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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print
- Thread starter ivysaur12
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Totally agreed with everything. Maher could have chosen to highlight any instance of radical Islam, and yet decided to pick this one?
Do you mean plant people to work there or plant people to interview people who work there?
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Dentures
To work there.
No way those pearly whites aren't real.
PhoenixDark
Banned
They're either dentures or veneers. I'd bet on them being dentures.
I'm surprised more politicians don't wear veneers.
BertramCooper
Banned
I'm starting to cross over to the dark side and think that Trump really is going to be the candidate.
I just don't see what derails him. Unless Reince can somehow force a shitload of people out of this race in the next couple of months, I can't see anyone else getting enough support in time to stop him.
I just don't see what derails him. Unless Reince can somehow force a shitload of people out of this race in the next couple of months, I can't see anyone else getting enough support in time to stop him.
A shrinking field isn't necessarily bad for Trump either, especially if he's seen as the one forcing candidates out of the race. All it would do is assert his dominance and make him stronger, for example if JEB! or Walker dropped out tomorrow people would assume it's because of the damage they took during the debate and Trump would look that much stronger. Which would make him that much harder to take out, what the GOP need to find a way to do is kill his momentum because if they can't he'll just roll his way to the nomination. He's like Miltank in G/S spamming rollout, if you let it keep going for too long there's no way to win.
Huh. I think he looks less likely now than he did a week or two ago. Carson is the second choice of a lot of Trump voters and he's hard for Trump to attack without alienating evangelicals. Fiorina is much more relevant now and she's got this sort of less-clownish-Trump thing going on, and she's making a strong play for evangelicals with the Planned Parenthood stuff. And he's taken miscellaneous hits over other things, some of which have the potential to blow up at some point (like the fake veterans' group fundraiser).
That said, I'm not sure it matters much if a bunch of the candidates quit the race. Most of them don't have significant support anyway, and Carson, Fiorina, and probably Cruz supporters are more likely to go to Trump than to anybody else. I expect Walker, Rubio, Christie, and Kasich could be relied on to drop out and endorse Bush if necessary to stop Trump; these are people who need to be on the party's good side. But I think we'll see (probably) Bush gaining once we get closer to the primaries if it looks like otherwise Trump is a real threat.
He is going to if Trump survives till January. Although the autopsy did nothing to shorten the process as they hoped.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/20/us/new-party-rules-fail-to-speed-up-republican-race.html?referrer=
nope. There is going to be a mass exodus of candidates after the first two contest are over. The field does not like Trump and Reince will make sure the dropouts endorse a Bush, Rubio, Walker or Kasich.
RustyNails
Member
Interesting thing is that I'm seeing more of a fallout from that townhall guy "obama's a muslin" fiasco than I saw with his comments over McCain or Fiorina's looks...Maybe the media is also getting comfortable to the fact that Trump might be the one and shining a bigger magnifying glass.
He's gonna be on Sunday talk shows tomorrow so he will answer that guy's question.
I don't think Fiorina is going to have any staying power, the sort of ads Trump can run against her will cut deep. He's going to go into the next debate prepared for her, this one was about finishing off JEB! and Walker. I'll be surprised if their numbers don't take another hit.
BertramCooper
Banned
EDIT: NM.
I don't expect Fiorina to win delegates, but as long as she's relevant she's a problem mostly for Trump. She's especially effective in making criticisms of Trump that don't get dismissed because they're from the Republican establishment or from some random doctor. I expect Fox to take a liking to her too if necessary.
While this is true, she's got massive skeletons in her closet which, if used correctly, could end her campaign between now and the next debate. If Trump decides to dip into his bottomless money bag with the dollar sign on it and spend on some TV ads, he could end her in the space of a month. Remember that he's not spending nearly as much as he assumed he would need to, he's willing to spend the money but hasn't had a reason to yet. This could be the reason. Considering the populist mood of the country right now, something like the ad that ran against her when she tried for that Senate seat in California could deal a killing blow. Remember that she wasn't doing too badly until that ad ran.
