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[Diablos]

It's not like the Clinton campaign hasn't started a very obvious effort to court younger voters. Bernie, Warren and Obama out campaigning for her, new ads detailing her long history of fighting for people like them, a speech in Philly aimed at them, another one tonight in Iowa...

But there's BREAKING NEWS about the NY bomber where they repeat the same thing over and over

Thanks, Bernie.

He did irreversible damage no doubt

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

That is freighting perfect.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Kaine in Iowa?

Total snafu.

Why? Iowa is still winnable.

 

[Maxim726X]

The fact that Bad Nate uses those stupid Ipsos state polls just drives me absolutely insane. It's even worse in that he "unskews" them based on their national poll bias. Whatever. Nate was a mistake. Good Nate forever.

He has said previously that his algorithm remains unchanged from 2012/2008.

Is this not the case?

 

[Zukkoyaki]

But there's BREAKING NEWS about the NY bomber where they repeat the same thing over and over

So they shouldn't even try, got it.

Edit: This sounds more condescending than it should. My apologies.

 

[Sibylus]

But there's BREAKING NEWS about the NY bomber where they repeat the same thing over and over


He did irreversible damage no doubt

Not irreversible, but can it be overcome in 8~ weeks?

Still. Don't make your opponent out to be the antichrist if you care at all about victory for your causes outside of yourself.

 

[Brawndo Addict]

I'm kind of surprised that the Russian backed hackers have not gotten more mainstream attention or generated more alarm. I guess it's the fact that the US government will never officially confirm that's what happening because they prefer to deal with it behind the scenes? It seems insane in terms of escalation from the historical mode of operation where everyone is hacking each other but for information gathering only. You'd think there would be more consequences for Russia throwing that wink-wink nudge-nudge agreement to the curb and straight up releasing information publicly. The noise:importance ratio just seems way off.

 

[nature boy]

Why? Iowa is still winnable.

29>>>>>>6

 

[royalan]

Guys, let's stop being petty.

Accusing your primary opponent of felonies with zero evidence is just how you run a competitive campaign.

 

[Boke1879]

29>>>>>>6

No doubt, but it's still nice to contest. Because if she wins that Trump has no way of winning correct?

 

[User 463088]

He has said previously that his algorithm remains unchanged from 2012/2008.

Is this not the case?

He's throwing some things in there that didn't exist in 2008/12. I get that his idea is throw everything in there and see what happens. But, there are some things that are just so categorically wrong they shouldn't be included in anything. That stupid USC thing is one example. When your base assumption is that it has a 5 point bias towards one candidate, what predictive value does that have?

When you treat another website's model as equal to regular polls, like Nate does with those IPSOS state polls...I just think that's stupid. Because, Ipsos actually "unskews" their own result based on an incredibly illogical and improbable turnout model that I've bitched about before.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

But there's BREAKING NEWS about the NY bomber where they repeat the same thing over and over

This is one thing I don't get when it comes to these stories. They tell us so much worthless information about the guy I will never understand why. His family's restaurant was too loud and people complained? Okay, what the fuck does that mean?

 

[nature boy]

No doubt, but it's still nice to contest. Because if she wins that Trump has no way of winning correct?

Iowa? Still has a path.

Florida? Needs to win Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa to go over 29.

 

[Bowdz]

I'm kind of surprised that the Russian backed hackers have not gotten more mainstream attention or generated more alarm. I guess it's the fact that the US government will never officially confirm that's what happening because they prefer to deal with it behind the scenes? It seems insane in terms of escalation from the historical mode of operation where everyone is hacking each other but for information gathering only. You'd think there would be more consequences for Russia throwing that wink-wink nudge-nudge agreement to the curb and straight up releasing information publicly. The noise:importance ratio just seems way off.

Agreed. I sincerely hope the Obama administration will go hard at Russia with new sanctions once they have the receipts of the hack.

 

[Boke1879]

Iowa? Still has a path.

Florida? Needs to win Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa to go over 29.

