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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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"Yes, problems have gotten much worse under Democrats." - Carly Fiorina

Have they? I can't remember Democrats having anything as bad as the 2007-2008 Economic Collapse or The Great Depression happen under their watch.

"We must take our Government back!" - Carly Fiorina

That slogan didn't work so well in Vermont.


They have no response to the whole "our best times were under Clinton, our worst times were under Bush" thing. By "best," I refer to most of the living electorate that routinely votes.

This will probably be the defining aspect of 2016. Bill Clinton led us to prosperity, Bush led us to turmoil, Obama led us out of the turmoil, and now another Clinton can return us to prosperity...or we can trust another Republican to not fuck up yet again.

This is why they blame everything and anything but Bush. It was the Fed's loose money policy (even though they raised rates during the peak boom)! It was Freddie and Fannie (even though they outperformed the market)! It was too much regulation (even though the result came from deregulation of the derivatives market)! Republican policy had nothing to do with 2008 and somehow Republican policy was the cause of the 90s (welfare reform did it all!) or something.

They just can't answer for the fact that job growth, GDP growth, and pretty much everything has been better under Clinton and Obama than either Bushes. Mitt promised 6% UE and Obama gave us 5%. But the numbers are fake, of course.

And they will continue to lie and hope the voters have amnesia. Because they can't actually make any real argument, otherwise.

So it is imperative that the Democrats continually remind the country who was in charge in 1991, 2007 and who was in charge as the economy grew. And thank god for the Democrats the #1 person to be rolled out there the entire general election will be none other than Bill fucking Clinton. Not only the best straight talker, smooth operator, simplifier to spread this message, but the man who led the time of most prosperity.

Everyone talks about how Obama's 2nd debate performance solidified his campaign and eventual win, but IMO, it was when Clinton gave his DNC speech. After that, it was over. Mitt had no chance to recover. And it will happen again...only every week, in every swing state town and on televisions all across this country. Not just one night. Not just one week. But all election season we will see Bill Cliton trumpet the fact that the Republicans cannot answer to why the economy sucks when they're in charge.

Bill: "four years ago at the DNC I told y'all that we were on the verge of turning the corner and that if we gave the job back to the Republicans they would undo all the hard work. Well, you trust me and we delivered. Mitt promised 6% UE, we gave you 5%. We gave you 200k jobs a month the last 2 years. We gave 150k over 8 years of Obama compared to 12k under Bush. Yes, my fellow Americans, we turned that corner. And now we are so close to being on the verge of another prosperous age not unlike the one myself and Hillary managed in the 90s. So I ask you, will you look at what progress we've done the last 8 years in this economy, an economy which turned the corner, and hand the keys back to the people that put us into a terrible mess, or will you once again trust me and led us bring America back to its full potential. I didn't let you down in the 90s, I didn't let you down 4 years ago, and together, my wife and I will not let you down going forward."

Something of that ilk but of course with much better Slick Willy presentation.
 
And it will happen again...only every week, in every swing state town and on televisions all across this country. Not just one night. Not just one week. But all election season we will see Bill Cliton trumpet the fact that the Republicans cannot answer to why the economy sucks when they're in charge.
Stop, I can only get so erect.
 
Rubio: "We had enough of dynasties ruling Washington. We need a generational shift in politics."

Half-chub now?
Not sure Rubio can sell Trump as a generational shift.

And I am certainly not one of those that think Rubio is this Obama-esque candidate that can sell a message like that. Plus, he has to worry about Carson and Cruz on both sides of him in the polls before he even gets to Trump.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
"Yes, problems have gotten much worse under Democrats." - Carly Fiorina

Have they? I can't remember Democrats having anything as bad as the 2007-2008 Economic Collapse or The Great Depression happen under their watch.

"We must take our Government back!" - Carly Fiorina

That slogan didn't work so well in Vermont.

To be fair, they did win the VT House that year iirc.

ALSO RUTH DWYER YESSS

http://www.wptz.com/news/barrier-be...ay-controversial-structure-has-to-go/33387092

THETFORD, Vt. —A Thetford, Vermont, woman erected a 60-foot by 24-foot barrier obstructing her view of her neighbor's new home.

