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[thefro]

The problem for the Republican establishment is that they've convinced Republican primary voters that things are awful... ergo the establishment candidates get no credit from the voters. Congress obviously has done jack squat and governors like Jindal and Christie are really unpopular in their own states.

That's why you see the attraction to Trump & Carson.

 

[B-Dubs]

Carson campaign rejects foreign policy advisor story

This entire election is better than I could ever have hoped for.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

538 updated Trump's placement in their faction graph.

I love how Christie is the GOP's moderate wing when he's calling for possible war with Russia and is *this close* to saying the N-word in all of his interviews and speeches over the last month.

 

[zero shift]

How is a Democratic governor winning Louisiana votes in a land slide? (might be related to my question below)

proof voters are morons:
http://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article45093165.html


edit: This should be a lesson to Dems.

1. Medicaid/Obamacare is not driving these votes.

2. What is driving these votes are the social policies of this country moving left and it's a protest vote.

I wonder what Democrats can do to get these poor rural white voters. They could obviously appeal to them socially, but by doing that they will hamstring votes with their base.

 

[VendettaRed07]

How can he make America great again if he can't even make SNL great again?

 

[Bronx-Man]

How can he make America great again if he can't even make SNL great again?

SNL was filled with a bunch of losers. Filled with a bunch of 17 year old losers that he had to deal with. Donald Trump isn't a loser, he's a man and he's a winner. He's a man that's gonna turn America into a country of winners again.

 

[B-Dubs]

How can he make America great again if he can't even make SNL great again?

No one can make SNL great again, you're asking for too much.

 

[benjipwns]

How is a Democratic governor winning Louisiana votes in a land slide? (might be related to my question below)

The Republican candidate asks his regular prostitute of three years to get an abortion for their child.

 

[Cheebo]

Carson took a hit in NH, bad press might have actually worked on a GOP candidate for once. Is Rubio the first establishment candidate to poll at #2 in one of the early states since the rise of Trump and Carson?

 

[B-Dubs]

The Republican candidate asks his regular prostitute of three years to get an abortion for their child.

I love how it's impossible to tell the difference between a joke post and a real post these days, it's the golden age of political comedy.

 

[benjipwns]

Hot Quinnipac Colorado Action:

Colorado Republican Presidential	Carson 25, Rubio 19, Trump 17, Cruz 14, Fiorina 5, Paul 3, Bush 2, Kasich 1, Huckabee 1, Christie 1, Jindal 1, Santorum 0, Pataki 0, Graham 0		Carson +6
Colorado: Trump vs. Clinton		Trump 48, Clinton 37		Trump +11
Colorado: Carson vs. Clinton		Carson 52, Clinton 38		Carson +14
Colorado: Rubio vs. Clinton		Rubio 52, Clinton 36		Rubio +16
Colorado: Cruz vs. Clinton		Cruz 51, Clinton 38		Cruz +13
Colorado: Trump vs. Sanders		Trump 46, Sanders 44		Trump +2
Colorado: Carson vs. Sanders		Carson 52, Sanders 40		Carson +12
Colorado: Rubio vs. Sanders		Rubio 52, Sanders 39		Rubio +13
Colorado: Cruz vs. Sanders		Cruz 49, Sanders 42		Cruz +7

More evidence that Clinton's campaign is in a death-spiral.

Carson took a hit in NH, bad press might have actually worked on a GOP candidate for once. Is Rubio the first establishment candidate to poll at #2 in one of the early states since the rise of Trump and Carson?

In a single poll, or aggregates? Fiorina had two weeks in October where her aggregate was above Carson in NH.

 

[Diablos]

It's funny how kneejerk the GOP is about refugees. Do I see a potential threat? Sure. I certainly think we should require a lot of extra discretion when it comes to who we are and are not allowing to come here particularly in light of recent events.

But frankly I'm just as afraid of getting shot by a fellow American who has lost their mind and has access to a firearm. It happens everywhere now. It doesn't matter who you are, where you live, what you're doing.

