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[Black Mamba]

I've yet to comment on the La polling this cycle.

Here's my thoughts.

I really don't have much. State polling in harder. The race is bizarre in that a generic R would easily win but Vitter got caught in scandals making him not as palatable. of course, the closest comparison is Akin but it's all an off-year election.

I would just say Dems should be cautiously optimistic about the election. Accept that there's a really good shot to take the state but be aware that it's no where close to a guarantee given the state involved.

Hopefully JBE pulls it off. But I'm not going to assume he'll win like I assumed Obama would win in 2012. No fucking way. I don't trust those people once they enter the voting booth.

 

[ivysaur12]

http://www.bayoubuzz.com/buzz/item/...-to-17-points-convillion-rigamer-and-kennnedy

It's a video. Basically, there are two firms that have been running tracking polls, and haven't seen any JBE dip this week.

 

[FredX72]

He should be talking foreign policy right now. Nobody wants to listen to a speech on Bernie's brand of "socialism" at the moment.

The entire last quarter of that speech was about foreign policy.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I've yet to comment on the La polling this cycle.

Here's my thoughts.

I really don't have much. State polling in harder. The race is bizarre in that a generic R would easily win but Vitter got caught in scandals making him not as palatable. of course, the closest comparison is Akin but it's all an off-year election.

I would just say Dems should be cautiously optimistic about the election. Accept that there's a really good shot to take the state but be aware that it's no where close to a guarantee given the state involved.

Hopefully JBE pulls it off. But I'm not going to assume he'll win like I assumed Obama would win in 2012. No fucking way. I don't trust those people once they enter the voting booth.

I think the fact that the worst poll for JBE so far still has him leading by 5 (and just 1 point away from the magic number with several African-Americans still undecided) is pretty encouraging, especially when all the other polls have him leading by double digits and comfortably over 50%.

The issue with Kentucky polling was that most of them nailed Conway's total, but Bevin sponged up all the undecideds. I expect that to happen here, but if the polls are correct Vitter will need more than that to win. I won't be surprised if he DOES win, because it is still a very red state, but never say die.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Not sure if the Bloomberg/Selzer numbers were posted.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/290424533/Bloomberg-Politics-national-poll-Nov-20-2015

Trump leads at 24, Carson 20, Rubio 12.

Some of the other questions are kind of interesting.
Do you consider yourself more of an establishment or anti-establishment Republican?
Among registered Republicans and leaners only; n=379. MoE: ± 5.0% pts
41 Establishment
45 Anti-establishment
4 Neither (VOL)
11 Not sure

Which ONE of the following factions of the Republican party describes you best as you think about which candidate to support:
10 Tea party
33 Christian conservative
22 Mainstream Republican
14 Libertarian
15 National security conservative
6 Not sure

Post-debate nothing has changed that much in the Dem race.
Clinton / Sanders / Unidentified man : 55 / 30 / 3

Her support is more shored up. 46% mind made up v. 36% for him, compared to could still be persuaded.

She wins generally on who is best on practical issues. He draws close or wins on honesty and on reining in Wall St.

Republicans think the US should send ground troops. Democrats don't. By wide and opposite margins of about 2:1.
But both Republicans and Democrats say they regard:
Islam is an inherently peaceful religion, but there are some who twist its teachings to justify violence.
Although, I think the options are poorly worded. The other is:
Islam is an inherently violent religion, which leads its followers to violent acts
:/

69% of Republicans and 36% of Democrats don't want to accept any Syrian refugees.

 

[User 463088]

The entire last quarter of that speech was about foreign policy.

Almost like an afterthought.

Edit: Let me elaborate: When you're down on an issue, and you're being seen as a one issue/policy candidate, you need to show that you're not. Sanders needed to give an entire speech on foreign policy, just as Hillary and others have done. He need to do it now, not in three weeks or whatever. Now. This socialism speech should have been done six months ago. It should have been part of his announcement. Now, it's just like he's playing the defensive.

 

[ivysaur12]

Almost like an afterthought.

 

[User 463088]

You know, I've realized a lot of my criticisms of Bernie stem from his campaign more than anything else. They are just ridiculously bad at this....and they shouldn't be. You pseudo hype up this big Socialism speech that you deliver at Georgetown. Why not hit up Iowa or New Hampshire or, even better, South Carolina? Go there to deliver this type of speech.

