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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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East Lake

Member
When people talk about burger flippers they're generally talking about people who have skills taking side jobs or lower pay jobs because their skills aren't being put to use, so taking it literally that federal programs are going to start hiring at a mcd's near you is probably the wrong way to take it. Also spending in one sector spills over into other sectors. So optimally you could give burger flippers more opportunities to move elsewhere if the economy heats up. And you also still used a couple unfounded claims to rule out investment in infrastructure, which is something Obama's former econ advisor says is a good thing.
 

Makai

Member
Mismatched workers are a facet of every economy and a make-work program is not changing that. The recession is over, the economy is healthy, and unemployment is bottoming out. Let's not create a construction bubble by dropping a trillion on infrastructure. China is a cautionary tale of what happens to an economy that overprioritizes infrastructure.
 
Mismatched workers are a facet of every economy and a make-work program is not changing that. The recession is over, the economy is healthy, and unemployment is bottoming out. Let's not create a construction bubble by dropping a trillion on infrastructure. China is a cautionary tale of what happens to an economy that overprioritizes infrastructure.

What, pray tell, would you suggest we do about our infrastructure? Automation (as in automated construction)? I mean, we're already headed in that direction anyway. I think a trillion dollars should be enough to cover R&D and deployment
lol

On a more serious note, I don't think creating more jobs necessarily brings the unemployment rate down. I could see many people leaving other physical labor jobs to work in construction with enough incentive.
 

East Lake

Member
The idea that people can't be retrained for work elsewhere is a cop out often used by conservatives (or confused democrats) who need reasons for the government not to spend. Krugman's last book literally starts off with a quote from some guy saying the same thing before gigantic spending took place after the great depression. China is also structurally different than the US and is not a cautionary tale. Before worrying about bridges to nowhere a lot of money needs to be spend anyway just to maintain and repair the infrastructure we have currently, much less modernize so we catch up with the third world. Citing inflation as some serious concern seems insane to me.

Never fix the roads because inflation is coming!
 
The idea that people can't be retrained for work elsewhere is a cop out often used by conservatives (or confused democrats) who need reasons for the government not to spend. Krugman's last book literally starts off with a quote from some guy saying the same thing before gigantic spending took place after the great depression. China is also structurally different than the US and is not a cautionary tale. Before worrying about bridges to nowhere a lot of money needs to be spend anyway just to maintain and repair the infrastructure we have currently, much less modernize so we catch up with the third world. Citing inflation as some serious concern seems insane to me.

Never fix the roads because inflation is coming!

I agree. I'm really not seeing the big issue here.
 

Makai

Member
What, pray tell, would you suggest we do about our infrastructure? Automation (as in automated construction)? I mean, we're already headed in that direction anyway. I think a trillion dollars should be enough to cover R&D and deployment
lol

On a more serious note, I don't think creating more jobs necessarily brings the unemployment rate down. I could see many people leaving other physical labor jobs to work in construction with enough incentive.
American roads are improving because we spend $100 billion annually on them. We should just tell the team to keep up the good work.
 
American roads are improving because we spend $100 billion annually on them. We should just tell the team to keep up the good work.

Because that's been working out so swell for us, hasn't it?

What you're forgetting is one huge, critical factor; time. We can't outrun it or ignore it, and as long as we don't have an adequate amount of resources dedicated to fixing our infrastructure in an adequate amount of time, the problem just implodes on itself.

You're essentially saying that there's nothing wrong with how we're addressing the issue right now, which is absolutely ridiculous.


Rocky Moretti speaking with The Guardian said:
“It’s absolutely critical that we address this transportation funding deficit,” he said. “The US currently has a $740bn backlog in improvements needed to restore the nation’s roads, highways and bridges to the level of condition and performance needed to meet the nation’s transportation demands.”

http://www.theguardian.com/travel/2015/jul/27/america-infrastructure-roadways-highways-funding

I don't know what fantasy world you're living in, but our approach to repairing/rebuilding our infrastructure is in desperate need of an overhaul.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Mismatched workers are a facet of every economy and a make-work program is not changing that. The recession is over, the economy is healthy, and unemployment is bottoming out. Let's not create a construction bubble by dropping a trillion on infrastructure. China is a cautionary tale of what happens to an economy that overprioritizes infrastructure.