Nearly 300 if not more people have been murdered in Baltimore so far this year. That's more than in Paris, and I realize the circumstances are different as it is more confined per se, but let's stop acting like we never had to worry about succumbing to senseless violence before these attacks.

 

[B-Dubs]

In a single poll, or aggregates? Fiorina had two weeks in October where her aggregate was above Carson in NH.

I'm not so sure she counts as an establishment pick...

But frankly I'm just as afraid of getting shot by a fellow American who has lost their mind and has access to a firearm. It happens everywhere now. It doesn't matter who you are, where you live, what you're doing.

Honestly, if I was going to be afraid of something this is what I'd be afraid of. I lost a friend from HS a few years back to a stray bullet.

Refugees doing something? That's way down there on my list of scary shit. On that note, number 1 on my list is asking out that cute girl in my office. Now that's some scary shit :lol

 

[Diablos]

It's just ridiculous. Republicans won't do a single thing to combat the terrifying isolated incidents of violence that we have seen far too often in this country but they'r'e more than ready to, without hesitation or facts, arbitrarily shut out immigrants.

While a crazy kid basically acting on his own accord shooting up a black church may not be as major as Isis assaulting a major westernized city, it's no less terrifying. He sat in that church with everyone, waited towards the end and then started taking people out. It's really not any less terrifying than what happened at the Bataclan, in the bars, and outside the stadium in Paris -- it's just that less people were killed. It's still an act of terrorism as far as I'm concerned. The GOP did fuck all in response to that, but they could have. Now they want to take extreme measures against people who aren't even in this country yet... but won't do a damn thing to protect us from the crazies who are already here, who were born here, even.

Every parent in the US now has to worry about their kid and if they will fall victim to another Sandy Hook kind of attack, which, once again, Republicans had NO response for whatsoever other than fuck gun control and give everyone a gun instead which is the dumbest position I have ever seen in my life in regards to public safety.

This country's indecision, ignorance and paranoia is just as if not more harmful than some questionable refugees potentially sneaking into the country.

Besides, what happens when some white guy who joined Isis does something insane here or in Europe someday? It's bound to happen. Then what?

 

[Daniel B·]

Holy shit, Nina Turner KILLED it at this Bernie rally!

https://youtu.be/Iy3POGnetfE


Bernie needs to have her speak more often. There is a fiery conviction in her voice when she speaks!

It really is happening :").

 

[Bronx-Man]

The political revolution is finally near.

 

[QuiteWhittle]

Hot Quinnipac Colorado Action:

Colorado Republican Presidential	Carson 25, Rubio 19, Trump 17, Cruz 14, Fiorina 5, Paul 3, Bush 2, Kasich 1, Huckabee 1, Christie 1, Jindal 1, Santorum 0, Pataki 0, Graham 0		Carson +6
Colorado: Trump vs. Clinton		Trump 48, Clinton 37		Trump +11
Colorado: Carson vs. Clinton		Carson 52, Clinton 38		Carson +14
Colorado: Rubio vs. Clinton		Rubio 52, Clinton 36		Rubio +16
Colorado: Cruz vs. Clinton		Cruz 51, Clinton 38		Cruz +13
Colorado: Trump vs. Sanders		Trump 46, Sanders 44		Trump +2
Colorado: Carson vs. Sanders		Carson 52, Sanders 40		Carson +12
Colorado: Rubio vs. Sanders		Rubio 52, Sanders 39		Rubio +13
Colorado: Cruz vs. Sanders		Cruz 49, Sanders 42		Cruz +7

More evidence that Clinton's campaign is in a death-spiral.

This is to be expected after Hickenlooper lost his reelection by 10 points.

 

[Coriolanus]

Besides, what happens when some white guy who joined Isis does something insane here or in Europe someday? It's bound to happen. Then what?

If they've joined Isis, they believe in Islam, at which point the rethoric will gloss over the meaningless detail presented by skin color and focus on Islam yet again.