And then, if you're going to do this, actually hype the damn thing. Make sure you get some of the press there. Lie to them if you have to. Tell them you're going to beat a piñata of Hillary in effigy if it helps. Get people to cover this. You're the underdog here. Don't expect them to cater to you!

Its just such a waste. He's got campaign funds. He's got a movement. Actually do something with it!

 

[Retromelon]

boy, carson's campaign sure self destructed as foretold here by many ))))))))

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

boy, carson's campaign sure self destructed as foretold here by many ))))))))

Well, he is declining a decent bit. Unfavorables are up and Cruz is catching up.

 

[Makai]

boy, carson's campaign sure self destructed as foretold here by many ))))))))

He's like 5 points ahead of Marco Rubio.

 

[Basileus777]

boy, carson's campaign sure self destructed as foretold here by many ))))))))

His numbers are trending down.

Spoiler

Remember when you tried to make me eat crow after one poll?

 

[Tarkus]

Did you actually have a response or did you just want to string together three words in the English language

Wtf buddy? You're insinuating that I'm speaking of any Muslim nation when I'm clearly talking about Syrian refugees. It looks like you're having a hard time understanding tonight.

 

[Retromelon]

if only "his numbers will trend downwards but he will still be firmly in second place" was the prediction instead of "its over, he's finished, so long ben"

His numbers are trending down.

Spoiler

Remember when you tried to make me eat crow after one poll?

yes i do. it's clear I was right in the end; you can eat it now if you like.

 

[Makai]

Specifically, my prediction is that he's in 3rd place or lower on December 31st

Also we probably need to update your victory prize.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Ben Carson says you should keep a database on immigrants in general.

Something you already have.

But maybe he means he'll bring it back, after having to cut 40% of government spending with his flat tax.

Basically, most evidence points to him being an bumbling fool. But he's a neurosurgeon, so he's not.

 

[ivysaur12]

Wtf buddy? You're insinuating that I'm speaking of any Muslim nation when I'm clearly talking about Syrian refugees. It looks like you're having a hard time understanding tonight.

Really? Because it seems that you've decided to throw any understanding of the refugee process out the window while you gleefully parrot xenophobic, islamaphobic bs.

Also? I'm not your buddy.

 

[FredX72]

Almost like an afterthought.

Edit: Let me elaborate: When you're down on an issue, and you're being seen as a one issue/policy candidate, you need to show that you're not. Sanders needed to give an entire speech on foreign policy, just as Hillary and others have done. He need to do it now, not in three weeks or whatever. Now. This socialism speech should have been done six months ago. It should have been part of his announcement. Now, it's just like he's playing the defensive.

Of course it wasn't originally planned that way - no one is saying it was. Just like I'm sure Hillary wasn't planning on giving a foreign policy speech this week either until Paris happened. Doesn't diminish the content of their speeches.

You know, I've realized a lot of my criticisms of Bernie stem from his campaign more than anything else. They are just ridiculously bad at this....and they shouldn't be. You pseudo hype up this big Socialism speech that you deliver at Georgetown. Why not hit up Iowa or New Hampshire or, even better, South Carolina? Go there to deliver this type of speech.

And then, if you're going to do this, actually hype the damn thing. Make sure you get some of the press there. Lie to them if you have to. Tell them you're going to beat a piñata of Hillary in effigy if it helps. Get people to cover this. You're the underdog here. Don't expect them to cater to you!

Its just such a waste. He's got campaign funds. He's got a movement. Actually do something with it!

I suppose it's a fair criticism that they could have held it in a more important state, but I don't think hype levels were an issue as they were saying it would be the most important speech of his campaign so far. As long as you can separate your criticisms of how the campaign runs from Bernie's actual views and policies, I think it's fine.

 

[Basileus777]

yes i do. it's clear I was right in the end; you can eat it now if you like.

You don't eat crow when you were right, that's not how it works.

if only "his numbers will trend downwards but he will still be firmly in second place" was the prediction instead of "its over, he's finished, so long ben"

Nah, you quoted me merely saying he would be damaged, and he was.

 

[Retromelon]

Specifically, my prediction is that he's in 3rd place or lower on December 31st

Also we probably need to update your victory prize.

