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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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I miss the Cain Train so much. I wish he was in it, him and Trump would be legend.

GwedT4u.gif
 
So in 2011 at this point in time Rick Perry was leading, with RomBot in 2nd place. What's interesting is that Romney was always in the second place whenever flavor of the month bubbled up, and never once dipped into single digits.
Yeah that's why I don't buy "Oh Trump is just the same as every other GOP flavor of the month." Romney was always in a strong position (as in, at least second). Bush, Walker, Rubio are all in single digits. The crazy train has completely run over the establishment.
 

User1608

Banned
Ben Carson is so dumb I'd rather have Trump for president. Dude is the perfect example of absent-minded genius. Being very nice about that.
*edit*
Aaron, agreed! I don't know how well Trump will hold up months from now, but he's definitely much stronger than the joke candidates from the past.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
She will have Obama, her VP, Diamond Joe and Bill. Gore and Kerry did not have that and will have a far more favorable demographic/EC map than they had.

As for Cruz and Carson? doubtful.

Cruz was just listed in my worst-case scenario--not a likelihood.
 
I wouldn't write Cruz off, especially with a potential govt shutdown coming up. He has the grassroots money to survive, and will benefit when Carson/Trump fall out the race.

Walker doesn't look good right now but like Cruz he still has actual campaign money, not just PAC funds. He can last. I also expect him to benefit from others dropping out.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
I wouldn't write Cruz off, especially with a potential govt shutdown coming up. He has the grassroots money to survive, and will benefit when Carson/Trump fall out the race.

Walker doesn't look good right now but like Cruz he still has actual campaign money, not just PAC funds. He can last. I also expect him to benefit from others dropping out.

yeah your guy does not look good right now. My guy either.
 

HylianTom

Banned
My suspicion is that we're going to see the big shutdown fight, and Cruz and Trump - the two candidates who have built their personae around bashing GOP leadership - are going to leverage this fight for all it's worth. If we get funding for government to continue functioning - including funding for Planned Parenthood - the base is going to howl with rage.

Then, there's the added fight that's going-on in the background to unseat Boehner. If he has to rely on Democratic votes in order to retain his Speakership, that'll produce extra heat among the GOP base.. it'll be more evidence that party leadership is in cahoots with Pelosi et al.

===

And I'm still leery of Kasich or Rubio getting the nomination. Kasich virtually guarantees Ohio, and Rubio gives Florida a not-small nudge. One on the ticket is okay, but both on a ticket? Sweating time. I think either one would be smart enough to pick the other as his running mate. Securing those two states for the GOP boil the race down to 4-to-6 swing states.. a much more doable task.
 

Iolo

Member
So in 2011 at this point in time Rick Perry was leading, with RomBot in 2nd place. What's interesting is that Romney was always in the second place whenever flavor of the month bubbled up, and never once dipped into single digits.

What if Trump is the frontrunner, and every other candidate is just the flavor of the month, including Jeb?
 

teiresias

Member
What does everyone think the odds are of a government shutdown over PP? I can't believe Boehner would go through that mess again rather than just immediately getting a coalition together with Dems to keep it open.
 
I wouldn't write Cruz off, especially with a potential govt shutdown coming up. He has the grassroots money to survive, and will benefit when Carson/Trump fall out the race.

Walker doesn't look good right now but like Cruz he still has actual campaign money, not just PAC funds. He can last. I also expect him to benefit from others dropping out.

I don't know if anyone has argued that Cruz has no shot at the nomination.

But he's DOA in the general.
 
What does everyone think the odds are of a government shutdown over PP? I can't believe Boehner would go through that mess again rather than just immediately getting a coalition together with Dems to keep it open.

I guess It depends on how much he wants to remain speaker. I mean if he works with the dems.. Wouldn't the fringe in the party want him out as speaker? Would the Dems be fine with whatever replacement they throw up there?
 

HylianTom

Banned
What does everyone think the odds are of a government shutdown over PP? I can't believe Boehner would go through that mess again rather than just immediately getting a coalition together with Dems to keep it open.

This is yet another case where either outcome works. They either end-up enraging their base further into disillusionment & Trumpiness - or they satisfy the base (temporarily) and shut-down the government, harming themselves with voters in the middle.

Washington Post asked some "experts" recently. They seem to think that the odds of a shutdown are pretty good.

"Well over 50 percent"
"2-to-1"
"67 percent"
"75 percent"
 

NeoXChaos

Member
I agree with the Street Fighter reference title for the debate thread.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/16/us/politics/cnn-hopes-to-capture-candidates-combative-spirit-in-gop-debate.html

CNN, which hosts the second candidate clash here Wednesday night, is aiming to capture that same combative spirit by getting the candidates to engage with one another in person and on camera.

The effort to encourage candidate interaction differs from the approach taken in the first debate by Fox News, which relied heavily on its three accomplished moderators to ask tough questions, forcing the participants to outline their positions and explain their records, yielding only a handful of memorable exchanges between the men on stage.

“My goal is more about: Let’s draw the contrasts between the candidates, and have them fight it out over these policies, over who has the best approach to Putin, over who has the best approach to taxes, over who believes what over immigration reform,” said Jake Tapper, CNN’s chief Washington correspondent, who is moderating Wednesday’s debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. “Have them lay it all out so voters can see it.”
 

andthebeatgoeson

Junior Member
I'd wager his backstory of being one of the best neurosurgeons in our time and views on race could play up with a lot of the electorate.
Just give him time. Neurosurgeons are notorious for their 'quirks'. Not the people I would pick to represent anybody's interest. If he makes the general, he'll make us beg for Palin. The amount of dahell's posted will break the internet. His theories on taxes were extreme and nonsensical but overshadowed by the Don.
 
