Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Maybe he wins Florida.
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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print
- Thread starter ivysaur12
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I don't see why he can't win Florida and keep going.I shorted Rubio at 56 cents because I think he's overhyped and not at all trusted by the nutjobs that form the majority of the Republican party. Honestly I think Cruz has a better shot than Rubio; he's actually held office, so he's viewed as experienced, but he also has outsider appeal and nutjob cred.
Which early state does Rubio win? Not Iowa, that's for sure. New Hampshire? The establishment vote there is legit split like five ways. No chance in hell in South Carolina. If he bombs all of those he's done.
If I'm right, I'm getting a pretty good return on anyone-but-Rubio too.
Maybe he wins Florida.
Guliani proved you can't wait until Florida. Also, Trump is crushing him there right now. I believe that Jeb is stubborn enough to hold out for Florida as well.
I swear Rubio sucks in interviews. This is much more softball than the last interview I saw with Wallace, but he's still having a hard time. He always seems flustered.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UT3D53VLLI
"These are obviously common sense applications and you can vet them with...common sense."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UT3D53VLLI
"These are obviously common sense applications and you can vet them with...common sense."
If Trump wins three of the first four contests (IA/NH/SC/NV) and Jeb - or any other establishment/mainstream candidate, really - holds-out into Florida, the odds of Rubio overcoming the bump/momentum that Trump has would be daunting. Trump would have one hell of a time pumping the media up with his nonstop trademark "I CAN WIN!" And "VOTE FOR THE WINNER!" rhetoric. Winner bumps aren't as big as they were in the past, but a few percentage points gained in the polls after each primary/caucus victory could be decisive.
The idea of leaving horse heads in candidates' beds sounds about right. They need to narrow the field for one establishment figure to have a shot, and they need to do so, like, now.
One potential complication: I tend to think that Trump left the independent run open on ABC yesterday as a warning shot aimed right at the party establishment. Mess with the process too much - distribute too many horse heads, for example - and he'll fuck them over with his usual Trumpy flair.
I still don't see how this ends happily for the party.
The idea of leaving horse heads in candidates' beds sounds about right. They need to narrow the field for one establishment figure to have a shot, and they need to do so, like, now.
One potential complication: I tend to think that Trump left the independent run open on ABC yesterday as a warning shot aimed right at the party establishment. Mess with the process too much - distribute too many horse heads, for example - and he'll fuck them over with his usual Trumpy flair.
I still don't see how this ends happily for the party.
I can't see how Rubio gets past the immigration reform issue. So far it's been the issue of the Republican primary.
What he has advocated will look like amnesty to the base. Trump will never stop pointing this out, or using his race against him as the reason he is for immigration reform.
Every time Rubio talks about it he uses a degree of nuance; the immigration issue isn't simple, it will require fix X, Y and Z. Trump boils it down simply; we kick em out and build a wall.
So what does Rubio do? Flank Trump from the right and try the mother of all pivots in the general? Would the GOP base even believe that?
What he has advocated will look like amnesty to the base. Trump will never stop pointing this out, or using his race against him as the reason he is for immigration reform.
Every time Rubio talks about it he uses a degree of nuance; the immigration issue isn't simple, it will require fix X, Y and Z. Trump boils it down simply; we kick em out and build a wall.
So what does Rubio do? Flank Trump from the right and try the mother of all pivots in the general? Would the GOP base even believe that?
Basileus777
Member
So what does Rubio do? Flank Trump from the right and try the mother of all pivots in the general? Would the GOP base even believe that?
They already have Ted Cruz if they want to hear extreme ideas from a Senator.
Just watched the xfiles ep with the golem tonight and reminded me that Trump is basically the right wing uber golem.If Trump wins three of the first four contests (IA/NH/SC/NV) and Jeb - or any other establishment/mainstream candidate, really - holds-out into Florida, the odds of Rubio overcoming the bump/momentum that Trump has would be daunting. Trump would have one hell of a time pumping the media up with his nonstop trademark "I CAN WIN!" And "VOTE FOR THE WINNER!" rhetoric. Winner bumps aren't as big as they were in the past, but a few percentage points gained in the polls after each primary/caucus victory could be decisive.
The idea of leaving horse heads in candidates' beds sounds about right. They need to narrow the field for one establishment figure to have a shot, and they need to do so, like, now.
One potential complication: I tend to think that Trump left the independent run open on ABC yesterday as a warning shot aimed right at the party establishment. Mess with the process too much - distribute too many horse heads, for example - and he'll fuck them over with his usual Trumpy flair.