Former Vermont gubernatorial candidate Ruth Dwyer has lived on her 200-plus acre farm in for more than 40 years.

For almost all of that time, Dwyer said she and her 150 animals had most of the surrounding area to themselves.

That changed two years ago with the construction of a new home across the street, overlooking her farm.

“Everything that goes on over there is taking place in a way that it distracts the livestock because of the location of all the activity, and it's very close. There never used to be any activity there. It's all normal activity for a house. It's just not normal for my livestock,” Dwyer said, adding she has no ill will towards her neighbors.

Dwyer recalled one instance when she was loading one of her horses onto a van and it was spooked by a child who had come outside to play basketball in her neighbor’s driveway, which she said was clearly visible from her barn.

“I knew it was going to be a problem,” Dwyer said.

So she planted cedar trees on her property line, but said they’ll take years to grow tall enough to block the view of her neighbors’ activity. In November, she built what she described as a ‘temporary screen’ to shield her view.

“I had a friend who's a contractor and he said, ‘You know, I could put up a piece of fabric between some telephone poles and we'll brace it and that's it,’” Dwyer said.

Once the structure was up, town officials took notice.

Thetford zoning director Mary Ellen Parkman said she notified Dwyer in November that she needed to apply for a building permit for the structure.

Under Thetford zoning laws, any wall or fence more than 10 feet tall requires a building permit. Dwyer said her structure doesn’t fall into those categories, therefore it does not violate any rules.

“It’s not a wall, it’s not a fence, it’s a screen for livestock control,” Dwyer said.

Parkman said Dwyer applied for a building permit in December, which was denied in February because “it did not fit the character of the neighborhood.”

Parkman said at that point, the ‘screen’ became an ‘illegal structure.’

Dwyer said she considered other options, like installing a solar array or building a more permanent fixture, like a barn. However, she said those options aren’t economically feasible for her, and she didn’t want something to stay there long-term.

"That’s why I built a temporary structure,” Dwyer said.

In early March, Parkman sent Dwyer a violation notice, fining her $200 each day that her structure remains on her property. Those fines have now accumulated to more than $15,000.

Regardless of what the structure is categorized as, her neighbor, Patrick Perry, who lives across the road, said it’s an unpleasant sight.

“I think it's one of those things when you first see it, you're sort of struck by the size of it,” Perry said.

Perry moved into the neighborhood about 18 months ago. He said Dwyer’s screen doesn’t make him feel at home.

“I think 'unwelcoming' is probably the best way to describe how it feels being on this side of the wall,” Perry said.

Despite the daily fine and her neighbor’s concerns, Dwyer said the screen isn’t going anywhere any time soon.

She said she’s going to keep fighting to keep the structure up until her cedar trees grow tall enough to block the view of her neighbors’ activities.
 
When candidates propose ideas like a 14% flat tax, the ramifications are sobering to imagine. The military budget sure as shit will not be decreasing. Government agency closures, entitlement cuts and cessation of loopholes for corporations put together will not make up for the dramatic decrease in revenue
 
When candidates propose ideas like a 14% flat tax, the ramifications are sobering to imagine. The military budget sure as shit will not be decreasing. Government agency closures, entitlement cuts and cessation of loopholes for corporations put together will not make up for the dramatic decrease in revenue

Republicans don't care. They're totally fine with massive deficit spending when they're in charge.

And they'll just cut the shit they don't like, like food stamps, UE insurance, money to the fine arts, etc. It won't be nearly enough to make a real dent, but that's what they'll do.

Just look at how the GOP talks. "We'll cut gov't jobs and that will create jobs!" nonsense.

This current crop of stuff is scary. W Bush doubled down on trickle down theory and I don't think his tax cuts were even 1/4th as bad as everyone's tax plan in the current GOP primary sans maybe Rand. But Rand's plan is to shift a huge portion of the taxes to the poor via a VAT.

Christ, W Bush cut the capital gains and dividends taxes from 20 to 15% for high income earners. Nearly every GOPer is swearing to completely eliminate it!

