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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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B

Basileus777

Member
Abinash117 said:
GOP leaders: National security will end Carson and Trump campaigns


Looks like the GOP knows they lost this. : (
Click to expand...
Longtime Republicans don’t have nearly as clear a theory of Trump’s downfall.

“It’s always easier to predict how this ends up than how [we] get there,” said Stuart Stevens, who was Mitt Romney’s chief strategist. But as for Trump, “I don’t think he wins a single primary… I think he gets out.”
Click to expand...
“I’m not too worried about it,” said Charlie Black, another longtime adviser to Republican presidents and presidential campaigns. “Trump’s been losing a little steam since Labor Day, when he was up around 30, now he’s in the low 20s. Carson is as high as he’ll ever be, just because he’s beginning to demonstrate he doesn’t have real good knowledge of the issues. Either of them might win a primary or something, but that’s it.”
Click to expand...
Look at this desperate reaching. Hell, they can't even read polls right.
 
R

Retromelon

Member
im bummed for sure. I thought maybe he could make it to Iowa and eke out a surprise 3rd or fourth and gain some traction.. that was the dream
im going to go eat my shrimp flavor cup of noodles now and try to fight the tears. Hillary2016, you guys won
 
D

dramatis

Member
Retromelon said:
im bummed for sure. I thought maybe he could make it to Iowa and eke out a surprise 3rd or fourth and gain some traction.. that was the dream
im going to go eat my shrimp flavor cup of noodles now and try to fight the tears. Hillary2016, you guys won
Click to expand...
Someone ought to make you an avatar of a cup of noodles with "Make America Great Again" as the label on the cup

Make it classy and elegant
 
O

Owzers

Member
when Trump said " I will bomb the shit out of ISIS" at a rally Monday, i think that's all the foreign policy primary voters need. *shrug*, the two options below them are first term senators who annoy me, one of which calls Putin a gangsta whereas Trump will be great friends with Putin.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
In 5 years the Republican establishment will consist of people like Cruz and today's establishment will have gone the way of Arlen Specter and Chris Shays.
 
K

kess

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Muslim students at my university seem to be avoiding class this week.

So everything's fine, no fear from hate speech here.

Fucking hell, even the Jewish refugee hate tropes in the 1930s were exactly the same as the Syrian refugee hate tropes today:

CUEFy78XAAA3hzi.jpg
Click to expand...

Although this book concerns itself more with the Warner Brothers studio, there's plenty of stuff worth reading in it. The age-old "Jewish Bolshevism" trope was picked up by certain isolationists, survived the war, and arguably culminated in the 50s. I'm always reminded of that term whenever I hear "Islamofascist."
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Basileus777 said:
Look at this desperate reaching. Hell, they can't even read polls right.
Click to expand...
What did you expect? Their jobs are literally on the line here. They can't say "Well Jeb, you're fucked. Time to go home." They have to keep reaching in order make money and fly around different places and have a good time.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
U

User 463088

Banned
Makai said:
Carson campaign rejects foreign policy advisor story
Click to expand...

How are these people legitimately getting any support at all!? I just...I can't fathom it. This is not some local council race or something. This is the Presidency of the United States. An iota of intelligence is not too much to ask, is it?

I just want Trump to get the nomination. The GOP would have no control over that entire freak show. You know, at some point during one of the debates, he'd just lose it completely when Hillary schooled him on something. My most fervent hope would be that he says something so completely sexist that the entire GOP brand is destroyed for that cycle. Her coattails. Oh, lord above, her coattails....
 
M

Makai

Member
adam387 said:
I just want Trump to get the nomination. The GOP would have no control over that entire freak show. You know, at some point during one of the debates, he'd just lose it completely when Hillary schooled him on something. My most fervent hope would be that he says something so completely sexist that the entire GOP brand is destroyed for that cycle. Her coattails. Oh, lord above, her coattails....
Click to expand...
IMG_1712-e1429298407156.jpg
 
C

Cerium

Member
Obama went in

President Barack Obama is taking an even harsher tone against governors and lawmakers who want to stop the U.S. resettlement of Syrian refugees, blasting them for being "scared of widows and orphans" while playing into the hands of the Islamic State terrorist group.

