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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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Yes, we know you are voting for the Republicans
in the general through your protest vote in a swing state.

Just remember if you vote how you say in the general in a swing state like WI that you are voting to have Obamacare dismantled and the lives of minorities and gay people to be fucked over.
Stein isn't a Republican. It doesn't matter how often you say it, it never becomes true. There's a difference between subtracting your vote for one side and adding a vote to the other side. What I'm doing is about half as damaging to the Democrats as it would be if I both removed my vote from Democrats AND added it to Republicans.
 

Cheebo

Banned
Stein isn't a Republican. It doesn't matter how often you say it, it never becomes true. There's a difference between subtracting your vote for one side and adding a vote to the other side. What I'm doing is about half as damaging to the Democrats as it would be if I both removed my vote from Democrats AND added it to Republicans.
It is still damaging the ability to win your state. This is a two party governing system whether you want it to be or not. And voting third party in a general election does nothing to prove this. Significant third party voting in 92, 96, & 00 only damaged third party voting in the next few elections due to backlash against those who voted third party and it dropped drastically afterwards.

Most Liberals who vote Dem will turn their guns on any liberals who stray from the fold and vote third party. Same with most Conservatives in the GOP would do with conservatives who stray from the fold.

It happens after 2000 with Democrats. And after 1992 with Republicans. Both cases the third party switching on both sides dramatically dropped in the following elections.

You can't look at history and tell me what you plan to do isn't a disastrous and dangerous idea. We have gone through this before in the past. The results are not pretty.


Say what you want happens, significant number of liberals vote Green and cause Hillary to lose. The result? Exact same thing as 2004. 90% of you will be scared back into the fold after 4 years of complete GOP control. Just like in 2004. The only thing you would have gotten out of this is 4 years of awful GOP policies.

You have seen enough elections. I know you know that I am right about this.
 
God I want Trump to be the nominee so bad. The level of minority turnout would be unprecedented.

I'm hoping to see an election map more similar to 2008 than 2012. I can't see Trump winning more electoral votes than Romney. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if GA and AZ become competitive. And the Democrats could ride that wave for a 54 seat majority in the Senate, and a strong turnout in the House as well.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
http://www.270towin.com/maps/5VJy7

Clinton Vs Trump Map

She takes the 5 states Obama loss by 10 and under. Anything by more than 10 is probably pushing it.

==

Anyway, our judgment is that, barring an indictment or a serious health problem, Clinton will breeze to the nomination. Yes, there’s a chance Sanders will rally and win Iowa and/or New Hampshire. As we’ve argued before, though, those two small liberal states with near lily-white participants are probably the peak of his primary season. The real question is whether Sanders will hurt her by refusing to bow out gracefully in March or April, instead insisting on carrying his challenge through June or to the convention. Sanders is more unpredictable than most.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cr...mocrats-2016-clintons-cloak-of-inevitability/
 
Isn't Morning Consult a questionable polling outfit (i.e. Zogby-tier) at this point?
Since they're new they've got no public track record so far that we can judge them on, although they did pick up some trends (e.g. Sanders getting within single digits of Clinton in NH) before anyone else. The owner is a Republican operative who also founded Paragon Insights polling that's been criticized for conducting less than transparent methedology, but Morning Consult at least regularly goes to the effort of releasing complete cross-tabs, unlike some oft-cited media polls, so I don't think they should be dismissed as Gravis/Zogby tier as of now.
 

Bronx-Man

Banned
I know he doesn't have a shot in hell of becoming president, but it's still pretty frightening to see that the closest thing America has ever had to Adolf himself is currently the GOP frontrunner.

Like, that's some shit not even Phillip K. Dick. could imagine.
 
It is still damaging the ability to win your state. This is a two party governing system whether you want it to be or not. And voting third party in a general election does nothing to prove this. Significant third party voting in 92, 96, & 00 only damaged third party voting in the next few elections due to backlash against those who voted third party and it dropped drastically afterwards.

Most Liberals who vote Dem will turn their guns on any liberals who stray from the fold and vote third party. Same with most Conservatives in the GOP would do with conservatives who stray from the fold.

It happens after 2000 with Democrats. And after 1992 with Republicans. Both cases the third party switching on both sides dramatically dropped in the following elections.

You can't look at history and tell me what you plan to do isn't a disastrous and dangerous idea. We have gone through this before in the past. The results are not pretty.


Say what you want happens, significant number of liberals vote Green and cause Hillary to lose. The result? Exact same thing as 2004. 90% of you will be scared back into the fold after 4 years of complete GOP control. Just like in 2004. The only thing you would have gotten out of this is 4 years of awful GOP policies.

