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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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J

Joeytj

Banned
adam387 said:
The thing about NH that it's the final state that Hillary needs to win.

She's ahead by at least 10 in
NH
PA
VA
CO

That';s the ball game.

Who cares about Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia or North Carolina at that point.

Also: my current hot take?

The undecided voters don't matter. They're not going to break for Hillary or Trump. They're going to stay home. Both Trump and Hillary are an option for them. Most of Johnson's voters won't vote either, and the three people who are going to vote for Jill Stein won't remember to do it.

She wins by 8 points with a lower than expected turnout.

not ideal, but it's a win. But, I think this puts marginal states more in play than people think, because the people that do turn out fucking hate Trump.
Click to expand...

Yeah, the lower than expected turnout sounds about right. Unless something truly dramatic happens, by late October, it would be obvious to even most Trump supporters that Hillary is going to win and will be resigned to it, also deciding to stay home.
 
N

newshinycd

Member
So what all has happened today? I've been driving all day to go visit family and I just checked in to my room.

I need a taco truck at my hotel asap. Hungry and my ass hurts.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
whyamihere said:
So wait, I'm confused again. Comey said there was no signs of Clinton's email server breached in his testimony, but Politico reports than Hillary's email was breached by someone using Tor.
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This is why I fucking hate Poltico so goddamn much.

Someone had one of Bill Clinton's old staffer's email address and password. That email was hosted on the server. He or she accessed said account using Tor (which, for those that don't know, is an anonymity service that obscures IP).

The server itself was not "breached". Clinton's emails were never under threat of unauthorized access. It was remote access of a local account using email and password, period. With someone's account id and password, there is no amount of security in the world that will prevent a "breach", and even then, said breach is localized to that individual's account. With someone's id and password I could "breach" the fucking FBI! That does not mean the FBI is insecure! It just means don't give someone your id and password!!

But you know, because of this blatant misreporting you're going to hear Trumpkins everywhere parrot the lies and lose their shit. I'm tired of it. I really am.

I hope the Russians hack Politico.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
nature boy said:
Whoa, PA, VA and CO are not +10.
Click to expand...

Going by Real Clear, ignoring the Emerson poll it's at 9.5 in PA. Looks like it's 8 in VA (including Emerson which we know has issues). It's 11.8 in CO.

But if high single digits is the preferred verbiage, then that's fine too. That's what I meant at the very least. I have a bad brain today.
 
W

Wolfgunblood Garopa

Member
remist said:
After reading through the report two things stand out to me. One; Colin Powell is a scumbag.

And two; the whole story about the sequence of events that led to a PRN tech wiping emails with bleachbit in March 2015 (pg. 18-19). It seems pretty clear to me that Clinton instructing her lawyer and staff that she no longer needed retention of emails older than 60 days is a defacto request for deletion. She knew at the time that those emails were of interest to government agencies and investigators, A change in retention policy at that moment seems careless and irresponsible if not purposefully duplicitous.
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The smoking gun that everybody else missed
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
adam387 said:
Going by Real Clear, ignoring the Emerson poll it's at 9.5 in PA. Looks like it's 8 in VA (including Emerson which we know has issues). It's 11.8 in CO.

But if high single digits is the preferred verbiage, then that's fine too.
Click to expand...
Regardless of margins I agree with you - Clinton is clear over 270. Assuming there's no surprises between now and November she's pretty much set. Undecideds will probably split somewhat evenly or stay home, Stein isn't happening, Johnson might do ok but I doubt he eats into either side's support that much except in a few states like Utah.

That being said, I kind of feel like Clinton's going to break 370. She's going on the air in Arizona and I bet she will in Georgia soon too. And she's already playing for NE-2 (or more likely the parts of Iowa covered by the Omaha market, but same difference). However I don't know if she'll bother in Missouri, South Carolina, Indiana etc. Those states flipping would probably depend more on a national tide than any effort by the campaigns.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Johnson will likely effect New Mexico but not to Trump's benefit. It will likely be something like Hillary 55, Trump 36, Johnson 9, Other 1
 
M

mo60

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Regardless of margins I agree with you - Clinton is clear over 270. Assuming there's no surprises between now and November she's pretty much set. Undecideds will probably split somewhat evenly or stay home, Stein isn't happening, Johnson might do ok but I doubt he eats into either side's support that much except in a few states like Utah.