Ahh i see. Personally I'm assuming she still wins Florida.

 

[NeoXChaos]

29>6 but Florida is not going to be called until well into the night or the next couple of days. By that point FL will be the deciding state or won't matter.

 

[nature boy]

29>6 but Florida is not going to be called until well into the night or the next couple of days. By that point FL will be the deciding state or won't matter.

Those 6 EVs are irrelevant in her path to 270.

Putting Kaine there instead of Florida or Arizona is a big mistake IMO.

 

[Maxim726X]

He's throwing some things in there that didn't exist in 2008/12. I get that his idea is throw everything in there and see what happens. But, there are some things that are just so categorically wrong they shouldn't be included in anything. That stupid USC thing is one example. When your base assumption is that it has a 5 point bias towards one candidate, what predictive value does that have?

When you treat another website's model as equal to regular polls, like Nate does with those IPSOS state polls...I just think that's stupid. Because, Ipsos actually "unskews" their own result based on an incredibly illogical and improbable turnout model that I've bitched about before.

I wasn't aware of that. In fact, I could recall him saying that he's using the same exact methodology that he has used previously. Interesting to say the least.

Has anyone called him out on this yet?

 

[Aaronology]

Guys, let's stop being petty.

Accusing your primary opponent of felonies with zero evidence is just how you run a competitive campaign.

Indeed. Perfectly within the bounds of normal campaign politics.

 

[whyamihere]

Not from America, but this is awful.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...nce-secularism-children-religious-intolerance

hen Aïcha Tabbakhe, a French nurse, went to fill out the forms for her children’s school dinners in her small town outside Paris, she was puzzled. The box she would usually tick to say that her Muslim children didn’t eat pork wasn’t there. “Confused, I called the town hall and I was bluntly told: ‘From now on, that’s the way it is,’” she said. “Pork or nothing.”

After years of French controversies over headscarves, pork has become the new battleground in the nation’s uneasy debate over national identity and the place of Islam. Bacon and sausage school dinners are being used by rightwing politicians to hammer home what it means to be French. Court battles and vicious political spats have erupted as protesters warn that controversial menu changes are sending a message to Muslim or Jewish children that to be truly French, they must eat roast pork. Politicians, as they go to war over the ham on school dinner plates, are fighting about the true meaning of French secularism and whether it has been hijacked and twisted by the right in the wake of the Charlie Hebdo terrorist attacks.

Tabbakhe’s home town of Chilly-Mazarin – a town of about 20,000 people in L’Essonne, which nudges up against Orly airport to the south of Paris – is the latest of several run by rightwing mayors to announce they will scrap pork-free options in school canteens in the name of secularism. For 30 years, Chilly-Mazarin has provided non-pork alternatives to Muslim and Jewish children. But from November, that will stop. On days when the menu features dishes such as roast pork with mustard and courgette gratin, or Strasbourg sausage and organic lentils, or ham pasta bake, children whose families don’t eat pork for religious reasons will be offered nothing but the side dishes. The new mayor, Jean-Paul Beneytou, from Nicolas Sarkozy’s rightwing Les Républicains party, says this is a commonsense way to preserve public sector “neutrality”. But many parents, teachers and leftwing opposition politicians call it a deliberate stigmatisation of Islam that is cruel to children by playing politics with school lunches.


“It’s the impact on the children that has been the hardest,” says Tabbakhe. “My four-year-old daughter is too young to understand that she doesn’t eat pork. It’s not something she’s aware of and it’s not something we talk about. What am I supposed to tell her now? We tried to subtly tell her we didn’t eat pork at home. But she thought ‘pork’ was a type of dessert. She said, ‘Yes, I do eat it, it’s delicious.’ That would be funny if it wasn’t such an awful situation. She is totally confused and has picked up on the atmosphere. She’s crying at school and says she doesn’t want to eat at the canteen. My nine-year-old son went door to door with a parents’ association petition against this and got lots of signatures from non-Muslim parents who were upset. He said to me, ‘Don’t worry, Mum, I won’t eat it.’ He shouldn’t have to be worrying about this. School is supposed to be about learning and living together, not about this. Now my nine-year-old is starting to ask, ‘Why am I different?’”

