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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Abinash117 said:
Can't always rely on the media to do things for you. If Hillary really wants her plans to be talked about she and her campaign needs to go a little more national then they are now. They are covering Trump because of ratings, drama, and he is doing is using major outlets to give out his thoughts. Considering the major ad buys and some major people stumping for her in September she might be more public sometime in September. During the time in August it looks like she was primary fundraising, keeping a low profile, and organizing.


It also should looked that her state polls are very good, but her national polls it looks more close depending on the poll. It would appear her strategy might be working somewhat on that end.
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The national polls honestly just don't matter anymore. States are baking in their tallies now, so it doesn't really matter if Trump pads his numbers with record GOP turnout in Mississippi or Oklahoma. His best shot would've been to basically relocate to PA or something to try to chip a state out of Clinton's column, but he's not doing that.

Gruco said:
TBH the micro-analysis in this thread is pretty tedious and honestly offers almost no insight 99% of the time. That's mostly fine honestly, I get that this thread is full of people who naturally obsess over this stuff, which makes it a hyper aware community. There are a lot of good things that come with the territory on that, even if that can lead to a lot of noise to filter through.

By my estimation there are only two moments that I think meaningfully changed the state of the race. The first was the Curiel-Pulse response in June, and the second was the post convention-Khan implosion. The first we never got to see sink in because it was immediately followed by the FBI and convention season. But it's been a month since the second, and we still see the double digit 270, the crippling demographic weakness, and it's already too late for Trump to make up anything meaningful on GOTV.

It's going to be really hard to shake my confidence in this race. I would like to see a greater Trump breakdown and was for a moment hopeful to see this after the Ryan/McCain/Aoyette infighting. I'm nowhere near confident on the house, as no one should be. But even the great alt-right speech or Trump in Mexico is mostly campaign noise in the backdrop of a really strong set of fundamentals which have never really been threatened. I wish people cared more about Hillary's policy memos, but such is the world we live in.
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This is a great post. I think when we're removed from this race, it'll be exactly those 2 moments that people remember most about Trump. Maybe we'll also tack on the campaign issues, but even there I think only the political obsessives (*cough* us *cough*) will remember his horrendous infrastructure and most people will just remember his manager shake-ups.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
adam387 said:
Like, I didn't post here in 2012. Did people freak out about every little thing then too?
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Diablos did, at least, and it was about as obnoxious as it is now even taking into account the whole "national polls are biased about 3% toward Romney" thing October had going for it.

nature boy said:
HOPIUM SHOT
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I see Suffolk/USA Today is continuing the trend of Clinton doing markedly better in live interview polls, per Nate Godcohn

Natl live interview polls (two way): Suffolk C+7, Fox C+6, Quinnipiac C+10, Monmouth C+7

(four way): Suffolk C+7, Fox C+2, Qp. C+7, Mon. C+8
Click to expand...
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
The national polls honestly just don't matter anymore. States are baking in their tallies now, so it doesn't really matter if Trump pads his numbers with record GOP turnout in Mississippi or Oklahoma. His best shot would've been to basically relocate to PA or something to try to chip a state out of Clinton's column, but he's not doing that.
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He can't just run local like Kerry did in Ohio when he was down. He's losing too much in other states for that to be a viable path to victory. That's why his team is doing everything possible to get him on national news and exposure and hope to move the bar nationally (which he needs to do).

A giant problem with his strategy is that they are desperate to try to break through nationally so they do random stuff like go to Mexico that they'll never be able to get around to the campaign they need to run, which is a referendum on "Do you want Hillary Clinton as President?" instead of the current "You really don't want Trump to be President,do you?". Because there's just too many reasons voters can say "hell no" to the latter after the way he has treated people (especially the Khan family and the disabled reporter) this year.

Senate GOP PAC is doing a $8.1 MILLION (!!) ad buy for Burr from mid-September to Election Day. Why isn't the DSCC or ANYONE responding for Ross?!
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The NC GOP has nothing this year-nothing-in terms of ground org/infrastructure, have giant problems at the state level. They are buying the ad time because they are worried if Ross ever gets ahead Burr won't be able to make up the ground.

This really comes down to Trump though. NC needs to be +3 or higher Clinton for Ross to have a chance to win.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Fragamemnon said:
He can't just run local like Kerry did in Ohio when he was down. He's losing too much in other states for that to be a viable path to victory. That's why his team is doing everything possible to get him on national news and exposure and hope to move the bar nationally (which he needs to do).