"We are not well served when, in response to a terrorist attack, we descend into fear and panic. We don't make good decisions if its based on hysteria or an exaggeration of risks," Obama said while visiting the Philippines for an economic summit. "I cannot think of a more potent recruitment tool for ISIL than some of the rhetoric that's been coming out of here during the course of this debate."

"ISIL seeks to exploit the idea that there is a war between Islam and the West," he continued. "And when you start seeing individuals in positions of responsibility suggesting that Christians are more worthy of protection than Muslims are in a war-torn land, that feeds the ISIL narrative. It's counterproductive, and it needs to stop."

Obama has repeatedly said ensuring the safety of U.S. citizens remains a top priority when it comes to vetting those who enter the country. But he appears unusually frustrated by the fury over refugees who face terror and destruction in Syria. Earlier this week he expressed anger over the idea of admitting refugees based on religion — as proposed by GOP presidential hopefuls Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz, among others — and he reiterated that sentiment in his latest comments in Manila, where it was Wednesday morning.

"When individuals say we should have a religious test and that only Christians, proven Christians should be admitted, that's offensive," he said.

The president also noted that many of the same people who have suggested stopping refugees from coming to the United States also claim they themselves are tough enough to stare down Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"Apparently they're scared of widows and orphans coming into the United States of America as part of our tradition of compassion," Obama said. "At first they were worried about the press being too tough on them in during debates. Now they're worried about three-year-old orphans. That doesn't sound very tough to me."
Click to expand...
 
M

Makai

Member
Trump on Pulp Fiction - “My favorite part is when Sam has his gun out in the diner and he tells the guy to tell his girlfriend to shut up. Tell that bitch to be cool. Say: 'Bitch be cool.' I love those lines.” -- TrumpNation: The Art of Being The Donald, 2005
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
adam387 said:
The only thing that gets me is that we Democrats used to pride ourselves as being based in the "reality based community." That baby's done been thrown out the bathwater. We've see people unskew polls, ignore everything because of this one candidate. It's all the things we used to ridicule the die hard Ron Paul/Rmoneybots for doing. Now some of us do it. (And I'm not calling anyone out here. I see it on a lot of progressive blogs.)
Click to expand...

it's weird because 2008 was characterized by a lot of talk on the right of a "cult of personality" surrounding Obama just because Democrats were much more enthusiastic about his candidacy than the GOP base was about McCain's

meanwhile 8 years later there actually *is* one (or something approximating one) in the Democratic Party primary and there's nary a peep
 
B

Basileus777

Member
eBay Huckster said:
it's weird because 2008 was characterized by a lot of talk on the right of a "cult of personality" surrounding Obama just because Democrats were much more enthusiastic about his candidacy than the GOP base was about McCain's

meanwhile 8 years later there actually *is* one (or something approximating one) in the Democratic Party primary and there's nary a peep
Click to expand...
Because a small group of people on the internet doesn't constitute a cult of personality. And for the most part what Bernie supporters do isn't that different from what what most supporters of losing candidates do. I know a lot of Bernie supporters are annoying and naive, but the significance of it all is going to some hyperbolic places here.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
eBay Huckster said:
it's weird because 2008 was characterized by a lot of talk on the right of a "cult of personality" surrounding Obama just because Democrats were much more enthusiastic about his candidacy than the GOP base was about McCain's

meanwhile 8 years later there actually *is* one (or something approximating one) in the Democratic Party primary and there's nary a peep
Click to expand...

Basileus777 said:
Because a small group of people on the internet doesn't constitute a cult of personality. And for the most part what Bernie supporters do isn't that different from what what most supporters of losing candidates do. I know a lot of Bernie supporters are annoying and naive, but the significance of it all is going to some hyperbolic places here.
Click to expand...