I still don't see how this ends happily for the party.
Retromelon
Member
.I swear Rubio sucks
I dare anyone that reads this to produce a less exciting candidate than rubio. He has never done or said one exciting, inspiring, or funny thing. Literally every other person running is more chocolate to his vanilla. Marcos blandness is infuriating. Being hispanic is not enough to make up for a total lack of personality
I shorted Rubio at 56 cents because I think he's overhyped and not at all trusted by the nutjobs that form the majority of the Republican party. Honestly I think Cruz has a better shot than Rubio; he's actually held office, so he's viewed as experienced, but he also has outsider appeal and nutjob cred.
Which early state does Rubio win? Not Iowa, that's for sure. New Hampshire? The establishment vote there is legit split like five ways. No chance in hell in South Carolina. If he bombs all of those he's done.
If I'm right, I'm getting a pretty good return on anyone-but-Rubio too.
Most of my money is on Trump, though. Swinging for the fences.
That's a pretty good bet. I don't see where Rubio wins early either, and if he doesn't win somewhere early he's gone. I still think Rubio could see a January surge from a base eager to win, but they seem to be deluded into thinking this election is theirs and strategic voting isn't necessary. I wouldn't peg Rbuio's chances at more than 25% though.
Trump was absolutely brilliant to go hard right on immigration, it's the one area no other candidate can challenge him on from the center because the base is so fanatical about it. It's effectively papered over all of Trump's liberal to moderate stances in the past.
Too easy.
I dare anyone that reads this to produce a less exciting candidate than rubio. He has never done or said one exciting, inspiring, or funny thing. Literally every other person running is more chocolate to his vanilla. Marcos blandness is infuriating. Being hispanic is not enough to make up for a total lack of personality
https://vine.co/v/eYKBzEthXjq
Also, Jim Gilmore
Retromelon
Member
I watched that vine 20 times. Same with the hoodie gif. Jeb is a legend.
Also I always complained about people saying "who" about Jindal but I literally don't know who Jim gilmore is. I'm sure Jim webb was that other guy in the first dem debate..
I almost started crying with laughter when the rand hero music moment happened.
Also I always complained about people saying "who" about Jindal but I literally don't know who Jim gilmore is. I'm sure Jim webb was that other guy in the first dem debate..
I almost started crying with laughter when the rand hero music moment happened.
Jim Gilmore hasn't been invited to a debate yet because he's polling at 0.0%. Walker was indisputably the most boring candidate on the main stage. Rand has a really dull voice but he has epic hero music.I watched that vine 20 times. Same with the hoodie gif. Jeb is a legend.
Also I always complained about people saying "who" about Jindal but I literally don't know who Jim gilmore is. I'm sure Jim webb was that other guy in the first dem debate..
Bonus:
https://vine.co/v/e2MIIlrAT0F
https://vine.co/v/elDtELUAOpB
Grab your "I Miss W" hat today
You can tell this is meant to target millennials because it's vertical.
You can tell this is meant to target millennials because it's vertical.
Why would they even do that?Grab your "I Miss W" hat today
You can tell this is meant to target millennials because it's vertical.
Like, they want people to remember dubya?
Also, not only vertical video but vertical title at the end?
"I miss W. :,(Why would they even do that?
Like, they want people to remember dubya?
Also, not only vertical video but vertical title at the end?
Wait a minute! I can vote for the next best thing "
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Grab your "I Miss W" hat today
You can tell this is meant to target millennials because it's vertical.
This is the difference between the Dems and GOP. You think they ever made "I miss Jimmy Carter" hats? Hell, they ran away from Bill Clinton in 2000, a guy with the highest numbers we've seen.
I just fucking love these GOP Vines.
Make Transylvania Great Again
Ted Cruz does impressions
Jeb's secret
Badass Jeb
Make Transylvania Great Again
Ted Cruz does impressions
Jeb's secret
Badass Jeb
Avon Barksdale
Member
This is the difference between the Dems and GOP. You think they ever made "I miss Jimmy Carter" hats? Hell, they ran away from Bill Clinton in 2000, a guy with the highest numbers we've seen.
Jimmy Carter still shows up at the DNCs. Unless Jeb! is the nominee, you won't see W at any RNCs ever.
RustyNails
Member
You dont miss W after Bumbama crashed the economy and let terrorists kill americans?Why would they even do that?
Like, they want people to remember dubya?
Also, not only vertical video but vertical title at the end?