At the heart of the row over pork is the French principle of secularism, or laïcité, and whether it has been twisted for political gain. The French republic is built on a strict separation of church and state, intended to foster equality for all private beliefs. In theory, the state is neutral in terms of religion and allows everyone the freedom to practise their faith as long as there is no threat to public order. Since January’s terrorist attacks – in which French Islamic extremists left 17 dead after the shootings at the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo and a kosher supermarket in Paris – laïcité has been repeatedly used by political parties as a catch-all answer to society’s ills. After the attacks, the socialist prime minister, Manuel Valls, said secularism was now “the only issue that matters”. Since then, the word has been used so often as a mantra by the government and politicians that a panel of linguists recently voted it “word of the year”.

Once a rallying cry of the left, secularism has now been appropriated by the right, and even the far-right Front National, as part of a debate on national identity – used to rail against anything seen as not French, and particularly to target and exclude Islam from the public sphere. It is a principle meant to protect pluralism, but the sociologist François Dubet recently warned that “talking about secularism has [now] become a way to claim a white Christian France, where everyone shares the same values and traditions, a way to say we don’t want Muslims”.

Jean-Louis Bianco, who heads national consulting body the Observatory of Secularism, has warned that the scrapping of pork-free school dinners is a “typical” example of secularism being used for political ends. “Why create a problem where there isn’t a problem?” he asked.

 

[DrForester]

Looking like this --

No need to panic, but some cause for heavy breathing

What the heck happened to my state (CO)? The Senate race favors the Democrat and it isn't even close. How did Trump flip it in the polls?

 

[victreeb3l]

Not from America, but this is awful.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...nce-secularism-children-religious-intolerance

Thats disheartening. Not cool at all.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

I wasn't aware of that. In fact, I could recall him saying that he's using the same exact methodology that he has used previously. Interesting to say the least.

Has anyone called him out on this yet?

Actually yes including very prominent data analysts like Sam Wang who is also known for election forecasting. A lot of people also bring up how 538 is now owned by ESPN, who are hemorrhaging money, and likely has an obligation to draw as many hits as possible. A model that shifts as quickly and significantly as theirs is just the ticket.

What the heck happened to my state (CO)? The Senate race favors the Democrat and it isn't even close. How did Trump flip it in the polls?

He didn't

 

[whyamihere]

What the heck happened to my state (CO)? The Senate race favors the Democrat and it isn't even close. How did Trump flip it in the polls?

You already posted about this one poll beforehand: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=217012737&postcount=16978

The answer was here:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=217012813&postcount=16979

It was one poll that was landline only. It along with the others in that batch have already been smacked down by significant analysts.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Bernie didn't make millennials stupid.

 

[Aaron Strife]

29>>>>>>6

I mean you're right, but the campaign is already doing plenty in Florida, and Ohio, and North Carolina etc.

Camping out in one big swing state versus spreading yourself around leads to Gore/Kerry elections. Gore would have won with New Hampshire. Kerry would have won with some combination of New Mexico/Nevada, Iowa and Colorado, two Gore states and two states that were already trending Democratic and where Democrats won downballot contests that year (Sen. Reid and Sen. Salazar). Instead Gore focused on Florida, Florida, Florida and Kerry on Ohio, Ohio, Ohio.

Giving up in winnable states = dumb. Especially if you want to win by a large EV spread rather than just by the skin of your teeth.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Assad and Russia bombed a UN aid convoy.

Gonna be fascinating to hear those guys talking about how "mistakes were made" after Russia had been screaming about slopping U.S. bombing when we bombed Hezbollah by accident two days ago.

 

[royalan]

Bernie didn't make millennials stupid.