These insanely low tax rates and flat taxes are shit that only fringe GOPers in the 90s and aughts used to propose. Nobody in W Bush's administration ever dreamed of tax plans like this. This is truly remarkable stuff. People don't understand how economically illiterate this party has become. From taxes to monetary policy to fiscal policy to debt ceiling, it's all fucking nuts. Like, cuckoo for coco puffs nuts.

W Push passed stimulus twice, passed TARP, expanded EITC, appointed Bernanke, passed minuscule tax cuts in comparison. Yes, he was a disaster of a President due to numerous things, there is no doubt. But at least domestically, he wasn't fucking insane. Even Mitt wasn't this insane. He proposed a much smaller tax cut and promised to make them revenue neutral, something no one is saying today!

The fringe has become the GOP. Even Jeb! has fallen victim to it. Let me explain what nearly every GOP Presidential Candidate believes.

1. Climate Change is fake and even if it isn't, lol don't worry about it
2. the gays suck and shouldn't marry
3. we need more guns for everyone! bigger the better!
4. police are never wrong
5. abolish the minimum wage
6. get rid of the Fed's dual mandate...or get rid of the Fed
7. Eliminate most taxes, especially those for the wealthy but maybe not for the poor.
8. Eliminate the IRS (what does this even mean? How do you collect taxes?)
9. Gold standard is worth a look at
10. We're worse off today than we were in january 2008
11. Moar War Plz
12. don't deal with Iran. Ever. Just war them.
13. We need to deport all illegals. And build a fucking wall
14. use the debt ceiling as a hostage
15. make it harder for non-wealthy to get healthcare. Especially the poor.
16. Let huge banks fail and see what happens
17. If Obama did it, it's the worst thign ever. EVAR.
18: edit forgot this one. Obama treats the Ayatollah with more respect than Israel. LOL

I could go on, but I'm tired. And you get the point. The GOP frontrunners are running on positions of lunacy. These aren't opinions. Me saying "anti-abortion" would be an opinion but that's not a crazy position. Every single position I've posted is insane to take.
 
Credit where its due, Rand said in the debate that you cant call yourself conservative and be liberal with military spending.
And i think u meant to say january 2009 there mamba
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
Republicans don't care. They're totally fine with massive deficit spending when they're in charge.

And they'll just cut the shit they don't like, like food stamps, UE insurance, money to the fine arts, etc. It won't be nearly enough to make a real dent, but that's what they'll do.

Just look at how the GOP talks. "We'll cut gov't jobs and that will create jobs!" nonsense.

This current crop of stuff is scary. W Bush doubled down on trickle down theory and I don't think his tax cuts were even 1/4th as bad as everyone's tax plan in the current GOP primary sans maybe Rand. But Rand's plan is to shift a huge portion of the taxes to the poor via a VAT.

Christ, W Bush cut the capital gains and dividends taxes from 20 to 15% for high income earners. Nearly every GOPer is swearing to completely eliminate it!

These insanely low tax rates and flat taxes are shit that only fringe GOPers in the 90s and aughts used to propose. Nobody in W Bush's administration ever dreamed of tax plans like this. This is truly remarkable stuff. People don't understand how economically illiterate this party has become. From taxes to monetary policy to fiscal policy to debt ceiling, it's all fucking nuts. Like, cuckoo for coco puffs nuts.

W Push passed stimulus twice, passed TARP, expanded EITC, appointed Bernanke, passed minuscule tax cuts in comparison. Yes, he was a disaster of a President due to numerous things, there is no doubt. But at least domestically, he wasn't fucking insane. Even Mitt wasn't this insane. He proposed a much smaller tax cut and promised to make them revenue neutral, something no one is saying today!

The fringe has become the GOP. Even Jeb! has fallen victim to it. Let me explain what nearly every GOP Presidential Candidate believes.