China's not a cautionary tale of an economy that overprioritizes infrastructure. China is a tale of a country which is facing increasing supply and capital constraints to growth and is therefore artificially increasing demand (with infrastructure as the mechanism) to try and keep growth rates in line with past norms, leading to an inflationary spiral and credit bubble. The United States would not 'do a China' by focusing on infrastructure when a) the United States is not operating at anywhere near maximum output and b) the United States suffers from critically poor infrastructure and thus to a point building infrastructure in the United States stands to increase maximum output regardless (unlike building megatowers in Shanghai).

Mismatched workers are a facet of every economy, but some economies consistenly report lower residues of frictional unemployment. Unsurprisingly, these are the economies that offer easier routes to allowing workers to reskill such as a greater focus on night-shift education programmes and loan support during apprenticeships. The recession is certainly over and has been for some time, but to suggest the economy is in a great state is deeply misleading. The United States has labour force participation at a 30-year record low and this is concentrated in the 18-24 demographic - we have a jobless generation on our hands. The United States is not operating near maximal output. Unemployment is reducing, but underemployment is reducing much faster, implying that most of the new jobs being made are temporary or low hour contracts.

On a more macro level and more importantly on a more political level, that spending power of the poorest decile in society has been stagnant. Productivity and compensation remain decoupled and an ever larger proportion of the value that labour produces goes towards business owners rather than employees. The United States is sick and cheering on a sliver of wealth that overwhelmingly goes towards the same people for the same reasons year after year is putting any desire to do something about this to the death.
 

Chichikov

Member
Never fix the roads because inflation is coming!
Remember, inflation is always coming.
And if it didn't came even though it was like totally coming, then it's a sign it's going to come soon and be even more inflationary.

Also, all levels of inflation are terrible, because reasons.
 
CNN not letting up on Carson.

Surprised Reince isnt running around screaming the liberal media is out to get Carson,

Edit nvm

TODAY ‏@TODAYshow
"This is a totally crazy obsession over incredible details from 30-40 yrs ago." Reince Priebus, RNC Chairman on recent Ben Carson claims.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
How did I miss this from yesterday?

Yahoo said:
He [Carson] ripped a Wall Street Journal article in which the reporter claimed that a class given at Yale Carson claimed to have taken in his book Gifted Hands, did not actually exist. Carson pushed back by posting to social media what he said was a syllabus from the class. However, Carson claimed to have taken the class in 1970, and the syllabus was from 2002.

:lol

Come on. It is clear he knows the type of people he is appealing to here. I can't believe the man is dumb enough to think that would be a reasonable piece of evidence.
 
How did I miss this from yesterday?



:lol

Come on. It is clear he knows the type of people he is appealing to here. I can't believe the man is dumb enough to think that would be a reasonable piece of evidence.

In my experience of chatting with Carson supporters, I don't think the evidence matters. They'll just say the media's making it all up as a part of the smear campaign.

These people don't operate on sound logic, so you can't use sound logic to enlighten them.
 
Pack it up HillaryGaf. We're done. We won't be able to force the American public to accept our neo-liberal, corporate Shrill-in-Chief.

Western Illinois University ran their mock election

election.jpg


They were 100% spot on in 2007. They predicted that the Obama/Edwards ticket would win all but six states against the Guliani/McCain ticket. It also predicted with 100% accuracy the 2012 election, where Obama dumped Biden and picked Hillary as Veep. 100% accurate. Don't question it. Move on. These aren't the polls you're looking for.

