brainchild
Banned
"I'll give you $1000 dollars if you vote for me"
As illegal as that would be, that would do it!
"I'll give you $1000 dollars if you vote for me"
The differential between the Midterms/Presidential hasn't been within 5% since the 1800s.
Wait, wait, I got it.The chances of voters returning to vote in two-years are the same as a meteor striking Earth? I really don't think so.
Unfortunately, we have no hard data or scientific polling to make a fair assessment anyway, so the comparison is ridiculous.
Wait, wait, I got it.
Obama voters 2012: 66 million
Deaths in two years since 2012: 5 million
No idea how many of those voted for Obama, but we're just making up numbers so why not - half of the deaths were Obama voters. 4% of 2012 voters were dead. 96% < 98%
GAME OVER
Don't worry, once Bernie gets his supermajority in 2016, he'll pass compulsory voting laws that will fix everything.
I've just assumed Daniel is our anonymous confessor.
All joking aside, we need to get with the Australian times and make voting mandatory.
Everyone will just vote for the guys who want to get rid of that law. You'd see more success making election day a national holiday and giving everyone the day off.
Don't tell me what to do. That's un-American.All joking aside, we need to get with the Australian times and make voting mandatory.
We already have roaring growth. We are the envy of the developed worldDaniel B·;184738730 said:So, now we're back in reality, does my supposition have some merit, that Bernie's programs would inevitably lead to significant U.S economic growth, or as Brainchild once put it, no, that's pure "bullshit". Perhaps somone who knows their U.S. history, could indicate whether the original interstate highway program stimulated the economy.
It's not fair to compare them like this. The editorial staff might have just picked more of Ted's lies to evaluate than it did for Jeb.Hmm, I forgot that Cruz's Politifact file is Ben Carson/Donald Trump bad:
http://www.politifact.com/personalities/ted-cruz/
We already have roaring growth. We are the envy of the developed world
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth
Unemployment is now low enough that further decreases could lead to inflation. A jobs program is not what we need now. A better policy would target inequality.
Babby's first election.Are you trolling? I'm being 100% serious, because if not.........ho-ly shit
Are you sure your name isn't actually spelled Даниил Б, comrade?Daniel B·;184740674 said:Yeah, but, how many of those jobs are minimum wage, with some being filled by over qualified workers, who could perhaps get a job as a result of one of Bernie's programs, that allows them to use their full experience.
Kander could surprise if the mood is good. Missouri has a weirdly good Dem bench.
All joking aside, we need to get with the Australian times and make voting mandatory.
Are you sure your name isn't actually spelled Даниил Б, comrade?
Everyone will just vote for the guys who want to get rid of that law. You'd see more success making election day a national holiday and giving everyone the day off.
Make election day a federal holiday, simplify voter registration so that normal government IDs can be used for it (ie drivers licenses), make early voting periods mandatory, and etc. There are a ton of things that could be done to make voting more convenient, it's just that most of it is in the hands of the states.
Don't tell me what to do. That's un-American.
Daniel B·;184742438 said:If you had the choice between, flipping burgers, or helping to address the chronic state of the nation's infrastructure, which would you choose, especially if you had a relevant qualification?
If you add a guaranteed living wage, even having to work in the cold winter months, I think you have your answer .
We already have roaring growth. We are the envy of the developed world
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth
Unemployment is now low enough that further decreases could lead to inflation. A jobs program is not what we need now. A better policy would target inequality.
I mean that's part of the point though.
The less educated are more likely to be lower income. They're also more likely to be socially conservative.
And the Democratic Party is too trans-, gay-, women-, racial minority- friendly for the socially conservative poor to vote for, even if they do see the potential economic benefit. So they'll vote in favor of minimum wage referendums, but install a Republican in the Governor's mansion.
In 2008, based on the survey linked in that article, 27% of people with only some high school education think a women's place is in the home. 11% of the lowest percentile income.
That the Republican Party is able to make it into a racial issue in itself kind of speaks to the social conservatism of this electorate.
Ironically, the biggest strategic problem with new democrats is that they're too liberal socially. They all think if democrats were a little more like reagan economically, they'd win more elections, but questioning pro-choice is completely out of the question.
