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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting
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nature boy
Member
Hate to say this, but Portman and his campaign are pretty good:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouen2d7HRTo
In a state with such a low latino %s.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouen2d7HRTo
In a state with such a low latino %s.
RustyNails
Member
That's it, time to deport Hindus and Atheists.
EatinOlives
Member
Why the fuck did Trump gain ground at Fivethirtyeight between yesterday and today??
This one:
He'll just put it upright and add a smiley face on top and he's good to go.
I doubt they will learn after their post mortem several years back. Look where they are now. The damage will be done if Trump loses.
Indeed. I sometimes wonder who is playing Hillary on their side. Is it based on the real deal or some caricature that they have fabricated the last 25+ years?
lol. He's an asshole and he probably doesn't even believe in God.
Guilty as charged.
Because they have the most awkward model of any major forecaster and will literally include any poll from anywhere in their sample. Honestly nothing has changed since yesterday. Looking at their updates it seems to be the result of adding some polls from freaking February and still including the LA Times poll on a daily basis.
They're still terrifying. Every time I hear them I'm reminded of how important it is we keep him out of the White House.
whyamihere
Banned
A pattern!
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Which one?!?!
Seen in Oxford after the state universities all stopped flying the state flag:
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Nat found some old polls down the back of the sofa. Nothing to worry about.
Can we get a margin of error for that "one god" statement by Trump? ±5, maybe?
Yeah, this is the only worst case scenario that I think has any reasonable chance of happening. I personally think that the moderators will be a little more... responsive after Lauer's shitshow backfired so heavily, though.
Yeah, this is the only worst case scenario that I think has any reasonable chance of happening. I personally think that the moderators will be a little more... responsive after Lauer's shitshow backfired so heavily, though.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Sabato's crew jumped the gun by making this Lean D, but they compromised themselves by moving it back to Tossup out of panic. McGinty's clearly got the edge.A pattern!
balladofwindfishes
Member
If the worst case scenario is the polls don't change after the debates, that still means Hillary wins, so how is that worth losing sleep over
whyamihere
Banned
When you've led only one non-landline only poll since August...
I'm greedy. I want polls showing that we'll know really early on Election Night.
Waiting for Colorado and Nevada to roll in sounds a bit nerve-wracking..
whyamihere
Banned
Wow. Updated for today. This is pretty incredible for Democrats.
@ElectProject
NC absentee ballot statistics through 9/18
Finale Fireworker
Member
I can actually remember the exact moment I became a Clinton supporter.
It was still during the primary and I was a Bernie guy. I said I would always vote for Clinton in the GE, but I would rather vote for Bernie. So I was no buster.
I had watched a lot Bernie interviews and I was tiring of how his answer to every question was the same. Billionaires. Wall Street. Over and over. And then I happened to stumble upon an interview Maddow was doing with Hillary and decided to watch it and see how the interviews differed. I was just amazed at how much HRC seemed to know her stuff. And it occurred to me that this was a woman who had a real answer to every question, not just an ideology to repeat.
But the thing that actually won me was Maddow asked her if HRC had any plans to court Sanders supporters and her eyes went wide, she leaned forward, and she said that she had 3.6 million more votes than him (might have been a different number, don't remember exactly). Her message and her plans were already favored by 3.6 million more people. And the energy that she just shot that out, almost with irritation, really hit me. Like, damn, she's right. Why are we pretending she isn't winning? And I was really impressed that she just cut through the bull shit. Because everybody at the time was talking about how HRC was going to court Sanders voters, even when she was winning. But nobody ever asked Bernie Sanders how he would court HRC voters, even when he was losing.
And I thought that this was the person I would want to debate Donald Trump.
So I want that HRC on stage. The HRC that basically says "can we fucking not?" and doesn't entertain the bull shit. That's my president.
Is this not Bedwetters Anonymous?? This is supposed to be a safe space!
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
LAT staying the way it is and that national poll where both of them are getting 35 or below. The model is only as good as what gets put in it and right now there's a lot of poor quality stuff going in.
