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[balladofwindfishes]

Even polls showing a historic white turnout still only showed Trump tied and not hitting 270.

Combine that with registration and early voter data not showing any surge developing at all, and it's hard to even consider there will be a massive wave of white people voters.

 

[benjipwns]

Megyn is too good for Fox News. She should jump to CNN.

No matter the truth of the first statement, the conclusion makes no sense. CNN? Get paid less for probably a worse timeslot and worse ratings? Have to be near Wolf Blitzer instead of that hunk Bret Baier.

 

[Anoregon]

Assuming that the inflated Johnson numbers are nevertrump republicans, is the expectation that they will actually vote for Trump when the day comes?

 

[benjipwns]

Assuming that the inflated Johnson numbers are nevertrump republicans, is the expectation that they will actually vote for Trump when the day comes?

Nevertrump Republicans just aren't going to vote.

Johnson's anti-war stances have been a deal breaker since day one. The Nevertrumpers are those "American Greatness" means wars idiots.

 

[Fragamemnon]

Assuming that the inflated Johnson numbers are nevertrump republicans, is the expectation that they will actually vote for Trump when the day comes?

I think they are actually independents that would normally never vote Democratic but can't vote for Trump because he's completely unqualified. Hillary almost always comes out better in H2H polls because of it.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

I wish Bill Plympton would do something with our candidates. All of them are ripe for his treatment.

Is he still around? Used to live his animation.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Assuming that the inflated Johnson numbers are nevertrump republicans, is the expectation that they will actually vote for Trump when the day comes?

Evidence suggests they're mostly potential Clinton voters

 

[RustyNails]

No matter the truth of the first statement, the conclusion makes no sense. CNN? Get paid less for probably a worse timeslot and worse ratings? Have to be near Wolf Blitzer instead of that hunk Bret Baier.

You're right. It was either CNN or msnbc in my head, and if you think Wolf smells bad...

She can always start her own AM radio talk show but she will have to debase herself by selling gold standard.

 

[Grief.exe]

Even polls showing a historic white turnout still only showed Trump tied and not hitting 270.

Combine that with registration and early voter data not showing any surge developing at all, and it's hard to even consider there will be a massive wave of white people voters.

If anything, early voter requests are showing traditional Republican having suppressed numbers over past years.

Assuming that the inflated Johnson numbers are nevertrump republicans, is the expectation that they will actually vote for Trump when the day comes?

My parents are life long Republicans and voting Johnson. To be honest they have very liberal views in many ways but don't understand how the parties have shifted over the years.

 

[RustyNails]

If anything, early voter requests are showing traditional Republican having suppressed numbers over past years.



My parents are life long Republicans and voting Johnson. To be honest they have very liberal views in many ways but don't understand how the parties have shifted over the years.

Did you try showing them the Libertarian platform?

https://www.lp.org/sample-libertarian-solutions

 

[Holmes]

Megyn Kelly doesn't necessarily need to move to another cable news network.

 

[benjipwns]

She can always start her own AM radio talk show but she will have to debase herself by selling gold standard.

She doesn't have the face for radio.

 

[Holmes]

Is +6 the highest Clinton's ever gotten in a Pennsylvania PPP poll?

 

[teiresias]

I'd argue the holdouts in this election prove this is not the case.

Meh, I almost view the holdouts, particularly the younger ones, as some kind of weird lefty-narcissism politics, where the liberal ideals are only supported in so much as they tend to help the holdout rather than them caring about the country or society as a whole and the effects of policy on the aggregate population of the US.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Those PPP polls are great. Wish Murphy was doing better but oh well.

Clinton turning in a solid performance at the town hall would likely solidify these numbers and maybe even improve them.

Nate's Nowcast has Clinton ahead in 322 EVs, as a couple of us were talking about pre-debate. I hope she gets back up in Iowa and Ohio and we're back to talking about Arizona and Georgia being on the table. I could see her latching onto a 6-8 point lead pretty soon.