If you want to compromise your values to win a state like Kansas, it's pretty freaking obvious that compromising on financial issues isn't going to do it. Seems like there might be a better coalition of socially conservative but fiscally liberal voters, and get the votes of the types of people you're talking about.
Now, is it worth giving up your social values to push your economic values in states where you know the alternative is going to be just as bad socially and way worse economically? Maybe not, but if the answer is no, than we should probably stop making fun of kansas voters for making the clear wrong choice economically.
Either way, I'm still fed up with third way Democrats. They're only useful if they win elections Democrats would otherwise lose, and they're not doing that anymore.
like Edwards?
He's Pro-Life and Pro-Gun.I guess so.
I haven't payed close enough attention to see if he's trying to position Vitters to the left on family issues or if he's just running the standard campaign of being the governing democrat against a flawed republican.
I guess so.
I haven't payed close enough attention to see if he's trying to position Vitters to the left on family issues or if he's just running the standard campaign of being the governing democrat against a flawed republican.
I hope Hillary competes there and Georgia. After coming close in both states (Missouri was a nail biter and most pundits considered it more likely to go Obama than NC or Indiana) it was a shame that OFA pulled out of both of them in 2012. I mean ultimately it didn't matter since McCaskill still won without much help from the top of the ticket but if Democrats have a chance to take down Blunt they should pounce on that.Kander could surprise if the mood is good. Missouri has a weirdly good Dem bench.
Also, Ross is going to be a good candidate. Watch.
I hope Hillary competes there and Georgia. After coming close in both states (Missouri was a nail biter and most pundits considered it more likely to go Obama than NC or Indiana) it was a shame that OFA pulled out of both of them in 2012. I mean ultimately it didn't matter since McCaskill still won without much help from the top of the ticket but if Democrats have a chance to take down Blunt they should pounce on that.
In many states where Obama didn't bother competing in 2012, Romney didn't do much better than McCain. Romney gained less than 40,000 more votes over McCain 08 - Obama lost over 200,000 in the four years. His drop off is almost entirely due to voter disinterest. Georgia is quite similar.
In a Hillary vs. Trump scenario, assuming everything is the same as it is now (as in relatively good economy and Obama breaking even on approval) I think she'd win every state Obama won in 08 as well as North Carolina, Indiana, Arizona, Georgia and Missouri. And Nebraska's 2nd congressional district. 10 seat gain in the Senate (WI/IL/PA/FL/OH/NH/NC/AZ/IN/MO, no losses), 25 in the House.If Trump is the nominee I think Hillary will be competing on a very broad map. Arizona will probably be in play.
No it didn't!idk, that totally sounded like Retromelon, I think we have a true believer here
Trump as the nominee would be such a disaster for them that Democrats would have to overperform.I dunno if I'd be that optimistic about it considering what the Republicans have as a floor
but then again it wouldn't be an Aaron Strife post otherwise
You can't just transform burger-flippers into construction workers, nor would they want to. If they want better jobs, that's on them.Daniel B·;184740674 said:Yeah, but, how many of those jobs are minimum wage, with some being filled by over qualified workers, who could perhaps get a job as a result of one of Bernie's programs, that allows them to use their full experience.
Just look at this shit. Straight-up garbage growth in every country but ours:What do you mean by roaring growth and envy of the developed world based off the link you gave? Also, according to CBO estimates the US has a significant output gap. Why would targeting inequality be better than putting idle resources to use?
If 2016 is like 2010 or 2014, Ross loses. If it's like 2006 or 2008, Ross wins. If it's like 2012, Ross loses to Burr by around 5%.Also, Ross is going to be a good candidate. Watch.
Furthermore, as long as there are places that require people to flip burgers there will always be burger-flipping jobs.You can't just transform burger-flippers into construction workers, nor would they want to. If they want better jobs, that's on them.
Thank you for posting this because I literally had no idea who Ross was, besides the always hilarious David Schwimmer.Holmes said:If 2016 is like 2010 or 2014, Ross loses. If it's like 2006 or 2008, Ross wins. If it's like 2012, Ross loses to Burr by around 5%.
