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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Melkr_ said:
Well yeah, going from a +41 lead to a +20 lead in a month is the definition of bad news for Hillary.

2016-democratic-nomination-for-president-2.jpg
Click to expand...

Anyone who thought she would hold a 40 point lead with an actual challenger in the race was delusional. It's more expected than anything else, if they were separated by less than 10 it would be bad news.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Thequietone said:
There is a kids table debate tonight. Graham, Santorum, Pataki, and Jindal. Gilmore didn't make the cut and Perry was supposed to be there, but he dropped out. I believe it is at 6 pm et.

I don't know about who is making the official thread, though.
Click to expand...
Gilmore didn't make the cut for the kiddie debate? Oh ye gods.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I still have a feeling Trump runs third party if he doesn't get the nomination.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Melkr_ said:
Well yeah, going from a +41 lead to a +20 lead in a month is the definition of bad news for Hillary.

2016-democratic-nomination-for-president-2.jpg
Click to expand...
Babby's first election?

Let me remove the suspense: Bernie will get a lot closer to Hillary during the Primary season. A lot. They will be between 3 to 6 points. He will even win Iowa or NH, or both. But he will drop out after super tuesday and endorse Hillary, and will stump for her till November 2016.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Yeah, Rand Paul's going to stroke-out at some point if Trump continues to lead. He told Wolf Blitzer that Trump as nominee would suffer the worst GOP defeat since 1964.

(About to flee work early, order some Chinese food, and get ready for the festivities!)
 
R

RustyNails

Member
HylianTom said:
Yeah, Rand Paul's going to stroke-out at some point if Trump continues to lead. He told Wolf Blitzer that Trump as nominee would suffer the worst GOP defeat since 1964.

(About to flee work early, order some Chinese food, and get ready for the festivities!)
Click to expand...
May God be with you, my child.
 
A

And_Gignac

Member
ivysaur12 said:
There is no way in which you could construct having a 20 point lead over your next challenger are "the definition of bad news".
Click to expand...

Having a drop in support of 21% in just one month constitutes nothing else than "bad news".*

Bam Bam tried to be witty with his remark, using a poll that actually has bad news for Hillary.

*Specially with Biden looming around.


RustyNails said:
Babby's first election?

Let me remove the suspense: Bernie will get a lot closer to Hillary during the Primary season. A lot. They will be between 3 to 6 points. He will even win Iowa or NH, or both. But he will drop out after super tuesday and endorse Hillary, and will stump for her till November 2016.
Click to expand...

wow you got it all figured it out. :p
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
So, the story with the DTF guy at the Trump event:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewi...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

What does it take to impersonate a Donald Trump supporter? As Jimmy Kimmel Live correspondent Jake Byrd discovered Tuesday night, all you need is a lot of enthusiasm, a vehement opposition to Obamacare and the media, and a cowboy hat.

Byrd went undercover as a Trump voter at The Donald’s speech yesterday in Dallas, Texas, disguised in a ‘Make America Great Again’ cowboy hat. He first met with real-life Trump supporters outside American Airlines Arena, goading them into putting “Trump stamps” on their lower backs and convincing them to join him in cheers of “DTF,” which he said stood for “Donald Trump Forever.” The acronym, first popularized by the MTV show “Jersey Shore,” actually means “down to fuck.”
Click to expand...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIMsKvbHN3g

arpepvp6qe6momeetncj.jpg


Melkr_ said:
Having a drop in support of 21% in just one month constitutes nothing else than "bad news".

Bam Bam tried to be witty with his remark, using a poll that actually has bad news for Hillary.
Click to expand...

Is this your first election as an adult? This is a legitimate question.

Let's say you have 100% support. Every single person in a group of 100 is going to vote for you. But then, the support drops to 80%. Now only 80% of the people in that group support you. That is bad news, even though you still hold a commanding lead over the group in question.