A giant problem with his strategy is that they are desperate to try to break through nationally so they do random stuff like go to Mexico that they'll never be able to get around to the campaign they need to run, which is a referendum on "Do you want Hillary Clinton as President?" instead of the current "You really don't want Trump to be President,do you?". Because there's just too many reasons voters can say "hell no" to the latter after the way he has treated people (especially the Khan family and the disabled reporter) this year.
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See I think his national obsession is coming from a place of ignorance (Trump ignorant? Who would have thought?). He's chasing votes in places that don't matter. He should have tried to ambush a few lean D states to try to combat the lean R states that Clinton is competing in. If he competed there, I have to think her strategy would shift from resources in AZ back to spending resources in swing states. Then you move back into the swing states, and try to duke it out there.

This is all hindsight though. I wouldn't have had that thought months ago.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
Spoiled Milk said:
... Biden is still plagiarizing? Lol. Thank god he didn't run for president.
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Plagiarizing what? Nothing he said is from anything not in the public culture.

If you think the "silver spoon in his mouth" comes from Ann Richards, it's a common saying, not something she made up. And she said "Poor George, he was born with a silver foot in his mouth".
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
14141652_1079915622063992_8335844402950732450_n.jpg


Joeytj said:
Plagiarizing what? Nothing he said is from anything not in the public culture.

If you think the "silver spoon in his mouth" comes from Ann Richards, it's a common saying, not something she made up. And she said "Poor George, he was born with a silver foot in his mouth".
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Right, I was talking about Ann Richards. The juxtaposition of the silver spoon and foot is what she came up with. You can't call Joe original on this one. :p
 
S

Snowman Prophet of Doom

Member
Wilsongt said:
I don't think this was ever in question as not being true unless you an a facist, white supremacists yourself.
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There are a great many hangers-on that have glommed onto the movement because of its "antiestablishment" reputation, at least during this election. Loosely affiliated Trump supporters might be jarred away from it when they realize how literal the Nazism within that sphere actually is.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Snowman Prophet of Doom said:
There are a great many hangers-on that have glommed onto the movement because of its "antiestablishment" reputation, at least during this election. Loosely affiliated Trump supporters might be jarred away from it when they realize how literal the Nazism within that sphere actually is.
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Or they might not be, because if you are concerned about crazy racism probably you noticed that they were crazy racists right away, because that is all they do ever.

I basically don't believe in these people who are not okay with racism but joined up with the alt-right because they are too dumb to realize they're racist. They had to go on the internet and read about the alt-right to join it in the first place!
 
S

Snowman Prophet of Doom

Member
pigeon said:
Or they might not be, because if you are concerned about crazy racism probably you noticed that they were crazy racists right away, because that is all they do ever.

I basically don't believe in these people who are not okay with racism but joined up with the alt-right because they are too dumb to realize they're racist. They had to go on the internet and read about the alt-right to join it in the first place!
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There is a difference between joining a group because Mexicans kinda annoy you and you wish they weren't here and joining a movement that explicitly thinks the Jews are in charge of everything and engineering multiculturalism in order to destroy white, Western culture. I would bet Trump has at least some supporters who look the other way on the alt-right shit because they only know the pretty watered-down, populist Breitbart version that would kvetch at least a bit if they knew the depths of moral and intellectual depravity the movement entailed. Remember this was a post made on a site that has /r/the_donald, which has a lot of shallow populist nonsense, and the OP notes that he dissuaded at least a few people away from at least identifying as alt-right when presented with this evidence.

At the very least, it puts up a big red flag that might steer away people who would otherwise allow themselves to be drawn into the movement later. Radicalism is typically a "death by a thousand papercuts" type of thing, and some people on a wrong path might have some sense slapped into them if they see where this kinda shit leads if you extend it to its logical conclusion.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
Spoiled Milk said:
14141652_1079915622063992_8335844402950732450_n.jpg



Right, I was talking about Ann Richards. The juxtaposition of the silver spoon and foot is what she came up with. You can't call Joe original on this one. :p
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I guess? But making a joke with the phrase during the rally isn't the same as plagiarizing or using it in a speech.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Snowman Prophet of Doom said:
There is a difference between joining a group because Mexicans kinda annoy you and you wish they weren't here and joining a movement that explicitly thinks the Jews are in charge of everything and engineering multiculturalism in order to destroy white, Western culture.
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The way you structured your sentence reads "there is a difference in joining a group because you are annoyed by Mexicans, and joining a group." I presume you meant "joining a group while fully aware of what they stand for". And there's still no difference. If you hate the Mexican presence, it's because you want to preserve white culture. Period. Trump supporters are all, at this point, at least mildly racist. The ones who are excited enough to show up to his rally are, at minimum, embrazened racists.

