Yesplease.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
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Yesplease.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Today's headlines on MSNBC.com and CNN.com make it look like Trump is going to have a rough day today. Stuff about the foundation and his conflicts of interest are the top stories.
So long as CO/VA/PA continue to remain stacked for Hillary, I really can't work myself up into any sort of stress. She's going to have perhaps the best surrogate team of all time out there goosing the base throughout early voting and up to Election Day, the differential between her machine and Trump's is amazing.. it's just difficult to get scared.
User 463088
Banned
This is wrong. If a bunch of petulant children got their feelings hurt because they didn't get ice cream when they wanted it, then they can go vote for Harambe, Jill Stein or anyone else. I"m tired of people saying that Hillary's "pitch" is that she's not Trump.
No. Her pitch is that she's competent, qualified, and not a white nationalist. She has detailed policy proposals on everything from making college affordable, to fighting the heroin epidemic, to immigration reform, to paid family leave, to women's issues and LGBT rights. It's there. It's accessible. If a person's response is "Ya, but I don't like her" Then, sorry. I ain't got time to deal with that. But, by all means. If anyone of us doesn't think she's making her pitch successfully, we should get out there, knock on doors, talk to our friends, make some phone calls so that we make sure people do understand her policy. Of course, that actually requires something more than all of us sitting behind a keyboard! Which, kind of sucks, but, you know, we should all "be the change" etc.
As to not being a motivating candidate towards her, well, you know, wrong again. She's gotten more primary votes (twice) than any other candidate. Just because she's not "motivating" (whatever we're going to quantify that as) to a specific person doesn't mean she doesn't motivate and inspire a lot of us. So like, no. I'm not entertaining that notion when we LITERALLY just had an election in which she proved (convincingly) that she does motivate people to go to the polls. That she does motivate people to donate and work their butts off. And the only person who has ever bested her in an election and in that metric was Barack O Freaking Bama.
Fine. She needs neither! But even so, yes, there is a path to win NC and not OH! It's demographics. There is a far larger AA population in NC than in Ohio. There are more college educated voters, I believe. There has been migration from the NE to NC. There's a reason those states (VA and NC) are trending towards us. And it's not because OH and NC move at a one to one correlation. Because they don't.
I'm not sure what this is supposed to mean? So, I have no idea how to respond to it. I got no sleep last night, so talk to me like I'm dumb. Please.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Hillary's campaign needs to make the tax returns and using charity money for himself as the big targets.
So make it count and endorse Hillary.
He also complained about her speaking fees and said Hillary should be cutting him a check or something to that effect. It was kinda funny
Poodlestrike
Banned
What's the term for that thing where when people learn a new word they use it all the time? That's how I feel sometimes when seeing Trump and his supporters play with "deplorable."
The best thing about that movie is that it inspired this
Absolute perfection.
Pence is just such a dud. I know why he was forced on Trump, he's the super safe candidate to contrast with his madness, but the man's got the presence and leadership abilities of a turnip. Dude's not moving anybody's votes.
We know what happens when the base departs from the party, but what happens when the party divorces the base?
I get the desire to mock people who panic unnecessarily, but at some point we're going to have to address the fact that Trump is, in fact, catching up. Horserace narrative appears to have created a horserace.
Not wrong tbh. Midwest is going to be nothing but neo-Nazis by the 2020s if this shit keeps up.
This I think ties back into the stuff from yesterday about the media needing to focus in on a handful of Trump scandals rather than giving each of them 15 seconds in an effort to cover them all. Duration matters; if people see a scandal drop out of the news in a day or two, they assume it's not important. Replacing old bad news with new bad news is how he's stayed ahead of it so far, and failure to do so has hurt Hillary pretty measurably. If people actually latch on to this and keep it in the headlines for a few weeks, I think it'll actually matter.
What this guy said. Pop is for children, and people who call everything cola are just wrong in the head.
LOL wut.
The problem with a lot of these "Dems should have nominated X" names that people like to throw out is that almost none of them have what Hillary does: HISTORY with the demographics that make up Obama's coalition.
I like Tim Kaine, but nobody knew who he was until a few months ago, and his vanilla "Internet's Dad" personality is only interesting in contrast to Clinton.
And Elizabeth Warren is the ultimate "Political geeks on Twitter like her but nobody else cares" candidate.
