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[B-Dubs]

Come on CNN, when the top four candidates = 60%, you gotta cut the fat, not make it easier for the losers to appear on stage.

Gotta make that money. Any word on who is moderating that mess?

..............................

So one of them wants Nazi Germany and the other wants to make 1984 a reality. The GOP frontrunners ladies and gentlemen!

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

How is the average being compiled? RCP currently shows Kasich, Fiorina, and Christie below 3.5

 

[B-Dubs]

How is the average being compiled? RCP currently shows Kasich, Fiorina, and Christie below 3.5

Is that in NH and Iowa too?

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Is that in NH and Iowa too?

I was under the impression you had to meet all 3. Is it just one you need?

 

[B-Dubs]

I was under the impression you had to meet all 3. Is it just one you need?

I thought it was at least one. No reason to include all those clauses unless you want as many people on the main stage as possible.

 

[QuiteWhittle]

JMC Enterprises has John Bel Edwards up by 5%, down from 16% just three days ago by the same pollster.

Edwards- 47 (51)
Vitter- 43 (35)

 

[kingkitty]

JMC Enterprises has John Bel Edwards up by 5%, down from 16% just three days ago by the same pollster.

Edwards- 47 (51)
Vitter- 43 (35)

well, Democrats tried

 

[WaffleTaco]

So I am writing a paper comparing how the GOP is becoming more fascist based on some of the stuff they were saying...the recent Trump comments have made this far easier.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

JMC Enterprises has John Bel Edwards up by 5%, down from 16% just three days ago by the same pollster.

Edwards- 47 (51)
Vitter- 43 (35)

Why not use the numbers with leaners included given that it's the day before the election?

 

[B-Dubs]

well, Democrats tried

I feel like the race was always going to tighten a bit going into the actual election.

So I am writing a paper comparing how the GOP is becoming more fascist based on some of the stuff they were saying...the recent Trump comments have made this far easier.

You should look at Rubio and Carson's comments on what Trump's said. They're just as scary as he is right now.

Then there's Kasich and his religious test, really the only sane man on this issue is Jeb.

I mean, it really sounds like that shit writes itself.

 

[Aaron Strife]

JMC Enterprises has John Bel Edwards up by 5%, down from 16% just three days ago by the same pollster.

Edwards- 47 (51)
Vitter- 43 (35)

Ugh, hope he still wins. Otherwise smh. The same bullshit happened in Kansas in 2014. Like everyone was on the same page that Brownback was a colossal fuck-up and then they got into the voting booth and were like "OH GOD NO ABORTION *REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN*"

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

If you put money on Vitter right now you could make some serious gains if he pulls it off. Predictit odds at only 20%

I always regretted not betting on Scott Brown back when intrade was around.

 

[B-Dubs]

If you put money on Vitter right now you could make some serious gains if he pulls it off. Predictit odds at only 20%

I always regretted not betting on Scott Brown back when intrade was around.

I'm still pissed I didn't bet on Trump after the first debate, probably could have made hundreds of dollars on a small-ish bet.

 

[QuiteWhittle]

Why not use the numbers with leaners included given that it's the day before the election?

Poll also have blacks at 9% undecided and we all who they're mostly going to break for. Early voters also appeared to favor Edwards so I'm not that worried.

Even if Edwards loses, Dems will know for sure that they shouldn't waste any money on the South(outside VA, NC, and FL) for the present and near future.

 

[Cheebo]

It's only half as bad. Fan fucking-tastic.

I like how he admits he is 50% helping Republicans win, but we shouldn't be mad because he is only half-helping them. Like that is fine and dandy.

 

[Cerium]

It's illegal to bet on election int the US, you need to put you money across the ponds.
Oddschecker is a good place to start.

Is this true? Can I actually get in trouble if I place bets on US elections on Predictit or Betfair?

 

[Cheebo]

edit: wrong thread.

 

[ivysaur12]

Yeah, the race was always going to tighten and these polls with JBE up with double digits were never going to be result. I still think he pulls it off.

