Dubbedinenglish
Banned
We need to build a wall, a blue wall.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting
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User 463088
Banned
It's nice of 538 to confirm what everyone has been bitching about all along, though.
Speaking of 538, I noticed today that they're currently weighing this morning's LA Times poll higher than the Marist poll from a couple of days ago.
Sooooo the goofy online poll with a +6 red house-effect gets more weight than a proper live phone survey from an A-rated pollster.
You do you, Nate. You do you.
Sooooo the goofy online poll with a +6 red house-effect gets more weight than a proper live phone survey from an A-rated pollster.
You do you, Nate. You do you.
More or less, yeah. Vote in more elections and realize they all matter.
User 463088
Banned
Yes.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
She shouldn't address it at all.
Trump played right into her hand already. It looks like Hillary invited a valuable member of the business community. In return, it looks like Trump took the tabloid route and ends up looking like a child.
Manmademan
Member
it really isn't.
How can we break the "Punish party in power" cycle that we've had for the last 30 out of 33 midterms?
How did statewide elections all mostly get to be in midterms? was it determined when it became statehood?
*I know FL had all their offices in Presidential elections until this happened: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_gubernatorial_election,_1966
and this:
oh the irony
User 463088
Banned
I'ts not.
Basileus777
Member
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Yup, it's a landmine Trump set for himself.
eBay Huckster
Member
nate cohn wins again
Can you explain why that they shouldn't do that?
Why not? He's not saying she would lose, just that he'd at least temporarily take the lead. You can swing polls like 3% and it should cause her safe states to become unsafe.
eBay Huckster
Member
can anyone explain why a statistical model shouldn't be designed to overreact to relatively small events for clicks when it will literally only matter on november 8th for the purposes of determining its accuracy, really?
Because their model barely budges when three +6 national polls from quality pollsters come out yet one state poll that still has her in the lead comes out and all of the send it's back to HORSE RACE because TRENDZ!!
If you look at the national polls and individual states they typically give greater weight to all of the polls that are worse for Clinton.
Basically what I'm saying is according to 538's model Clinton's chances are roughly equal to what they were a week ago. How can anyone with a straight face think that given the barrage of good polls this week?
Manmademan
Member
couple of reasons.
1.) Clinton and Trump are both unique in that they are so well known and so highly exposed that I honestly don't believe there are THAT many people left that are actually, truly undecided left. Minorities and educated whites are WELL AWARE of what kind of candidate that is, and a debate isn't going to change this. Trump is someone that is clearly, demonstrably unfit to hold office for anyone who has been paying attention. His support consists of racists and republican party diehards, and there simply aren't that many of those that are on the fence or tentatively voting clinton.
2.) We had three fairly solid polls drop this week putting clinton up somewhere in the neighborhood of +6 or +7. The kind of debate that would move Trump 7 or 8 points nationally is absolutely not possible from that guy. We would need to see something ridiculous like an Obama/Romney debate #2 situation where Hillary just rolls into an obvious rhetorical trap and ends up getting steamrolled- if not worse. This isn't a realistic scenario.
i went to breitbart because a person was absolutely totally genuinely just asking questions about why gaf in general sees breitbart as a biased website
and on the front page i find two articles about gamergate, one claiming milo totally had no involvement [he founded it] and one saying it is harassment to post proof of people saying hateful things and participating in gamergate [which they defend but also at the same time milo totally didn't start it because reasons... but them so adamantly claiming milo had no involvement doesn't mean its bad, apparently]
two articles about gamergate at the end of september 2016
on the front page of a politics website
going to place my bets now, the republican party or whatever remains of it will not pull out of the alt-right tailspin before 2020
and on the front page i find two articles about gamergate, one claiming milo totally had no involvement [he founded it] and one saying it is harassment to post proof of people saying hateful things and participating in gamergate [which they defend but also at the same time milo totally didn't start it because reasons... but them so adamantly claiming milo had no involvement doesn't mean its bad, apparently]
two articles about gamergate at the end of september 2016
on the front page of a politics website
going to place my bets now, the republican party or whatever remains of it will not pull out of the alt-right tailspin before 2020
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
i went to breitbart because a person was absolutely totally genuinely just asking questions about why gaf in general sees breitbart as a biased website
and on the front page i find two articles about gamergate, one claiming milo totally had no involvement [he did] and one saying its harassment to post proof of people saying hateful things and participating in gamergate [which they defend but also at the same time milo totally didn't start it because reasons]
two articles about at the end of september 2016
on the front page of a politics website
Now understand the CEO of that site is running Trump's campaign.
