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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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Boke1879

Member
A mod should be there to ask questions and guide discussion. They shouldn't be there fact checking everything or else they might as well be part of the debate.

Lauer got shit on becaus he spend way too much time asking questions about emails and then tried to rush her on actual policy questions. He didn't push Trump that hard.

We all know Trump is going to spew bullshit. Question is will the mod ask follow up questions that allow him to continue to spew it. OR will the questions be framed in such a way that Trump has to deliver firm policy and be specific?
 

Bowdz

Member
It's pathetic how much better Fareed Zakaria GPS is than most other news shows. His guests today were: Petro Poroshenko, Aung San Suu Kyi and he had a segment on the structural challenges posed by globalisation and the reasons Anwar al-Awlaki's sermons are still a potent force for radicalization in the US. Meanwhile, on This Week, George interviewed Boris Johnson and talked about John Oliver.
 

zero_suit

Member
It's pathetic how much better Fareed Zakaria GPS is than most other news shows. His guests today were: Petro Poroshenko, Aung San Suu Kyi and he had a segment on the structural challenges posed by globalisation and the reasons Anwar al-Awlaki's sermons are still a potent force for radicalization in the US. Meanwhile, on This Week, George interviewed Boris Johnson and talked about John Oliver.

What a stark contrast.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Nah. Constantly running ads can end up hurting you. There is nothing wrong with taking a break. Overexposure is a real thing.

If Clinton's analytics show that Colorado needs more ad buys, there is more than enough time left for them to be effective.

Maybe, but they blew a huge lead. It clearly wasn't the right decision on some level.
 

royalan

Member
The question is, why did Obama over perform in CO? Was it undecideds breaking, non-random spanish-language sampling, or the better turnout operation?

If it is the first, Clinton will probably under-perform Obama. If the latter two, she may well do better.
it wasn't because undecideds were breaking

Maybe in 2008, but not in 2012. 2012 was just machine politics.

I will agree.

I just think the blanket Obama comparisons are a bit rushed. We're dealing with two different candidates. This election is really going to test how much that behind-the-scenes machinery matters versus having a charismatic, outgoing candidate leading in the front.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Y2Kev, why don't you hang out with us plebs at one of these meetups?

I have never really been up to speed on what's going on with meetups and such. Many people say I am very fun to hang out with. No one is more fun than me. Believe me.
 
Well, what if the moderator fact-checks every statement and that doesn't make a difference to the voters?

People are making the assumption that live fact-checking Trump will somehow convince Trump supporters that he's a big fat liar, a scam, etc. We're beyond that point now.

At lest in that case the voters won't have an excuse of "I didn't know" after election. (like it happened after Brexit vote)
 

Gruco

Banned
I will agree.

I just think the blanket Obama comparisons are a bit rushed. We're dealing with two different candidates. This election is really going to test how much that behind-the-scenes machinery matters versus having a charismatic, outgoing candidate leading in the front.

This is probably counter-intuitive, given the main narrative surrounding the primary ("omg how could Hillary have let Bernie get so close!?"), but I take a lot of comfort in seeing how the primary played out.

First, you see a lot of Hillary's biggest margins in primary states which were predictable purple states. She did incredibly great in Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina, but that could simply be explained by demographics. The margins in Ohio and Pennsylvania are a bit harder to explain away as just demographics. So I take that as an early sign that the long term investments in GOTV are going to be effective.

But it's not just the margins in the general election swing states. The primary campaign also deployed resources remarkably effectively. A huge chunk of her margin came from Texas, Georgia, and New Jersey, which weren't even considered the high profile battlegrounds. Meaning: The campaign very effectively kept a laser focus on the precise conditions for victory, and successfully implemented their strategy to get there.

In 2012 Obama spent the entire cycle investing in data collection while Romney was fighting off Herman Cain. Hillary has been building on this infrastructure for almost two years, and Trump literally learned what GOTV meant in January (and also decided it was stupid). Memories of 2004 being what they are, I wouldn't want to count on this to flip a Trump lead in polling if that's what we ever see. But....I do think that Hillary will finish 3 points or more ahead of the final polling margin.
 

royalan

Member
C5R7Fu4.jpg


This is a portion of George Bush's speech from the African American History and Culture Museum opening yesterday. These words are beautiful on their own, then add in that it was George fucking Bush saying them.

Man, how far the Republican party has fallen.
 
I honestly can't stand Jill Stein- at least Gary has some principles. Jill Stein is just a caricature at this point. She's done nothing- the Greens will get <1% of the national vote which is fantastic. The Green Party won't be taken seriously until they stop nominating nutjobs like her.

Great speech from GWB- I can't even recognize the GOP of Bush's years to what it is now.
 
I had fun yesterday

im glad a GAffer helped me sneak into the bar that was carding
I'm going to need names of the people that helped corrupt you. I consider myself the guardian of your purity. And that someone would allow a baby, a 20 year old, to drink is deplorable.
 