 

[Macho Madness]

Sold my shares of Bel Edwards. Getting too close for comfort. Made $.40 per share.

The prediction markets also think Obama's approval rating will be below 43.9 as of today. Refugee crisis?

 

[Tarkus]

So I am writing a paper comparing how the GOP is becoming more fascist based on some of the stuff they were saying...the recent Trump comments have made this far easier.

I'm not sure why people think Trump is the craziest. Hell, he's the most sane of the bunch.

 

[User 463088]

So I am writing a paper comparing how the GOP is becoming more fascist based on some of the stuff they were saying...the recent Trump comments have made this far easier.

You could literally copy the front page of any news site and prove your point beyond a reasonable doubt.

 

[Owzers]

I haven't been following that closely, but Vitter is going to win. Seems like democrats get their hopes up and then get crushed.

Also, Wolf Blitzer is the main moderator of the cnn republican debate in december along wtih dana bash and hugh hewlett. Couldn't get Cooper? Wolf is kind of terrible.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Sold my shares of Bel Edwards. Getting too close for comfort. Made $.40 per share.

The prediction markets also think Obama's approval rating will be below 43.9 as of today. Refugee crisis?

Judging by the comments, looks like they were expecting a drop in Gallup.

 

[B-Dubs]

I haven't been following that closely, but Vitter is going to win. Seems like democrats get their hopes up and then get crushed.

Also, Wolf Blitzer is the main moderator of the cnn republican debate in december along wtih dana bash and hugh hewlett. Couldn't get Cooper? Wolf is kind of terrible.

The GOP probably said outright that Cooper couldn't do it. He'd tear the candidates apart molecule by molecule, there'd be nothing but quarks left at the end of it.

 

[Fenderputty]

I'm not sure why people think Trump is the craziest. Hell, he's the most sane of the bunch.

This was true before he went full on fascist mode. He's a fucking loon.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

The GOP probably said outright that Cooper couldn't do it. He'd tear the candidates apart molecule by molecule, there'd be nothing but quarks left at the end of it.

They even get their own conservative guest moderator. I don't get that at all unless it happens on both sides.

This was true before he went full on fascist mode. He's a fucking loon.

When Ted Cruz is disagreeing with you on a conservative issue, you know you've gone too far.

 

[ivysaur12]

Also:

http://blogs.theadvocate.com/politi...closing-in-on-john-bel-edwards-in-final-days/

“In conclusion, the race has tightened substantially; the question is whether that will make the difference with (1)
the election’s being tomorrow, and (2) the fact that as of last night, 267,983 early/absentee votes were cast largely
before the Syrian refugee crisis,” pollster John Couvillon writes in his analysis. [See the full poll and demographic breakdown here.]

Michael Henderson, of LSU’s Manship School of Mass Communication, writes in a new blog post that when looking at the averages “for the Louisiana runoff polls it is hard to escape a double digit lead for Edwards.”

Looking at possible scenarios for a Vitter win, Henderson writes that it’s possible for Vitter to see a late surge.

“Whether it will be enough for Vitter to win…I’m skeptical because that bar is getting harder and harder to reach, but it would foolish, I think, to say it is out of reach,” Henderson writes.

http://louisiananumbers.com/blog/2015/11/19/how-wrong-would-the-polls-have-to-be

A Guess (Sort Of)

To be clear, I think we’re in for an election that is much closer than the polls show now, but I think something closer to scenario #1 is more likely. I think this based on the partisan tendencies of voters. Whether it will be enough for Vitter to win…I'm skeptical because that bar is getting harder and harder to reach, but it would foolish, I think, to say it is out of reach. Still, I am puzzled why we have not seen some of this in the polling yet. Perhaps there are systematic errors in the polls. It could very well happen that the polls are wrong, but for them to be even worse than in Kentucky? It certainly is not a likely scenario.

He's got this, guys.

 

[B-Dubs]

They even get their own conservative guest moderator. I don't get that at all unless it happens on both sides.