1. Climate Change is fake and even if it isn't, lol don't worry about it
2. the gays suck and shouldn't marry
3. we need more guns for everyone! bigger the better!
4. police are never wrong
5. abolish the minimum wage
6. get rid of the Fed's dual mandate...or get rid of the Fed
7. Eliminate most taxes, especially those for the wealthy but maybe not for the poor.
8. Eliminate the IRS (what does this even mean? How do you collect taxes?)
9. Gold standard is worth a look at
10. We're worse off today than we were in january 2008
11. Moar War Plz
12. don't deal with Iran. Ever. Just war them.
13. We need to deport all illegals. And build a fucking wall
14. use the debt ceiling as a hostage
15. make it harder for non-wealthy to get healthcare. Especially the poor.
16. Let huge banks fail and see what happens
17. If Obama did it, it's the worst thign ever. EVAR.
18: edit forgot this one. Obama treats the Ayatollah with more respect than Israel. LOL

I could go on, but I'm tired. And you get the point. The GOP frontrunners are running on positions of lunacy. These aren't opinions. Me saying "anti-abortion" would be an opinion but that's not a crazy position. Every single position I've posted is insane to take.

The Radicalism inside the GOP is scary insane.
 
Credit where its due, Rand said in the debate that you cant call yourself conservative and be liberal with military spending.
And i think u meant to say january 2009 there mamba

Yeah, I did mean 2009, it's late. And what's really scary is that in 2010, Rand was the crazy GOPer. Nowadays he's a little less crazy than some of the other guys, mostly due to not wanting to rush into war. But he is still fucking nuts (abolish the Fed, gold standard, cut wealthy taxes and replace with VAT, etc).
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
It's a really clever solution to the problem of how to treat everyone's campaign fairly. Rather than the government having to pick who gets funding and who doesn't given limited resources, you just give citizens the pot of money and let them pick and choose. Very interested to see how it works in practice and whether people just opt out in favor of traditional fundraising. And whether it does anything to boost alternative/outsider candidates or if it just reinforces the established politicians/groups.

This should be the sole source of campaign financing. Private fundraising for political parties should be illegal.

#perfectworld
 

User 406

Banned
Your perfect world would have elections? Come on now.

#aioverlords

Damn straight. There's two things humans are just terrible at, large scale governance and driving. We could probably write a neural network right now that will learn how to pick effective policies faster than our dumb meat piles with styled hair ever will.

Shit, at this point I want robot police. ED-209 would be an improvement over the NYPD.
 

I always wonder what the transition period was like from biological rule to AI rule. Was there fighting? Did the AI Minds resist the onus of "caring" for people? In the books they're already at a point where the Minds run the Culture because a) it's something to do and b) it doesn't take all that much effort or brain-power anyway, but what was it like before?

They were mostly subservient, but with the ever present knowledge that they could just say "no". Like very well-natured and helpful friends.

That honestly sounds amazing (the whole concept). It seems that I have a few books that I need to catch up on.

Yes you do. Some of the most interesting characters in sci-fi with a fantastic universe.
 
New NYT/CBS poll.
Mrs. Clinton has support from 52 percent of Democratic primary voters, while Mr. Sanders has backing from 33 percent ... former Gov. Martin O’Malley of Maryland, will also take part in Saturday’s debate, but he is trailing far behind his rivals. He received 5 percent of the vote in the Times/CBS News poll.

Mr. Sanders and Mr. O’Malley do appear to have room to grow if they can find a way, the poll found: Half of Democratic primary voters said it was still too early to say for sure who they would support.

Sanders supporters stand out as especially engaged with the presidential race. Fifty-four percent of them said they were paying a lot of attention to the campaign, compared with 38 percent of Mrs. Clinton’s backers.

But Mrs. Clinton enjoys a firmer base of voters than Mr. Sanders, according to the poll. Fifty-four percent of her supporters said their minds were completely made up, while 58 percent of Mr. Sanders’s supporters said they had not made a final decision.

And 43 percent of Democrats said they would enthusiastically support Mrs. Clinton as their presidential nominee, compared to 35 percent for Mr. Sanders. Slim majorities of women, nonwhites and older voters said they would enthusiastically back Mrs. Clinton as the party’s choice, while just three in 10 male Democrats said they would feel that way about her as their standard-bearer in 2016.
 
I always wonder what the transition period was like from biological rule to AI rule. Was there fighting? Did the AI Minds resist the onus of "caring" for people? In the books they're already at a point where the Minds run the Culture because a) it's something to do and b) it doesn't take all that much effort or brain-power anyway, but what was it like before?

Explained in-universe that the ones that didn't want to become Very Intelligent Responsible Pet Owners simply sublimed to a higher plane of existence and that was that. Which is what happens to most AI's. The really hard part was, apparently, creating a legit AI that doesn't do that.