I can't help but see them having the same turnout/enthusiasm issues, if not worse. This idea that Dems could have put up Anybody-But-Clinton and gotten the same support she has (particularly among minorities) guaranteed is almost insulting. Didn't we just have a primary?
Face it, it didn't get much better than Hillary this cycle. That said, the Clinton campaign has two issues that I can see, and I wish they'd spend more time addressing them.
1) It seems like, at some point early in the campaign, the decision was made that since a lot of Hillary's unfavorables were baked in, don't bother trying to change that. No. Even if it's true, you gotta keep trying. You can't let that negative perception just hang, because then all Trump has to do is pile on what's already there. This campaign has been glacial at addressing the issues that play into Hillary's negative perception, and that's if they address them at all. Convention week was the one time this campaign made a concerted, consisted effort to change perceptions of who Hillary Clinton is, and not just "Who Hillary is...in relation to Trump." It's also the only time Hillary's favorables looked poised to take a positive swing.
2) It's time to stop wooing #NeverTrump and right-leaning moderates. I think it's clear at this point that this group is likely to not voting for either candidate, and Hillary's focus on them is blunting her ability to present herself as a positive alternative to Trump to her base. She's falling into the same trap all of R primary candidates did of wanting to attack Trump...buuut not in a way that could alienate you from his support. Fuck his support. I think it's time to stop attacking Trump anyway, but if you ARE going to do it, attack him in a way that actually speaks to and excites your base. I think she did that this weekend with #BasketofDeplorables. So fucking what she pissed off the right. I hadn't seen the left that riled up since the convention.
The problem with a lot of these "Dems should have nominated X" names that people like to throw out is that almost none of them have what Hillary does: HISTORY with the demographics that make up Obama's coalition.
I like Tim Kaine, but nobody knew who he was until a few months ago, and his vanilla "Internet's Dad" personality is only interesting in contrast to Clinton.
And Elizabeth Warren is the ultimate "Political geeks on Twitter like her but nobody else cares" candidate.
I can't help but see them having the same turnout/enthusiasm issues, if not worse. This idea that Dems could have put up Anybody-But-Clinton and gotten the same support she has (particularly among minorities) guaranteed is almost insulting. Didn't we just have a primary?
Face it, it didn't get much better than Hillary this cycle. That said, the Clinton campaign has two issues that I can see, and I wish they'd spend more time addressing them.
1) It seems like, at some point early in the campaign, the decision was made that since a lot of Hillary's unfavorables were baked in, don't bother trying to change that. No. Even if it's true, you gotta keep trying. You can't let that negative perception just hang, because then all Trump has to do is pile on what's already there. This campaign has been glacial at addressing the issues that play into Hillary's negative perception, and that's if they address them at all. Convention week was the one time this campaign made a concerted, consisted effort to change perceptions of who Hillary Clinton is, and not just "Who Hillary is...in relation to Trump." It's also the only time Hillary's favorables looked poised to take a positive swing.
2) It's time to stop wooing #NeverTrump and right-leaning moderates. I think it's clear at this point that this group is likely to not voting for either candidate, and Hillary's focus on them is blunting her ability to present herself as a positive alternative to Trump to her base. She's falling into the same trap all of R primary candidates did of wanting to attack Trump...buuut not in a way that could alienate you from his support. Fuck his support. I think it's time to stop attacking Trump anyway, but if you ARE going to do it, attack him in a way that actually speaks to and excites your base. I think she did that this weekend with #BasketofDeplorables. So fucking what she pissed off the right. I hadn't seen the left that riled up since the convention.
User 463088
Banned
I agree with you completely on the nominating someone else part. That's insulting on so many levels, I'm not going to touch it again, especially when you said exactly what I'd have said anyway.
1) Like, repeating the movement you get from a convention, or keeping the numbers where they were, is damn near impossible. Because, for the most part, you hear nothing bad during the conventions about the candidate. No one's on attack, because there's no reason to. So, while maybe they should have been a bit more willing to rebut everything, I'm just not sure it would have made that much of a difference. I get what you're saying though.
2) I feel like she's kinda already done this? Or, at least, started to do this. I really never saw all these outreaches to moderates other than "He's fucking crazy, do you really want this?" She never, ever moved on any of the positions she staked out in the primaries, so....I agree that her focus should be on turnout at this point. I think that's why we'll see Obama and Michelle on the trail. Plus, I think he ground game will be a big boost to her turnout in relation to Trump. It's usually worth 2-3 poitns, but with Trump having literally nothing.....