If we can admit everyday in this thread that Trump's words have an effect on people in this country inclined to listen to him, it's only fair we do the same for That Senator from Vermont.

 

[Maxim726X]

Actually yes including very prominent data analysts like Sam Wang who is also known for election forecasting. A lot of people also bring up how 538 is now owned by ESPN, who are hemorrhaging money, and likely has an obligation to draw as many hits as possible. A model that shifts as quickly and significantly as theirs is just the ticket.



He didn't

I do remember reading Wang's criticism of Silver recently... Not sure I completely buy the argument that he's skewing polls to drive traffic to his site, but it's certainly possible.

Has Silver responded to any claims that his data is skewed at all?

 

[nature boy]

I mean you're right, but the campaign is already doing plenty in Florida, and Ohio, and North Carolina etc.

Camping out in one big swing state versus spreading yourself around leads to Gore/Kerry elections. Gore would have won with New Hampshire. Kerry would have won with some combination of New Mexico/Nevada, Iowa and Colorado, two Gore states and two states that were already trending Democratic and where Democrats won downballot contests that year (Sen. Reid and Sen. Salazar). Instead Gore focused on Florida, Florida, Florida and Kerry on Ohio, Ohio, Ohio.

Giving up in winnable states = dumb. Especially if you want to win by a large EV spread rather than just by the skin of your teeth.

Not saying giving up on Iowa, but Kaine's an asset to a demographic that doesn't exist in Iowa.

Send Bill, Warren, Sanders, not Kaine.

Portman is speaking Spanish in a state with 3.5% Hispanics. That's leaving nothing to chance.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Trump's total hatred of the constitution after 8 years of Republicans basically claiming the constitution was created by God is fun.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Those 6 EVs are irrelevant in her path to 270.

Putting Kaine there instead of Florida or Arizona is a big mistake IMO.

7:00 EST
VA
GA

7:30 EST
OH
NC

8:00 EST
FL
PA
MI
NH

9:00 EST
WI
MN
CO
AZ

10:00 EST
NV
IA

*you might have a point but I think unless FL is a blowout it won't be called right away. VA, PA, NC & NH if called right away or shortly thereafter will be all she needs. She will just be waiting for WI & MN to end it.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

I do remember reading Wang's criticism of Silver recently... Not sure I completely buy the argument that he's skewing polls to drive traffic to his site, but it's certainly possible.

Has Silver responded to any claims that his data is skewed at all?

I don't think anyone believes he is actually shifting the polls for hits. Just pointing out that their model is strange and that they are including polls, sometimes even weighing them heavily, that shouldn't be used by any credible aggregate. Their model also adjusts every single poll based on the recent national trends. Let's say there was a national poll that had Clinton ahead 8 in early August, well now if you look at it, it may read as Clinton +4. It's... weird. It also makes the VERY bold assumption that every single state in the country is moving with the national trends. The recent PA poll from an A-rated pollster seems shows otherwise.

Silver basically just says that it's easier to adjust for things and just include everything rather than cherry-pick. Which makes some level of sense but it means taking literally everything and throwing it into the model even if they are objectively total garbage polls that you won't see on Huffington Pollster or the Upshot and such.

 

[Oblivion]

This is great.

 

[whyamihere]

We should (hopefully) start getting Iowa data soon:

@ElectProject
Just submitted by order form for daily updates to the Iowa absentee ballot file. Hope to start generating statistics soon!

 

[Valhelm]

What the heck happened to my state (CO)? The Senate race favors the Democrat and it isn't even close. How did Trump flip it in the polls?

Latest poll somehow gives Trump a fat lead there, but it's pretty suspect.

 

[shinra-bansho]

He just capitalised on their entitled whininess and attention deficit though.

Just as Trump isn't making these deplorables deplorable. They already were.

 

[Oblivion]

What's the deal with Iowa?

I mean, yeah yeah I know, White people. But still, they voted for Obama twice!