The Dems probably see the debates as practice and don't care if they get a tough moderator or not.

 

[RastaMentality]

@pppolls: Among Democratic voters 62% support $12 minimum wage, but only 36% support $15. Clinton's position is the base's: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...as-speaker-mcconnell-still-down-in-dumps.html

Makes me wonder if the Clinton camp knew this before.

 

[Poodlestrike]

So... people who follow conservative media, how are they taking this bold new direction of Trump's? Is this more of the same, or finally a step too far? I'm inclined to think the former, but maybe the basic admission that his plan is largely indistinguishable from Hitler's will finally push some of them over the edge.

 

[User 463088]

Makes me wonder if the Clinton camp knew this before.

It's not bad enough she's been stealing Bernie's positions on the issues, she's now trying to steal the voter's opinions as well.

She can't keep getting away with it!

From PPP:

Finally we continue to find Americans saying that gay marriage being legal in the country just hasn't proven to be that big of a deal. 72% say either that its legalization has had a positive impact on their lives or that it hasn't had any impact at all, with only 28% claiming that it's had a negative impact. Even most Republican voters (54%) grant that it hasn't been that bad.

You don't fucking say....

 

[Tarkus]

So... people who follow conservative media, how are they taking this bold new direction of Trump's? Is this more of the same, or finally a step too far? I'm inclined to think the former, but maybe the basic admission that his plan is largely indistinguishable from Hitler's will finally push some of them over the edge.

I've been on clinical rotation, so I haven't read the news in 5 days or so. What's the new stance exactly?

 

[ivysaur12]

So... people who follow conservative media, how are they taking this bold new direction of Trump's? Is this more of the same, or finally a step too far? I'm inclined to think the former, but maybe the basic admission that his plan is largely indistinguishable from Hitler's will finally push some of them over the edge.

lol

 

[Holmes]

Makes me wonder if the Clinton camp knew this before.

Looks very similar to the Clinton-Sanders matchup numbers too.

 

[B-Dubs]

I've been on clinical rotation, so I haven't read the news in 5 days or so. What's the new stance exactly?

He's basically going full Hitler before he took power. Calling for a national database of all Muslims. When asked how it's different from the Nazi plan he said, and I am not kidding, "You tell me."

 

[Poodlestrike]

I've been on clinical rotation, so I haven't read the news in 5 days or so. What's the new stance exactly?

National database of Muslims with mandatory registration and ID.

lol

Shut up, I can dream.

 

[Wilsongt]

It's not bad enough she's been stealing Bernie's positions on the issues, she's now trying to steal the voter's opinions as well.

She can't keep getting away with it!

From PPP:


You don't fucking say....

Jeb accused her of reading the polls to form her opinions, lol

 

[Owzers]

Jeb accused her of reading the polls to form her opinions, lol

he probably focus grouped that attack too

 

[Aaron Strife]

Jeb accused her of reading the polls to form her opinions, lol

iJeb! would be wise to read from polls.

 

[dramatis]

As a part of Bernie's speech yesterday he put forth his plan for fighting ISIS. Vox excerpted the section regarding this plan.

Our response must begin with an understanding of past mistakes and missteps in our previous approaches to foreign policy. It begins with the acknowledgment that unilateral military action should be a last resort, not a first resort, and that ill-conceived military decisions, such as the invasion of Iraq, can wreak far-reaching devastation and destabilize entire regions for decades. It begins with the reflection that the failed policy decisions of the past - rushing to war, regime change in Iraq, or toppling Mossadegh in Iran in 1953, or Guatemalan President Árbenz in 1954, Brazilian President Goulart in 1964, Chilean President Allende in 1973. These are the sorts of policies do not work, do not make us safer, and must not be repeated.

After World War II, in response to the fear of Soviet aggression, European nations and the United States established the North Atlantic Treaty Organization - an organization based on shared interests and goals and the notion of a collective defense against a common enemy. It is my belief that we must expand on these ideals and solidify our commitments to work together to combat the global threat of terror.