New Clinton TV ad hits Trump in the Bondi donation.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...on-ad-hits-trump-on-illegal-donation-from-his
I'm still waiting for a Putin spot.
Also, lol at that Selzer poll. Clinton may lose OH, but I highly doubt the electorate will be the 2004 electorate.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...on-ad-hits-trump-on-illegal-donation-from-his
I'm still waiting for a Putin spot.
Also, lol at that Selzer poll. Clinton may lose OH, but I highly doubt the electorate will be the 2004 electorate.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I would argue it is much less about the "narrative" and much more about Hillary being a weaker candidate than most on here thought.
nature boy
Member
Come again?
Guess that physical didn't go as planned haha. I mean that show was BILLED as Trump releasing his physical. If this were Hillary the media would be going "BREAKING NEWS: Clinton refuses to release health records. What is she hiding?"
Maybe this will be discussed along with the Newsweek article today.
Maybe this will be discussed along with the Newsweek article today.
Lol.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Well, that isn't suspicious at all
"We will go over Trump's physical tomorrow!!"
"...uhhh no, let's not do that. Instead let's talk about eating right and being happy!"
"We will go over Trump's physical tomorrow!!"
"...uhhh no, let's not do that. Instead let's talk about eating right and being happy!"
The fuck? The media had better hammer this hard and not just handwave it today. Also, it was nice to see Carol Costello had a backbone this morning. She wouldn't let Sarah Huckabee spout any bullshit about Clinton being the founder of the northern movement.
I worry that the LV model from 2004 at this exact moment might be correct.
We will see what happens, but I think Trump is activing a voter that just went away in 2008 and 2012, and I worry that right now young voters especially are just not going for Hillary in a big way.
I think the debates change all that, and what I really fucking hate is manufactured horseshit by the media is creating this close race. They basically just all said "fuck it, lets pile on whatever the fuck Trump says" back when people started to disengage from the race when it was looking like a route.
That says, Hillary still walks into the whitehouse comfortably by the EC, and this is the closest the polls will ever be from this point onward. The debates will destroy Trump.
We will see what happens, but I think Trump is activing a voter that just went away in 2008 and 2012, and I worry that right now young voters especially are just not going for Hillary in a big way.
I think the debates change all that, and what I really fucking hate is manufactured horseshit by the media is creating this close race. They basically just all said "fuck it, lets pile on whatever the fuck Trump says" back when people started to disengage from the race when it was looking like a route.
That says, Hillary still walks into the whitehouse comfortably by the EC, and this is the closest the polls will ever be from this point onward. The debates will destroy Trump.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
2004 was lockstep establishment + evangelical voting. They didn't "go away" in '08 and '12, they were just overwhelmed by the Obama coalition.
Youth turnout is quite reasonably a concern for Clinton. But Trump isn't "activating" anyone from '04. Hell, most of the politicians nominally supporting him probably aren't actually voting for him.
So, I'm going to go on a limb and say he won't be the healthiest president to ever serve.
Hilarious because Hillary has absolutely already released far more medical information than he has.
Lol. Classic Trump bait and switch. Grab attention but reveal nothing. I'll still take this as a moral win because it keeps us from validating his Reality TV presidential campaign just a little bit more.
Also, Carol Costello remains the bottom of the CNN anchor barrel for me. Can't stand her hour.
lol everybody hates trump. Colin just needs to come out and publicly say this.
This. This is why he put a ring on it.
Who? Who is that voter that came strong for Bush in 2004, but then stayed home for McCain vs Obama? They came out against Kerry, but were ok with Obama?
I agree with this sentiment, but as you point out there are still 4 debates to engage people. A portion of Clinton's slide in the polls recently is due to a lack of enthusiasm from the left of the party and some drift of millennials to third parties. If (or rather when) the Clinton campaign targets them in full, I think they'll come home to some degree, making the electorate closer to 2012 instead of 2004.
Seriously. They need to give her the boot and give the two hours to Brianna Keilar.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
at this point I'm just bracing for more terrible polls.
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
And they ain't even got to the health shit yet.
When the President 58% says tuck your shirt in YOU TUCK IN THAT SHIRT.