I'll just take the fifty through paypal then if that pleases you, instead of donating it to bobby ))))) if i win of course ))

You don't eat crow when you were right, that's not how it works.

alright, i will just crow about how I was right )

 

[shinra-bansho]

NB This is very annoying and comes across as trolling regardless of who does it. So, if you are doing it to intentionally rile people up, you should probably cut it out.

'Cause I don't get mad, I get stabby.

 

[Makai]

I'll just take the fifty through paypal then if that pleases you, instead of donating it to bobby ))))) if i win of course ))

Naw, that's no fun. Pick another presidential candidate.

 

[Retromelon]

Naw, that's no fun. Pick another presidential candidate.

whoever you dont like most, or rand paul. i'll know if you're lying, somehow.

Spoiler

ok jeb it is

 

[Makai]

whoever you dont like most, or rand paul. i'll know if you're lying, somehow.

Spoiler

Jeb.

 

[HylianTom]

David Plouffe just tweeted this:

@davidplouffe:
Best case Trump map. Hence the growing establishment panic. https://t.co/UoOkoCRw5b #2016election

...

Holy hell. And I thought I was optimistic!

 

[Makai]

No way. Georgia?

 

[NeoXChaos]

David Plouffe just tweeted this:

@davidplouffe:
Best case Trump map. Hence the growing establishment panic. https://t.co/UoOkoCRw5b #2016election



...

Holy hell. And I thought I was optimistic!

he forgot IN.

 

[B-Dubs]

David Plouffe just tweeted this:

@davidplouffe:
Best case Trump map. Hence the growing establishment panic. https://t.co/UoOkoCRw5b #2016election



...

Holy hell. And I thought I was optimistic!

Holy fucking shit.

I should have put money on Hillary winning it all as well, she's running about the same as Trump is in the GOP pool.

Wait, why did they give Trump Indiana? No way that would go for him.

 

[Cerium]

No way. Georgia?

Georgia has been talked about for a while as one of those states where demographics are trending Democratic. It's a few cycles early, but definitely on the table if Trump is the nominee.

We should all be doing everything we can to make sure Trump is the nominee.

 

[Tarkus]

Really? Because it seems that you've decided to throw any understanding of the refugee process out the window while you gleefully parrot xenophobic, islamaphobic bs.

Also? I'm not your buddy.

You sound like someone who is very angry and takes everything literally pal. The vetting process is full holes anyway...

The head of the House Homeland Security Committee warned on Sunday that “gaping holes” within U.S. defenses make the nation vulnerable to attacks similar to Friday’s violence in Paris.

“There are a lot of holes — gaping holes,” Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

“We have hundreds of Americans that have traveled” to Iraq and Syria, he added. “Many of them have come back as well. I think that’s a direct threat.”

McCaul has previously warned that the flow of Europeans and — to a lesser extent — Americans into the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) poses a threat to those countries when people return home.
In addition, McCaul has warned that an influx of Syrian refugees fleeing the ongoing chaos provides a perfect opportunity for Islamic extremists to slip into the U.S. or another country undetected.

“This causes a great concern on the part of policymakers, because we don’t want to be complicit with a program that could bring potential terrorists into the United States,” McCaul said.

One of the men involved in Friday’s attack across Paris, which killed 129 people, was reported to have slipped into the country by disguising himself as a Syrian refugee.

Though the Obama administration has insisted that that revelation does not affect its plans to allow thousands more migrants into the U.S., the news will surely be used by opponents of the policy.

On Capitol Hill, top intelligence and law enforcement officials have testified that “gaps” in intelligence about the refugees leave them with some worries.

McCaul on Sunday said that he had spoken with officials at the FBI and Department of Homeland Security, who “they tell me this cannot be properly done.”

“We don’t have the databases to vet them.”

The White House has announced plans to increase the number of refugees allowed into the U.S. to 10,000. Still, that number is just a sliver compared to the plans of some other nations, such as Germany, which has estimated that as many as 800,000 migrants will resettle within its borders this year.

Your xenophobic and Islamophobic claims are quite frankly nauseating. Criticism of a touchy subject like this is like a personal stab at you or something. You're like a beaten dog with this shit.

Edit: Hillary will beat Trump in GA. LOLOLOLOLOL.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Ted Cruz is heckled from the outset: "Deportations are anti-family" repeats protestors, who are drowned out with "USA" chants.

America is fine right now, absolutely.