That being said, I kind of feel like Clinton's going to break 370. She's going on the air in Arizona and I bet she will in Georgia soon too. And she's already playing for NE-2 (or more likely the parts of Iowa covered by the Omaha market, but same difference). However I don't know if she'll bother in Missouri, South Carolina, Indiana etc. Those states flipping would probably depend more on a national tide than any effort by the campaigns.
Click to expand...

She will most likely end up with around 370 EV's and maybe over 400 EV's if she is lucky.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Regardless of margins I agree with you - Clinton is clear over 270. Assuming there's no surprises between now and November she's pretty much set. Undecideds will probably split somewhat evenly or stay home, Stein isn't happening, Johnson might do ok but I doubt he eats into either side's support that much except in a few states like Utah.

That being said, I kind of feel like Clinton's going to break 370. She's going on the air in Arizona and I bet she will in Georgia soon too. And she's already playing for NE-2 (or more likely the parts of Iowa covered by the Omaha market, but same difference). However I don't know if she'll bother in Missouri, South Carolina, Indiana etc. Those states flipping would probably depend more on a national tide than any effort by the campaigns.
Click to expand...

I agree. I think she does better than 270 if she wins. I'd also ignore Missouri, SC and Indiana. Like, if it happens, it happens. It's just not worth the money. Every ad I air in SC is one I can't air in a place that I absolutely must have to win.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
the only way i air ads in SC if i'm the clinton campaign is if those parts of SC happen to be in a media market based out-of-state

maybe columbia for an exceedingly minor buy if the polls are looking very close and i've got a crapton of cash on hand where i don't need 100% of it, but that's about it
 
M

mo60

Member
adam387 said:
The thing about NH that it's the final state that Hillary needs to win.

She's ahead by at least 10 in
NH
PA
VA
CO

That';s the ball game.

Who cares about Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia or North Carolina at that point.

Also: my current hot take?

The undecided voters don't matter. They're not going to break for Hillary or Trump. They're going to stay home. Both Trump and Hillary are an option for them. Most of Johnson's voters won't vote either, and the three people who are going to vote for Jill Stein won't remember to do it.

She wins by 8 points with a lower than expected turnout.

not ideal, but it's a win. But, I think this puts marginal states more in play than people think, because the people that do turn out fucking hate Trump.
Click to expand...

Her win margin is probably going to be kinda similar to the liberal's win margin in last year's federal election in Canada in the end with a 30% chance of a landslide.
 
N

nature boy

Member
adam387 said:
Going by Real Clear, ignoring the Emerson poll it's at 9.5 in PA. Looks like it's 8 in VA (including Emerson which we know has issues). It's 11.8 in CO.

But if high single digits is the preferred verbiage, then that's fine too. That's what I meant at the very least. I have a bad brain today.
Click to expand...

PA poll from yesterday has her +5 lets see what the recent batch of polls tell us.

Either way Trump's path to 270 is next to impossible, but a small Electoral College win is no good.
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
I am so sick of Trump surrogates talking about building a wall along the border as though the border is all land. Do they think that squiggly line between Texas and Mexico is just that way for shits and giggles?
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
nature boy said:
PA poll from yesterday has her +5 lets see what the recent batch of polls tell us.

Either way Trump's path to 270 is next to impossible, but a small Electoral College win is no good.
Click to expand...

It's not like a big electoral college win will help the republicans overcome their fever and act reasonable again. I don't give a crap how we win. Just need to keep Trump the fuck away from the job.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Ipsos continues the fuckery, has a tie in a 4 way and Trump +1 in 2-way:

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1182PT


Y2Kev said:
It's not like a big electoral college win will help the republicans overcome their fever and act reasonable again. I don't give a crap how we win. Just need to keep Trump the fuck away from the job.
Click to expand...

Trump has less money, less resources and is a lazy SOB. Republicans and donors are running away from him, the entire republican foreign policy/national security thinks he's a nutjob.
This is a once-in-a-lifetime chance. Hillary is far the ideal candidate, but it's worth a shot.

