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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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B

Basileus777

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I don't know if Republicans want their political future to be harmed via association to a fascist campaign that got started by hatred of Hispanics or via association with Ted Cruz's hatred of LGBT people.
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I don't see them splitting the party over it. They'd do their best to dissociate Trump or Cruz from down ticket races and then throw them under the bus when they lost.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Trump retweets impossibly racist "What about Black on Black crime?!?!" meme:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/668520614697820160

CUcMHOIVEAA6Wm1.jpg


These last two days have seemed to honestly frighten Nate Silver into thinking Trump might be an actual Nazi:
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I bet at least 93% of those "so called" blacks have refrigerators in their house as well.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Great interview on the guy who ran Anti-Vitter GumboPAC talking about the LA GOV race.

http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/11/gumbo_pac_trey_ourso_qa.html

NOLA.com: What ads did you produce that you thought were most successful?

Ourso: Looking back on it, the ad that really helped a lot was the one with (Republican primary candidates Jay) Dardenne and (Scott) Angelle where we took the clips of him from the debates. If you look at all of our commercials, we were speaking to the Angelle-Dardenne supporters. We weren't necessarily trying to appeal to the Vitter supporters, nor did we have to persuade the Edwards supporters. We knew if we could get a high percentage of Dardenne-Angelle supporters, we'd be in good shape.

That particular commercial, I think we launched it the Tuesday after the primary -- so about four days later -- I think in our mind it froze the race. It gave those folks who had voted for either Scott Angelle or Jay Dardenne a moment's pause to remember why they didn't vote for David Vitter and also give them permission not to vote for him" in the runoff election.
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ad in question:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Osxl8YfV2Q

NOLA.com: Of everything that was said in the televised debates, did you think there was anything that was key to Edwards' victory?

Ourso: I think what people really liked was about the debates from John Bel's perspective is he didn't cower down to David Vitter. He stood his ground and he spoke the truth. David Vitter's been a very successful politician for many years, mostly operating from strength and power and in many cases intimidation. I think John Bel Edwards earned a lot of respect from standing his ground.

NOLA.com: Will this be looked back on as a historic race?

Ourso: I think it's going to be looked back on as a historic race just in the sense of where it started and where it finished. I think we have to wait for a couple years to see what the overall the dynamics of it -- from not only the state, but now John Bel will be the only Democratic governor in the south and there's only one (Democratic) U.S. senator, and that's in Florida.

So I think time will tell. But from a purely electoral standpoint, it's historic.
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more in link. If its one thing you gotta give Edwards and his tem credit for its fighting back.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
ivysaur12 said:
This is the quickest I've ever seen anyone start diablosing :p
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Well the last Democratic Governor to get a second term was Edwin Edwards in 1975. Blanco was too unpopular due to Katrina to seek a second term. Edwards went to prison after his fourth nonconsecutive and final term. Roehmer party switched midway through his first term and lost in the primary to Duke and Edwards.

*Edwards beat Treen in 1983 for his third term but conceded to Roehmer four years later before they had their election runoff. Edwards was term limited in 1979 and Treen was first R since Reconstruction.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Cheebo said:
You don't switch party chair mid-election cycle, no chance at all barring a major scandal. It's not something you do well under a year before a party convention.
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Yes but surely enough Democrats see how ineffective she is? Can't they force the issue?
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Diablos said:
Yes but surely enough Democrats see how ineffective she is? Can't they force the issue?
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The chaos of bringing in a new chair and their staff a year before the election would far outweigh any benefits the newcomer would bring.. DWS certainly has her flaws but another person isn't going to magically fix the Dems off year voting problems.
 
M

Makai

Member
Ecotic said:
First, let me preface by saying that the markets reflect what’s happening in the economy. If the markets are down it’s because the underlying companies and the economy at large are experiencing trouble.
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As far as I know, the trend is towards less and less publicly traded companies. Maybe the privately held companies are outperforming the publicly traded ones.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Ecotic said:
First, let me preface by saying that the markets reflect what’s happening in the economy. If the markets are down it’s because the underlying companies and the economy at large are experiencing trouble.

Basically all the leading indicators just keep breaking down and the markets stay at their highs after the Aug. 24th flash crash due to the cap weighted over performance of few high capitalization companies. Let me start with the first chart, the divergences chart. The grey line is the S&P 500 index. The 10 largest companies in the S&P 500 are up 13.9% for the year while the other 490 are down -5.8% (red line). That’s very bad when you have a literal handful of companies holding up the markets and the GDP growth rate, and there's going to be a very narrow door when everyone realizes it and wants out. Earnings per share are down year over year for the first time since 2009, that’s very significant. Insider buying (purple line) is down. High yield bonds relative to 7-year treasuries (blue line) are down. Looking at the second chart, the very strong multi-year trendline up has been broken and it's very unlikely it will be reclaimed. From a technical perspective, these divergences among the leading indicators have to be resolved, and it's probably going to be the downside, which reflects what's happening in the overall economy.