All kidding aside, this is pretty neat that they do this, I guess. But, I want to know why they couldn't include, you know, actual demographics in deciding how to allocate electoral votes. Otherwise, it's just a pointless thought exercise, isn't it? There is, quite literally, no plausible scenario in which a Democrat wins Mississippi but loses Alabama, for instance. (Hell, there's no scenario where we'd win any of them...)

Still, I guess it's kinda cool?
 
Man, that's right up there with Jim Cramer's estimate from 2012..
158da7a153428296cd94f57612a7f10a_500x245.jpg

Holy heck, I forgot about that. Hahaha.

My favorite part is they're like "Meh, Pennsylvania's too close. Fuck it. No one gets it."

I also like Rand as the Veep on the Libertarian ticket.

Also, if you go into the primary results, Sanders won every single state. All of them. HIllary managed to net no delegates at all from Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Hell, she didn't get any from Arkansas. Hahahaha. Oh man that's great. This entier thing is like the epitome of a "You Tried" ribbon.

Edit: It looks like the League of Conservation Voters Action Fund is going to endorse Hillary today. Story Here
 
Man, that's right up there with Jim Cramer's estimate from 2012..
158da7a153428296cd94f57612a7f10a_500x245.jpg
If you watched the video where Cramer made his prediction it was pretty obvious he was joking. Everyone else was saying it would be a close election and he's just like "You know what? Fuck it, Obama landslide, 440 EVs baby"

His prediction was actually closer than Dick Morris'.
 

noshten

Member
Have you read the TPP? All 6000 pages of it? Which chapter is about intellectual property? Which chapter is about government procurement? Which chapter covers the dairy industry? Which chapter talks about currency manipulation? What does each chapter mean? What provisions cover all the contents of the TPP? Which chapter details ISDS?


The TPP and State Sovereignty: A Toothless Preamble, Weak Code of Conduct, Secret Proceedings, and a Tobacco Carve-Out That Might Not Carve Out

Conclusion

In summary, then, the FT coverage of the ISDS chapter of the TPP ranges from outright wrong to weakly mis- or disinformative.

1) The Preamble is only, as it were, informative. It is not normative, and in itself does not establish the rights of states to regulate for the welfare of their citizens;

2) The ISDS “Code of Conduct” is no such thing, since it does not include ethical canons or guidelines for outside activity;

3) ISDS proceeedings are most definitely not required to be public; the parties can agree that they be secret, and the confidentiality clause is a loophole even a bad lawyer could drive a truck through;

4) The so-called tobacco carve-out still permits challenge, and hence does not change the power imbalance between rich and threatening corporations and states that are small or poor.

In other words, if NC were WaPo, it would be awarding the FT multiple Pinocchios for its coverage of the ISDS.[4] Could do better!

The TPP is a major international agreement. Is it too much to ask that the financial press take this story seriously?


http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015...bacco-carve-out-that-might-not-carve-out.html

Now unless you've read the 6000 page document and have some other reading on the judicial ramifications of the deal can we agree that it's fairly ambivalent and goes no where near far enough to address humanitarian problems.
 

HylianTom

Banned
If you watched the video where Cramer made his prediction it was pretty obvious he was joking. Everyone else was saying it would be a close election and he's just like "You know what? Fuck it, Obama landslide, 440 EVs baby"

His prediction was actually closer than Dick Morris'.
Yup! I was trying to find the video..

And just for laughs, because this will never get old to me..

 

AndyD

aka andydumi
Everyone will just vote for the guys who want to get rid of that law. You'd see more success making election day a national holiday and giving everyone the day off.

I happened to be in Belize on their election day. Not only was it a national holiday, so most places were closed, but alcohol sales were also banned. And there was a very festive atmosphere, as people didn't have much to do but hang out and go vote.