You seem confident in this. It seems like a Trump bluff to me. Do we know he is aware of the Carly 2010 ad and is thinking that way? Then again no one is spending ads on TV heavily right now and I guess that will change after the 3rd and 4th debate.
The one about her firing a bunch of people and outsourcing jobs? I'm not sure this hurts too much, especially against Trump. Like, he's pretty much come out and said "yeah I took advantage of everything the law would let me do to enrich myself no matter who it hurt". She's got to handle it right, but surely she can copy Trump's "this shows that I'm smart" thing while letting other people keep pointing out that Trump is just as bad and come out all right.
There was a moment during the debate where she basically did this already, wasn't there? I remember thinking she was ripping off Romney's "I like being able to fire people". Maybe it was the Heritage thing. She seemed to do a decent job making it about being willing to make the hard choices, etc., and you fix it by making better decisions in Washington to make business here more competitive.
BertramCooper
Banned
I think the HP/Iran stuff could be what truly sinks Fiorina's campaign.
Granted, we're talking about a party who willfully ignores Iran-Contra, but Fiorina sure as hell isn't Ronald Reagan.
Granted, we're talking about a party who willfully ignores Iran-Contra, but Fiorina sure as hell isn't Ronald Reagan.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Way to be culturally insensitive. It's "he hecho un gran error"Time to repost Jeb!'s wedding photo?
Why yes it is.
Retromelon
Member
Anton!2016
If I were in charge of one of the other GOP candidates campaigns, I'd take it seriously and would not assume it was a bluff. Especially after Romney showed how effective spending on TV ads could be in the last primary, he firebombed entire states with negative ads to take out the competition. As fucking stupid as Trump is, and he is fucking dumb as shit, he understands how the media works and how to use it to his advantage. If anyone could figure out how to turn a TV ad into a political nuke, it's Trump.
There's a difference between hitting her with it in a debate setting and a TV ad. I'm not so sure she'd be able to downplay the exact numbers, I feel like there'd be a difference between people thinking it's just a couple hundred people and realizing it's a number in the ten thousands. The former you could play off as making the hard choices, but I doubt she could get away with doing that to the latter.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
I think the creepiest thing about this movie is his hair cut. He won the oscar solely on that hair cut
If Rubio catches fire at the right time, I could see his biggest problem being Bush's money, resources, and name recognition. They could split the establishment vote and cause them to both lose a critical primary like South Carolina to Trump or someone.
hhehehe
I don't see why people would vote for Rubio. I feel like the "Rubio's really impressive" crowd aren't actually people who are impressed with Rubio but are instead people who have a very low opinion of the people they think Rubio can appeal to. His whole thing was that he was going to solve the Republicans' immigration problem by getting something passed after 2012 and then crack open the Hispanic vote. But nothing happened other than by Obama diktat which we're all still mad about, and so immigration is still a live issue that Republicans can't be seen as too soft on while Rubio's got an inconvenient record of being pro-amnesty. And beyond his negatives, what's his appeal? He's a charming Hispanic guy with what sound like very nice parents and grandparents who he talks about at every opportunity. He's pretty empty, and I think the illusion of his appeal is about thinking that Republicans will go "aha, he'll win over Hispanics!" as an identity politics thing. As a VP choice, sure, maybe, but I don't see him as the nominee.
BertramCooper
Banned
Rubio seems like he should be capable of making a serious dent, but then I look at the numbers and I can't figure out where a surge in support for him would be coming from.
If Trump is still the leader by the time people actually start casting votes, there will be backroom deals that force the establishment candidates to fall in line. A Trump nomination would be an absolute disaster for the republicans.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Look I'm as liberal as most average educated white male Americans can get and I see the appeal of Rubio. He has Kennedy's cadence.
Agreed. I have no idea where his support would even come from. I have no idea why he has support. He seems like a guy that should be impressive, only he's not.
Oh, so now he's Jack Kennedy?
I mean, this is what I'm talking about. The appeal of Rubio is superficial. You "see the appeal", but it's not like you think he'd be a good President because he has Kennedy's cadence. To the extent that he's got a shot at the nomination because of this, it's because Republican primary voters will be taken in and conclude that he's going to be a good President because he has Kennedy's cadence or because lots of them will make basically that same calculation about independent voters.