Crayons

Banned
I'm going to need names of the people that helped corrupt you. I consider myself the guardian of your purity. And that someone would allow a baby, a 20 year old, to drink is deplorable.

my purity?

I think you're a little too late to be looking for that
 

User1608

Banned
C5R7Fu4.jpg


This is a portion of George Bush's speech from the African American History and Culture Museum opening yesterday. These words are beautiful on their own, then add in that it was George fucking Bush saying them.

Man, how far the Republican party has fallen.
Wow, those are really beautiful words. I wish I could go there!

*And you know, Bush has committed many great terrible things. That is why we cannot allow Trump to become president. He gives off the aura of being so much worse already.
 
Maybe, but they blew a huge lead. It clearly wasn't the right decision on some level.

We don't know what their internal numbers were telling them then or are telling them now. So we don't even know if they feel they blew a lead at all from their perspective.

Are you still bearish on Ohio? I'll avatar bet you that Clinton takes it. Loser has to use an avatar that says "I LOVE OHIO" from election day to inauguration day.
 
We don't know what their internal numbers were telling them then or are telling them now. So we don't even know if they feel they blew a lead at all from their perspective.

Are you still bearish on Ohio? I'll avatar bet you that Clinton takes it. Loser has to use an avatar that says "I LOVE OHIO" from election day to inauguration day.
Why would you make someone say they love Ohio? Like, that's mean. No one loves Ohio.
 
Team Trump: We didn't invite Gennifer Flowers
http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/25/politics/presidential-debate-preview-2016/index.html
Donald Trump's campaign manager and running mate said Sunday the GOP candidate doesn't want Gennifer Flowers -- who had an affair with Bill Clinton in the 1970s -- at Monday night's presidential debate.

"We have not invited her formally, and we do not expect her to be there as a guest of the Trump campaign," Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union."

Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, Trump's vice presidential nominee, told "Fox News Sunday" host Chris Wallace that Trump's suggestion he'd invite Flowers was just "mocking" Clinton's campaign for distracting from the real issues at stake on Monday night.

Guys, guys. He was just joshing around! Interesting wording here, too. Flowers stated she will be in attendance, and Trump & Co. have only declared she won't be there as a formal guest of the campaign. Donald is basically going, "I mean sure she might be there but it's not like we asked her to come or anything, b-baka~!"

This guy.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Wow, those are really beautiful words. I wish I could go there!

*And you know, Bush has committed many great terrible things. That is why we cannot allow Trump to become president. He gives off the aura of being so much worse already.

Bush himself was a decent guy surrounded by horrible people making decisions. Doesn't make him blameless, but he gets far too much hatred here.
 
I've only been stopped by a cop while driving once.

I've only been to Ohio once.

Cedar Point wasn't worth it.

One of the worst days of my life was at Cedar Point. I accidentally rode the Dragster thing. (I thought I was in a different line). And then I got stuck on the swings. And then I got food poisoning.
 
One of the worst days of my life was at Cedar Point. I accidentally rode the Dragster thing. (I thought I was in a different line). And then I got stuck on the swings. And then I got food poisoning.

You didnt like it?

I road the same thing at Great Adventure. Shit is amazing. Rode it 4-5 times since noone was there.

The great adventure on is the tallest in the world. Loved it
 
Early voting dump:

New voter registrations in NC:

CtKZJs4WAAAe537.jpg:large


(2012 results):

415px-North_carolina_presidential_election_results_2012.svg.png


New voter registration by party and age:

CtKZe6iWAAAN9KU.jpg:large


VA:

@ArlingtonVotes
Final #FirstDayofVoting absentee total in Arlington: 279. #Election2016

&#8207;@mattmfm
2012 had 146 absentee ballots on the first day, so pretty dramatic increase in absentee voting in northern Virginia.

NC Absentee:

CtM4vSbUsAQBkRs.jpg:large


GA Absentee: (note the work that campaigns must be doing on college campuses, and then the drop off with people who are juuuuust older than college aged kids)

CtM6QUpUsAAM6HD.jpg:large


Maine:

On early voting patterns:

@ElectProject
Also interesting is Trump fares better with lower voting interest (CD2) Clinton with higher (CD1) & overall state looks similar to 2012

@ElectProject
Extend to other states: Trump fares better with lower voting interest (IA) & Clinton with higher (NC). A defining characteristic of 2016?

@ElectProject
And this all matters much to pollsters' likely voter models. Big gap between reg voters and likely voters. Higher turnout favors Clinton

&#8207;@ElectProject
Usually we're on the same boat w/ turnout rising & falling together w/ tide. Boat seems more rocky w/ waves rising some and lowering others

@ElectProject
This matters to poll aggregators who assume strong correlation between national and state polls

@ElectProject
So, when @NateSilver538 says 2016 more volatile than past, could be artifact of model inefficiently modeling national & state correlations
 
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