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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Ross Douthat openly longs for the days of racists who were good enough at dogwhistling to win general elections:

The problem for Republicans is that they haven’t found a candidate who can appeal to Trump’s politically-disaffected supporters — whether they’re worried about immigration, jobs, terrorism or an overreaching social liberalism — without trafficking in slurs and empty bluster. But that’s roughly what Nixon did in 1968 and 1972, when he addressed (liberal historians would say exploited, but we can have that debate another time) widespread anxieties over social change and disorder without ever repudiating racial equality or civil rights.

In this year’s Republican primary, the non-Trump candidates have struggled mightily to make that kind of nuanced case. And they’ve struggled, in part, because they lack a second Nixonian gift: An instinct for the non-ideological character of many American voters, primary voters included.
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http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/22/o...-nixon.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur&_r=0
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Sea Manky said:
"I support Trump because he speaks his filthy, racist, fascist mind!"
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I like when people support candidates because they "tell it like it is!"

Translation: "He agrees with my racist, sexist, homophobic and xenophobic sentiments and loudly proclaims what I'm too passive-aggressive to support independently!"
 
S

SL128

Member
The New York Times said:
the-strip-slide-GHHQ-superJumbo.png
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I liked this, but holy shit the artstyle managed to make three-year-olds look eighty.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
At this point, if I worked for the RNC, I would be ordering horse's heads by the dozen to send to every candidate except Rubio.

The funny part is it probably doesn't matter. I'm starting to think Jeb has too many Bush-loyal funding sources to winnow effectively. Fiorina/Paul/Santorum/Huckabee don't care what anybody thinks. (Although maybe give Fiorina a cabinet post and get rid of her that way?) So, what, you can winnow Kasich and Christie?

My three-pronged prediction is still on point, I think. Rubio if the party decides. Trump if we're in a new age of crazy. Cruz if both are a little bit true.
 
Y

Yellowtail

Member
Teggy said:
Boston Globe put Romney in their NH poll and he beat Trump 2:1.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/20...efer-romney/WiU9f86jd19UkXYQfb2yxM/story.html
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Too bad he missed the filing deadline.

pigeon said:
At this point, if I worked for the RNC, I would be ordering horse's heads by the dozen to send to every candidate except Rubio.

The funny part is it probably doesn't matter. I'm starting to think Jeb has too many Bush-loyal funding sources to winnow effectively. Fiorina/Paul/Santorum/Huckabee don't care what anybody thinks. (Although maybe give Fiorina a cabinet post and get rid of her that way?) So, what, you can winnow Kasich and Christie?

My three-pronged prediction is still on point, I think. Rubio if the party decides. Trump if we're in a new age of crazy. Cruz if both are a little bit true.
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This is why I was so happy to see CNN's December debate requirements. They threw Kasich and Christie a lifeline by including New Hampshire polls in their criteria. They've both got no reason to drop out before NH and will ensure the establishment vote is split four ways (five if you include Fiorina).

And what does the establishment do if Trump wins NH and Rubio comes behind any number of Bush/Christie/Kasich (not to mention Cruz)? It will be chaos.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
This might actually be more important than John Bel Edwards's win:

http://www.ktbs.com/story/30578589/james-stewart-is-new-caddo-da-defeating-dhu-thompson

SHREVEPORT, La -
Retired state appeals court judge James Stewart was elected district attorney of Caddo Parish on Saturday, defeating prosecutor Dhu Thompson in a race that received national attention amid a backdrop of debates over the death penalty and outside campaign contributions.

Stewart received 55 percent of the vote to 45 percent for Thompson, according to complete but unofficial returns.

Stewart will serve the remaining five years of the term of the late District Attorney Charles Scott, who died in April of a heart attack. He takes office after the official vote recount on Tuesday.

Stewart led a six-candidate field for D.A. in the October primary but was short of the majority of votes needed to win outright. Thompson, who was a strong second, received the endorsements of most of the other D.A. candidates during the runoff.

The race grabbed national headlines when billionaire George Soros of New York, a philanthropist known for his support of liberal causes and racial justice, put more than $800,000 into a local political action committee that backed Stewart, a Democrat.

Republicans complained about outside money being put into a local race, but then formed one of their own late in the campaign and aired anti-Stewart ads.
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Why is this important?

http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/node/6097

Of the 12 death sentences handed down in Louisiana in the last 5 years, 8 have come from Caddo Parish. Caddo is also among the 2% of U.S. counties responsible for 56% of people on death row. With a population of just 257,000, Caddo Parish has sent 16 people to death row, the second highest of any parish in Louisiana. Two prosecutors, one of whom is under investigation for prosecutorial misconduct, are responsible for 6 of the recent death sentences. Hugo Holland, who handled two cases that resulted in death sentences in the last five years, is being investigated by the Disciplinary Board of the state's bar association for failing to turn over evidence favorable to a defendant being tried for the murder of a prison guard. That defendant's death sentence was overturned in 2014. Prosecutor Dale Cox, who obtained four of Caddo's recent death sentences, has said he believes death row inmates spend too long awaiting execution, but waited 10 months to sign off on the release of Glenn Ford after evidence of Ford's innocence was uncovered. Ford was convicted in Caddo Parish and spent 30 years on death row before his exoneration. (Pictured: Caddo County Courthouse, 2010.)
Click to expand...
 