You simply up the islamophobia.

 

[Cheebo]

Jeeeeez those Colorado numbers.

 

[User 463088]

Does anyone know what party weight Qunnipac is using? There is no way those numbers are even close to being in the same room as accurate. Is there electorate more conservative than 2014?

 

[Cheebo]

Not many other pollsters are polling gen elections at the state level. We can't really determine whether the electorate is actually a lot more closer to 2014 than we would hope or if Quinnipac is an outlier until we actually have a range of polling from various firms.

If the electorate is closer to 2014 thanks to Bernie supporting liberals thinking Hillary isn't s real liberal I'll hate them with every fiber of my being for the rest of my days.

 

[HylianTom]

Does anyone know what party weight Qunnipac is using? There is no way those numbers are even close to being in the same room as accurate. Is there electorate more conservative than 2014?

This poll: R+5.5

For reference, 2012: D+4

The GOP's national approval numbers are in the toilet. The Democrats' national numbers are slightly better. At the risk of those who reflexively shriek "unskewer!" - I'll say I'm a teensy bit skeptical.

 

[B-Dubs]

Well, they've usually skewed a little conservative with their estimates from what I remember.

 

[Cheebo]

Well, they've usually skewed a little conservative with their estimates from what I remember.

They were pretty solid in 2008 and 2012.

Until we get more of a wide range of polling I really don't think we can completely dismiss an electorate that looks a little too much like 2014 for comfort just yet.

Liberals being apathetic happened in 2000. Another elections coming off two terms of Democrats. It can happen. I hope not, but it is not something we can completely dismiss just yet.

 

[Aaron Strife]

They were pretty solid in 2008 and 2012.

Until we get more of a wide range of polling I really don't think we can completely dismiss an electorate that looks a little too much like 2014 for comfort just yet.

Their last poll of Colorado in 2012 had Romney winning by 1, he lost by 5.

A 2014 electorate in Colorado wouldn't necessarily mean a Dem loss anyway, Gardner won but so did Hickenlooper and by a larger margin.

 

[User 463088]

Not many other pollsters are polling gen elections at the state level. We can't really determine whether the electorate is actually a lot more closer to 2014 than we would hope or if Quinnipac is an outlier until we actually have a range of polling from various firms.

If the electorate is closer to 2014 thanks to Bernie supporting liberals thinking Hillary isn't s real liberal I'll hate them with every fiber of my being for the rest of my days.

This poll: R+5.5

For reference, 2012: D+4

The GOP's national approval numbers are in the toilet. The Democrats' national numbers are slightly better. At the risk of those who reflexively shriek "unskewer!" - I'll say I'm a teensy bit skeptical.

Thanks.

I can't fathom a GE in which the country is R+5.5 regardless of who our candidate is. If that's the case, we have a heall lot more problems than Colorado.

Nate currently lists them at a B+. They've been incredibly R leaning this cycle so far.

 

[Cheebo]

In the end I am still a bit cautious that liberals like Daniel here on PoliGAF will fuck us over in the end like his ilk did in 2000.

Hillary fans who were salty in 2008 we mostly older typically reliable long time Democrat voters. The type to more easily come around in the end. Daniel and his type reminds me far far too much of the overly idealistic young liberals in 2000.

 

[benjipwns]

Sanders leads with Independents, in some cases massively, in every head to head. Hillary loses every single one.

Sanders only loses the head-to-heads because Democrats abandon him.

Only 80% of Democrats say they find Bernie Sanders favorable, only 71% think he's a strong leader, only 69% think he's qualified to be President and only 78% think he shares their values. The far-right Hillary smear machine probably has them scared of his strong centrist policies and any potential repercussions if they step out of line.

Amazing how easy it is for the far-right to scare even the center-left into voting against their own interests.

 

[Jeels]

Even with a skewed poll, how someone could vote for Trump or Carson over Hillary makes absolutely no sense.