We must create an organization like NATO to confront the security threats of the 21st century - an organization that emphasizes cooperation and collaboration to defeat the rise of violent extremism and importantly to address the root causes underlying these brutal acts. We must work with our NATO partners, and expand our coalition to include Russia and members of the Arab League.

It's presented without comment at the link.

 

[adamsappel]

Roosevelt also tried to get laws to stand legal challenges by stacking the Supreme Court. It's kinda laughable that you are comparing 1930s politics with our current politics. As if they have anything in common.

Well, 1930's German politics suddenly has a lot more in common.

Makes me wonder if the Clinton camp knew this before.

It's the people who advocate for $15 (moreso the workers themselves, rather than Bernie) who make $12 palatable. You even see it in the minimum wage threads here. "Yeah, it needs to go up some. I could support $10, $12, but not $15!"

I don't think I'll ever come back to the fold unless the Democrats run a real progressive - and that will only happen with pressure from the Left, say the union-based party we almost got in the 90s, Socialist Alternative, Socialist Equality Party, ISO, Green, etc. The only reason we got Roosevelt in the form we got him was due to pressure from the Socialist and Communist parties.

It would be more proper to credit Eleanor Roosevelt with FDR's progressive policies.

 

[B-Dubs]

It would be more proper to credit Eleanor Roosevelt with FDR's progressive policies.

If her era was as progressive as ours, she likely would have been our first woman president.

 

[Cerium]

Looked into it and Predictit is legal in the US based on some weird technicality.

I now own 1521 shares of Donald Trump for GOP nominee.

Make America My Checkbook Great Again!

 

[Tarkus]

He's basically going full Hitler before he took power. Calling for a national database of all Muslims. When asked how it's different from the Nazi plan he said, and I am not kidding, "You tell me."

National database of Muslims with mandatory registration and ID.

It looks like a one-off gaffe that he's yet to stand behind. Yes it's a shitty idea and statement, but it won't hurt him. Probably makes him stronger.

My support for him has faltered a bit over the last few months. My views are fairly atypical for a conservative, and I don't really match up with any of them. One of those political compass-type websites says I'm most closely aligned with Rubio. Idk. We'll see how it plays out.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Looked into it and Predictit is legal in the US based on some weird technicality.

I now own 1521 shares of Donald Trump for GOP nominee.

Make America My Checkbook Great Again!

Yeah PredictIt is legal and legit. They've been cleared and everything.

 

[Cerium]

Yeah PredictIt is legal and legit. They've been cleared and everything.

I just shorted Rubio too. I think he's way overhyped right now.

 

[B-Dubs]

Looked into it and Predictit is legal in the US based on some weird technicality.

I now own 1521 shares of Donald Trump for GOP nominee.

Make America My Checkbook Great Again!

I only bought 190 Trump shares, I don't make enough to throw more at him but even so the return would be fantastic if he won. If he loses then I've learned an important lesson on gambling.

It looks like a one-off gaffe that he's yet to stand behind. Yes it's a shitty idea and statement, but it won't hurt him. Probably makes him stronger.

My support for him has faltered a bit over the last few months. My views are fairly atypical for a conservative, and I don't really match up with any of them. One of those political compass-type websites says I'm most closely aligned with Rubio. Idk. We'll see how it plays out.

Not really one-off when he makes a similar statement earlier in the day.

 

[Retromelon]

I think I found a new cause
http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/19/politics/rand-paul-government-surveillance/index.html

At a campaign event at George Washington University, the Kentucky senator told the crowd that the National Security Agency's bulk collection of phone record data hasn't been stopped, despite a judge's order, due to a six-month window to end the program.

"So when they stand up on television and say the tragedy in Paris means you have to give up your liberty, we need more phone surveillance -- bulls--t!" Paul said.

Video at the link. His passion has won me over

 

[Aaron Strife]

Just bought 93 shares of Trump lol

 

[Y2Kev]

If Edwards loses I really blame obama