S

Sianos

Member
unrelated political musing because i can't even look at dota twitterspace without finding (links deriding) people who just don't know how to human

as usual, let me be politically incorrect = let me fundamentally misunderstand human psychology

"shit, we have created a society that through social factors and pressures causes emotional problems for everyone... the solution is clearly for women to be forced to have sex with me"

with some extra "shit, we made ourselves the 'default' archetype for humans in our society that all else is to be measured against and now we are linguistically treated as the 'default' how could this be" for good measure

i guess it ties in with isis because the author's proposed solution to the ongoing crisis is forcing women to have sex with people who defect from isis
 
P

pigeon

Banned
NSQuote said:
unrelated political musing because i can't even look at dota twitterspace without finding (links deriding) people who just don't know how to human

as usual, let me be politically incorrect = let me fundamentally misunderstand human psychology

"shit, we have created a society that through social factors and pressures causes emotional problems for everyone... the solution is clearly for women to be forced to have sex with me"

with some extra "shit, we made ourselves the 'default' archetype for humans in our society that all else is to be measured against and now we are linguistically treated as the 'default' how could this be" for good measure

i guess it ties in with isis because the author's proposed solution to the ongoing crisis is forcing women to have sex with people who defect from isis
Click to expand...

Scott Adams has been a total misogynist nut job for so many years now.
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
ivysaur12 said:
D Wasserman SchultzVerified account ‏@DWStweets
The red streak in the Deep South is broken! Congratulations to Governor-Elect John Bel Edwards, the next Governor of Louisiana! #momentum


lol
Click to expand...

Debbie has found a new strategy for Democratic success in the south!

Make sure every single Republican candidate for statewide office has a sex scandal!
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
The Republicans still have problems in the northeast despite their wins in NJ, MA, MD, & ME. Likewise with the D's in the South and Plains despite Edwards win. With the perfect storm D's and R's can win anywhere........................except D's in KS lol.

Such is the beauty of politics.
 
D

Daniel B·

Banned
I have some friendly advice, for all the other Presidential candidates; you might as well throw your proverbial towels into the ring, today, and advise your wealthy campaign contributers to donate the many millions they were planning on spending on your campaigns, to a worthy cause, because, at this moment in our nation's history, Bernie Sanders was born to be President!

Bernie Sanders at the Black Entertainment Television (BET) 2015 Presidential Justice Forum (11/21/15)

Bernie Sanders said:
Throughout our lives, all of us can remember: "we're gonna be tough on crime", "we're gonna throw away the key", "we're gonna do this", "we're gonna do that". But all of that has resulted in an international disgrace, and I trust that all of you know it, that the United States of America today, has more people in jail, than any other country on Earth, including, China, which is an authoritarian communist country, four times our size.

And we as a people, have to lay this issue right on the table; and that is, people in American jails are disproportionately, to a very significant degree. people of color. And that is the reality in America today, and that is a reality that has to change. Too many lives. too, too many lives, are being destroyed, and together, we are going to bring about major reforms, of a broken criminal justice system.
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Bernie Sanders Q&A at the BET 2015 Presidential Justice Forum (11/21/15)

Tiraje Lester said:
Q: I want to know how we have an America, where black lives matters. and by the first term, as President, how would it happen?
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Bernie Sanders said:
A: How it would happen, is that, for a start, we would make this issue, a major issue, in my administration. Another words, it's not something we would push aside.

It's an issue that we would bring the country together, and say, in the following many ways, we are going to end the absurdity, the horror, the embarrassment, of unarmed black men and women and children, being killed by police officers, or in police custody, We are going to bring about sweeping reforms, of police departments, all over this country. So, to answer your question, it becomes for us, a major priority, in a Sanders administration.
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I

ivysaur12

Banned
I know that it was against David Vitter, but I'm just still so jazzed about last night and for the people of Louisiana who finally have access to health care.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
Every weekend I do my technical and fundamental analysis of the markets and economy for the week ahead, and everything has been looking sickly for months and getting worse. I feel the evidence now is strong that the business cycle is giving out, and Democrats need to be prepared for it. I can do a detailed writeup why if anyone's interested.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Ecotic said:
Every weekend I do my technical and fundamental analysis of the markets and economy for the week ahead, and everything has been looking sickly for months and getting worse. I feel the evidence now is strong that the business cycle is giving out, and Democrats need to be prepared for it. I can do a detailed writeup why if anyone's interested.
Click to expand...

