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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
That Gary Johnson Aleppo defense force today completely blew my mind. Adult humans claiming ignorance and stupidity were not only OK, but in some instances, desirable qualities.
 
S

sprsk

force push the doodoo rock
Teggy said:
This is like the Trumpiest quote ever

Cr3tv0OUkAAdxyO.jpg:large
Click to expand...

That's the kind of answer you'd expect from a kid who just got caught with his hand in the cookie jar.
 
D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
It's really painful seeing all the candidates graded on different curves this season. Seeing so many defenses of Gary Johnson today that are like "he still probably knows more than the average voter about Syria!" Wow. Whoop-dee-fucking-doo.

Teggy said:
This is like the Trumpiest quote ever

Cr3tv0OUkAAdxyO.jpg:large
Click to expand...
He has the best words.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Didn't see this posted.
Inside the collapse of Trump’s D.C. policy shop

The Trump campaign built a large policy shop in Washington that has now largely melted away because of neglect, mismanagement and promises of pay that were never honored. Many of the team’s former members say the campaign leadership never took the Washington office seriously and let it wither away after squeezing it dry.
...

Since April, advisers never named in campaign press releases have been working in an Alexandria-based office, writing policy memos, organizing briefings, managing surrogates and placing op-eds. They put in long hours before and during the Republican National Convention to help the campaign look like a professional operation.

But in August, shortly after the convention, most of the policy shop’s most active staffers quit. Although they signed non-disclosure agreements, several of them told me on background that the Trump policy effort has been a mess from start to finish.

“It’s a complete disaster,” one disgruntled former adviser told me. “They use and abuse people. The policy office fell apart in August when the promised checks weren’t delivered.”
Click to expand...
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
NYCmetsfan said:
I keep seeing the left around and its all wrong this around, were are people attacking communists? They're attacking fascists who happen to be former communists. The left isn't attacking people for forming unions and advocating for socialism, hell they almost nominated one! Instead they're pointing out the right has nominated a apologist for everything the left is supposed to hate.

Imperialistic, culturally conservative, racist, anti-democratic, fascistic, war mongering.
Click to expand...

People just think "Russia used to be communist and communism bad, Putin bad and was KGB, so Putin = return to bad guys of communism." It doesn't help that Putin has turned the USSR into a nostalgic nationalist memory, which is a total mockery of what it stood for.

I'm more confused by my father supporting Trump because "globalism is the new form of fascism".
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Yeah feels like the news media is shifting into a Hillary cycle. Hope it lasts through The first debate.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Y2Kev said:
Yeah feels like the news media is shifting into a Hillary cycle. Hope it lasts through The first debate.
Click to expand...

That first debate...

It seriously has the opportunity to really further tank Trump's campaign. A win at this point is incredibly likely, but a total collapse of Trump could put the House into play far more than it is already.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Stinkles said:
That Gary Johnson Aleppo defense force today completely blew my mind. Adult humans claiming ignorance and stupidity were not only OK, but in some instances, desirable qualities.
Click to expand...

People defended Bernie Sanders when he did an interview and didn't know the answer to the question about a foreign country, to which he says he was running for President of the US and wasn't abreast on those situations.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
The media isn't in the tank for one candidate or the other or horserace (but kinda) so much as they are lazy procrastinators like the rest of us humans. They get around to real responsible journalism at the last minute. Right around now is when Sarah Palin wilted under the cruel unblinking eye of Katie Couric.

In the end, the press will make the case that Trump is a dangerous moron and that Clinton is a highly knowledgeable perfectly suitable and historic President. "The end" is sometime between now and early October, though.
 
W

watershed

Banned
Unless Hillary absolutely bombs in the first debate or Trump says something truly unforgivable I think the narrative will be that the debate was a tie and that a tie helps Trump more so really Trump won the debate. That's my 1st debate prediction.
 
M

Maengun1

Member
The vibe I'm getting today is that that farce of a Matt Lauer interview has actually got people talking about the media shitting on Hillary over nothing all the time, so maybe it was a good thing after all.

I'm sure it will cycle a couple more times in the 2 months more of this shit. I'm a political junkie but I seriously hate Pres election years, it's just a torrent of stupid. I'll be much more excited reading about what rando policies Hillary will be going after next year, or even calculating exactly how screwed the Dems are in 2018. That's the stuff I enjoy talking about.


Unless Hillary absolutely bombs in the first debate or Trump says something truly unforgivable I think the narrative will be that the debate was a tie and that a tie helps Trump more so really Trump won the debate. That's my 1st debate prediction.
Click to expand...

Yeah I have zero hope about the debate, I think it will be 2012 first debate redux. Trump will lie out his ass and talk in circles the entire time, but he'll stay dull, and everyone will be 'zomG presidential!1111"
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
watershed said:
Unless Hillary absolutely bombs in the first debate or Trump says something truly unforgivable I think the narrative will be that the debate was a tie and that a tie helps Trump more so really Trump won the debate. That's my 1st debate prediction.
Click to expand...

Trump bombed the debate but not so bad that he really bombed the debate so in reality it's a tie so Hillary bombed the debate

/pby post in 2 weeks
 
M

Manmademan

Member
adam387 said:
It is if it fits the narrative.
Click to expand...