Making it a federal holiday would be a huge step forward and one that the federal government could actually do. I think too much about elections is left to the states, especially in elections for national positions.
 

dramatis

Member
The TPP and State Sovereignty: A Toothless Preamble, Weak Code of Conduct, Secret Proceedings, and a Tobacco Carve-Out That Might Not Carve Out


http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015...bacco-carve-out-that-might-not-carve-out.html

Now unless you've read the 6000 page document and have some other reading on the judicial ramifications of the deal can we agree that it's fairly ambivalent and goes no where near far enough to address humanitarian problems.
Straight off the beginning of your article, the author admits his lack of knowledge and his bias.
In this post, I’m going to take what might at first sight look like a deep dive into the text of the TPP. However, as I’ve discovered, international law, and international trade law, are both insanely complex, and so, in reality, this dive is very shallow.[1] (Of course, in finance, we know what complexity means: Opportunities for accounting control fraud and looting. But that is a topic for another post.)

Deep dive or no, however, I hope to show that coverage of TPP in the financial press after the complete text of the TPP was released has hitherto been abysmally shallow and naive, not so say counterfactual. Since, in my view, the Financial Times (FT) is the best of breed, I’m going to take its coverage as a proxy for the press as a whole, and I’m going to look at how the FT presented the Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) mechanism in Chapter 28. (Many of the TPP’s chapters cover, as it were, vertical markets, like intellectual property, agriculture, or the environment, but the ISDS is horizontal, in that it provides a facility for dispute resolution that applies across all the verticals. If you believe that the TPP is part of an emergent global apparatus superseding sovereign states and tuned to the needs of global trans- and post-national elites, then Chapter 28 is the chapter to read.)
Imagine admitting your analysis is pretty shallow and then turning your argument towards showing how other people are also giving shallow analysis. How informative and helpful.

So have you read even one page of the TPP agreement? I know I've read one. You know what I learned from that brief reading? That this is actually even more complicated, because from the get go the TPP states that parties who have signed prior trade agreements are still beholden to those agreements, which means what the TPP lacks might actually be covered by other trade agreements.

Another problem Berniebros apparently share is the inability to read the mood. We've moved on from this discussion, but for some reason you feel like as long as you have the last word, you're the 'winner'. And you still insist on digging it up days later, because you can't settle for end of discussion, no, you have to be 'victorious' and 'righteous'. (There is notably another poster here that does the same thing, but he doesn't realize it.)

Ironically you never addressed my original comment, which is that people are fearmongering over a document that has yet to be thoroughly analyzed. So do you have evidence to the contrary or not? I did not, for instance, object to disagreement with the TPP. What I objected to is blind, irrational rejection of the TPP based on incomplete analysis, biased statements issued by various parties, and fearmongering.

When I presented evidence against the exact hypothetical situation you claimed would favor corporations and harm countries, including provisions from the TPP agreements and from historical data about the ISDS (which you didn't even actually understand or bother to research and understand), you discounted the TPP provisions and claimed that you hadn't seen any evidence contradicting your 'knowledge' of the situation. Do you see the problem here? For me it is not about supporting or not supporting the TPP, but about understanding and using a clear, more objective approach to the material rather than deciding your stance and ignoring evidence that goes against it while propping up evidence that supports it. Instead, you cooked up more hypothetical situations that, if laid out in detail, would ironically make your hypothetical situations just plain unrealistic altogether.

Move on.
 
Shots Fired
http://www.newsmax.com/t/newsmax/article/700838
Governor George Pataki on being removed from Fox Businesses debate for the popularity challenged:
"I am very disappointed tonight that early national polls are shaping the election choices for the American people," Pataki said, adding that he sees the trend as "a danger to our primary system, a disservice to voters everywhere – especially those in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina – and a clear boost to the worship of celebrity over accomplishment and ideas."
LM2QMHH.jpg

Salty parting shots from a doomed campaign, clearly mad that they needed to get rid of him and graham to have enough room for christie
 

kingkitty

Member
Another problem Berniebros apparently share is the inability to read the mood. We've moved on from this discussion, but for some reason you feel like as long as you have the last word, you're the 'winner'. And you still insist on digging it up days later, because you can't settle for end of discussion, no, you have to be 'victorious' and 'righteous'. (There is notably another poster here that does the same thing, but he doesn't realize it.)