I am definitely interested to know what you're looking at. If you're right, I think we're basically screwed.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Ecotic said:
Every weekend I do my technical and fundamental analysis of the markets and economy for the week ahead, and everything has been looking sickly for months and getting worse. I feel the evidence now is strong that the business cycle is giving out, and Democrats need to be prepared for it. I can do a detailed writeup why if anyone's interested.
Click to expand...

That'd be great.

If the economy gives out, Dems are probably screwed.
 
T

Teggy

Member
It almost seems like Trump desperately wants to be out of the presidential race and he's trying to say more and more outlandish things and none of them are working. I see him going home and screaming to Melania, "what the hell is wrong with these people!"

But in reality I know he's just a nutbag.
 
G

Giant Panda

Member
One of my professors had my small class pick economic issues facing black people, with each person choosing a different topic. He then wanted us to combine our pieces into one and try to get it published. Well, he wrote an introduction for it that is typical Free Republic level drivel. Some paraphrases: Why blacks vote for Democrats when if you look at history there's Lincoln, Dixiecrats, and KKK; Leftists trying to overthrow capitalism (Soviet Union and Cuba reference) by brainwashing blacks; etc.

Most of my classmates are fairly conservative and close-minded, so I bet they agree. Tales from a conservative college...
 
S

Sianos

Member
It's the "whites killed by blacks" number that I find most suspect. I could understand the intra-racial homicide percentages being higher just as result of segregation due to factors such as discriminatory housing practices, white flight, etc. - but I'm going to need to see some raw numbers on that "81% of white deaths caused by black people.

Also, as usual the GOP seems to be going for the genetic determinism "black people are inherently inferior/predisposed to violence" line of reasoning as opposed to the more realistic "people who are oppressed both socially and economically and who suffer from stereotype effects due to societal attitudes treating them as violent criminals from birth are more likely to be driven to violence"... and I'm still very, very suspicious of these statistics. Going to need some hard data here.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
pigeon said:
I am definitely interested to know what you're looking at. If you're right, I think we're basically screwed.
Click to expand...

First, let me preface by saying that the markets reflect what’s happening in the economy. If the markets are down it’s because the underlying companies and the economy at large are experiencing trouble.

Basically all the leading indicators just keep breaking down and the markets stay at their highs after the Aug. 24th flash crash due to the cap weighted over performance of few high capitalization companies. Let me start with the first chart, the divergences chart. The grey line is the S&P 500 index. The 10 largest companies in the S&P 500 are up 13.9% for the year while the other 490 are down -5.8% (red line). That’s very bad when you have a literal handful of companies holding up the markets and the GDP growth rate, and there's going to be a very narrow door when everyone realizes it and wants out. Earnings per share are down year over year for the first time since 2009, that’s very significant. Insider buying (purple line) is down. High yield bonds relative to 7-year treasuries (blue line) are down. Looking at the second chart, the very strong multi-year trendline up has been broken and it's very unlikely it will be reclaimed. From a technical perspective, these divergences among the leading indicators have to be resolved, and it's probably going to be the downside, which reflects what's happening in the overall economy.

23170070786_b78037abe6_b.jpg


23173997106_cdb6dcb404_b.jpg


23200989015_abe6093823_b.jpg
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Now, as to what's fundamentally ailing the economy, the dollar has risen 25% from summer '14, and it's badly hurting American competitiveness by making our exports much less competitive globally. Europe has been in bad shape for a while now, and a QE spree there hasn’t spurred inflation but it has definitely materially strengthened the U.S. dollar. There can be no brushing aside that American companies are suffering and are going to continue to suffer if the dollar is uncompetitive, and right now it's sitting at the extreme highs since 2008 and climbing.

22592697924_533eb3906b_b.jpg
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Commodities are the bellweather of global aggregate demand. Look at the CRB commodities index, it looks absolutely terrible due to the well known slowdown in China and developing countries. The all important copper is so low that it's below the current cost of production for many, maybe even most, manufacturers. If global demand was healthy then commodities prices wouldn't be absolute dogshit right now.

23195367566_1140d3d5fd_b.jpg


22926116030_2276400cbe_b.jpg
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Business cycles typically last 5-7 years and we're approaching completion of the seventh or eighth year (depending on where you started counting). Using a normal distribution with a mean of 6 years and a (generous) standard deviation of 2.5 years, the chances of completing an 8th or 9th year without a reset in the business cycle are well, very low. Bear in mind I'm not saying we're about to fall off a cliff like 2008 or anything, I'm just saying that the evidence I'm seeing is saying we're experiencing the beginnings of a natural, contractionary slowdown that characterizes the end of a multi-year business cycle.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Transition plans begins today and tomorrow. I expect Jay Dardenne to be offered a position.