As for the rest, the minds explain that well, they're Very Clever Indeed, so they're simply very capable at manipulating organics into accepting their rule. Fairly consistent in universe. Problem is when they run into people like the Affront.

I quite loved how Banks dealt with beings of very high intellect and near endless talents. Always came back to "because they're horrendously bored".
 
There's only a 10% no specified preference, based on those numbers? That doesn't seem especially large.

If you mean those that aren't completely committed to a candidate, well it's still a long time until they have to actually decide.
 
There's only a 10% no specified preference, based on those numbers? That doesn't seem especially large.

If you mean those that aren't completely committed to a candidate, well it's still a long time until they have to actually decide.


I was referring to the bolded. I suppose 'uncertain' voters would have been more appropriate.

Anyway, this is a poll for Democratic Primary voters, right? Super Tuesday isn't THAT far away at this point, and I would have figured that, by now, those voters would know which candidate they'd definitely want as the nominee.

I could understand if this was a poll of random Americans, but these people would know the pros/cons of the candidates by this point. Just seems bizarre to me that they're not sure about their decision, considering that Hillary is the front runner by a wide margin.
 

HylianTom

Banned
(cross-posting this from OT)
Here's a really neat demographic vote calculator that LatinoDecisions has put on its website:
http://www.latinodecisions.com/2016-calculator/

Try playing around with the percentage of Latino vote, white vote, etc. Pretty fun!

And I like to keep these graphs in mind when using it to calculate the GOP's total vote:
imrs.php

imrs.php
(NeoXChaos posted them in the last thread. They loom large in my mind.)
 
I was referring to the bolded. I suppose 'uncertain' voters would have been more appropriate.

Anyway, this is a poll for Democratic Primary voters, right? Super Tuesday isn't THAT far away at this point, and I would have figured that, by now, those voters would know which candidate they'd definitely want as the nominee.

I could understand if this was a poll of random Americans, but these people would know the pros/cons of the candidates by this point. Just seems bizarre to me that they're not sure about their decision, considering that Hillary is the front runner by a wide margin.

My take on it is that people probably are more firm in their selection than they report, especially when it comes to Hillary. There aren't undecideds (on the Democratic side) when it comes to her. You know her. You love her. You hate her. You respect her. You want to arrest her. It's all baked in. I think that people are willing to give Bernie benefit of the doubt by saying there's potentially something that could sway them to his camp. However, he also has a larger percentage that would jump ship if given a reason to do so. I'd like to think that if someone takes the time to answer a poll they're moderately firm in their support of who they say they want.

Like I've said before, this feels very, very similar to the 2000 Dem Primary. Hillary's at 50-60%. Sanders is at 25-33%. I don't see anything major shaking up the race at this point.

I had posted some numbers a few weeks ago showing how I came to that conclusion. I didn't save them on my laptop, and I'm at the hospital while my mom has surgery or I'd post them again.

Damn at those numbers. The GOP has to be terrified about losing Virginia. They simply must make inroads elsewhere if they want to win a national election again. They need to stop bleeding support. I mean, they' seem to prefer to double down on trickle down and overt racism....so maybe they don't want to win, really.
 
My take on it is that people probably are more firm in their selection than they report, especially when it comes to Hillary. There aren't undecideds (on the Democratic side) when it comes to her. You know her. You love her. You hate her. You respect her. You want to arrest her. It's all baked in. I think that people are willing to give Bernie benefit of the doubt by saying there's potentially something that could sway them to his camp. However, he also has a larger percentage that would jump ship if given a reason to do so. I'd like to think that if someone takes the time to answer a poll they're moderately firm in their support of who they say they want.

Like I've said before, this feels very, very similar to the 2000 Dem Primary. Hillary's at 50-60%. Sanders is at 25-33%. I don't see anything major shaking up the race at this point.

I had posted some numbers a few weeks ago showing how I came to that conclusion. I didn't save them on my laptop, and I'm at the hospital while my mom has surgery or I'd post them again.

Sounds plausible.

Anyway, I'm not sure how serious the surgery is, but I wish your mom a speedy recovery. Best of luck!
 
