for trump? (His broad support that weathers every controversy) I don't buy it. We'll see
Click to expand...
Trump's past has no skeletons. Dude has been in the spotlight since the 80s. His *controversies* are stupid highschool grade taunts which blow over in a few days. Carson's past is only now being unearthed and by all standards it's more of a mass grave than a few skeletons. He has no strategy or plan to answer the questions other than raise the librul media flame shield. Trump is also...smart in business sense. I feel dirty for saying it. He can think on the spot and also be convincing. His tough talk on China and Mexico, and the need for being a highly caffeineted shark as opposed to sloth bear slow Jeb is a very smart political play that is reaping benefits. Despite what people say, the guy has laid out plans for economy, taxes and trade, and can back it up on the spot without crying about questions.

Trump is also media savvy. Answers questions, is also funny. He will be on SNL tomorrow. Ben Carson is melting. He will play the media card only for so long. You cannot have the entire nation's press united against you and your antics.
 
Y

Yellowtail

Member
Hillary's safe. Clinton's emails did not contain highly classified secrets, inquiry finds.

The U.S. intelligence community has retreated from claims that two emails in Hillary Clinton’s private account contained top secret information, a source familiar with the situation told POLITICO.

The determination came from Director of National Intelligence James Clapper’s office and concluded that the two emails did not include highly classified intelligence secrets. Concerns about the emails' classification helped trigger an on-going FBI inquiry into Clinton's private email set-up.

Intelligence Community Inspector General I. Charles McCullough III made the claim that two of the emails contained top secret information, the State Department publicly stated its disagreement and asked Clapper’s office to referee the dispute. Now, that disagreement has been resolved in State’s favor, said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Intelligence officials claimed one email in Clinton’s account was classified because it contained information from a top secret intelligence community “product” or report, but a further review determined that the report was not issued until several days after the email in question was written, the source said.
"The initial determination was based on a flawed process," the source said. "There was an intelligence product people thought [one of the emails] was based on, but that actually postdated the email in question."

A top expert in classification procedures called the development " an astonishing turn of events."
Click to expand...
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/hillary-clinton-email-no-highly-classified-215599
 
M

Makai

Member
RustyNails said:
Trump's past has no skeletons. Dude has been in the spotlight since the 80s. His *controversies* are stupid highschool grade taunts which blow over in a few days..
Click to expand...
“I have black guys counting my money. … I hate it. The only guys I want counting my money are short guys that wear yarmulkes all day.” (USA Today, May 20, 1991)
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Copy of my post from the UE thread. Very unusual that liberals continue to downplay the track record of their own President. Can you imagine the responses if Trump was in office right now and these numbers came out? It would be held up as gospel.

Bam Bam Baklava said:
Wage growth 2.5%
Every measure of UE declines including headline number
270k in October alone

People still complain and nitpick. Let me blow your minds for a second here, BEFORE the recession there were countless economists that had done analysis on the labor force participation and all agreed it would go down by this amount in a normal economy. Here's a graph of the projection in a 2006 Brookings paper.

xQumGuP.png

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/projects/bpea/spring-2006/2006a_bpea_aaronson.pdf

Stop letting the bullshit narratives fool you and just look at the basic facts. This was going to happen no matter what and everyone said it would a decade ago, before any great recession.
Click to expand...

QuiteWhittle said:
The FBI is still investigating right? Can't wait until they completely call that off.
Click to expand...

FBI is investing the security setup of the server itself. Not what she did or did not on it.
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
I know the missing secretary is weird and creepy, but my takeaway from that story was:

Carson couldn't bring himself to fire an incompetent employee.

How could this guy be President?
 
S

sangreal

Member
Makai said:
“I have black guys counting my money. … I hate it. The only guys I want counting my money are short guys that wear yarmulkes all day.” (USA Today, May 20, 1991)
Click to expand...

That's a 2nd hand quote from a disgruntled former employee. It hardly rises to the level of a skeleton
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Ignatz Mouse said:
I know the missing secretary is weird and creepy, but my takeaway from that story was:

Carson couldn't bring himself to fire an incompetent employee.

How could this guy be President?
Click to expand...
This right after a post that shows James Clapper is still employed, let alone not in jail?

*list of other names from last two administrations*
*list of years Janet Reno was AG*
 
B

Bowdz

Member
QuiteWhittle said:
The FBI is still investigating right? Can't wait until they completely call that off.
Click to expand...

I hope the FBI finishes their investigation and clears Hillary of any wrongdoing so that this doesn't become a new conspiracy in the national GOP circle. Being able to point to the DNI, DoS and hopefully FBI and Justice Department clearing her of all wrongdoing should hopefully be enough to blunt any initial damage done by this story in the general.
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
benjipwns said:
This right after a post that shows James Clapper is still employed, let alone not in jail?

*list of other names from last two administrations*
*list of years Janet Reno was AG*
Click to expand...

I'm talking about people who are elected, not appointed. But please, keep trying to divert things to your pet causes.

Back on point, if they guy can't bring himself to fire a secretary*, how is he going to make actually difficult decisions?

* And if he cared about it messing her up, he could also have arranged for help.
 
M

Makai

Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
Copy of my post from the UE thread. Very unusual that liberals continue to downplay the track record of their own President. Can you imagine the responses if Trump was in office right now and these numbers came out? It would be held up as gospel.
Click to expand...
My favorite is, "you gotta look at the real unemployment rate." This intrigued me when I first heard it years ago but was disappointed that "real unemployment" had the same slope as the official rate. I think people forget that they have to use the same metric for the entire time range. You can't use a new metric for present day and an old metric for the past in the same analysis.
 
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