i guess that guy knew even less about this ethics in video game journalism website than i did. sad!
balladofwindfishes
Member
They really want their "HILLARY ISN'T REBOUNDING" article to not look ridiculous, since they published it hours before a torrent of +5 or greater polls for Hillary came out and it made them look silly.
There's no reason at all that three days of consistent polling showing Hillary's lead increasing is worth less than one poll, in one state, with a huge MOE.
There's no reason at all that three days of consistent polling showing Hillary's lead increasing is worth less than one poll, in one state, with a huge MOE.
Spiritreaver
Member
I had two dreams about the election last night, lol. Hillary lost in both!
The second dream was pretty detailed. She didn't lose PA, but lost VA, NH, NC and I thought NY (but I was wrong, it was just the old TV's red bleeding into the blue, she didn't lose NY). As I woke up I was concerned about CO.
Dreaming about elections. :\
The second dream was pretty detailed. She didn't lose PA, but lost VA, NH, NC and I thought NY (but I was wrong, it was just the old TV's red bleeding into the blue, she didn't lose NY). As I woke up I was concerned about CO.
Dreaming about elections. :\
Bingo
Just look at their national poll section. They're currently weighing LA Times higher than Marist... You can't do that and get confused/offended when people question your model.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
The fact that debates can have a sizeable effect on voter perception? HylianTom posted graphs that showed that absolutely was true in 2008--even the VP debate.
He's just saying Trump could get a swing in his direction, and that absolutely could happen, and the same goes in the other direction if Hillary "wins" the debate.
Basileus777
Member
This continues to be one of the other issues with 538. When they make a call, instead of constantly reexamining it when new evidence arises, they tend to stubbornly double down.
Prodigal Son
Member
I remember dreaming Sanders assaulted me in the primaries. He sorta backhanded me. Was weird. I think his flailing hands and fingers imprinted themselves on my subconscious mind.
I like how the Morning Call likes to pretend it has statewide visibility, but that paper is a shadow of itself from 15 years ago. It never recovered from the double whammy of The Tribune takeover and the rise of the internet, but its decline into provinciality was steeper than most.
/rant off
BTW, Muhlenberg is a very small liberal arts college that has a fucking amazing radio station
/rant off
BTW, Muhlenberg is a very small liberal arts college that has a fucking amazing radio station
BlastProcessing
Member
The best thing about it is I am pretty sure Trump played himself. He made a stupid impulsive tweet then Flowers called his bluff. Now he's kinda cornered.
CoffeeJanitor
Member
Silver is definitely hunting for clicks with the constant articles and Trump-bullish probabilities.
Bummer.
Bummer.
Yeah, it's true that Trump could pull even or even ahead with a great debate performance. I don't know how much staying power it would have, but it could happen.
RastaMentality
Banned
Yeah I bet this has the highest international viewership of any of the debates ever.
titiklabingapat
Member
Wasn't 538 working with NYT a couple years back? Wasn't there a rumour that Silver refused a buy out? Or was I just imagining things? (I'm still very much hangover still from last night and its already 7 pm PDT)
Spiritreaver
Member
Ack. Can't blame you though, I always find myself staring at his hands.
RustyNails
Member
balladofwindfishes
Member
ironically, I feel Nate and his arch-enemy, the Times, are suffering from the same general problem: overcorrecting because they discounted Trump in the first place (Maggie Haberman talks a lot about how she decided not to write a story about Trump running because she had been burned in 2012)
Both of them have done an astonishingly abysmal job this election.
the Upshot took 538's lunch money. sad!
Both of them have done an astonishingly abysmal job this election.
the Upshot took 538's lunch money. sad!
Basileus777
Member
The things people are criticizing them for right now aren't dependent on the results of the election.
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