If, say, Hillary Clinton was going from 45% support to 25% support, yes, that's terrible news. But she's not. She still holds a commanding lead over all of her challengers. Until that changes, this is not "the definition of bad news." Honestly, you're schtick is starting to become really tiresome because of your inability to understand poll numbers within context.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
RustyNails said:
Whoever's doing the debate OT better be doing the Street Fighter theme, with a link to Guile's theme at the very start
Click to expand...

I was actually thinking of that, along with a Smash-style new challenger gif for Fiorina, but I didn't have the time. Stupid job, stupid need for money. :(

Why can't I survive on funny gifs and threads alone?
 
R

RustyNails

Member
B-Dubs said:
I was actually thinking of that, along with a Smash-style new challenger gif for Fiorina, but I didn't have the time. Stupid job, stupid need for money. :(

Why can't I survive on funny gifs and threads alone?
Click to expand...
When President Fiorina is elected, we are all going to lose our jobs anyway so why not be ahead of the pack and quit?
 
A

And_Gignac

Member
NeoXChaos said:
Not bad news. She's just suffering from a Poll-Deflating Feedback Loop

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hillary-clinton-is-in-a-self-reinforcing-funk/
Click to expand...


From Natan´s article:
t’s the candidates who play the long game, and play by the establishment’s rules, who usually win presidential nominations. Political parties have lots of ways to influence the race in favor of these candidates, from how they appoint superdelegates to how they schedule debates. Hundreds of millions of dollars are spent on advertising, meanwhile, and the bulk usually favors establishment candidates. And voters have a lot of time to make their decisions and can amend them as they go along — an insurgent candidate who wins Iowa or New Hampshire won’t necessarily have staying power if they’ve failed to build a broad coalition of support.
Click to expand...

LMAO, Bernie and Trump have him all mad and bothered. To the point of recurring to use undemocratic political behaviours as arguments to reassure his positions./ over complicated analysis. BUT DATA THOUGH.

Y2Kev said:
Melkr post the Lana gif so I can say "Hillary running from bad news"
Click to expand...

kii

I would but you dont make a gif #iconic by over using it. You have to be selective when to.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Melkr_ said:
Having a drop in support of 21% in just one month constitutes nothing else than "bad news".*
Click to expand...

This would have been the case is John Edwards came back to run against her.

She had such high support because no one was running or when Bernie did announce, no one knew who he was. Once it became an actual primary, her support was always going to drop.

It's not relevant, though. As long as her vs Bernie is 50%+ and Bernie can't even top 35%, it's all good news for Hillary. Even if he wins NH and/or Iowa, which he may, it won't matter. Those states are completely irrelevant for the Dem Primary. They matter for the GOP because there's 17 thousand contestants and they need to be whittled down. But with 2 or 3 for the Dems, meh.

Also, Hillary has the super delegates already locked. The Primary is not simply by vote count. Hillary got more votes than Obama but lost because Obama won more super delegates and some big states. Bernie has no chance in this realm. He's basically playing the game with his hand tied behind his back.

I could understand missing all this if it is your first go around. But the primary election isn't as democratic as some would like it to be.

LMAO, Bernie and Trump have him all mad and bothered. To the point of recurring to use undemocratic political behaviours as arguments to reassure his positions./ over complicated analysis. BUT DATA THOUGH.
Click to expand...

But he's right and numerous studies and data reflect this. It's why Romney was always going to win in 2012. It's why I kept telling people in Poli-Gaf Romney was going to win every time some clown rose in the polls. It was never in doubt and I was right.

Now, the GOP cycle this year is weird because there's a billion candidates and there's real anti-establishment sentiment in the GOP at a level never seen before (oh and who predicted back in 2012 this was coming in 2016 or 2020? That's right, me...).

Bernie can't win. No matter how much you or I or anyone else wants it. If Hillary has a scandal take her down, he still won't win. Biden will.
 
A

And_Gignac

Member
Black Mamba said:
But he's right and numerous studies and data reflect this. It's why Romney was always going to win in 2012. It's why I kept telling people in Poli-Gaf Romney was going to win every time some clown rose in the polls. It was never in doubt and I was right.