If they don't have a majority, doesn't matter if they're reasonable or not.
 
J

JHoNNy1OoO

Member
Oh boy, Pastor Burns seems to have not been vetted at all by the Trump campaign and now he's been caught lying about graduating college. On AC360 right now. Claims his BIO was hacked in the interview and of course the hosting company says they have no evidence of that.

You can't make this shit up.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
JHoNNy1OoO said:
Oh boy, Pastor Burns seems to have not been vetted at all by the Trump campaign and now he's been caught lying about graduating college. On AC360 right now. Claims his BIO was hacked in the interview and of course the hosting company says they have no evidence of that.

You can't make this shit up.
Click to expand...
Okay but the democrats have lied about looking out for black people and have been using them as vote pawns so what do you have to say about that
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
nature boy said:
Ipsos continues the fuckery, has a tie in a 4 way and Trump +1 in 2-way:

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1182PT




Trump has less money, less resources and is a lazy SOB. Republicans and donors are running away from him, the entire republican foreign policy/national security thinks he's a nutjob.
This is a once-in-a-lifetime chance. Hillary is far the ideal candidate, but it's worth a shot.

If they don't have a majority, doesn't matter if they're reasonable or not.
Click to expand...

Huh, their most recent daily poll (conducted 8/28-9/1) shows a +2 Clinton when rounded acccording to 538
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/
 
U

User 463088

Banned
nature boy said:
PA poll from yesterday has her +5 lets see what the recent batch of polls tell us.

Either way Trump's path to 270 is next to impossible, but a small Electoral College win is no good.
Click to expand...

Let me let you know how this is going to play out.

If Hillary wins by 1 Electoral College vote- She lacks a mandate! She had all the advantages and she barely won. This isn't what the people wanted. Etc.

If Hillary wins by a bajillion-She only won because she ran against Trump. He was a weak candidate. Anyone would have beaten him. Candidate Y would have won by more.

There is no situation in which the margin by which Hillary wins is meaningful in anyway whatsoever. She will be shit on for a big win. She will be shit on for a small win. That's how this will go.
 
J

JHoNNy1OoO

Member
Spoiled Milk said:
Okay but the democrats have lied about looking out for black people and have been using them as vote pawns so what do you have to say about that
Click to expand...

Haha. His statement.

CrY2DtIXYAACA_M.jpg:large
Click to expand...
 
B

brianmcdoogle

Member
adam387 said:
Let me let you know how this is going to play out.

If Hillary wins by 1 Electoral College vote- She lacks a mandate! She had all the advantages and she barely won. This isn't what the people wanted. Etc.

If Hillary wins by a bajillion-She only won because she ran against Trump. He was a weak candidate. Anyone would have beaten him. Candidate Y would have won by more.

There is no situation in which the margin by which Hillary wins is meaningful in anyway whatsoever. She will be shit on for a big win. She will be shit on for a small win. That's how this will go.
Click to expand...

I kind of wanted to make a thread about this the other day when I thought back to Bush v Kerry 2004 where Bush had his "mandate" with only 286 electoral votes and 2.5% popular vote margin, and decided that he would use it to try and privatize Social Security. Considering the financial collapse of '08, good thing that never came to pass.

There's a lot of people on this board who are either foreign or that this is their first election, and these history lessons might be informative or something. I dunno.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
brianmcdoogle said:
I kind of wanted to make a thread about this the other day when I thought back to Bush v Kerry 2004 where Bush had his "mandate" with only 286 electoral votes and 2.5% popular vote margin, and decided that he would use it to try and privatize Social Security. Considering the financial collapse of '08, good thing that never came to pass.

There's a lot of people on this board who are either foreign or that this is their first election, and these history lessons might be informative or something. I dunno.
Click to expand...

Like, I'm a jaded bitch, but I do not see a universe in which Hillary actually wins this election. She'll get more votes. She'll win the Electoral College. Sure. But they (meaning the media along with the GOP) will state over and over that she didn't win, Trump lost. That will be the marching orders, and they'll be too happy to go along with it.
 
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