 

[Makai]

Georgia has been talked about for a while as one of those states where demographics are trending Democratic. It's a few cycles early, but definitely on the table if Trump is the nominee.

We should all be doing everything we can to make sure Trump is the nominee.

Shouldn't get your hopes up. This sounds like Republicans thinking they can win Pennsylvania Michigan.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

As a part of Bernie's speech yesterday he put forth his plan for fighting ISIS. Vox excerpted the section regarding this plan.

It's presented without comment at the link.

Didn't Vox just post an excellent article about separation of church and state being the fundamental issue along with the myth ISIS has about previous caliphates? Maybe the author was different, but I don't see what the point of NATO like organization would be.

 

[Makai]

The Dilbert creator thinks Trump will win the general in a landslide

 

[Cerium]

Shouldn't get your hopes up. This sounds like Republicans thinking they can win Pennsylvania Michigan.

I mean, the difference is that Republicans desperately need a state like Michigan while any scenario where Democrats carry Georgia would already be a slaughter.

 

[User 463088]

David Plouffe just tweeted this:

@davidplouffe:
Best case Trump map. Hence the growing establishment panic. https://t.co/UoOkoCRw5b #2016election



...

Holy hell. And I thought I was optimistic!

I will buy Georgia, but I have issues with Arizona. The GOP is strong with that one, and I'm not sure just demographic advantage would be enough...even if every non-white voter was excited to Dump the Trump.

NC and Missouri, though, I'll buy into.

 

[Squirrel Killer]

Just took a survey where they asked where I got the most political information, I said the internet. The follow up was "what site?" Um... "You're not going to have this in your list of standard responses... N...E...O...G...A...F... dot com."

 

[RastaMentality]

Just took a survey where they asked where I got the most political information, I said the internet. The follow up was "what site?" Um... "You're not going to have this in your list of standard responses... N...E...O...G...A...F... dot com."

People always scoff at me when I say I get most of my news from a forum but stuff is really well-sourced and compacted here.

 

[ivysaur12]

EDIT: not feeding the trolls

 

[Cerium]

Obama won NC in 2008 and was competitive in 2012. Of course it will be in play.

 

[RustyNails]

David Plouffe just tweeted this:

@davidplouffe:
Best case Trump map. Hence the growing establishment panic. https://t.co/UoOkoCRw5b #2016election



...

Holy hell. And I thought I was optimistic!

aaaand the worst case scenario for Trump??

 

[ivysaur12]

aaaand the worst case scenario for Trump??

Probably losing everything except ID, UT, WY, KS and OK.

 

[kess]

The Dilbert creator thinks Trump will win the general in a landslide

Scott Adams in 2011

The part that interests me is that society is organized in such a way that the natural instincts of men are shameful and criminal while the natural instincts of women are mostly legal and acceptable. In other words, men are born as round pegs in a society full of square holes. Whose fault is that? Do you blame the baby who didn’t ask to be born male? Or do you blame the society that brought him into the world, all round-pegged and turgid, and said, “Here’s your square hole”?

 

[Basileus777]

Probably losing everything except ID, UT, WY, KS and OK.

26 electoral votes. If only, I'd love to see the reactions to that.

 

[QuiteWhittle]

No way. Georgia?

Is this any more ridiculous than NC and VA going blue in 2008? All three states are at different stages of the same process.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

aaaand the worst case scenario for Trump??

Assassinated by Mitch McConnell.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Probably losing everything except ID, UT, WY, KS and OK.

The interesting thing about your scenario is that ND, SD, NE and KS have all voted the same way for President since 1920. Unprecedented since 1916 when SD was the lone of the 4 to vote against Wilson. Btw you forgot WV.

EDIT: AZ only went democratic once since 1948 and that was Bill in 1996. The rest are SC, AL, MS since 76 & ID, UT, WY, KS, OK, ND & SD in 64 due to LBJ landslide. Everything other states stretches back to 96-present with the Clinton 6 of LA, AR, KY, TN, WV, MO. Obama broke the hold off of VA, IN & NC streak.

 

[Tarkus]

EDIT: not feeding the trolls

Ah...if my opinion is not like yours then I'm trolling. Such a fucking entitled statement. Really says a lot about you.

 

[Diablos]

That is a nice electoral map.

Trump 2016 pls

 

[Retromelon]

i would edit that, sourshoes, before a certain someone sees it if i were you