Now, as to what's fundamentally ailing the economy, the dollar has risen 25% from summer '14, and it's badly hurting American competitiveness by making our exports much less competitive globally. Europe has been in bad shape for a while now, and a QE spree there hasn’t spurred inflation but it has definitely materially strengthened the U.S. dollar. There can be no brushing aside that American companies are suffering and are going to continue to suffer if the dollar is uncompetitive, and right now it's sitting at the extreme highs since 2008 and climbing.



Commodities are the bellweather of global aggregate demand. Look at the CRB commodities index, it looks absolutely terrible due to the well known slowdown in China and developing countries. The all important copper is so low that it's below the current cost of production for many, maybe even most, manufacturers. If global demand was healthy then commodities prices wouldn't be absolute dogshit right now.



Business cycles typically last 5-7 years and we're approaching completion of the seventh or eighth year (depending on where you started counting). Using a normal distribution with a mean of 6 years and a (generous) standard deviation of 2.5 years, the chances of completing an 8th or 9th year without a reset in the business cycle are well, very low. Bear in mind I'm not saying we're about to fall off a cliff like 2008 or anything, I'm just saying that the evidence I'm seeing is saying we're experiencing the beginnings of a natural, contractionary slowdown that characterizes the end of a multi-year business cycle.
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I think it's fair to bring up a discussion from our past, where both him and I were in agreement on a pull back, but I thought his prediction waited too long by saying sometime up until march, and predicted too large of a drop.

I predicted an drop very soon from August 2014, and a smaller drop in between 24 and 36 point drop on the SPY. It ended up being a 12 point drop in October, making it even smaller than I predicted.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=126532022#post126532022

This time, I think he's more correct to be very bearish on the technical. It seems very set up to be hitting a strong double top, similar to what you saw in 2007, which would be a pattern that often creates a new long term trend in the opposite direction. Probably something lasting at least a year, and going down at least 20%

Stochastic oscillators are one of my specialties, and the weekly is very overbought, with the daily quickly headed to overbought. Usually it rubberbands once it hits overbought or oversold and it is seeming unlikely to find enough strength to become embedded in that range, given the resistances ahead. What that means is a pullback in the next week or two, completing that very scary double top pattern.

That said, I would not jump in on selling until the pattern finishes completing, but that is the pattern that I'm seeing becoming built. I would be very neutral over the next two weeks, and start selling if the market starts selling.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
thepotatoman said:
I think it's fair to bring up a discussion from our past, where both him and I were in agreement on a pull back, but I thought his prediction waited too long by saying sometime up until march, and predicted too large of a drop.

...

That said, I would not jump in on selling until the pattern finishes completing, but that is the pattern that I'm seeing becoming built. I would be very neutral over the next two weeks, and start selling if the market starts selling.
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I think there was a fundamental misunderstanding on what I was trying to point out in that 2014 post. I was trying to say the multi-year rally was coming to the end of its rope, not predict anything in the extreme short term. In that sense I was accurate, the market has been stalled for a year, like an airplane coasting in the sky for a while after its engines were shut off. I didn't mean to imply that the breakdown would happen in March, just that March was when the triangle definitively ran out.

I agree with the double top pattern forming. I see the Santa Claus rally causing the NYA composite to restest the top of the trendline by late December, failing and forming a double top, and then breaking down over 2016. The point of today's post was to show that I believe this break down will reflect what's happening in the overall economy, to the detriment of Democrats' chances.
 
M

Makai

Member
"The last quarter, it was just announced, our gross domestic product -- a sign of strength, right? But not for us. It was below zero. Who ever heard of this? It's never below zero." - Donald Trump
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
I love how the Koch brothers' CATO institute is calling out the GOP as being fucking ridiculous regarding refugees. We need Scott Walker's empty suit up on the debate stage right now.

New odds on Predictwise:

Rubio: 48%
Trump: 22%
Cruz: 14%
Jeb!: 9%
Christie: 3%
Carson: 3%

No one else above 0%.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
Makai said:
"The last quarter, it was just announced, our gross domestic product -- a sign of strength, right? But not for us. It was below zero. Who ever heard of this? It's never below zero." - Donald Trump
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Well, he's not wrong. It's never below 0.

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I love how the Koch brothers' CATO institute is calling out the GOP as being fucking ridiculous regarding refugees. We need Scott Walker's empty suit up on the debate stage right now.

New odds on Predictwise:

Rubio: 48%
Trump: 22%
Cruz: 14%
Jeb!: 9%
Christie: 3%
Carson: 3%

No one else above 0%.
Click to expand...