Now, the GOP cycle this year is weird because there's a billion candidates and there's real anti-establishment sentiment in the GOP at a level never seen before (oh and who predicted back in 2012 this was coming in 2016 or 2020? That's right, me...).

Bernie can't win. No matter how much you or I or anyone else wants it. If Hillary has a scandal take her down, he still won't win. Biden will.
Click to expand...

Anti-establishment politicians and parties that do not play by the establishment’s rules and still gain support and victories are a thing in modern democracies. Podemos, Syriza, SNP, UKIP, National Front in Europe; Jimmy Morales, MORENA & NDP (not so much, but eh) in North America are particular examples of this trend. Bernie and Trump too.

I find his reading of the situation, specially the part I quoted, to be extremely myopic and just a desperate attempt to deny that he and his staff were wrong about Trump (that he had a 5% perfect chance of winning the nomination or something) and Bernie’s chances (that he peaked in late July/early August).
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Melkr_ said:
Anti-establishment politicians and parties that do not play by the establishment’s rules and still gain support and victories are a thing in modern democracies. Podemos, Syriza, SNP, UKIP, National Front in Europe; Jimmy Morales, MORENA & NDP (not so much, but eh) in North America are particular examples of this trend. Bernie and Trump too.

I find his reading of the situation, specially the part I quoted, to be extremely myopic and just a desperate attempt to deny that he and his staff were wrong about Trump (that he had a 5% perfect chance of winning the nomination or something) and Bernie’s chances (that he peaked in late July/early August).
Click to expand...
Comparing Euro parliamentary voting systems with American electoral college is not going to help.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
The kiddie debate is what you have on in the background while you're doing housework so that you don't have to do it later on. All you really need to hear of Jindal and the others are random snips, and you get the idea.

That is, unless one of them says something really nasty about Trump.

Which makes me wonder.. How far can they go in criticizing him without curse words? I'd love to see a Back to the Future 3-esque moment where one of the candidates, exasperated, just proclaims loudly, "HE's AN ASSHOLE!"
 
K

kingkitty

Member
HylianTom said:
The kiddie debate is what you have on in the background while you're doing housework so that you don't have to do it later on. All you really need to hear of Jindal and the others are random snips, and you get the idea.
Click to expand...

It's what I'm probably gonna do.

I wonder if they'll even bother with a kiddie version in the next debate, since I figure it'll dwindle to 3 or 2 people by then.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Melkr_ said:
Anti-establishment politicians and parties that do not play by the establishment’s rules and still gain support and victories are a thing in modern democracies. Podemos, Syriza, SNP, UKIP, National Front in Europe; Jimmy Morales, MORENA & NDP (not so much, but eh) in North America are particular examples of this trend. Bernie and Trump too.

I find his reading of the situation, specially the part I quoted, to be extremely myopic and just a desperate attempt to deny that he and his staff were wrong about Trump (that he had a 5% perfect chance of winning the nomination or something) and Bernie’s chances (that he peaked in late July/early August).
Click to expand...

Those are not like the USA. Our system is so very different. You can't compare them.

And what trend is Bernie part of? What has he won? Santorum has won more to this date.

Yeah, Nate was wrong about Trump (I said so at the time) but only because he wasn't looking at it with the right data or namely there was no data for it! The same is not true for Bernie.

Regardless, Bernie isn't doing anything. Again, last time we discussed Bernie, I brought up the fact that Bernie's main constituencies were from people that don't vote. Whatever he's polling at now he's likely to get less because those people won't turn out.

I just hope you're big enough to eat the crow coming your way when the day comes. I'll be here if I'm wrong too, of course, but we know how so often people like to run away.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
NeoXChaos said:
Ronald Reagan's son on the Republican Party's obsession with his father.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/st...s-interview-donald-trump-213149#ixzz3lvFsDaFg
Click to expand...