You started by saying that there were a lot of anti establishment people hanging on to the Trump campaign. Pigeon pointed out that, no, they're just racist. You responded by saying that many people are simply annoyed by Mexicans (and want them gone... Which I would describe as a little more severe than "annoyed"). That has nothing to do with antiestablishmentarianism. It is just light racism.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Snowman Prophet of Doom said:
There is a difference between joining a group because Mexicans kinda annoy you and you wish they weren't here and joining a movement that explicitly thinks the Jews are in charge of everything and engineering multiculturalism in order to destroy white, Western culture.
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Yeah, a difference in degree. Not kind.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
EskimoJoe said:
I know I'm like six pages late, but I just wanted to point out that you weren't the first person to declare Trump would win. Other people thought he would win last July, and you still had him at 8:1 odds. You thought Bush and Walker were tied for most likely at 5:2 odds, with Rubio at 5:1. So I don't think you can really justify your confidence with "I've been right all along."
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I was talking about our PoliGAF prediction contest.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Snowman Prophet of Doom said:
There is a difference between joining a group because Mexicans kinda annoy you and you wish they weren't here and joining a movement that explicitly thinks the Jews are in charge of everything and engineering multiculturalism in order to destroy white, Western culture. I would bet Trump has at least some supporters who look the other way on the alt-right shit because they only know the pretty watered-down, populist Breitbart version that would kvetch at least a bit if they knew the depths of moral and intellectual depravity the movement entailed. Remember this was a post made on a site that has /r/the_donald, which has a lot of shallow populist nonsense, and the OP notes that he dissuaded at least a few people away from at least identifying as alt-right when presented with this evidence.

At the very least, it puts up a big red flag that might steer away people who would otherwise allow themselves to be drawn into the movement later. Radicalism is typically a "death by a thousand papercuts" type of thing, and some people on a wrong path might have some sense slapped into them if they see where this kinda shit leads if you extend it to its logical conclusion.
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To tack on, this is going to look like older discussions I've had with other posters, but this argument basically comes from a place of "Surely 40% of the country isn't racist, right?" and I just disagree with that starting assumption. Anyone voting for Trump (and we have data!) is most likely the sort of person who laments the lack of a White History Month and other such nonsense, and believes that the real harm of immigrants is the culture that they bring. These people aren't really scared of crime rates (since crime among illegal immigrants is in fact lower than legal citizens); they're scared that they might hear different languages spoken at the grocery store and that their kids' teachers will have names like Mr. Ramirez instead of Mrs. Jones. It's a cultural invasion to these voters, nothing more.

We mention a lot that Trump threw away the GOP dogwhistles, but he's got his own that he uses. The big one is just simple redirection; he talks about how bad the US has gotten, and he expects people to read this as an economic message. But it isn't, and it's clear from the data that "the US has gotten worse" is really a cultural statement.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
AntraxSuicide said:
To tack on, this is going to look like older discussions I've had with other posters, but this argument basically comes from a place of "Surely 40% of the country isn't racist, right?" and I just disagree with that starting assumption. Anyone voting for Trump (and we have data!) is most likely the sort of person who laments the lack of a White History Month and other such nonsense, and believes that the real harm of immigrants is the culture that they bring. These people aren't really scared of crime rates (since crime among illegal immigrants is in fact lower than legal citizens); they're scared that they might hear different languages spoken at the grocery store and that their kids' teachers will have names like Mr. Ramirez instead of Mrs. Jones. It's a cultural invasion to these voters, nothing more.
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I'm one of the biggest offenders here. I think back in January I was lamenting that there was no way 40% of our population was racist, and that everyone who was saying all Trump voters are racist was a really, really offensive generalization. But it's not unfounded at all. The numbers in racial resentment are there. The supporters speak for themselves. 37%-ish of the country really is that racist and maybe the remaining 3% are just holding their noses and hoping to God Almighty that a Republican congress can keep Trump in check. But the most damaging, racially motivated policies Trump has are all within the powers of the executive and there's no way Congress can keep that in check at all.
 
B

Brawndo Addict

Banned
There's about 220 million eligible voters in the US, so let's assume that turnout in the presidential election is 60% and Trump gets 45% of the vote, or 59 million votes. That's only 18% of the total population.

Obviously just because someone doesn't vote doesn't mean they don't have racist predilections, but at least they're lazy.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
http://www.clickhole.com/article/political-crisis-antonin-scalias-vacant-supreme-co-4774

Political Crisis: Antonin Scalia’s Vacant Supreme Court Seat Has Become A Hookup Spot For Local Teens

Get ready to start shaking your head, because this is one of the most infuriating stories you’re going to hear today.