 

[benjipwns]

I think the "holdouts" are loud and useful to certain groups but not very numerous.

It was the same with the PUMAs. It was the same with the Not Romneys.

There's general Clinton apathy that was disguised by there being zero serious primary challengers for nearly all of 2015 and Trump is a very different candidate (to put it lightly), if people remember Gary from four years ago they're more likely to say "oh yeah him" instead of being undecided or they pick him because he's the third name. They "pick" a candidate when asked to only decide between two more often than not in every poll.

The Bernie holdouts aren't going to turn out to vote anyway, they might not even have for Bernie himself as the candidate.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Millennial voters, after supporting Bernie Sanders, are in favor of repealing Dodd-Frank I guess?

 

[Paskil]

Nevertrump Republicans just aren't going to vote.

Johnson's anti-war stances have been a deal breaker since day one. The Nevertrumpers are those "American Greatness" means wars idiots.

I assume if he's on their ballot, they will vote for McMuffin.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Millennial voters, after supporting Bernie Sanders, are in favor of repealing Dodd-Frank I guess?

Part of the problem is Clinton campaign hasn't done a good job highlighting those Trump positions. They have mostly gone after the he is dangerous aspect.

Trump has a lot of economically unpopular ideas that Clinton campaign should highlight.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Part of the problem is Clinton campaign hasn't done a good job highlighting those Trump positions. They have mostly gone after the he is dangerous aspect.

Trump has a lot of economically unpopular ideas that Clinton campaign should highlight.

Honestly people don't care about specifics. My district voted for Obama, Clinton is crushing Trump in internal polling and is represented by a Republican who votes no on everything. He was swept in during a Dem wave (08) and hasn't ever even come close to losing.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...t-they-need-to-register/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

Missing uneducated white voters could singlehandedly win Trump the election. Like the millennials, white voters without a college degree do not show up in satisfactory numbers for the GOP. And their possible surge is not being reflected in registration data.


This is why a ground game is important.

Too bad Trump doesn't have a ground game.

 

[benjipwns]

McMullin has been giving worse interviews than Gary. They're just so bland and repetitive, at least Gary can be interesting and Weld is generally there to be fun. And Stein gets arrested.

I'm the only one, I'm the only one, I'm the only one who has, I'm the only one who is, I'm the only one who has, Trump's a liberal, I'm the only conservative, I'm the only one with foreign policy experience, I'm the only one who has.

From this week:
FOX: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqY9-Q4AVSE
MSNBC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhMQiOrOJEw
CNN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCyhPSerwxU

And he's fallen to arguing that his intent is to win one state and create a tie and then win it in the House.

 

[Cybit]

Too bad Trump doesn't have a ground game.

Thank god the RNC never took Cruz's ground game and used it for Trump.

 

[Holmes]

benji, you watch McMuffin interviews? What a waste. Might as well interview some random guy on the street.

 

[plagiarize]

McMullin has been giving worse interviews than Gary. They're just so bland and repetitive, at least Gary can be interesting and Weld is generally there to be fun. And Stein gets arrested.

I'm the only one, I'm the only one, I'm the only one who has, I'm the only one who is, I'm the only one who has, Trump's a liberal, I'm the only conservative, I'm the only one with foreign policy experience, I'm the only one who has.

From this week:
FOX: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqY9-Q4AVSE
MSNBC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhMQiOrOJEw
CNN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCyhPSerwxU

And he's fallen to arguing that his intent is to win one state and create a tie and then win it in the House.

What state is he best positioned to win, that prevents Trump and Clinton hitting 270? I'm guessing this is not remotely feasible anywhere.

 

[RustyNails]

benji, you watch McMuffin interviews? What a waste. Might as well interview some random guy on the street.

Seriously. Whats next, Vermin Supreme?

 

[benjipwns]

Seriously. Whats next, Vermin Supreme?

No, I watched those in the past, he's not running anymore.