BertramCooper
Banned
Man, Trump's almost singular obsession with polls is really telling.
This is just a colossal game for him. What a psycho.
This is just a colossal game for him. What a psycho.
Man, Trump's almost singular obsession with polls is really telling.
This is just a colossal game for him. What a psycho.
It's his ego, he can't stand not being on top. He's gonna be so salty if he loses this thing.
Glad to see JBE got elected, just as I predicted.
Sure you did: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=185097404&postcount=15451
RustyNails
Member
Sarcasm is a lost art
Sarcasm is a lost art
Who can tell anymore? We live in a world of diablosing and Donald Trump doing his best Hitler as the GOP front runner.
RustyNails
Member
Trump's gonna Trump to stay in the news. I don't think we heard the craziest, worst shit from him yet, sadly.Who can tell anymore? We live in a world of diablosing and Donald Trump doing his best Hitler as the GOP front runner.
Trump's gonna Trump to stay in the news. I don't think we heard the craziest, worst shit from him yet, sadly.
I know I said the same thing a while back, but I'm not sure how much further he can go at this point without calling for lynchings in the streets. He doesn't have a lot of road left.
When Trump decides we should start executing people in the streets, I'm out.
I'm gonna regret passing on that gig in England if Trump gets elected.
Ha. What a weirdo.
Yellowtail
Member
Politico is convinced Iowa will come down to Cruz vs Rubio. But really the article is all about Cruz's strength and Rubio's "potential".
And again, why are the Rubio campaign so blithe about the importance of organization:
And again, why are the Rubio campaign so blithe about the importance of organization:
For all Cruzs organizational advantages in Iowa at the moment, Rubios team remains confident they will continue to close in. Other campaigns might like to talk about their organization, said Jack Whitver, Rubios Iowa campaign co-chairman. We talk about our candidate."
And again, why are the Rubio campaign so blithe about the importance of organization:
Geez, this makes me feel all warm and fuzzy for some reason..
RustyNails
Member
Sorry but this whole talk of "them" is off putting. I get what you're saying but I disagree on some of the salient points."They want to kill us because we let women drive" is such an annoyingly wrong talking point.
You might say that one aspect of their motivation is that western culture is seeping into the middle east, and they're trying to defend their backward culture, but how do people fall for cartoonish characterizations that Rubio is painting them as? They are still humans, and no human is going to kill themselves in a suicide bombing over a woman driving a car on the other side of the world.
You don't have to sympathize with them to try to understand them. And I think it's pretty damn important to know your enemy before you try and deal with them.
If Rubio actually thinks this, that just proves his knowledge of foreign affairs is so poor, he'll never have a solution that might work, regardless of how much of a hawk or dove he is.
Education is not a western or an eastern concept. The oldest degree granting University in the world was set up by a Muslim female nobility during the Caliphate in Maghreb.
Out of 59 Muslim majority OIC states, only one does not have rules that allow women to drive. There is a debate in that country right now between ultra orthodox and others about this. With all the changes happening, we will most likely see them changing the laws incrementally soon. Because right now those women have a personal chauffer to drive them around, and that is not cheap to maintain.
Iran has more women going to colleges and universities than men.
3 of those countries elected women to highest office in land.
The attitudes however are shaped by more complex issues. You will find shit people everywhere even in liberal utopias. Rubio is using fear of the terrorists and their backward shit to fearmonger about Muslims, refugees and Islam in general.
Politico is convinced Iowa will come down to Cruz vs Rubio. But really the article is all about Cruz's strength and Rubio's "potential".
And again, why are the Rubio campaign so blithe about the importance of organization:
Politico put out tons of hit pieces on Trump early on, talking about how his demise was imminent. After every debate they tried to push Jeb Bush (LOL) as the winner and Trump as the big loser. I'm pretty sure they're trying to carry out the GOP establishment agenda.
Politico is convinced Iowa will come down to Cruz vs Rubio. But really the article is all about Cruz's strength and Rubio's "potential".
And again, why are the Rubio campaign so blithe about the importance of organization:
Isn't Trump like miles ahead of both with his organization in Iowa? Not to mention his actual numbers. How the hell is it going to come down to Cruz vs Rubio?
I am still with the prediction market, Rubio will be the last man standing here.
No way, Nazi Trump is totally undervalued. If Jeb was polling at Trump's level he'd be the prospective nominee.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Sorry but this whole talk of "them" is off putting. I get what you're saying but I disagree on some of the salient points.