Since Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia passed away in February, his seat on the court has remained unused. With Senate Republicans refusing to consider a nominee until after the election, hopes for filling the vacancy anytime soon have remained low, but what is happening now shows just how bad the situation has gotten: Scalia’s long empty Supreme Court seat has become one of the most popular locations in the D.C. area for local teenagers to have sex with each other.

This is the kind of political crisis where all you can do is shake your head and wonder how things got to this point.

Love or hate his decisions, Justice Scalia used to play a big role in all the high court’s activity. Sadly, his chair is now littered with the used condoms and empty beer cans of the dozens of D.C.-area teenagers who have been using the spot as a secluded place to fuck each other. Just one year ago, it’s where Justice Scalia read his dissenting opinion in Kingsley v. Hendrickson. Now, sadly, you can’t get near his old seat without hearing the sounds of teens going to town on each other and blasting music.

“This is a huge problem for our community,” said D.C. resident Kate Pennington. “Now that it’s been vacant for so long, Scalia’s Supreme Court seat is pretty much just a place where teens come to fuck. We’re even getting kids from Bethesda borrowing their parents’ cars and driving to Scalia’s old seat just to take a turn having sex with each other in it.”

Until Democrats and Republicans get their act together and do something about Scalia’s empty chair, it’s going to continue being a hot spot in D.C. for high schoolers to blow each other. Just take a look at this transcript from a recent Supreme Court session:

640.jpg


640.jpg
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C

Crayons

Banned
Having sex in Scalia's supreme court seat literally sounds like something I'd get my boyfriend to do with me if I had one
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Brawndo Addict said:
There's about 220 million eligible voters in the US, so let's assume that turnout in the presidential election is 60% and Trump gets 45% of the vote, or 59 million votes. That's only 18% of the total population.

Obviously just because someone doesn't vote doesn't mean they don't have racist predilections, but at least they're lazy.
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You realize the polls have a "not voting / undecided" option, right?
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Dubbedinenglish said:
Looks like bench is getting activated.
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Yep and quite frankly this is now the best time. Yes Clinton needs to get out there and start pushing policy position.

But I've said it before the biggest plus is that the dems can look more like a United front while the GOP is fractured.
 
B

blackw0lf

Member
Boke1879 said:
Yep and quite frankly this is now the best time. Yes Clinton needs to get out there and start pushing policy position.

But I've said it before the biggest plus is that the dems can look more like a United front while the GOP is fractured.
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She just pushed a major mental health plan which no one paid attention to. I'm not sure how she can get media attention for her policies.
 
B

bodyofanamerican

Member
Anyone else following the (fake) Trump saga on @onlxn's Twitter feed right now?

Currently: Trump is trying to send Chris Christie (who he's renamed "Hole") to Mar A Lago on a "vacation", when he's really sending Christie to Florida to be hunted by Ann Coulter as an apology for Trump's flip flop on immigration last week.

It's...incredible.
 
D

Dubbedinenglish

Banned
Boke1879 said:
Yep and quite frankly this is now the best time. Yes Clinton needs to get out there and start pushing policy position.

But I've said it before the biggest plus is that the dems can look more like a United front while the GOP is fractured.
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Also, as mentioned a few pages ago, Trump has to be everywhere. His surrogates cannot draw like he can so he has to be at every rally with Sessions, Rudy, Pence as the set.

Hillary can have Biden in OH, Bernie in NH, Herself in FL, Obama in NC, and Warren in PA at the same time for example. Trump cannot compete on that many fronts.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
bodyofanamerican said:
Anyone else following the (fake) Trump saga on @onlxn's Twitter feed right now?

Currently: Trump is trying to send Chris Christie (who he's renamed "Hole") to Mar A Lago on a "vacation", when he's really sending Christie to Florida to be hunted by Ann Coulter as an apology for Trump's flip flop on immigration last week.

It's...incredible.
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His twitter is my favorite thing about this election. The through plot's about Grimm and The RIng crack my shit up.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
bodyofanamerican said:
Anyone else following the (fake) Trump saga on @onlxn's Twitter feed right now?

Currently: Trump is trying to send Chris Christie (who he's renamed "Hole") to Mar A Lago on a "vacation", when he's really sending Christie to Florida to be hunted by Ann Coulter as an apology for Trump's flip flop on immigration last week.

It's...incredible.
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I think what they did to Rudy and Jeff Sessions last night (with the "Make Mexico great again also" hats) is worse than even that scenario. It was like the word 'capitulation' was given visual form.

edit: Bernie should do a campus tour of stage colleges across the midwest and southeast in the last couple of weeks before the election. He'd build his donor base for his own efforts and the workers could get the kids to the early voting spots right after the rally.
 
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