I remember I tried all the mental loopholes I could come up with in 2004 to explain how Kerry could win. The biggest reason he couldn't was because of how inept his campaign was...thanks to......any guesses? : cough Devine cough :

I think the Bernie thing is fueled, in part, by Clinton Derangement Syndrome. Plus, he does have quite a few fanboys/girls. The two combined together make for this....whatever it is. It's really fascinating to watch.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
I can see why Republicans decided to make the fight about refugees. Even they are aware the argument for significant ground troops is a difficult debate so they picked the easier issue.

I've always wondered if the DNC or RNC is constantly polling stuff like this and advising the party on how to steer their narrative.
 
M

Makai

Member
I read an interesting take on Jindal's dropout. A lot of people expected governors to do well because they have experience but can claim to be Washington outsiders. Nope. All of the dropouts have been governors (Perry, Walker, Jindal) and more are on the way (Jeb, Huck, Christie, Kasich, Pataki, Gilmore). The people at the top have no experience at all and the second tier candidates are first-term senators.
 
S

SpeedySwaf

Member
Makai said:
I read an interesting take on Jindal's dropout. A lot of people expected governors to do well because they have experience but can claim to be Washington outsiders. Nope. All of the dropouts have been governors (Perry, Walker, Jindal) and more are on the way (Jeb, Huck, Christie, Kasich, Pataki, Gilmore). The people at the top have no experience at all and the second tier candidates are first-term senators.
Click to expand...
It kinda feels like the GOP voting base want people who don't have experience in government, to a certain degree. They've had the "government is bad" narrative beaten into their heads so much they're now inherently distrustful of anyone who's been in the game for a while.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Makai said:
Carson campaign rejects foreign policy advisor story
Click to expand...
Just to note, the old guy they're talking about is the NYT source, not Carson. I admit I was confused initially.

They also deny he's anything other than a guy who talked to Carson once or twice.

Carson has also denied that he's a gentleman what with wanting to bash his mom in the head with a hammer and all.


Lucky Forward said:
Gawker to Retool as Politics Site
Click to expand...
You left out the best parts:
The site, wrote Gawker’s founder, Nick Denton, “will ride the circus of the 2016 campaign cycle, seizing the opportunity to reorient its editorial scope on political news, commentary and satire.”

Politics, writ large, “has provided the scene for some of Gawker’s most recognized editorial scoops,” he said, citing reporting on Mayor Rob Ford of Toronto smoking crack cocaine, and the power of Fox News.

“Is there any doubt,” he wrote, “that the 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign, a contest between reality-defying fabulists and the last representatives of two exhausted political dynasties will provide rich new opportunities for sensation and satire?”

In an interview, Alex Pareene, Gawker.com’s editor, said that he wanted to define politics broadly, and that it would include coverage of big business, the media and culture when appropriate.

“There is going to be a lot of campaign coverage, because this campaign is great and a dream for any writer. But we’re not going to become Real Clear Politics,” he said, referring to a political news site.

“There will be a sort of satirical tone and satirical approach to reporting real news,” he said, citing John Oliver, whose HBO show combines aggregation, reporting and humor.

Gawker, Mr. Pareene said, will be hiring editors, and at least one political reporter. In an email to the company’s staff, John Cook, the executive editor of Gawker Media, said that two reporters, Allie Jones and Sam Biddle, would head out on the campaign trail, while Ashley Feinberg will “obsessively monitor the dark and hilarious lunatic fringes on the right and left.” Tom Scocca, currently executive features editor, will begin writing a column, as will Mr. Pareene.

Gawker, Mr. Cook wrote, “will take a ‘Daily Show’ approach to covering the ever-intensifying culture wars, documenting, satirizing and reporting on the ways that political disputes are refracted in every aspect of our popular culture.”
Click to expand...
rip in peace Vox
 
M

Maledict

Member
I think we are all missing the important bit about Bobby Jindall dropping out of the race.

When's the next Colbert Hungry for Power games skit coming?
 
D

danm999

Member
Makai said:
I read an interesting take on Jindal's dropout. A lot of people expected governors to do well because they have experience but can claim to be Washington outsiders. Nope. All of the dropouts have been governors (Perry, Walker, Jindal) and more are on the way (Jeb, Huck, Christie, Kasich, Pataki, Gilmore). The people at the top have no experience at all and the second tier candidates are first-term senators.
Click to expand...