 

[Cheebo]

More because he has attack Hillary Clinton, who is a beloved figure in the party currently. You attack Hillary you are going to be pissing off a lot of Democrats, especially women.

His nonsensically "shouting" attack on her was a pretty big dog whistle for democratic women.

That is why you see those numbers of Dems supporting him fall currently.

It's ironically very similar to the attacks Clinton did against Obama in 2008 which were dog whistle sort of comments for parts of the base. Bernie has fallen into the exact same trap Hillary did in 2008.

 

[User 463088]

In the end I am still a bit cautious that liberals like Daniel here on PoliGAF will fuck us over in the end like his ilk did in 2000.

Hillary fans who were salty in 2008 we mostly older typically reliable long time Democrat voters. The type to more easily come around in the end. Daniel and his type reminds me far far too much of the overly idealistic young liberals in 2000.

As a young, salty Hillary fan in 2008, there was never a question that Obama was a Democrat. There is with Sanders. I volunteer with people who have been active in Dem politics since the 70s. There is no enthusiasm for supporting Sanders among this group, except this one lovely women who was hard core into McGovern. Sanders has often built his brand around being against the Democratic party, or at least free from it. I have to admit it takes a lot of brass to now want to pretend to get to lead it.

There have always been those dewy eyed young liberals. In 2008, though, they actually had an electable candidate, which makes all the difference. You can use that group to propel yourself into electoral successes, but, if you're a Democrat at least, you have to get the rest of us to fall in love and in line. Sanders hasn't shown an ounce of ability to do that.

I also read there's a new poll showing that a majority of Americans flat out refuse to vote for a Socialist. Full stop. Once I'm home, I'll try and find it. (It's a new one, not one of the old ones that say the same thing.) Of course, Bernie is going to give a speech about Democratic Socialism and ISIS this week. So, once we've all been properly Bernsplained, it'll all be good.

 

[User 406]

There have always been those dewy eyed young liberals. In 2008, though, they actually had an electable candidate, which makes all the difference.

That's pretty much all they're good for, running up the score. Without their rockstar candidate, this group just whines and futzes around with third party candidates or not voting at all. Since Hillary isn't one (for them), they'll just fade after Sanders concedes. But this is the same every election, so there's no need to Diablos about it. If Bernie hadn't been in this primary, these kids wouldn't have turned out in the first place. They're basically a non-factor.

 

[Avon Barksdale]

538 updated Trump's placement in their faction graph.

Fiorina is considered establishment?

 

[QuiteWhittle]

Fiorina is considered establishment?

Yes. She shouldn't be considered an outsider just because she lost her expensive Senate race 5 years ago.

 

[noshten]

More because he has attack Hillary Clinton, who is a beloved figure in the party currently. You attack Hillary you are going to be pissing off a lot of Democrats, especially women.

His nonsensically "shouting" attack on her was a pretty big dog whistle for democratic women.

That is why you see those numbers of Dems supporting him fall currently.

It's ironically very similar to the attacks Clinton did against Obama in 2008 which were dog whistle sort of comments for parts of the base. Bernie has fallen into the exact same trap Hillary did in 2008.

What complete nonsense.
You have such a victim complex, I do wonder what it would take for you to actually put Clinton's positions into perspective and really scrutinize her. Fact of the matter is it's precisely her record Bernie is challenging her on and if she can't defend that she has no business running.

 

[Coriolanus]

I'd quite like if anyone could provide hard data that The Bern is polling like crap with voters of a female persuasion. (Insted of, y'know, in general)

Sanders has often built his brand around being against the Democratic party, or at least free from it. I have to admit it takes a lot of brass to now want to pretend to get to lead it.

The alternative was to run third party, which would have benefitted no one but republicans. To try to spin that specific choice as a negative is asinine.

In the end I am still a bit cautious that liberals like Daniel here on PoliGAF will fuck us over in the end like his ilk did in 2000.