He was better when he ran in the Democratic Primaries in 2012, he's too much of a show off these days: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgDb4SJn0fs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9waU_W3M68

Though he did meet Donald Trump Jr. this year: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bmPN_cAcgw

What state is he best positioned to win, that prevents Trump and Clinton hitting 270? I'm guessing this is not remotely feasible anywhere.

He's only on the ballot in eleven states lol

Arkansas, Colorado,[100] Idaho,[101] Iowa,[102] Kentucky,[103] Louisiana,[104] Minnesota[A], New Mexico,[105] South Carolina,[106] Utah, Virginia,

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Benji, you need to watch some Gloria La Riva interviews about her love for North Korea.

 

[Fragamemnon]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...t-they-need-to-register/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

Missing uneducated white voters could singlehandedly win Trump the election. Like the millennials, white voters without a college degree do not show up in satisfactory numbers for the GOP. And their possible surge is not being reflected in registration data.


This is why a ground game is important.

Republicans have never had a major slice of their electorate not have traits favorable to reliably voting. They haven't had to run registration campaigns at scale, and they just aren't good at it. The GOP turnout machine, what still exists of it, has always been good at turning out likely voter pools with very good results. Very different from the Dem machine that is focused more on taking marginal voters and trying to squeeze out as many votes as possible.

 

[Teggy]

Well this Hoboken coverage that hasn't offered any new information in hours is using up valuable time for Cuban scandal news.

 

[Holmes]

Calling Corbyn a world leader's a stretch. I'd tell Stein to try harder but shit like this is pretty much all she's capable of.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Gloria La Riva is seriously the best.

US govt demonizes #DPRK North Korea to justify its illegal, dangerous division & military occupation of #Korea @pslweb @mikeprysner @0_1s4

https://twitter.com/GloriaLaRiva/status/557075673756749825

I need her thoughts on the Holodomor.

 

[RustyNails]

Trump blowing up on his surrogates in the conference call is really something. He is mad at them for not specifically saying that he lost, but that Trump is being coached for the next debate. How outrageous!

In a conference call with surrogates Wednesday afternoon, Trump aides made clear the Republican nominee is upset that his allies publicly acknowledged they pushed him to change his preparation and tactics before his next bout with Hillary Clinton. And he wants them to stop it immediately.

Unbelievable. His ego is shattered.

 

[Slayven]

Benji, you need to watch some Gloria La Riva interviews about her love for North Korea.

Where do you guys find these people?

 

[benjipwns]

Benji, you need to watch some Gloria La Riva interviews about her love for North Korea.

That's what I have Jason for.

DEBATE ANALYSIS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAUNo4NEr90

 

[Slayven]

That's what I have Jason for.

DEBATE ANALYSIS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAUNo4NEr90

I always feel like the ghost of McCarthy is going to haunt me after reading your posts

 

[thebloo]

Thank god the RNC never took Cruz's ground game and used it for Trump.

Trump's bluster, Kasich's conservativeness and Cruz's ground game...horror. Luckily that's not a thing.

 

[hipsterpants]

Trump blowing up on his surrogates in the conference call is really something. He is mad at them for not specifically saying that he lost, but that Trump is being coached for the next debate. How outrageous!

Unbelievable. His ego is shattered.

Did the debate break Trump? I don't think I'm ready for round 2.

 

[Boke1879]

Trump blowing up on his surrogates in the conference call is really something. He is mad at them for not specifically saying that he lost, but that Trump is being coached for the next debate. How outrageous!

Unbelievable. His ego is shattered.

So he's mad they said that he'll prepare better?

 

[tuffy]

Trump blowing up on his surrogates in the conference call is really something. He is mad at them for not specifically saying that he lost, but that Trump is being coached for the next debate. How outrageous!

Unbelievable. His ego is shattered.