Fragamemnon
Member
I really don't want the last weeks of this campaign to be nothing but coffeeandcigscat.gif
Even if she wins, which I would personally still be very happy with, given her current momentum, my guess it's because of how hateful Trump and his campaign has been, some of the members here will have wished Hillary could have won by a far bigger margin to delegitimize him and his supporters as much as possible.
Still, does make me miss Romney and McCain of all people...
cartoon_soldier
Member
Dem ground game in NC is supposed to be good.
whyamihere
Banned
Clearly doing some great work. Going to be really big for Cooper and Ross.
Woah, did anyone expect this?
Even if she wins, which I would personally still be very happy with, given her current momentum, my guess it's because of how hateful Trump and his campaign has been, some of the members here will have wished Hillary could have won by a far bigger margin to delegitimize him and his supporters as much as possible.
Still, does make me miss Romney and McCain of all people...
I still think a justin trudeau or Obama 08 like win margin is possible for her.A win margin like that will be above 7 points definitely. Voters will probably break for her late.She just needs to make sure to run as positive of a campaign as possible in the next two months or so.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Why is unaffiliated up so much as well? Hillary's ground game grabbing random people who aren't normally into politics, or angry white people who never vote who are voting this year?
Fragamemnon
Member
It's solid. Feels behind the 2008 effort in terms of manpower but it's also eight years smarter than that effort too.
Also the NCAA and the ACC taking a giant dump on the state GOP is causing massive problems. Not even in most obvious ways-it's not just men suburban men upset that the GOP defend HB2 for no real reason, but it's also that entire communities (like Cary, a cruical Raleigh suburb) got wrecked when years of planning to host some championships went up in flames.
whyamihere
Banned
Generally, Republicans do better with absentee ballots (older voters), so this is unreal.
Could be young voters.
Shhhh
I worry about someone blowing stuff up or shooting people on Election Day. 2016 has been such a clusterfuck, I wouldn't be surprised if it happens somewhere.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Good stuff.
Obama 2012 + NC + AZ + GA + NE-2 is the best possible outcome that's still within the realm of possibility. Anything more than that is liberal pipe dream "omg Clinton wins Texas" territory (which could still happen if Trump severely implodes but I'd put that at the 1% end of the spectrum of possibility).
Finale Fireworker
Member
Maybe they're younger voters. I think younger voters tend to register as independents, even if they always vote one way or another. It gives them a shield and makes them feel above the politics.
Awesome anecdote. Hillary's at her best when she is clear and concise with the top line and then can get into the weeds when people want more information.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
No one is. He's thinking up zingers with Giuliani and Ailes over cheeseburgers at his club house. That's not a joke, by the way.
Keep worrying about Clinton though guys
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Unless they get their hands on a gun.
She will probably have 38 secrataries working for her in the white house. I doubt she will be reading emails.
Frankly she shouldn't have had an email address in the first place. Going from the whitehouse to the senate to the cabinet she should have had an assiastant deal with all contacts such as email.
I just pray that if she gets elected that she tighens up her ship but I really don't see that happening.
I expect whatever seats the democrats manage to win they will lose big time in the next set of midterms.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Yes, but scared people won't think that.
It's possible she wins a surprise state like SC or MO especially if trump collapses hard enough after the debates in polls.I think trump will win a lot typically strong republican states by single digit margins anyway in this election.
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles...ils-may-have-asked-reddit-for-tips?src=usn_rd
Good god what an idiot
Good god what an idiot
eBay Huckster
Member
wrap it up, guys, /r/conspiracy is on the case
Indeed.
Michael Hayden touched on this years ago on Fareed Zakaria GPS. He said, that at the current level of intrusion into people's private information, we can prevent all 9/11 style attacks and most mid sized attacks, but won't be able to do much about lone wolf attacks. If we want to stop those, we could, but it would require an extreme increase in terms of domestic surveillance. It's constantly a question about security vs. privacy and Hayden thought that the balance was more or less right as is, but it's a discussion we should have at some point.
We'll see how it goes! I would be happy with a 2012+ performance at least though.
Ah, so he's lazy as always. And I'm not worried at all. I'm pretty confident in her, but I'm certainly a bit more of a realist the last week and a half.
Hoes does this shit even make it through editorial? Everyone involved in writing and publishing this is a fool.
Cesare and Cybit can probably answer that.
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