What's interesting is how much distance there is now between Reagan and today. Ted Cruz was 18 when Reagan left office. Scott Walker was 21. Rand Paul was probably only politically aware for the last couple of years of Reagan's Presidency. The rest probably remember Reagan well but there's a few on that stage who may lay claim to Reagan's legacy without having much experienced Reagan's Presidency except as non-caring teenagers or very young adults.
 
I

Iolo

Member
HylianTom said:
Which makes me wonder.. How far can they go in criticizing him without curse words? I'd love to see a Back to the Future 3-esque moment where one of the candidates, exasperated, just proclaims loudly, "HE's AN ASSHOLE!"
Click to expand...

I've been thinking about exactly this quote since seeing BTTF3 on cable the other day. Unfortunately about a minute afterward, my building's fire alarm went off, and I've been unsatisfied ever since. Come to think of it this might actually be a good analogy for the debate.
 
R

Retromelon

Member
Bob is killing it. Huge applause
Lindsey is beating the shit out of santorum. "Hispanics are americans! Applause.
Santorums hairline is beating a hasty retreat
 
F

Farmboy

Member
Black Mamba said:
Also, Hillary has the super delegates already locked. The Primary is not simply by vote count. Hillary got more votes than Obama but lost because Obama won more super delegates and some big states. Bernie has no chance in this realm. He's basically playing the game with his hand tied behind his back.
Click to expand...

Actually, if 2016 plays out like 2008 did, many -- perhaps even most -- superdelegates will be cautious about overturning what they perceive to be the will of the voters, which they interpreted to be Obama in 2008 (based mostly on delegate count -- but it should be noted Obama also won the popular vote by most fair metrics, ie. ones that give him more than 0 votes in Michigan).

Superdelegates aren't 'locked' until they actually vote at the convention. Many superdelegates that pledged support to Hillary in 2008 switched to Obama when it became clear he had the nomination locked up. That could and should happen again with Bernie, if it becomes clear that he's winning a larger share of the 'normal' delegates.

(Obviously, I think this is incredibly unlikely: Hillary will most likely win by any and every metric)
 
R

Retromelon

Member
Right now jindal is advocating more stringrnt selection of conservative justices so they don't do silly things like uphold obamacare again.
In the end, jindal and graham were both great but I'd give the debate to graham.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Lindsey had the quote of the night so far. No matter what, no matter who the nominee is, this is all about SCOTUS in the end. He gets it.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
ivysaur12 said:
Hillary's next ad: https://twitter.com/JesseLehrich/status/644297059655413760
Click to expand...

She really needs to just clip together every pro-Hillary soundbite that comes out of these debates and start running it like mad after the primaries. "Not only is Hillary Clinton endorsed by 100% of the Democratic establishment, even the Republicans lover her!"

HylianHistorian said:
Him and Pataki did well. If Graham weren't such a warhawk, I'd say he was the most solid.
Click to expand...

This. On everything but foreign policy, I tend to find myself nodding along with, or at least accepting, a lot of what he says. I'm hawkish by GAF standards, but holy damn that man's warboner is a mile long.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Poodlestrike said:
She really needs to just clip together every pro-Hillary soundbite that comes out of these debates and start running it like mad after the primaries. "Not only is Hillary Clinton endorsed by 100% of the Democratic establishment, even the Republicans lover her!"
Click to expand...

There is zero doubt in my mind whatsoever that the Clintons have a library of video clips of Republicans and conservatives offering all sorts of praise on all sorts of issues. Hell, the GOP used to openly pine for the Clinton years, especially once Obama took office. It'll all come out at some point, and there's enough of it to where they won't be able to just laugh or quip it off.

This. On everything but foreign policy, I tend to find myself nodding along with, or at least accepting, a lot of what he says. I'm hawkish by GAF standards, but holy damn that man's warboner is a mile long.
Click to expand...

I've been joking for a while that if Lindsey were to watch Cher's "If I Could Turn Back Time" music video (the one on the battleship), he wouldn't get turned-on by Cher or the sailors.. it'd be the 16"/50 Mark 7 guns that makes his pulse race.
 
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