It's hard to spin some sort of victory based on a bunch of phony online polls when his surrogates are admitting he needs to do better the next time. They're mixed messages from a dysfunctional campaign that can't stay on the same page.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Gloria La Riva defended the USSR without bringing up the Holodomor as an issue they thought they needed to defend so that's kind of a thought by omission:

http://marxistupdate.blogspot.com/2011/12/in-defense-of-ussr.html

 

[Box of Kittens]

McMullin has been giving worse interviews than Gary. They're just so bland and repetitive, at least Gary can be interesting and Weld is generally there to be fun. And Stein gets arrested.

I'm the only one, I'm the only one, I'm the only one who has, I'm the only one who is, I'm the only one who has, Trump's a liberal, I'm the only conservative, I'm the only one with foreign policy experience, I'm the only one who has.

From this week:
FOX: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqY9-Q4AVSE
MSNBC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhMQiOrOJEw
CNN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCyhPSerwxU

And he's fallen to arguing that his intent is to win one state and create a tie and then win it in the House.

Even by third party standards, this guy is irrelevant.

 

[thebloo]

Did the debate break Trump? I don't think I'm ready for round 2.

I'm equal parts curious and scared for the third. He's going to be desperate and ready for the Hail Mary.

Which in his case is calling Mary a cunt, probably.

 

[Effect]

I wonder if trump is going to swing so hard the other way that xanax trump is going to appear and come off of completely unengaged and uncaring in the setting you should not be. He seems incapable of finding a middle ground. It's either sedated or over the top buffoon. Those are the two modes he switched from and to in the first debate.

I'm still of the opinion that if the second debate goes bad for him and no reason to think it won't to be honest he's not showing up for the third debate. There is no way in hell he can even attempt to BS foreign policy questions and his team has to know that. He could make it past the opening statement but upon follow up questions it will be a repeat of the debate that just happen if not worse. You can't just memorize some locations for that. You need to have an understanding of how things work on some level.

 

[Geg]

So he's mad they said that he'll prepare better?

More like he's mad that they're implying that he needs to prepare better & isn't already a perfect debater

 

[Orniletter]

I'm going through the bebate again and I'm really enjoying the actual content of what Clinton had to say.

The question "are police officers inherently prejudiced against black people", which was an utter bombshell in hiding, was so elegantly answered.

She's so good.

 

[Aaron Strife]

So he's mad they said that he'll prepare better?

He probably doesn't like the notion that he needs help for anything.

 

[Piecake]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...t-they-need-to-register/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

Missing uneducated white voters could singlehandedly win Trump the election. Like the millennials, white voters without a college degree do not show up in satisfactory numbers for the GOP. And their possible surge is not being reflected in registration data.


This is why a ground game is important.

There Aren’t Enough White Voters for GOP Win

In 1980, Ronald Reagan won 56 percent of white voters and won a landslide victory of 44 states. In 2012, Mitt Romney won 59 percent of whites and lost with 24 states. But it’s a frequent talking point that white voter enthusiasm was higher for Reagan and turnout down for Romney. Not so. In 1980, 59 percent of whites voted and in 2012, 64 percent of whites voted.

But still the myth survives that there are these masses of untapped white voters just waiting for the right candidate. Call it the Lost Tribes of the Amazon theory: If only you paddle far enough up the river and bang the drum loud enough, these previously hidden voters will gather to the river’s edge. The simple truth is that there simply aren’t enough white voters in the America of 2016 to win a national election without also getting a substantial share of the non-white vote. Romney won 17 percent of the non-white vote. Depending on white voter turnout, a Republican needs between 25 percent and 35 percent of the non-white vote to win. RealClearPolitics has a handy tool so you can play with the percentages.

 

[Slayven]

So he's mad they said that he'll prepare better?

He probably thinks it makes him look weak. And that is unforgivable to his ego

 

[RustyNails]

So he's mad they said that he'll prepare better?

Yes. Imagine Kim Jong Un in this situation, and if one of his lackeys said the Dear Leader that never poops and hits hole-in-one every time in golf needs "help" with prep.