Melinda Deslatte ‏@MelindaDeslatte 3m3 minutes ago
State Sen. Ben Nevers will be @JohnBelforLA chief of staff and will lead the transition team. #LaGov #lalege
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-in charge of SuperPAC that helped Edwards.

Julia O'DonoghueVerified account ‏@JSODonoghue 2m2 minutes ago
Newell Normand is one of the chairs of @JohnBelforLA's transition team.
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Newell Normand is the Sheriff of Jefferson Parish.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xPztS2_FG4
http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/10/private_investigator_david_vit.html

Keith Boykin
‏@keithboykin
The election of John Bel Edwards will bring health care to 225,000 Louisiana residents.
Click to expand...

fantastic news.


UPDATE:

Julia O'Donoghue ‏@JSODonoghue 2m2 minutes ago
On executive orders, @JohnBelforLA has already said he is issued an executive order to protect state workers who are LGBT.
Click to expand...
 
Tarkus

Tarkus

Member
I'm dropping my support for Donald Trump. The last few days have been too much for me.

Looking at Rubio, but I'm not that happy with him either. Fuck.
 
D

Diablos

Member
I can't believe Trumps is saying the BLM protester deserved to get beat up by his crowd.

Incitement. That's the best word I can think of. What he's doing is incitement.

At some point his rhetoric is going to catch up to him. Right?
 
A

Aureon

Please do not let me serve on a jury. I am actually a crazy person.
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
As hate speech from Republican candidates reaches 1960s levels, Dawkins mocks the idea that Muslims are an oppressed minority:

https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/668369696526331904
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Well, to be fair, it depends where.
The vast majority of the world's Muslims are not an oppressed minority.

I.. really can't understand what dawkins is trying to say, though? What's the context here?

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Trump retweets impossibly racist "What about Black on Black crime?!?!" meme:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/668520614697820160

CUcMHOIVEAA6Wm1.jpg


These last two days have seemed to honestly frighten Nate Silver into thinking Trump might be an actual Nazi:
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The hell is that statistic, anyway? Is it even a quarter accurate?
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Diablos said:
I can't believe Trumps is saying the BLM protester deserved to get beat up by his crowd.

Incitement. That's the best word I can think of. What he's doing is incitement.

At some point his rhetoric is going to catch up to him. Right?
Click to expand...

It has to. It just has to.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
So when Trump or Cruz win the nomination, do Establishment Republicans split away from the party and run Rubio or Kasich or Christie as a third-party?
Click to expand...

There's really no point, it'd just be a repeat of 1912. Roosevelt and Taft even had a combined majority and they still lost handily when split.
 
D

dramatis

Member
Ecotic said:
First, let me preface by saying that the markets reflect what’s happening in the economy. If the markets are down it’s because the underlying companies and the economy at large are experiencing trouble.
Click to expand...
Things like this are scarier for the 2016 election than any Republican candidate. Next year probably isn't going to be so smooth sailing after all.
 
Q

QuiteWhittle

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
So when Trump or Cruz win the nomination, do Establishment Republicans split away from the party and run Rubio or Kasich or Christie as a third-party?
Click to expand...

They'll just tank the loss, have another fantastic midterm deepening their control of congress, and run Governor Rubio in 2020 with full support of the base.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
So when Trump or Cruz win the nomination, do Establishment Republicans split away from the party and run Rubio or Kasich or Christie as a third-party?
Click to expand...

Why would they ever do this? There's no motivation for it, it'd just further erode their control over the party when they would get blamed for inevitable electoral disaster. What do you think stabbing Cruz or Trump in the back would do to their already unruly base?
 
A

Abinash117

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
So when Trump or Cruz win the nomination, do Establishment Republicans split away from the party and run Rubio or Kasich or Christie as a third-party?
Click to expand...

They going to whatever it takes to take those guys down, I would imagine. Since they would do very much damage to the GOP. If they win still the GOP wouldn't know what to do I think. maybe pressure them to cool their rhetoric . If Hillary is in, I suspect some would privately support her. Although, I'm not an official so I wouldn't know what the GOP would really do.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Basileus777 said:
Why would they ever do this? There's no motivation for it, it'd just further erode their control over the party when they would get blamed for inevitable electoral disaster. What do you think stabbing Cruz or Trump in the back would do to their already unruly base?
Click to expand...

I don't know if Republicans want their political future to be harmed via association to a fascist campaign that got started by hatred of Hispanics or via association with Ted Cruz's hatred of LGBT people.
 
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