It doesn't help they all sound the goddamn same.

They all seem to orbit the same two or three talking points about their gubernatorial record and pick some bizarre statistic about how they're the only one on stage who achieved that.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Makai said:
I read an interesting take on Jindal's dropout. A lot of people expected governors to do well because they have experience but can claim to be Washington outsiders. Nope. All of the dropouts have been governors (Perry, Walker, Jindal) and more are on the way (Jeb, Huck, Christie, Kasich, Pataki, Gilmore). The people at the top have no experience at all and the second tier candidates are first-term senators.
Click to expand...
To note a few things here that either support or don't support your post:
-Jeb?!? hasn't been in elected office for eight years.
-Jim GILMORE hasn't been in elected office for 13 years raised less than $200,000 while polling under 1% in 2008 and then got vaporized by Mark Warner by 32 points.
-Huckabee hasn't been in elected office for eight years.
-John Kasich served in the House for 18 years.
-Pataki hasn't been in elected office for nine years.
-Jindal had served two terms in the House.

At the other end of the spectrum in our less than one percenters, Rick Santorum served 16 years in Congress. And Lindsey Graham has been in Congress for 20 years.

Let's go back four years:
-Romney, four years as Governor. (Six years prior.)
-Ron Paul, 23 years in the House.
-Gingrich, 20 years in the House. (Twelve years prior.)
-Santorum, 16 years in Congress. (Six years prior.)
-Roemer, four years as Governor. (Twenty years prior.)
-Perry, eight years as Governor, a few weeks doped up on painkillers and...oops.
-Huntsman, three years as Governor.
-Bachmann, four years in the House.
-Gary Johnson, eight years as Governor. (Five years prior.)
-McCotter, nine years in the House.
-Pawlenty, five years as Governor.

And another four:
-McCain, 15 years in Congress.
-Rudy, 9/11, eight years, 9/11, as Mayor, 9/11 of NYC. (9/11)
-Duncan Hunter, 27 years in the House.
-Huckabee, 11 years as Governor.
-Ron Paul, 19 years in the House.
-Romney, four years as Governor.
-Alan Keyes, 20+ years as batshit crazy.
-Fred Thompson, eight years as Senator, five years as DA of NYC, one firing not because she's a lesbian.
-Sam Brownback, 13 years in Congress.
-Jim Gilmore, four years as Governor. (Six years prior.)
-Tom Tancredo, nine years in the House.
-Tommy Thompson, 14 years as a Governor. Four years as Secretary of HHS.

Let's flop over the Democratic race:
-Obama, three years as Senator.
-Biden, 25 years as Senator.
-Clinton, seven years as Senator, 15 years since murdering Vince Foster.
-Dodd, 23 years in Congress.
-John Edwards, six years in the Senate.
-Gravel, 12 years in the Senate. (17 years prior.)
-Kucinich, 11 years in the House. Two "wonderful" years as Mayor of Cleveland.
-Richardson, 14 years in the House, 3 years as Secretary of Energy, five years as Governor.
-Bayh, eight years as Governor, nine years as Senator.
-Vilsack, eight years as Governor.

And 2004 just because the experience is kinda insane:
-Kerry, 19 years in the Senate.
-Dean, 12 years as a Governor.
-Gephardt, 27 years in the House.
-Lieberman, 15 years in the Senate.
-Al Sharpton, 17 years since Tawana Brawley.
-Wesley Clark, 34 years in the Army, 15 as a General of various stars.
-Bob Graham, eight years as Governor, 17 years as Senator and 25 years keeping a diary.
-Carol Moseley Braun, six years as Senator.
 
M

Makai

Member
Bravo on pumping that out so quickly. Any conclusions?

You remembered Thaddeus McCotter ran in 2012 but forgot Santorum and Cain?
 
M

Makai

Member
In the past races at least one state was carried by a governor. Will any of these guys be able to say the same?

Jeb Bush
Mike Huckabee
Chris Christie
John Kasich
Bobby Jindal
Jim Gilmore
George Pataki

Nawwwww. What about this cohort?