You have seen enough elections. I know you know that I am right about this.
I don't think I'll ever come back to the fold unless the Democrats run a real progressive - and that will only happen with pressure from the Left, say the union-based party we almost got in the 90s, Socialist Alternative, Socialist Equality Party, ISO, Green, etc. The only reason we got Roosevelt in the form we got him was due to pressure from the Socialist and Communist parties.
 
http://www.270towin.com/maps/5VJy7

Clinton Vs Trump Map

She takes the 5 states Obama loss by 10 and under. Anything by more than 10 is probably pushing it.

I think in optimal conditions a Democrat could swing Montana.

I expect Clinton to outperform Obama if the nominee is Cruz or Carson and underperform if the nominee is an establishment choice. I honestly don't know how easily Clinton will win if Trump is the nominee.
 
I'm hoping to see an election map more similar to 2008 than 2012. I can't see Trump winning more electoral votes than Romney. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if GA and AZ become competitive. And the Democrats could ride that wave for a 54 seat majority in the Senate, and a strong turnout in the House as well.
It would be nice to see Trump push the house closer to or into Democratic control...although then the pressure is on for the Dems to DO something with that majority. Obama wouldn't even put Public Option on the table.
 
It would be nice to see Trump push the house closer to or into Democratic control...although then the pressure is on for the Dems to DO something with that majority. Obama wouldn't even put Public Option on the table.

Wasn't that because Lieberman, Baucus, Landrieu, and the rest of the blue dog Senators were threatening to filibuster any health care bill with a public option? I'm pretty sure the House version of the ACA had a public option.
 

Cheebo

Banned
It would be nice to see Trump push the house closer to or into Democratic control...although then the pressure is on for the Dems to DO something with that majority. Obama wouldn't even put Public Option on the table.
Democrat senators threatened to filibuster if he did. We would have never gotten Obamacare at all if he pushed for that. We would have got nothing.

Obama wouldn't advocate for it.
Because he needed the senate on his side. Pissing off the swing Dem senators he needed on his side by pushing for it would have been suicide. Obamacare passed by the skin of its teeth.


You can only be as liberal as your most conservative needed votes in Congress when it comes to passing laws.
 
Stein isn't a Republican. It doesn't matter how often you say it, it never becomes true. There's a difference between subtracting your vote for one side and adding a vote to the other side. What I'm doing is about half as damaging to the Democrats as it would be if I both removed my vote from Democrats AND added it to Republicans.
Do you have no fucking clue how FPTP works?

Jesus Christ.
 
Rubio: It's not just mosques we need to look at shutting down - it's cafes and diners too!

CUQ0SCTXIAAkT0T.jpg
 

dramatis

Member
I don't think I'll ever come back to the fold unless the Democrats run a real progressive - and that will only happen with pressure from the Left, say the union-based party we almost got in the 90s, Socialist Alternative, Socialist Equality Party, ISO, Green, etc. the only reason we got Roosevelt in the form we got him was due to pressure from the Socialist and Communist parties.
Look up the recent history of Canadian elections and then think about how well your strategy works. It failed in Canada three times and gave them 10 years of shit that will probably take another few years to unravel. And the latest election is also not a guarantee of future elections; it's an endless fight.

Ideological purity doesn't win elections. What you don't understand that even Bernie Sanders did when he joined the Democratic primary because the Democratic party itself has existing infrastructure, name recognition, networks, and people—things you can never hope to build on ideology alone. We did not get Roosevelt in the form we did because of multiple parties. We got Roosevelt in the form we did because he was a Democrat that built a coalition to vote for him and his party for decades, because he had to appeal to a wide range of interests. You and your narrow, selfish, self-centered ideological purity will never achieve that.

You couldn't stand the world with just a few decades of voting? Enjoy waiting a few more decades. Maybe someday you'll have a candidate you completely agree with who might actually win. But guess what? The reason that candidate will exist and the reason that candidate can win is because those who compromised and who endured paved the goddamn path. Your choices won't change anything.

Study some more before you throw out Roosevelt's name so lightly.

The New Deal coalition was the alignment of interest groups and voting blocs in the United States that supported the New Deal and voted for Democratic presidential candidates from 1932 until the late 1960s. It made the Democratic Party the majority party during that period, losing only to Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956. Franklin D. Roosevelt forged a coalition that included banking and oil industries, the Democratic state party organizations, city machines, labor unions, blue collar workers, minorities (racial, ethnic and religious), farmers, white Southerners, people on relief, and intellectuals.
 