Hillary fans who were salty in 2008 we mostly older typically reliable long time Democrat voters. The type to more easily come around in the end. Daniel and his type reminds me far far too much of the overly idealistic young liberals in 2000.

It is up to they who want the votes to make themselves desirable to the electorate. If you failed to attract them, that is solely on you. A pragmatist should have no problem whatsoever understanding this and adjusting his conduct accordingly.

By which i mean that Gore was an idiot.

 

[benjipwns]

Fiorina is considered establishment?

She was fundraising chair for the RNC in 2008, and part of the McCain campaign from 2006. McCain, Graham and the NRSC backed her in the California Senate primary over the "Tea Party" candidates. She was Vice Chairman of the NRSC of all things.

She's also been endorsed by James Woods.

 

[Makai]

I can see Trump successfully pivoting to the center in the general.

 

[User 463088]

The alternative was to run third party, which would have benefitted no one but republicans. To try to spin that specific choice as a negative is asinine.
.

There's something to be said for paying one's dues if he wanted to run for President. He could have joined the Democratic Party officially and it wouldn't have been an issue. His lack of connections within the party is a negative, both for his primary and GE prospects. The fact that he didn't run as an Independent proves he's not an idiot (and that he doesn't want to lose his position within the caucus) My point is it takes a lot of crust to build part of your career around not being a Democrat, and then pretending you want to lead the party when you decide to run for President. Unless, of course, one takes the stance that Bernie's never been in it to win and just wanted to get his ideas out there.

 

[benjipwns]

He's a smart guy, I highly doubt he thought he could beat the Clinton Machine.

 

[theprodigy]

They were pretty solid in 2008 and 2012.

Until we get more of a wide range of polling I really don't think we can completely dismiss an electorate that looks a little too much like 2014 for comfort just yet.

Liberals being apathetic happened in 2000. Another elections coming off two terms of Democrats. It can happen. I hope not, but it is not something we can completely dismiss just yet.

They were off by 6 points in 2012, they were just as off on the governor race in 2014.

"pretty solid" huh, especially considering those were their final polls

oh, and look at the Senate results in 2014, even if we literally got a midterm electorate in 2016 there will be no double digit margin in Colorado

 

[billeh]

There's something to be said for paying one's dues if he wanted to run for President. He could have joined the Democratic Party officially and it wouldn't have been an issue. His lack of connections within the party is a negative, both for his primary and GE prospects. The fact that he didn't run as an Independent proves he's not an idiot (and that he doesn't want to lose his position within the caucus) My point is it takes a lot of crust to build part of your career around not being a Democrat, and then pretending you want to lead the party when you decide to run for President. Unless, of course, one takes the stance that Bernie's never been in it to win and just wanted to get his ideas out there.

That's really all I want. I could give two shits about the Democratic Party (and the two party system in general, it's a crock), it's all about the ideas. I'll end up voting for Hillary in the general because the alternative is a disaster.

 

[benjipwns]

whoops

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

They were off by 6 points in 2012, they were just as off on the governor race in 2014.

"pretty solid" huh, especially considering those were their final polls

oh, and look at the Senate results in 2014, even if we literally got a midterm electorate in 2016 there will be no double digit margin in Colorado

Does an electorate exist out there that is more GOP heavy than 2014?

 

[Holmes]

whoops

So aside from some small little lies, whoever made this map needs a serious New England geography lesson.

 

[B-Dubs]

whoops

I shouldn't even be surprised anymore.

 

[BertramCooper]

whoops

come back connecticut

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

I wish people, left and right, would quit comparing Syrian refugees with gun rights. I see this from liberal and conservative friends.

Those two things are not similar in any way.

 

[benjipwns]

Gun rights are our only defense against Syrian refugees. Look what they've already done to New England.

And Alaska.

And the foreign nation of Hawai'i.

 

[Atomic Playboy]

whoops

New England, having finally slipped the shackles of Vermont, lunges out to sea to drive off the incoming Syrian horde.