Q's polling confuses me, but I've noticed they and a few other pollsters have been making the same error, repeatedly. I'll use PA because I'm most familiar with it. Here's the demographic data from the most recent poll:

PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 35%
Democrat 36
Independent 24
Other/DK/NA 5

RACE
White 80%
Black 10
Hispanic 3
Other/DK/NA 7
Click to expand...

Two huge things wrong with this. There are 4 million democrats here, 3 million republicans, and 676,000 registered as unaffiliated. There are more registered democrats here than republicans and independents combined.

http://articles.philly.com/2016-03-...lvania-voters-party-registrations-john-kasich

Party ID in this poll being 35R, 36D, 24I is nonsensical. Even if we assume there's a ton of independents just registered as D or R but identifying as independents, democrats have been outperforming republicans in statewide elections for quite some time now- democratic candidates for supreme court swept all republican opponents by 300K votes in an OFF year last year- nearly the same margin Obama had over Romney in 2012.

Second:

White Voters at 80%?
Black voters at 10%?
Hispanics at 3%?

2012 had white voters at 78.8, Black Voters at 13%, and Latinos at 6%.

http://www.politicspa.com/what-will-pas-electorate-look-like-in-2016/67204/ (this link is coming up broken, but google cache has a copy).

Since 2012, the rural areas of the state that have most of the non college educated whites (where Trump does strongly) have been collapsing in population. All of the growth has been in the pittsburgh and Philadelphia metro areas.

To come up with Q's numbers, you'd have to assume White voters turn out in higher numbers, blacks do 3% worse and hispanics do 50% worse at 3%.

This would take ASTRONOMICAL white turnout to hit those numbers, and it would have to be heavily among those without high school degrees. How do you come up with a breakdown this bad?

edit: answering my own question- it's probably by assuming that minority turnout in 2012 was a fluke, and a return to pre-2008 numbers is some kind of new normal. Pollsters made the same mistake re: minority turnout in 2012. I don't think this is plausible.
 
C

Crayons

Banned
While I was on the bus home today I was thinking about how just two months from now I'll be voting for our next President of the United States - Hillary Clinton. I was thinking about all the women who had to come before her to pave the way for this to happen - women like Alice Paul, Susan B. Anthony, Shirley Chisholm etc - and I actually got a bit teary eyed. I am grateful to be alive and able to vote for such a beautiful moment. As one of the gays, especially, I know what it feels like to feel like you can't do something because no one like you has done it before - and when I see Hillary climb herself up to President of the United States, a nation that didn't even allow women the right to vote in the not so distant past...it's a huge inspiration, really. When she is declared the winner, I'm going to be struck with some real patriotism that isn't usually flowing within me. And on inauguration day, I will be so fucking proud of being an American.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Iolo said:
Questioning party ID in a poll is literally unskewing.

Also that was beautiful, Crayons.
Click to expand...

party ID concerns me less than the minority numbers, but there is definitely something odd there.

democratic and republican turnout isn't that close here and hasn't been for years.

edit: maybe this will help get the point across.

Penn2_zpseb7aks1h.png


http://www.newsworks.org/index.php/...ar-as-voter-turnout-2012s-got-nothing-on-2008

look at the gap between republican and democratic votes since 2000:

2000= about 200K
2004= about 144K
2008= about 600K
2012= about 300K

the vote totals between 2004 and 2012 were actually pretty similar, but the gap between democratic and republican turnout doubled compared to 2004, because of demographic changes here.

2016 will be worse, and we know this already.

This doesn't even take into account other demographic headwinds working against Republicans. Since 2012, the five core counties of Philadelphia have added 40,000 people, while the rest of the state has lost 10,000. The white, non-Hispanic population has shrunk by 135,000 while the Hispanic or non-white population has grown by 165,000.
Click to expand...

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/arti...-pennsylvania-blue-and-democrats-keep-gaining

with voting preferences as strongly aligned as they are along racial lines, pointing out that party ID doesn't make sense there isn't "unskewing", its common sense.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Crayons said:
While I was on the bus home today I was thinking about how just two months from now I'll be voting for our next President of the United States - Hillary Clinton. I was thinking about all the women who had to come before her to pave the way for this to happen - women like Alice Paul, Susan B. Anthony, Shirley Chisholm etc - and I actually got a bit teary eyed. I am grateful to be alive and able to vote for such a beautiful moment. As one of the gays, especially, I know what it feels like to feel like you can't do something because no one like you has done it before - and when I see Hillary climb herself up to President of the United States, a nation that didn't even allow women the right to vote in the not so distant past...it's a huge inspiration, really. When she is declared the winner, I'm going to be struck with some real patriotism that isn't usually flowing within me. And on inauguration day, I will be so fucking proud of being an American.
Click to expand...

: hugs :

YASSS QUEENS!
 
T

Tranqueris

Banned
It's so annoying watching Rachel Maddow trying to decipher Trump's comments about body language. It makes me wish I could find a clip of Fareed Zakaria yesterday on CNN after the veterans event where he said that the media needs to stop trying to figure out what Trump's comments really mean because it's more likely that he's just saying shit that pops in his head.
 
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