If 2016 is like 2010 or 2014, Ross loses. If it's like 2006 or 2008, Ross wins. If it's like 2012, Ross loses to Burr by around 5%.
Are you sure you're not a conservative?You can't just transform burger-flippers into construction workers, nor would they want to. If they want better jobs, that's on them.
Hagan was a good fit for her state, and ran a great campaign last year. And she still lost. In 2008, Dole did all the work for her, really. Sure, Obama helped, but she overperformed Obama by about 10ish points. Burr has incumbency to help him, and in a state like North Carolina, being a non-problematic Republican incumbent is better than being a great Democratic incumbent.That being said I think she'll be fine. Hagan was a first-time candidate after all. If she loses it won't be through any fault of her own.
Hagan losing was really unfortunate, especially considering the polls had her up. Oh well. Wish she, Udall and Begich could have held on. NC and CO could easily swing back in 2020 but AK is probably gone for a while.Holmes said:Hagan was a good fit for her state, and ran a great campaign last year. And she still lost. In 2008, Dole did all the work for her, really. Sure, Obama helped, but she overperformed Obama by about 10ish points. Burr has incumbency to help him, and in a state like North Carolina, being a non-problematic Republican incumbent is better than being a great Democratic incumbent.
Hagan was a good fit for her state, and ran a great campaign last year. And she still lost. In 2008, Dole did all the work for her, really. Sure, Obama helped, but she overperformed Obama by about 10ish points. Burr has incumbency to help him, and in a state like North Carolina, being a non-problematic Republican incumbent is better than being a great Democratic incumbent.
Portman may be down in the polls now but this should give Democrats pause. I know Strickland will get a big boost in fundraising when the campaigns kick into high gear but this is a big head start for Portman. This will be a closely watched race next year.Republican (I): Rob Portman
Total Contributions: $7,263,700 (!!!!!)
Cash On Hand: $11,100,663 (!!!!!!!)
Sestak's been running for this seat for the past 6 years and this is all he has? And his endorsement list is very pathetic, especially compared to McGinty. But I don't really know if McGinty herself is a weak candidate or not. Certainly controversial, to put it mildly. The three Democratic judges that were elected last week were elected to replace two judges that resigned in scandal. Is it really smart to be the ones running the candidate who's been mired in scandal this time around?Pennsylvania:
Democrat: Kathleen McGinty
Total Contributions: $990,626
Cash On Hand: $892,359
Democrat: Joe Sestak
Total Contributions: $1,591,004 (a lot less impressive when you realize this is from Jan 1st and McGinty's total is from July)
Cash On Hand: $2,416,291
You're in the fringe of American liberals if you think the government should determine which jobs people deserve. The hiring process is famously inefficient, but what is the government supposed to do? No amount of shovel-ready jobs is going to turn a barista into the white-collar office drone she aspires to be. It's up to her to switch jobs.Are you sure you're not a conservative?
Also you shouldn't be so quick to call what we have roaring growth, in fact it only looks great in comparison to countries who totally botched their response to the recession. It's not even a radical position to think our growth has been below what it should be.^Obama's former economic advisor Alan Krueger on why US growth is not enough.
aniel ‏@Taniel
Day 1 of voting in #LAGov: 42K voters (that's 3.7% of October's electorate), 67% white/30% black. http://electionstatistics.sos.la.go...istics/Statewide/2015_1121_StatewideStats.pdf … h/t @jmilescoleman
Nobody said big government needs to go in and manage who deserves to be a burger flipper.You're in the fringe of American liberals if you think the government should determine which jobs people deserve. The hiring process is famously inefficient, but what is the government supposed to do? No amount of shovel-ready jobs is going to turn a barista into the white-collar office drone she aspires to be. It's up to her to switch jobs.
Sometimes I feel like the only guy who recognizes the fantastic success of the Obama administration. Chin up, people. We live in America's best days.
I was specifically responding to the guy who said we should spend $1 trillion to convert 1 million burger-flippers into construction workers and engineers to improve our infrastructure.Nobody said big government needs to go in and manage who deserves to be a burger flipper.
You claimed that we shouldn't bother to create jobs because of of inflation and roaring growth, both of which certainly aren't clear cut reasons not to create jobs.