Democrat senators threatened to filibuster if he did. We would have never gotten Obamacare at all if he pushed for that. We would have got nothing.


Because he needed the senate on his side. Pissing off the swing Dem senators he needed on his side by pushing for it would have been suicide. Obamacare passed by the skin of its teeth.


You can only be as liberal as your most conservative needed votes in Congress when it comes to passing laws.
I guess we'll never know because Obama refused to fight for it.
 
Look up the recent history of Canadian elections and then think about how well your strategy works. It failed in Canada three times and gave them 10 years of shit that will probably take another few years to unravel. And the latest election is also not a guarantee of future elections; it's an endless fight.

Ideological purity doesn't win elections. What you don't understand that even Bernie Sanders did when he joined the Democratic primary because the Democratic party itself has existing infrastructure, name recognition, networks, and people—things you can never hope to build on ideology alone. We did not get Roosevelt in the form we did because of multiple parties. We got Roosevelt in the form we did because he was a Democrat that built a coalition to vote for him and his party for decades, because he had to appeal to a wide range of interests. You and your narrow, selfish, self-centered ideological purity will never achieve that.

You couldn't stand the world with just a few decades of voting? Enjoy waiting a few more decades. Maybe someday you'll have a candidate you completely agree with who might actually win. But guess what? The reason that candidate will exist and the reason that candidate can win is because those who compromised and who endured paved the goddamn path. Your choices won't change anything.

Study some more before you throw out Roosevelt's name so lightly.
Roosevelt actively worked against a socialist candidate (Upton Sinclair for California Governor) even while actively appropriating many socialist ideas. That appropriation would not have come about if the Socialists weren't actively building strength and originating the damned ideas. Roosevelt was pulled to the left by a populace actively being offered socialist ideas and far left ideas. If there is no active left, there are no ideas for Roosevelt to appropriate.
 
Roosevelt actively worked against a socialist candidate (Upton Sinclair for California Governor) even while actively appropriating many socialist ideas. That appropriation would not have come about if the Socialists weren't actively building strength and originating the damned ideas. Roosevelt was pulled to the left by a populace actively being offered socialist ideas and far left ideas. If there is no active left, there are no ideas for Roosevelt to appropriate.

Roosevelt also tried to get laws to stand legal challenges by stacking the Supreme Court. It's kinda laughable that you are comparing 1930s politics with our current politics. As if they have anything in common.
 
I guess we'll never know because Obama refused to fight for it.

I have faith that this battle will be revisited in the near future. I would love to see some polling on what most Americans think of a public option and universal healthcare. I feel like support is slowing rising, and maybe we might see it reintroduced when the Democrats regain all branches of the government someday. Probably in the late 2020s and early 2030s.
 
Jesus fucking Christ, GOP, how about this, we don't talk about taking your guns if you won't take away rights from minorities? We both live with the risks, okay? (even though the "risk" from minorities basically doesn't exist, but whatever) Just stop whatever the fuck you are doing right now.

That comment from Rubio is impossibly disturbing...
 

dramatis

Member
Roosevelt actively worked against a socialist candidate (Upton Sinclair for California Governor) even while actively appropriating many socialist ideas. That appropriation would not have come about if the Socialists weren't actively building strength and originating the damned ideas. Roosevelt was pulled to the left by a populace actively being offered socialist ideas and far left ideas. If there is no active left, there are no ideas for Roosevelt to appropriate.
I don't see any proof that the Socialists is what caused Roosevelt to be pulled left. What was left and what was right in the 1930s? What about the failures of Calvin Coolidge and Herbert Hoover, leaving a deeply dissatisfied populace akin to Bush 2008? What were the main issues of the time? What were the main policies of Roosevelt's platform?

You're making a broad assumption about how Roosevelt won his elections and developed his coalition, an assumption that essentially tries to align his success with your proposed ideas. Unfortunately, FDR was already president before Upton Sinclair's candidacy (presidential election 1932, California gubernatorial election 1934); at best you can say he considered some ideas of Sinclair's and integrated them into the New Deal, but what got FDR elected was not socialist ideas. Get your timeline straight.

On top of that the Socialist party didn't pull Roosevelt anywhere; they didn't have enough clout for anything. FDR won by a margin of 18% over his next nearest competitor, the Republican Hoover. The Socialist party got a measly 2%. He didn't need their voters to easily outdo Hoover.
 
Honestly, Rubio might be more disgusting than Cruz. Cruz at least takes the worst positions of any human possible out of political ambition and lack of caring for others, Rubio flip-flops to take horrible positions out of political cowardice and that's somehow even worse to me...
 