 

[Maxim726X]

I don't think anyone believes he is actually shifting the polls for hits. Just pointing out that their model is strange and that they are including polls, sometimes even weighing them heavily, that shouldn't be used by any credible aggregate.

Silver basically just says that it's easier to adjust for things and just include everything rather than cherry-pick. Which makes some level of sense but it means taking literally everything and throwing it into the model even if they are objectively total garbage polls that you won't see on Huffington Pollster or the Upshot and such.

Well, if he's using polls of questionable quality and reliability (especially if he didn't use such polls previously) that's certainly suspect. I mean, his model works and is very well respected- Unless he used these polls previously I don't see why he would jeopardize the reputation of his site by including shit polls.

So people are mostly using Princeton as the go to aggregate right now?

 

[Bowdz]

What the heck happened to my state (CO)? The Senate race favors the Democrat and it isn't even close. How did Trump flip it in the polls?

Donny's 12 year old Colorado prodigy's putting in work.

 

[DedValve]

So having recently been more politically energized (or I guess awake would be more apt) and being a gay latino with a half black family in NYC what are some good ways to start getting more knowledgeable and active in politics?

I mean obviously I'm voting Hillary but what else could I be doing and what are some good resources to learn more about politics? I keep hearing that change happens from the bottom so local elections are important. I'd love to learn more about that.

 

[8 X 11 Printer Paper]

Welp started to see Trump yard signs around me, at least I'm in NY and I'm in Westchester (county above NYC) so he has no chances of winning either of those. Not surprised seeing this from my town, its...94% white (non-Hispanic) and has always had a Republican lean though it has begun to expire.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Whiny entitled Clinton supporters continuing to relitigate the primaries, yawn. Just dumb! Sanders has the very best supporters, the very best.

 

[nature boy]

7:00 EST
VA
GA

7:30 EST
OH

8:00 EST
FL
PA
MI
NH

9:00 EST
WI
MN
CO
AZ

10:00 EST
NV
IA

*you might have a point but I think unless FL is a blowout it won't be called right away. VA, PA & NH if called right or away or shortly thereafter will be all she needs. She will just be waiting for WI & MN to end it.

WI+MI+PA+VA+NC puts her over 270. No NC, will have to wait for CO.

So no need for Iowa, Ohio, Florida or NH.

 

[whyamihere]

What's the deal with Iowa?

I mean, yeah yeah I know, White people. But still, they voted for Obama twice!

It actually might have been somewhat important that Obama was from the midwest.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

What's the deal with Iowa?

I mean, yeah yeah I know, White people. But still, they voted for Obama twice!

I don't have it available but I read an article over the weekend that broke down why Iowa has been trending red in recent years.

Though I'd happily trade Iowa for North Carolina!

 

[DedValve]

Welp started to see Trump yard signs around me, at least I'm in NY and I'm in Westchester (county above NYC) so he has no chances of winning either of those. Not surprised seeing this from my town, its...94% white (non-Hispanic) and has always had a Republican lean though it has begun to expire.

Where in westchester are you from?

Yonkers here so its all Hillary, all the time.


It gets less Hillary further north you go.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Hillary is from the Midwest! (and the South, and the Northeast).

It's amusing that America is basically unchallenged world-wide (other than China) in terms of being a police state and yet Trump supporters still claim that they feel unsafe.

 

[8 X 11 Printer Paper]

Where in westchester are you from?

Yonkers here so its all Hillary, all the time.


It gets less Hillary further north you go.

Somers, so literally on the border of Putnam the one county in Southern NY that Romney won.

 

[DedValve]

Somers, so literally on the border of Putnam the one county in Southern NY that Romney won.

My sisters in Putnam. I live literally 2 blocks away from the Bronx so I always forget that theres a whole upper state of NY thats massive and nothing like the city at all.

EDIT: I haven't seen any political signs in her neighboorhood which shocked me as it looks like the place people would feel comfortable placing signs, maybe it'll happen closer to election? Don't know when people start trotting out the signs.