Basileus777
Member
The appeal of Rubio is that he's an establishment candidate that's not Bush or Walker, yet isn't as "moderate" as a Kasich.
BertramCooper
Banned
Well, that's the thing - I think liberals find Rubio more appealing than conservatives find him.
Or, more likely, liberals are looking at the GOP field, see Rubio as one most electable, and mistake electability in the general for viability in the primaries.
If the Republican Party were going to fall in love with Marco Rubio, it would have happened by now.
Basileus777
Member
I don't disagree, but you can make that argument for most of the candidates, yet I'm certain Trump isn't going to continuously run roughshod over all of them. Someone has to rise even if they don't win.
BertramCooper
Banned
I think Rubio is slightly different than the others because of the party's once-grand ambitions for Rubio - ambitions that have been thwarted at almost every turn because the rank-and-file just doesn't particularly like him.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Rubio's failure to gain traction really exposes GOP candidates' inability to broaden its appeal. How far would Obama have gotten in 2007 if the democrat party was stuck in a 1980 time warp, for instance; probably not far. Rubio is thus forced to compete for the exact same demographic of people that are showing up to every other candidate's events: older white people and some far right activist young people. Yet on paper Rubio was supposed to broaden the base and bring other people - like disillusioned young people who voted for Obama once (or twice) and can't find a job. Or moderate Hispanics who aren't impressed by democrats. Or moderate soccer moms concerned about xyz.
Rand Paul is also failing to broaden appeal, which is surprising to me. The only guy who seems to be doing things 100% right is Cruz, who has the far right fired up. At least in the speeches I've seen...
Rand Paul is also failing to broaden appeal, which is surprising to me. The only guy who seems to be doing things 100% right is Cruz, who has the far right fired up. At least in the speeches I've seen...
Macho Madness
Member
Appealing to the base who was going to vote for you in the first place and only them is not how you win national elections. Somehow the Republican Party hasn't figured that out yet.
I don't think any of the Republican candidates have much of an upside, frankly, but one of them is going to win the nomination and get slightly less than 50% of the votes in the general, because that's just the way American politics works.
It's an extremely weak field this time, I think it's entirely possible that being well spoken, relatively inoffensive, and checking the right demographics boxes might be enough this cycle, especially when you come from the most important battleground state. If people sense the wind changing in his direction, the establishment money will jump over to him.
BertramCooper
Banned
If GOP primary voters want to check demographics boxes, Fiorina seems like the more likely choice than Rubio at this point.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
No he'd be a horrendous president, so long as we presume being bought and paid for by establishment figures and the status quo is a bad thing.
I think he probably is the second or third most likely establishment candidate after Bush, but I don't see how things start to look good for him until at least Bush gets knocked out, and I think it's very hard to actually knock Bush out. Like, I don't think the establishment picks Rubio just because he moves up a little and Bush moves down a little; Bush needs to look like a Christie. And the establishment definitely doesn't want to try to push Rubio through as long as Trump is around either, because he's a lot easier to attack on immigration.
benjipwns
Banned
He also ran for President in 2008.
benjipwns
Banned
Do I have a coming soon movie for you: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truth_(2015_film)
Fake. But accurate!
Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0v5-jVhksGM
Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCWQIBKmHII#t=7m
Yeah, this echoes what I was saying earlier, that it's hard for any establishment candidate to win the nomination except for Bush because Bush will always be there with lots of money and support to split the vote.
I still think Republicans will be forced yet again to lose respectably with a candidate they don't love, which is Bush, because they'll opt not to commit suicide by going with Trump, Carson, Cruz, or Fiorina.
RustyNails
Member
.
brainchild
Banned
It's always amazing to me when a candidate keeps running for president and still manages to have name recognition problems.
Ralph Nader has run for president like a billion times and I'm not even sure if everyone who peruses this thread knows who he is.
benjipwns
Banned
George W. Bush's partner in crime.
Basileus777
Member
How is this even possible unless you're like 12 years old?
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