I kind of remember something about how a big part of what got Roosevelt elected was him effectively cutting the legs out from under the Socialist movement; taking some of their ideas (and most of their people) and moving in a decidedly more moderate direction and rhetoric.

Basically exactly what disastermouse hates, huh.
 
I've noticed that Hillary does have a rather large gay male base of supporters. I'm going to generalize here, but I want it to be clear I'm only generalizing myself. I figure, if I'm going to be a stereotype be a good one, ya?

I think a lot of gay men are attracted to strong, powerful women. It's one of the reasons I adore Cher, Liza and Judy. We know what it's like to get kicked down and have to claw your way back up. Hillary's always been a fighter, and that appeals to me. You give me a woman in a pant suit with a plan, and I'm putty in her hands. And, I know this comes as a shock to some, but I actually agree with Hillary not only on the issues, but on the political realities that surround them. She knows how to get stuff done. She's not going to offer you pie in the sky. She's going to offer what she believes she can deliver. I also just like her. : shrugs : It's as simple as that. I like her. I want her to be President. I think she's our best choice. I think she's the most electable. I think she's the most qualified.

Also, for the record, I don't hate Bernie Sanders. I'm not a huge fan of his, but I'm not foaming at the mouth to see him lose. Obviously, I want my girl to win. For her to win, someone else has to lose. I just disagree with Sanders on his approach and position on several issues. He's completely wrong on guns. His inability to see that is a problem. I don't understand why he's so hesitant to talk about foreign policy. I also disagree that every, single issue in this country is rooted in economic inequality. It's a problem, yes. It's a big problem. It's not the only one, though. I don't wish him ill, though. He seems very dedicated and sure of his convictions.'

And, ya, O'Malley is hot. I wouldn't mind caucusing with him. I ain't voting for him no matter how hot he is, though. The only time I vote with my no-no parts is when I'm at the club.

I never go to the club. Obviously.

Politics asside, great post :).

This whole backlash (obviously not referring to your good self or Brainchild here) against my light hearted joke, on Bernie's "sex appeal" amongst young gay men (which I still think is humorous, and I was clearly not being serious, as I ended both sentences with my now (in)famous wiink), which, of course, is totally irrelevant (sex appeal), in a serious political discussion, reminds me of another unwarranted attack, against Bernie (we all know the one, and I would be very happy to re-post MSNBC's Morning Joe's scathing "no holds barred" reaction to the whole sorry affair). At the time, before posting, I recognized that I was courting danger, but if we can't inject a bit of levity into politics, as well as the passion, politics would be awfully dull [on GAF].

And B-Subs (me patronizing, oh come on), I have something very special lined up, just for you, that I just know you're going to love.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Daniel B·;186187391 said:
And B-Subs (me patronizing, oh come on), I have something very special lined up, just for you, that I just know you're going to love.

You mean more than you already are? Just try not to get banned dude.
 
Stein isn't a Republican. It doesn't matter how often you say it, it never becomes true. There's a difference between subtracting your vote for one side and adding a vote to the other side. What I'm doing is about half as damaging to the Democrats as it would be if I both removed my vote from Democrats AND added it to Republicans.

It's only half as bad. Fan fucking-tastic.
 

pigeon

Banned
I guess we'll never know because Obama refused to fight for it.

What would this fight have looked like to you? What do you think Obama needed to do that he didn't do?

I'm 41 next week. Sanders in the primary, Stein in the general if Hillary grabs the Democratic nom.

Similarly, I'd just really like to hear the narrative you have that connects the actions you're taking to the outcome you're trying to achieve.
 

Holmes

Member
New cnn debate criteria:

Required to make the main stage in Vegas: An average of at least 3.5% nationally; at least 4% in Iowa; or at least 4% in New Hampshire.
Come on CNN, when the top four candidates = 60%, you gotta cut the fat, not make it easier for the losers to appear on stage.
 
I knew the GOP loved the year 1984. I mean, Ronnie Raygun was President. It was the best of times, it was the best of times. I knew they wanted to bring back the 1980s. I didn't know, though, that they wanted to bring about 1984. This is legit scary now.

We can't put you in a database to know when you've bought a gun because FREEDOM!, but we can put you in one if you don't happen to worship the same invisible sky daddy as we do.

Oooookaaaaay.
 

Bowdz

Member
Come on CNN, when the top four candidates = 60%, you gotta cut the fat, not make it easier for the losers to appear on stage.

It's fine by me. More candidates means less time per candidate which means they need more extreme responses to breakout. Their rhetoric is literally at pre-Nazi Germany right now. God knows how fucking insane it will be by December, but it all just helps the Dems in the general.
 
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