My thoughts exactly. They may be more outspoken now with a candidate like Trump to support, but I doubt the type of person to back Trump wasn't eager to get out and vote against Obama in both 08 and 12.
plagiarize
Banned
I'm legitimately laughing out loud here in the office at Trump not sharing the results of his physical. What a freaking moron. Probably should have got the results before announcing you would make them public eh Donnie?
Seriously? Wow, it must have been bad. He's totally got brain cancer. We should try and make that trend on twitter just to fuck with him.
shinra-bansho
Member
Unless he had already been preparing them for ages before the Dr Oz announcement there was no way he'd have a complete record of his medical history ready anyway.
Although the results of a standard physical should have been easy.
Although the results of a standard physical should have been easy.
When will the media just come out and accept that they're being played by a scam artist every single time? The odds that his "physical" would have had bad numbers were low to begin with due to his ego. That's doubly true now.
Not to mention that results of a pseudo-physical are a false equivalence to the demands the press have of Clinton and her actual medical records.
This whole thing continues to be a joke.
Not to mention that results of a pseudo-physical are a false equivalence to the demands the press have of Clinton and her actual medical records.
This whole thing continues to be a joke.
Frank the Great
Banned
McConnell said that he won't allow Garland to be confirmed in the lame duck session. I'm starting to suspect that if the Republicans retain the Senate, they will never let Scalia's be filled.
Nah, we should make an embarrassing STD trend. Brain cancer is too sad.
Nah, we should make an embarrassing STD trend. Brain cancer is too sad.
I wish I could take all of this election data, go back to 2009 and write a book about it. I'd probably get Fiction Writer of the Year.
If he wants to play it that way.. very well then.
I think he is getting white evengelical voters somehow. He didn't get them in the primary, but his special sauce of anti-LGBT, anti-muslim, pro-gun sentiment seems to have them good and riles up. I suppose he started to get a lot of them towards the end (Indiana).
As much as they might have hated Obama, a mormon and a moderate Rockefeller Republican did not exactly get the born again juices flowing.
I've long posited that born-again evangelicals are far more about who they hate than loving they neighbor,and I think Trump is proving that.
Bush was more moderate than they were, but was one of them. And he did hate the gays and abortion.
I like to think the LV models are wrong, and they very very well may be. But, where i was inititally cynical, I am not getting worried because several good pollsters are telling us the same thing. Which is Hillary is killing him with RVs, and losing big on LVs and I don't want to start "unskewing" polls.
I thought that was all we were going to see anyway is a routine physical?
bangbang i'm a timpani
Banned
trump should absolutely wait until Clinton announces hers. there is no need for him to give more information than she does.
Skiptastic
Member
Poodlestrike
Banned
Yeah, I have 0 faith that any medical records Trump releases will be both a) comprehensive and b) accurate. It's gonna be one or the other. We'll get that he's getting his RDV or Vitamin D and nothing else, or we'll get the complete package and it's nothing but bullshit all the way down.
I mean... part of the reason why the horserace has caught on is because of her problems as a candidate, yeah, but since one of those problems is "terrible relationship with the media," it's kind of a chicken and egg thing?
I mean... part of the reason why the horserace has caught on is because of her problems as a candidate, yeah, but since one of those problems is "terrible relationship with the media," it's kind of a chicken and egg thing?
shinra-bansho
Member
I thought there was something about giving Oz his full medical history. (As if he'd actually be able to contextualise and interpret it lol.)
She has already given a detailed summary of her complete medical history from a doctor:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clinton-plans-to-rest-amid-health-concerns-1473694474
Meanwhile Trump has releasing a 4 paragraph note from a quack.
And somehow the media is talking about Hillary's fucking health conspiracy theories.
Yup. It was always just a physical. Trump's tweet implied he'd release medical records if she did, but we all know that wouldn't happen either
Well why not. One attention-whore reality TV fraud deserves another, right?
But it was just a physical, which makes me think his fucking blood pressure/blood sugar/cholesterol and heart rate are through the fucking roof.
gutterboy44
Member
As expected the Dr.Oz thing turned out to be a farce even before it happened. Good, now I don't have to eat a handful of his woo woo coffee beans. The double standards of our media continue. Let's say HRC is not transparent while Trump obfuscates anything and everything.
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