You guys see that GE is cutting some jobs and moving some proposed hiring offshore because of the Ex-Im expiration?

That whole thing made little sense to me. It costs virtually nothing, and everyone who is actually familiar with what it does was calling for its renewal, but it seemed to become the rallying cry for a bunch of right wing "principles".

Crony capitalism! Picking winners and losers! Get the government out of business! Etc. Truly bizarre.
 

HylianTom

Banned
On MSNBC right now: Bill Kristol apparently says he'll vote 3rd party if Trump gets the nomination.

Hysterical to see this actually happening. The GOP establishment isn't going to accept Trump. Or, I'll rephrase: enough of the establishment will refuse to accept him to the point where enough % are peeled away.

At this point, I also wonder if there are a significant number of Trumpeteers who will refuse to accept any non-Trump nominee.
 
On MSNBC right now: Bill Kristol apparently says he'll vote 3rd party if Trump gets the nomination.

Hysterical to see this actually happening. The GOP establishment isn't going to accept Trump. Or, I'll rephrase: enough of the establishment will refuse to accept him to the point where enough % are peeled away.

At this point, I also wonder if there are a significant number of Trumpeteers who will refuse to accept any non-Trump nominee.

Not only that, he suggest a Dick Cheney/Tom Cotton independent ticket lmao.
 
If the whole government shutdown thing happens again, is the option for Obama to save the day via trillion dollar coins still viable?

The shutdown is independent the debt ceiling. That will come up some time in October, though.

No way the gop pushes that one this year.

I think...
 

NeoXChaos

Member
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/scott-walker-republican-debate-213664

If you picked Walker you might be rooting for him tomorrow.

Scott Walker needs to reassure his supporters and his donors. And Wednesday’s debate might be his last chance. After a sleepy performance in the first Republican presidential debate that fueled a steep slide in his standing with voters, the governor’s team has pushed him to prepare. Round Two will be different, according to sources inside Walker’s camp. He won’t stop talking before his time is up, as he did at that first debate – a decision that left some of his top backers scratching their heads. He will be more assertive, according to people who have been briefed. And he won’t just answer the moderators’ questions but instead pivot to his personal story. And anything less could spell trouble.
 

User 406

Banned
My one true wish for the debate is for Trump to immediately start off with, "I'd like to see a show of hands from the other candidates, raise your hand if you will not support the eventual GOP nominee when it turns out to be me."
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Not only that, he suggest a Dick Cheney/Tom Cotton independent ticket lmao.

What? This can't be real.

NeoXChaos said:
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/0...-debate-213664

If you picked Walker you might be rooting for him tomorrow.

As I said earlier, he's going off tomorrow night. Going to be hilarious to watch.
 

HylianTom

Banned
This hyping by CNN about the debate is pathetic. Anderson Cooper, you're reduced to this?
This has been really fun to watch.

And I didn't realize that Trump was giving a battleship speech. I really hope someone will photoshop his head onto Cher's body at some point soon.

jul01_Cher_Missouri.png

(see? I'm helping with the whole "PoliGAF=PopGAF" thing. If it were PopGAF 1989.)
 
This has been really fun to watch.

And I didn't realize that Trump was giving a battleship speech. I really hope someone will photoshop his head onto Cher's body at some point soon.

jul01_Cher_Missouri.png

(see? I'm helping with the whole "PoliGAF=PopGAF" thing. If it were PopGAF 1989.)

I fear he's gonna say we're gonna nuke ISIS.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I guess in the sense that it canceled out the negative effects of the shutdown, sure. But I don't imagine any swing voters going into the voting booth in 2014 like "Well I was going to vote for the Democrat buuuut the Obamacare website didn't work at first so"

But that's never what we imagine. Modern elections are turnout battles, ground games, etc...not kvetching over the "independents" that CNN profiles on their website. Healthcare.gov being a complete failure was demoralizing and demotivating; it pushed people on the fringe over the edge into staying home. 2014 didn't have to be THAT bad, especially when Republicans were absolutely sucking wind after the shutdown.

Obama makes it hard for uninformed voters to be proud of him. He has throughout his entire term.

That is one reason why the Democrat Party is in terrible shape.
 

Averon

Member
lol, what personal story? dropping out of college to become a career politician? that'll go over real well. this idiot really turned out to be a dud and i can't believe i thought he had a decent chance of winning the nomination.

I remember people made the argument that Walker was always a paper tiger, and that his electoral wins, when view in context, wasn't all that impressive. When Scott Walker gets into the primary campaign he'll get exposed real quick. I guess those people were right.
 
But that's never what we imagine. Modern elections are turnout battles, ground games, etc...not kvetching over the "independents" that CNN profiles on their website. Healthcare.gov being a complete failure was demoralizing and demotivating; it pushed people on the fringe over the edge into staying home. 2014 didn't have to be THAT bad, especially when Republicans were absolutely sucking wind after the shutdown.

Obama makes it hard for uninformed voters to be proud of him. He has throughout his entire term.

That is one reason why the Democrat Party is in terrible shape.

exactly. anyone who thinks the utter disaster that was the ACA rollout didn't affect the election is smoking something serious. i mean, i love the ACA, my fiancee will be getting on a platinum plan when enrollment comes around, and i worked for the obama campaign in both 2008 and 12, and you are exactly right. it was demoralizing and worst of all, a totally unforced error that resulted in weeks, if not months, of negative coverage. it was to be honest, depressing. and yes, it completely shifted the spotlight off the government shutdown and the damage to the GOP and onto a government program that comically flopped therefore reinforcing the GOP argument in the first place: that government is too big, unwiedly, and cant be relied upon.

i still get pissed thinking about it especially because of how successful the ACA has functioned since then. it was an anchor on the entire democratic field, and frankly they deserved it.
 
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