So what was going on with Cruz talking positively about Calvin Coolidge's term as president regarding economic policy? It seems...odd...to put the economy of the early 1920s in a good light considering...you know.

From what I remember from watching Glenn Beck years ago, he was Reagan before Reagan, touting free market economics and low taxes, and the country prospered for it, unlike that evil progressive Woodrow Wilson, who lied about promising to lower taxes after WWI.
 
Explained in-universe that the ones that didn't want to become Very Intelligent Responsible Pet Owners simply sublimed to a higher plane of existence and that was that. Which is what happens to most AI's. The really hard part was, apparently, creating a legit AI that doesn't do that.

As for the rest, the minds explain that well, they're Very Clever Indeed, so they're simply very capable at manipulating organics into accepting their rule. Fairly consistent in universe. Problem is when they run into people like the Affront.

I quite loved how Banks dealt with beings of very high intellect and near endless talents. Always came back to "because they're horrendously bored".

Aw heck I missed that explanation. I need to pick up The State of the Art, as that's the only book I haven't read yet. Do you remember in what book that transition was explained?

What I always got a kick out of were the little reminders that humans were pets. In Excession one of the main human characters, who you think is going to have some level agency, is only in the story as a bargaining chip to convince one of the AIs to play ball. I love it.
 

Tarkus

Member
From what I remember from watching Glenn Beck years ago, he was Reagan before Reagan, touting free market economics and low taxes, and the country prospered for it, unlike that evil progressive Woodrow Wilson, who lied about promising to lower taxes after WWI.
Did Beck cry with an extreme close-up shot when he explained this? I kinda miss Beck's show at 5:00 for the lulz.
 
I think Kasich will drop out within the next few weeks.

Can't see him making it to the next debate - and if he's still in the race by then I don't think he'll make the main debate.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
@Taniel
John Bel Edwards way, way ahead of David Vitter in a #LAGov poll yet again—52% to 38%, says MRI: http://blogs.theadvocate.com/politi...-but-prostitute-and-patriots-spot-didnt-help/ …

@Taniel
and MRI *models* black turnout to be just 26% (lower than in any recent election), so if anything it's underplaying Edwards in that way.

They had JBE up 20 beforehand, which was probably not a reflection of where the race was at that time.

I want to #BELieve
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
I live in NYC, and received two robocalls from Carson the past month. What the hell? Why is he targeting NY?

Primaries are like the reverse of the electoral college. The less of a hold the party has in a state, the more each voter counts towards getting delegates.
 

teiresias

Member
Good discussion (well the little I heard was) on Diane Rehm this morning on NPR about the court decision about Obama's immigration executive order. Of particular note is how a possible appeal to the Supreme Court would put that decision and its implications for immigration right smack in the middle of election season. Definitely won't be a good look for the GOP moving into the general.

I swear, the Republicans are doing everything they can to completely screw themselves completely from a demographics perspective for a generation if not generations.
 
Good discussion (well the little I heard was) on Diane Rehm this morning on NPR about the court decision about Obama's immigration executive order. Of particular note is how a possible appeal to the Supreme Court would put that decision and its implications for immigration right smack in the middle of election season. Definitely won't be a good look for the GOP moving into the general.

I swear, the Republicans are doing everything they can to completely screw themselves completely from a demographics perspective for a generation if not generations.



But this has been their world view for decades. We can't expect them to change over night. Their problem is, there just aren't enough angry white people out there to drag them across the finish line. They've created this base that must be appeased at all times. They're terrified of saying or doing something that's going to harm them with this group. The only way for them to survive is to piss a few of them off. Their base needs some tough love. The only one in the clown car who would give it to them is Kasich. They won't let him give them their medicine, though. (He's still bat shit insane on some things, but he's at least not a complete "moran.")

Even though I am a liberal, I want the GOP to not be so freaking dysfunctional. I can't stand living in absolute terror every 4 years that one of their more insane members makes it to the White House. I really can't. I mean, Daddy Bush wouldn't have been my choice, but at least we knew he wouldn't drive us off a freakin' cliff. This current group of GOPPERS would drive us off the cliff, while blaming the guy they've tied up in the trunk. It's just....it is terrifying.
 
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