IIRC some big evangelical group is raking them over the coals about refugees too. It's pretty amazing. They successfully picked a position that pisses off the Christian and business right. All they have is the racists on this one.
 
A

Aaron

Member
Teggy said:
It almost seems like Trump desperately wants to be out of the presidential race and he's trying to say more and more outlandish things and none of them are working. I see him going home and screaming to Melania, "what the hell is wrong with these people!"

But in reality I know he's just a nutbag.
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Turns out Trump's great rich uncle died, and the stipulation in the will is he has to spend a billion dollars and he'll gain a trillion, but he can't have anything to show for the money he spends, and can't let other people know what he's doing. Wait until he unveils his 'none of the above' campaign slogan. Then it'll start making sense.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Teggy said:
It almost seems like Trump desperately wants to be out of the presidential race and he's trying to say more and more outlandish things and none of them are working. I see him going home and screaming to Melania, "what the hell is wrong with these people!"
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This is a perfect SNL skit.
 
J

Jack Remington

Banned
Ted Cruz is around 28% to win the Republican nomination on predictit, meaning you can buy No (betting he won't win it) shares for $0.78, which cash out at a dollar each if the nominee is anyone besides Ted Cruz.

I took about a $400 position on this and am thinking of buying in for more. There's just no way he gets it. Only Rubio and Trump have a serious chance at this point, IMO.

I also have another $200 or so in the market shorting Jeb at about 85 cents per No share, so just over a 10% return once predictit takes their 5% cut.

Honestly there's good money to be made if you're willing to wait awhile to get it.

Hillary to win the Democratic nomination is about 89 cents a share right now... took a small position in that, but it's not a great return.

Now if you want to swing for the fences:

Trump to win the Republican nomination: roughly 25 cents, so you basically quadruple your money. I have a small position here.

Hillary to win it all: under 60 cents, so you almost double your money, though this is a year out, so time value of money is a factor. I have about a hundred on this.

Rubio to win the Republican nomination: 45 cents. I still think it'll be Trump, so I'm not buying into this one yet.

Trump to win New Hampshire: 30-something cents. I have just over a hundred on this.
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
I've been trying to figure out what I'm going to do with my PredictIt money. I was gonna bet the max on Hillary to win it, but that's so far away that I'll just play with some other stocks in the meantime. I've been looking for good value from markets that resolve soon. I guess I should just look at polls and bet on the ones that say "Candidate to have over X% by this date."
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Makai said:
Marco Rubio with the Oscar bait
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"They want to kill us because we let women drive" is such an annoyingly wrong talking point.

You might say that one aspect of their motivation is that western culture is seeping into the middle east, and they're trying to defend their backward culture, but how do people fall for cartoonish characterizations that Rubio is painting them as? They are still humans, and no human is going to kill themselves in a suicide bombing over a woman driving a car on the other side of the world.

You don't have to sympathize with them to try to understand them. And I think it's pretty damn important to know your enemy before you try and deal with them.

If Rubio actually thinks this, that just proves his knowledge of foreign affairs is so poor, he'll never have a solution that might work, regardless of how much of a hawk or dove he is.
 
C

Cerium

Member
Jack Remington said:
Ted Cruz is around 28% to win the Republican nomination on predictit, meaning you can buy No (betting he won't win it) shares for $0.78, which cash out at a dollar each if the nominee is anyone besides Ted Cruz.

I took about a $400 position on this and am thinking of buying in for more. There's just no way he gets it. Only Rubio and Trump have a serious chance at this point, IMO.

I also have another $200 or so in the market shorting Jeb at about 85 cents per No share, so just over a 10% return once predictit takes their 5% cut.

Honestly there's good money to be made if you're willing to wait awhile to get it.

Hillary to win the Democratic nomination is about 89 cents a share right now... took a small position in that, but it's not a great return.

Now if you want to swing for the fences:

Trump to win the Republican nomination: roughly 25 cents, so you basically quadruple your money. I have a small position here.

Hillary to win it all: under 60 cents, so you almost double your money, though this is a year out, so time value of money is a factor. I have about a hundred on this.

Rubio to win the Republican nomination: 45 cents. I still think it'll be Trump, so I'm not buying into this one yet.

Trump to win New Hampshire: 30-something cents. I have just over a hundred on this.
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I shorted Rubio at 56 cents because I think he's overhyped and not at all trusted by the nutjobs that form the majority of the Republican party. Honestly I think Cruz has a better shot than Rubio; he's actually held office, so he's viewed as experienced, but he also has outsider appeal and nutjob cred.

Which early state does Rubio win? Not Iowa, that's for sure. New Hampshire? The establishment vote there is legit split like five ways. No chance in hell in South Carolina. If he bombs all of those he's done.

If I'm right, I'm getting a pretty good return on anyone-but-Rubio too.

Most of my money is on Trump, though. Swinging for the fences.
 
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