But aren't you trying to have the last word here too?

Now I have the last word.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Shots Fired
http://www.newsmax.com/t/newsmax/article/700838
Governor George Pataki on being removed from Fox Businesses debate for the popularity challenged:


Salty parting shots from a doomed campaign, clearly mad that they needed to get rid of him and graham to have enough room for christie

Man, he wouldn't even win NY. We hate him here, no idea how he even got elected in the first place.

Another problem Berniebros apparently share is the inability to read the mood. We've moved on from this discussion, but for some reason you feel like as long as you have the last word, you're the 'winner'. And you still insist on digging it up days later, because you can't settle for end of discussion, no, you have to be 'victorious' and 'righteous'. (There is notably another poster here that does the same thing, but he doesn't realize it.)

Is it me? Am I that poster? I'll be better, I promise.
 
Since you're all filthy LINO's, jacobin on how the idea of the Bernie Bro is largely a myth.

No comment on them being white as virgin snow or young-ish, tho.


Pack it up HillaryGaf. We're done. We won't be able to force the American public to accept our neo-liberal, corporate Shrill-in-Chief.

Western Illinois University ran their mock election

All kidding aside, this is pretty neat that they do this, I guess. But, I want to know why they couldn't include, you know, actual demographics in deciding how to allocate electoral votes. Otherwise, it's just a pointless thought exercise, isn't it? There is, quite literally, no plausible scenario in which a Democrat wins Mississippi but loses Alabama, for instance. (Hell, there's no scenario where we'd win any of them...)

Still, I guess it's kinda cool?

Isn't that kind of the goal of mock uni elections?

"Venezuela is fine, the citizens living there are neo-liberal liars."

We didn't ever get to hear his opinion on advanced Maduro politics, tho. Iirc.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Next up, Jindal.

Dude's festering in the basement since the thing started. Have some shame, Bobby.

Bobby wouldn't have gotten into this if he had shame, did you not see his announcement video? That was the announcement video of a man who has no idea what shame even looks like.
 
CTYnyYEWEAAbs2J.jpg


The right wing response to black Missouri students has been as horrible as you would expect.

But at least we have the War on Christmas to keep us company:

“Starbucks REMOVED CHRISTMAS from their cups because they hate Jesus,” wrote Joshua Feuerstein in a viral Facebook post with nearly 10 million views. In an accompanying video, Feuerstein encourages customers to give their name as “Merry Christmas” to force Starbucks employees to say the phrase. The movement had caught on by Sunday with the hashtag “MerryChristmasStarbucks” trending on Facebook.
 

User1608

Banned
Those Christians and their persecution complex. Ughh. Makes me grateful my boss is such a nice, decent man at least. Also has a great sense of humor.
 

Makai

Member
China's not a cautionary tale of an economy that overprioritizes infrastructure. China is a tale of a country which is facing increasing supply and capital constraints to growth and is therefore artificially increasing demand (with infrastructure as the mechanism) to try and keep growth rates in line with past norms, leading to an inflationary spiral and credit bubble. The United States would not 'do a China' by focusing on infrastructure when a) the United States is not operating at anywhere near maximum output and b) the United States suffers from critically poor infrastructure and thus to a point building infrastructure in the United States stands to increase maximum output regardless (unlike building megatowers in Shanghai).

Mismatched workers are a facet of every economy, but some economies consistenly report lower residues of frictional unemployment. Unsurprisingly, these are the economies that offer easier routes to allowing workers to reskill such as a greater focus on night-shift education programmes and loan support during apprenticeships. The recession is certainly over and has been for some time, but to suggest the economy is in a great state is deeply misleading. The United States has labour force participation at a 30-year record low and this is concentrated in the 18-24 demographic - we have a jobless generation on our hands. The United States is not operating near maximal output. Unemployment is reducing, but underemployment is reducing much faster, implying that most of the new jobs being made are temporary or low hour contracts.