Marco Rubio
Ted Cruz
Rand Paul
Rick Santorum
Lindsey Graham

Maybe. What about the guys who have done fuck all?

Donald Trump
Ben Carson
Carly Fiorina

50 ± 1
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
I left out Cain because of no elected experience.

Might as well go all the way back.

I think it's hard to discern any clear pattern as to how candidates benefit.

-George W. Bush, five years as Governor.
-McCain, nine years in Congress.
-Hatch, 23 years in Congress.
-Lamar!, eight years as Governor, two as Secretary of Education.
-Dole, four years as Sec of Transportation, two as Sec of Labor.
-Kasich, 17 years in the House.
-Quayle, 12 years in Congress, four as VP.
-Smith, 15 years in Congress.
-Keyes
-Gary Bauer
-Steve Forbes
-Cain

-Al Gore, 16 years in Congress, eight as VP.
-Bradley, 18 years in the Senate.

-Bob Dole, 35 years in Congress.
-Lamar!, eight years as Governor, two as Secretary of Education.
-Dornan, 19 years in the House.
-Gramm, 17 years in Congress.
-Lugar, 19 years in the Senate.
-Specter, 15 years in the Senate.
-Wilson, eight years in the Senate, five years as Governor.
-Pat Buchanan
-Keyes
-Forbes

-Clinton, 11 years as Governor.
-Brown, eight years as Governor. (9 years prior.)
-Kerrey, four years as Governor, three as Senator.
-Harkin, 17 years in Congress.
-Tsongas, ten years in Congress.
-McCarthy, 22 years in Congress. (21 years prior.)
-Wilder, two years as Governor.

-Bush, four years in Congress, one year as CIA director, eight years as VP.
-Rumsfeld, six years in the House, two as Sec. of Defense.
-Baker, 18 years in the Senate.
-Stassen, four years as Governor. (45 years prior.)
-Laxalt, four years as Governor, 13 years as Senator.
-Haig, 32 years in the Army, reaching four star General, NATO Supreme Commander, one and half years as Sec. of State.
-du Pont, six years in the House, eight years as Governor.
-Kemp, 17 years in the House.
-Dole, 27 years in Congress.
-Pat Robertson

-Dukakis, nine years as Governor.
-Biden, 15 years as Senator.
-Schroeder, 15 years in the House.
-Traficant, three years in the House.
-Babbit, nine years as Governor.
-Hart, 12 years as Senator.
-Simon, 13 years in Congress.
-Gephardt, 11 years in the House.
-Gore, 11 years in Congress.
-Jesse Jackson

-Mondale, 12 years as Senator, four as VP.
-Hart, eight years as Senator.
-Glenn, ten years as Senator.
-McGovern, 22 years in Congress.
-Askew, eight years as Governor.
-Cranston, 15 years as Senator.
-Hollings, four years as Governor, 18 years as Senator.
-Jackson

-Reagan, eight years as Governor.
-Anderson, 19 years in the House.
-Baker, 13 years in the Senate.
-Bush, four years in Congress, one year as CIA director.
-Connally, six years as Governor, one and a half as Sec. of Treasury.
-Crane, 11 years in the House.
-Dole, 19 years in Congress.
-Stassen, four years as Governor. (37 years prior.)
-Pressler, four years in the House, one as Senator.
-Weicker, two years in the House, nine as Senator.

-Carter, four years as Governor, four years as President
-Kennedy, 18 years as Senator.
-Brown, five years as Governor.
-Finch, four years as Governor.

-Ford, 24 years in the House, one year as VP, two years as President.
-Reagan, eight years as Governor.

-Carter, four years as Governor.
-Udall, 15 years in the House.
-Jerry Brown, one year as Governor. (lol)
-Bayh. 13 years in Senate.
-Bentsen,11 years in Congress.
-Byrd, 23 years in Congress.
-Church, 19 years in Congress.
-Fred Harris, eight years in the Senate.
-Scoop Jackson, 35 years in Congress.
-George Wallace, ten years as Governor.
-Sanford, four years as Governor. (11 years prior.)
-Mondale, 12 years as Senator.
-Ellen McCormack, housewife.
-Sargent Shriver
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
benjipwns said:
I left out Cain because of no elected experience.