Education is not a western or an eastern concept. The oldest degree granting University in the world was set up by a Muslim female nobility during the Caliphate in Maghreb.
Out of 59 Muslim majority OIC states, only one does not have rules that allow women to drive. There is a debate in that country right now between ultra orthodox and others about this. With all the changes happening, we will most likely see them changing the laws incrementally soon. Because right now those women have a personal chauffer to drive them around, and that is not cheap to maintain.
Iran has more women going to colleges and universities than men.
3 of those countries elected women to highest office in land.
The attitudes however are shaped by more complex issues. You will find shit people everywhere even in liberal utopias. Rubio is using fear of the terrorists and their backward shit to fearmonger about Muslims, refugees and Islam in general.
Are you talking about me saying that maybe one aspect of it is defending their idea of culture from western influence? I was talking about ISIS, not Islam as a whole.
Otherwise, we seem to agree.
Isn't Trump like miles ahead of both with his organization in Iowa? Not to mention his actual numbers. How the hell is it going to come down to Cruz vs Rubio?
No way, Nazi Trump is totally undervalued. If Jeb was polling at Trump's level he'd be the prospective nominee.
1. where are you getting the org numbers? I've been looking for them for a while now.
2. I take back my bet on donating to Trump's campaign if he won IA and NH. Don't want my name associated with his recent comments over the months.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
I'm dropping my support for Donald Trump. The last few days have been too much for me.
Looking at Rubio, but I'm not that happy with him either. Fuck.
Good on you.
Even though I'm liberal, I do wish the GOP field was better. Makes for a healthier process overall. I say this as a resident of Chicago, home of corrupt Democrats who could use better challengers.
RustyNails
Member
Right. I guess we should not fall into GOP trap and make it clear that we're talking about ISIS and not the entire 1.5 bn people. You see how he says "they hate us cuz our women get to drive cars"? That's a thinly veiled generalization of all the Muslims...I see it as the next generation of dog whistling: blast Muslims and Islam and if anyone disagrees, say you're talking about terrorists, intentionally blurring the line further.Are you talking about me saying that maybe one aspect of it is defending their idea of culture from western influence? I was talking about ISIS, not Islam as a whole.
Otherwise, we seem to agree.
BertramCooper
Banned
Trump is a single-issue candidate, and his issue is blatant racism.
If he wins the nomination, I'm going to really start asking Republican friends and family members why they're still Republicans.
You can't say your party isn't racist and then watch them nominate Donald Fucking Trump.
If he wins the nomination, I'm going to really start asking Republican friends and family members why they're still Republicans.
You can't say your party isn't racist and then watch them nominate Donald Fucking Trump.
Yellowtail
Member
Beats me. Also I only just found out that the Republican Iowa caucuses are done by secret ballots. I'd long assumed they involved public declarations of support like the Democratic process, which made me question the durability of Trump's support on caucus night. But if it's true that the disparity in Trump's support in telephone and Internet polls is fueled by voters being too embarrassed to publicly state their support, then a reverse Bradley effect could help him beat out everyone else in Iowa.Isn't Trump like miles ahead of both with his organization in Iowa? Not to mention his actual numbers. How the hell is it going to come down to Cruz vs Rubio.
1. where are you getting the org numbers? I've been looking for them for a while now.
2. I take back my bet on donating to Trump's campaign if he won IA and NH. Don't want my name associated with his recent comments over the months.
The Boston Globe did a piece a few weeks back where they examined each of the GOP candidates' ground game and organization. From what they found Trump was the only one taking it seriously. The article made the rounds in the thread when it got published.
RustyNails
Member
..b..but Rubio is running his Iowa groundgame out of starbucks!
Coffee grounds...b..but Rubio is running his Iowa groundgame out of starbucks!
Politico put out tons of hit pieces on Trump early on, talking about how his demise was imminent. After every debate they tried to push Jeb Bush (LOL) as the winner and Trump as the big loser. I'm pretty sure they're trying to carry out the GOP establishment agenda.
Let's not forget their article last week about how the GOP establishment thought that the Paris attacks were going to be THE moment when the electorate saw how experienced and presidential Jeb! and Rubio were and how much of a lightweight Trump and Carson were.
They nailed that one.
Aaron Strife
Banned
ABC/WaPo poll showing Hillary is trusted more than the Republicans on dealing with terrorism.
Can't link but it's like 50-41 against Trump and the only one who comes close is Bush.
Can't link but it's like 50-41 against Trump and the only one who comes close is Bush.
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