On a more macro level and more importantly on a more political level, that spending power of the poorest decile in society has been stagnant. Productivity and compensation remain decoupled and an ever larger proportion of the value that labour produces goes towards business owners rather than employees. The United States is sick and cheering on a sliver of wealth that overwhelmingly goes towards the same people for the same reasons year after year is putting any desire to do something about this to the death.
As far as I know, the idea that we have "crumbling roads and bridges" comes from the American Society for Civil Engineers. That group always gives us a bad report card. Straight Cs and Ds for 15 years, and yet here we are - a functioning nation. There's a difference between identifying potential for improvement and identifying an area worth improving. Here's ACSE's explanation for its road grade and it's not exactly a call-to-action:

Forty-two percent of the nation's urban highways remain congested at an estimated cost of $101 billion in wasted time and fuel annually. The cost to significantly improve conditions is estimated to be $170 billion per year.

Has anyone proven that the labor participation rate is down because people are unable to find jobs? I know big contributors are retirement and an uptick in disability claims. Not sure why it'd rise for 18-24 year olds, but I'm among them! Neither employed nor unemployed - just taking a break for the rest of the year.

Your last point is why I believe targeting inequality is a better use of our resources than targeting job creation. Work is not good in and of itself unless it's mproving people's lives.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Thus far, early voting for the first weekend of the runoff is UP over last month's first weekend. That has to be making the Vitter folks a bit nervous.. usually runoff turnout drops.

David Vitter, dead man walking: Louisiana’s most feared Republican is now its most loathed — and he’s going to lose


Then, a strange thing happened on Vitter’s stroll to the Louisiana governor’s mansion. In the state’s Oct. 24 primary (candidates of all parties run in a so-called “open primary”), Vitter nearly missed the Nov. 21 runoff election. He earned only 23 percent of the vote, trailing his lone Democratic opponent, state Rep. John Bel Edwards, by 17 points.

Vitter has been reeling like a punch-drunk boxer for more than two weeks. He is far behind Edwards in every poll released since the primary and now faces new, potentially fatal allegations regarding his connection to a Washington, D.C., prostitution service.

Last Friday, Edwards released an explosive new spot alleging that Vitter missed a Feb. 27, 2001, U.S. House vote honoring slain American soldiers while he waited on a phone call from a prostitute. It was the first time anyone had credibly suggested that Vitter’s prostitution habit in the late 1990s and early 2000s had influenced the performance of his public duties.

Some observers have questioned the wisdom of a strident, negative attack from Edwards, who appears to be sitting on a comfortable lead. The Edwards campaign, however, surely noted events last week in Kentucky. Republican Matt Bevin shocked the political world and handily won that state’s governorship, despite ample polling that showed him trailing his Democratic opponent.

Not content to sit on his lead, Edwards went for Vitter’s throat. The spot says Vitter “answered a prostitute’s call minutes after he skipped a vote honoring 28 soldiers, who gave their lives in defense of our freedoms. David Vitter chose prostitutes over patriots.” One Edwards’ intimate told me he regarded the commercial as “a kill shot.”
 
McClatchy/Marist poll

In a test of the ability to win, the poll found Carson the strongest general election candidate among top GOP candidates against either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders, followed by Rubio.

Clinton would defeat Carson by 2 percentage points, Rubio by 5; Bush by 8; Cruz or Fiorina by 10; and Trump by 15.

Sanders would lose to Carson by 2 percentage points and defeat Rubio by 3, Bush by 10, Cruz or Trump by 12, and Fiorina by 14.
Wish they had specific numbers but whatever. Carson is first in the primary followed by Trump.

Interesting that Clinton and Sanders don't have a huge electability difference but they perform better or worse depending on the GOP candidate. Clinton does better against Carson, Rubio, and Trump. Sanders does better against Bush, Cruz and Fiorina.
 

Cheebo

Banned
Carson now leads 2/3 of the key early states and nationally. Pretty crazy. No question he is full on front runner by all indications at this point.
 
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