Might as well go all the way back.

I think it's hard to discern any clear pattern as to how candidates benefit.
Click to expand...

Did all of those rush straight to governor/congress or are you disregarding any public office under those levels? (aside from rudy and the other dude)
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
As for nominees with no Congressional/statewide elected experience or military experience.

1944* GOP - Thomas E. Dewey (one year as Governor, but was GOP frontrunner in 1940 as DA of New York County)
1940 GOP - Wendell Willkie
1904 DEM - Alton B. Parker (Chief Judge of NY Court of Appeals)

If you discount cabinet and military experience you get a lot more.
1952 GOP - Dwight Eisenhower
1928 GOP - Herbert Hoover ("for six years that man has given me unsolicited advice—all of it bad")
1908 GOP - William H. Taft
1880 DEM - Winfield S. Hancock
1868 GOP - Ulysses S. Grant
1864 DEM - George McClellan
1852 WHIG - Winfield Scott
1848 WHIG - Zachary Taylor
1832 AMAS - William Wirt
1808 FED - Charles C. Pinckney
1804 FED - Charles C. Pinckney
1789 IND - George Washington
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Coriolanus said:
Did all of those rush straight to governor/congress or are you disregarding any public office under those levels? (aside from rudy and the other dude)
Click to expand...
I did disregard that. There's a decent number of them that went from just one prior elected office though. Not counting if they ran and lost:

From 2012: Romney, Paul, Gingrich, Santorum, Roemer, Huntsman, Cain, and Johnson all never held elected office before the ones listed. (Huntsman did serve as an ambassador.)

From 2008 GOP: McCain, Hunter, Huckabee* (Lt. Gov which is how he got to be Governor in the first place), Fred Thompson, Brownback.
From 2008 DEM: Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Richardson.

From 2004 GOP: George W. Bush
From 2004 DEM: Edwards

From 2000 GOP: Bush, McCain, Hatch, Alexander, Quayle, Smith
From 2000 DEM: Gore, Bradley

Candidates who never held elected office:
From 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000 GOP: Keyes, Forbes, Baeur, Buchanan, Elizabeth Dole, Cain. Pat Robertson, Haig
From 1976, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000 DEM: Lyndon LaRouche, Jesse Jackson, Sargent Shriver
From 1992, 1996: Ross Perot

2000 is kinda crazy at how many candidates went straight to a Governorship, Congress or the Cabinet.

Joe Biden went straight from the New Castle County Council to the Senate.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Anyway to get away from my insane historical dumps. New WBUR poll for NH:
Trump - 23%
Carson - 13%
Rubio - 13%
Cruz - 8%
Jeb - 7%
Kasich - 7%
Christie - 6%
Paul - 5%
Fiorina - 4%
Graham - 2%
Jindal (rip in peace) - 1%
Pataki - 1%
Huckabee - 1%
Sanoturm - 1%
Gilmore - 0%
Click to expand...

Would you like to see Mitt Romney join the race and run for President in 2016 as well?
Yes 34%
No 64%
Click to expand...

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Republican Party leaders are handling their job? Order
rotated.
Approve 24%
Disapprove 64%
Click to expand...

Which of the following would you prefer for our next President? Order rotated.
Somewhat from outside the political
establishment 46%
Somewhat with experience in elected office 36%
Both / neither / depends (not read) 13%
Click to expand...

Estimates suggest between 8 and 12 million people are living in the United States illegally. Which one
statement comes closest to what you think? Order rotated.
We should create a pathway to citizenship for
these people 34%
We should grant these people legal status so
they can live and work here, but not become
citizens 21%
We should find and deport people who have
come to this country illegally 42%
Click to expand...

Do you think the amount the U.S. currently spends on the military is ____________? Order rotated.
Too high 14%
Too low 54%
About right 27%

In terms of the Middle East, do you think the next President should ______________? Order rotated.
Remove as many troops as possible from the
region
22%
Keep troop levels about where they are 28%
Send more troops to the region 38%
Click to expand...
 
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